I'm not going to say the long term picture is looking great to me.
No, it is not. See
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=197014.0 for some thoughts.
Yet - the BTC seems resilient. It actually managed to improve a bit. Short term, that is.
I went long, after staying on the sidelines. Since the reward/risk trade-off is now better.
(In fact, I re-entered the market at about the same price
after fees as the price at which I left).
What to expect then? Well, I am looking for a short leg up now that the short term downward sloping trendline has been broken.
See the chart:
1. Notice how it bounced off the $123 level today. This is the 50% correction level from the last $166->$79 leg down. We've also got a level of resitance at $125. Looking for symmetry in the market, taking the 0.618 x up-leg 1 would produce $126 as a target. Pretty much near one another... So expect tough "work" at that level.
2. Going forward, if the level breaks (most likely IMHO) the next level sits at $132-133: the two fibonacci-levels from the previous decline converge there. (Meaning: the two fib-retracement levels from the leg $266->$50 and $166->$79). Interesting. Not a point of symmetry, though, so once $125 is cleared I would just expect some temporary resitance here.
3. 100% symmetry for the legs 1 / legs 2 would get us around $143. Intererting level, since it coincides with the starting point orf the recent violent downturn ($147 -> $79).
4. Coul we go higher? Yes, of course, BTC always can
but I suspect we'd be getting into parabolic events by that time. Maximum (on extension 1.382) would get us to $ 161,- and former resistance sits at $166.
http://imageshack.us/a/img28/4590/chart20130510.jpgSo my best guess would be to see $143/$147. From a market symmetry standpoint of view.
Yet, the market may decide otherwise, and at each of the levels the market will provide you more info. So let's just see what happens at each of these levels. As of writing this, I see a small pop-down towards 117.6 (after hitting the first level). Looks like a normal retracement to me.
Once the targets are met (max $166) I would be looking for downward scenarios within the bigger picture I outlined.
"And hey... let's be careful out there..."
