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Author Topic: To those buying 5830's for resale  (Read 5255 times)
tehcodez
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June 20, 2011, 09:01:25 PM
 #41

Assuming 300mhash/s, bitcoin price of $17 and difficulty of 877k, a 5830 will create ~$188 per month at current difficulty (wont last that long - just an example), $141 per month at the next difficulty level, and about $103 per month at 1,500,000 difficulty.

If you buy today, it will pay itself off if you bought at $109 or even $160. More so if BTC price rises. While no difficulty level at this point will generally last a month (2 weeks or less actually), the rises aren't steep enough to make mining unprofitable. Even after you gain back 100% of the buy price at 1,5m difficulty, you will be gaining $80 per month profit at current prices.

Worth it with a single card? If you are just some random gamer then sure. Don't count on it for a living though. At 2 million difficulty you will be making $50 bucks per month at current prices.

At 3m difficulty, either prices will go up or ~90% of casual miners will give up and thus drive the difficulty down to about 2.4m.

Jack of Diamonds, I respect you for being the FIRST PERSON SO FAR TODAY to actually argue with the numbers themselves, rather than just shooting the messenger.

I personally don't think 300 MH/s is a reasonable expectation. Overclocking carries risks, and not every card can reach 300. I had problems at 292 with a Sapphire card (which are the best, BTW). AND if you're overclocking you're also using more than 160W, so the greater electricity usage must be subtracted at the other end.

Bitcoins aren't $17 at the moment -- we should go by the current price to be fair. Naysayers could just as easily calculate at $10, while you calculate at $17. Maybe the answer is to show the figures for $10, $15, $20, and $25? Let the would-be buyer make the choice about what he thinks the market will do. So if he loses his money, he'll have no one to blame but himself. But at least he'll know what he's getting himself into.

How many BTC are you saying they'll make per day? According to Deepbit's estimator, which I believe takes Pool commissions into account, one would make 0.30 BTC/day at a hashrate of 290MH/s.

.30 BTC/day times $17 (a generous figure -- which I'm sure we both hope for. I'm a miner myself) is $5.10 a day. But difficulty will go up before any cards bought today could go online. It will be at least 30% (this much is fact). So your monthly projection is already way off.

Monthly projections are *very, very* deceptive because they always fail to take Difficulty increases into consideration. And difficulty increases are a fact of life. It's foolish to deny them or treat them like they don't exist.

Matthew


I'll shoot the messenger. Stop being a troll/douche and freaking people out about your perception of the current numbers of one possible function of the cards, and leave it here. Not only do you troll your own topic, but you troll all the 5830 postings out there. It's not like its mines btc exclusively, and who knows what the numbers will be like in X months, where mining does or doesnt pay off. You're no different than (BUY! SELL! MINE! DON'T MINE! THE SKY IS FALLING! I'M BEING USEFUL!).

IN THE END, it's still a decent card, and for a decent price, it mines well and plays great (and alot better than most of the comparable cards out there). You can have your opinion, we don't have to respect it (especially when you act like a hypocritical troll).
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Jack of Diamonds
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June 20, 2011, 09:03:02 PM
 #42

I covered the issue of difficulty in that post, even taking in account the profit at 1.5m and 2m.
Also, $5.10 per day is still $153 per month. At the next difficulty level the user will create about $122 worth of bitcoins per month, and even at 1.5m about $100 dollars per month.

Those are for arguments sake. In reality, expect difficulty rises at least every 14 days or more often. This could change though if difficulty rises too high.

I'd say 3 million is already too high at current prices because it will make mining unprofitable for nearly every casual miner, even those who freeload electricity.

1f3gHNoBodYw1LLs3ndY0UanYB1tC0lnsBec4USeYoU9AREaCH34PBeGgAR67fx
Icy-
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June 20, 2011, 09:04:38 PM
 #43

If you review some of this guys posts, all he posts is negative trolling comments. I really think this guy may just be a pimple faced nerd trying to feel big on the internet.

Anyway I'm one of his victims where he trashed my thread not only with his trolling, but ignorance as well.

http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=19643.0

When you want to sell a car for $3000 your always going to list it for more, same concept here. I never expected $160, I stated anyone can make a offer.

I really need some of this...
http://www.idratherbecrawling.ca/pics/TrollSprayBillyMays.jpg
tehcodez
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June 20, 2011, 09:07:17 PM
 #44

Yeah, I think the troll started this thread in response to yours, and his mom buying back the cards he was selling for a large loss.
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June 20, 2011, 09:12:13 PM
 #45

I love theorycrafting when people project profitability months ahead based on a fixed BTC value.  If you're going to get all goofy and assign it a fixed value, why not $50 or $83.26 per BTC?  Difficulty can be predicted, with a fair degree of certainty.  Exchange rates can not.

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AngelusWebDesign
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June 20, 2011, 09:15:28 PM
 #46

Those are for arguments sake. In reality, expect difficulty rises at least every 14 days or more often.

Try 8 days -- that's been the reality for some time now...
tehcodez
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June 20, 2011, 09:17:14 PM
 #47

Ok...8 days...4 days....1 day...constant difficulty increase!

Still, troll, what's the exchange rate? What's the pool like? Are you mining bitcoin? Are you mining namecoin? Are you mining newcoin? Are you playing COD4 on awesome?

A card is still worth a card, troll.
Jack of Diamonds
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June 20, 2011, 09:18:11 PM
 #48

I love theorycrafting when people project profitability months ahead based on a fixed BTC value.  If you're going to get all goofy and assign it a fixed value, why not $50 or $83.26 per BTC?  Difficulty can be predicted, with a fair degree of certainty.  Exchange rates can not.

A 30 day average is a good starting point. BTC is still sold and bought even if Mt. Gox is down.
I don't understand why so many people fail to realize this.

Go to bitcoincharts.com and see that thousands of bitcoins are still being traded in other places.

1f3gHNoBodYw1LLs3ndY0UanYB1tC0lnsBec4USeYoU9AREaCH34PBeGgAR67fx
AngelusWebDesign
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June 20, 2011, 09:25:40 PM
 #49

Ok...8 days...4 days....1 day...constant difficulty increase!

Still, troll, what's the exchange rate? What's the pool like? Are you mining bitcoin? Are you mining namecoin? Are you mining newcoin? Are you playing COD4 on awesome?

A card is still worth a card, troll.

I know you are but what am I  Roll Eyes

What are we, in 3rd grade?

Of course, you were probably in 3rd grade when Call of Duty was first released...
Icy-
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June 20, 2011, 09:37:29 PM
 #50

Ok...8 days...4 days....1 day...constant difficulty increase!

Still, troll, what's the exchange rate? What's the pool like? Are you mining bitcoin? Are you mining namecoin? Are you mining newcoin? Are you playing COD4 on awesome?

A card is still worth a card, troll.

I know you are but what am I  Roll Eyes

What are we, in 3rd grade?

Of course, you were probably in 3rd grade when Call of Duty was first released...
http://watchplayread.com/files/2009/08/DoubleFacePalm.jpg
Chucksta
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June 20, 2011, 10:00:49 PM
 #51

 Tongue burp  Grin
Synaptic
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June 20, 2011, 10:01:03 PM
 #52

Ok...8 days...4 days....1 day...constant difficulty increase!

Still, troll, what's the exchange rate? What's the pool like? Are you mining bitcoin? Are you mining namecoin? Are you mining newcoin? Are you playing COD4 on awesome?

A card is still worth a card, troll.

I know you are but what am I  Roll Eyes

What are we, in 3rd grade?

Of course, you were probably in 3rd grade when Call of Duty was first released...



OH SNAP!
Lightspeed
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June 20, 2011, 10:13:56 PM
 #53

Star Trek FTW! Cheesy

Overclocking = money? Greatest full time hobby ever!
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Sukrim
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June 20, 2011, 10:53:24 PM
 #54

Just beat them with data! Put up some nice graphs + calculations and let everyone make up their own mind, if a 5830 @ 170USD is really worth it (hint: It isn't!).

https://bitfinex.com <-- leveraged trading of BTCUSD, LTCUSD and LTCBTC (long and short) - 10% discount on fees for the first 30 days with this refcode: x5K9YtL3Zb
Mail me at Bitmessage: BM-BbiHiVv5qh858ULsyRDtpRrG9WjXN3xf
tehcodez
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June 20, 2011, 11:01:39 PM
 #55

$170, probably not. $109/$100/$125/$85, troll-proof.
detroit
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June 21, 2011, 12:35:29 AM
 #56

At the risk of being thrown onto the spit to roast with the OP, I thought it was a good post.
With so much talk about the scarcity and great value of the 5830, it can be easy for one to get carried away and jump on any one that comes along.  Now there's more information out there.

Tradehill.com referral code: TH-R1494
Please consider using it if I've said something useful!
Fakeman
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June 21, 2011, 01:24:26 AM
 #57

Who's the bigger troll, the guy who starts a "troll thread" or the guy who comes along and trolls it? Yes, paying $50 or $60 more for the card will mean paying it off later, or never as in the case of the casual miner who loses interest. No, there's nothing wrong with reselling the cards for whatever people will pay, as long as you're not misrepresenting the product. Yes, it's probably debatable whether 300 Mhash is a reasonable expectation, although 320 is easily possible with at least some cards. And no, the 5830 doesn't have the best power efficiency of cards in its price range, although it's hard to beat in that price range for Mhash per dollar spent.

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minerX
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June 21, 2011, 02:33:59 AM
 #58

You really cheapen the meaning of troll by throwing it around at anyone who disagrees with you.

Go ahead, think that we're still in a manic bubble -- I'll stay over here in reality, thanks. You buy that 5830 for $160, and I'll buy it off you for $70 in a few weeks.


You are definitely a troll.
computerparts
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June 21, 2011, 08:01:10 AM
 #59

$160 for a 5830 isn't near as bad as the greedy people that want $300+ for a 5870
sir murray
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June 21, 2011, 12:44:31 PM
 #60

Angelus, to me at least, seems to stick to posting fact or math based information, which can only lead to everyone making better decisions, and yet everyone here seems to think he's a troll because the conclusions he comes to, based on empirical data, are not in line with everyone's expectations. The post of Angelus have been useful to me several times. If anything, the people attacking him without discrediting any of his arguments are the trolls.
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