My bitcoin speculation for August... Only rise is possible...

[pooya87]

we all know that this dip is because of the fear of August 1st and the possibility of a chain split because of the deadline that BIP148 has set.
while many believe that BIP148 is going to fail, i say although it will fail but it is not a failure. the best result of it was the SegWit2x which currently has 91% of the miners support. whereas BIP141 (SegWit) has 46% support.

now the speculation.

i say we are going to have SegWit activated on August 1st by SegWit2x (which needs only 80% support and now has 91% support) and that will lead to a big price recovery and another bull run.
we saw the same thing about activation of SegWit on litecoin. they delayed the activation as much as possible, also caused a big dip after LTC's big rise and then it was activated with nearly 100% support and price jumped another time.

this following chart is happening all over again. this is the same fear. the fear of a hard fork and a split. the difference is that the picture below was because of BU split and now it is the SegWit split. and both of them are because of drama and had a very small chance of coming to reality.



i will expect $3000 be broken if things go as planned. buy the dips then

but it will probably only last about 4-5 months until the second deadline which will be 6 months after activation of SegWit (in 2018). and we may see another one of these.

now by that time either SegWit has lived up to the promise (and it is good enough time to see) and they give up on the 2MB hard fork or we will see the drama all over again over hard forking to a 2 MB base block size.

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[DaMut]

we all know that this dip is because of the fear of August 1st and the possibility of a chain split because of the deadline that BIP148 has set.
while many believe that BIP148 is going to fail, i say although it will fail but it is not a failure. the best result of it was the SegWit2x which currently has 91% of the miners support. whereas BIP141 (SegWit) has 46% support.

now the speculation.

i say we are going to have SegWit activated on August 1st by SegWit2x (which needs only 80% support and now has 91% support) and that will lead to a big price recovery and another bull run.
we saw the same thing about activation of SegWit on litecoin. they delayed the activation as much as possible, also caused a big dip after LTC's big rise and then it was activated with nearly 100% support and price jumped another time.

this following chart is happening all over again. this is the same fear. the fear of a hard fork and a split. the difference is that the picture below was because of BU split and now it is the SegWit split. and both of them are because of drama and had a very small chance of coming to reality.



i will expect $3000 be broken if things go as planned. buy the dips then

but it will probably only last about 4-5 months until the second deadline which will be 6 months after activation of SegWit (in 2018). and we may see another one of these.

now by that time either SegWit has lived up to the promise (and it is good enough time to see) and they give up on the 2MB hard fork or we will see the drama all over again over hard forking to a 2 MB base block size.

How about 'buy on rumours sell on news '?
From my perspective when the news came up everything will be dump,just like before and other project(altcoin project).it happened because you can see fudster and shiller in action when the news came up,it's like a fudster and shiller are an organization created by a rich and smart people to make an issue regarding future development.
And many newbies will fall from their tricks,for example an issue for future development when gavin out from the team ? You can see fudster and shiller everywhere with their logical explanation.
In my opinion,bitcoin will rise in the future even we get dump hard this time (which is i hope we dont need to see it right now)

[talkbitcoin]

if price can keep up being above $2000 until August 1 or at least until things become clearer about who supports what for real as we get closer to that date, i can see a big rise happening.

[veleten]

lets wait and see,it is impossible to predict what happens after August 1
the best thing to do is make sure you are in control of your coin,have private keys and not keeping them somewhere online on an exchange
if things go as planned,provided we do not drop under 1500-1600$ we could see the dominant fork gain momentum and the price go up 3k and higher

[7jaka7]

Is it possible that we see similar thing as in 2013/2014? When price reached ATH it went down slowly for almost 2 years.
After BIP141 Bitcoin will be improved but still this isn't what people see. IMO we won't see big increase in demand after fork. But price should raise slowly in long term.

[phuclzu12]

If use Elliot Wave in mid term, I can see we are in wave B and bearish trend still continue, at now just bullish trap if have and the price can falldown to $1200 is possible. Maybe in August 1st, not have breakout and big breakdown can replace it

[buwaytress]

I somewhat agree that "we are here again", except that I still think "we are on the way here, just not quite yet". Once BTC drops below $2,000, then I'll firmly believe we are "there". Trade volume is still thin, I think a lot of traders were caught out this week and will not be ready to re-enter until they can see the outcome post Aug.

Neverthelses, whatever negative outcome that might happen post August seems to be slowly pricing in already and I fully expect only a matter of weeks to readjust to pre-Aug price.

[Sweetbtc]

I somewhat agree that "we are here again", except that I still think "we are on the way here, just not quite yet". Once BTC drops below $2,000, then I'll firmly believe we are "there". Trade volume is still thin, I think a lot of traders were caught out this week and will not be ready to re-enter until they can see the outcome post Aug.

Neverthelses, whatever negative outcome that might happen post August seems to be slowly pricing in already and I fully expect only a matter of weeks to readjust to pre-Aug price.

u r 100% right but what to do
it happens even for bitcoins but I believe the small chain will join the big chain later
so by end of Aug there will be again only one chain .let us hope for good things to happen

[Pierre 2]

I agree with this post. I really don't understand why people are so nervous about segwit.
It will work as intended, price will stay strong and rise will follow.

[Tyrantt]

if price can keep up being above $2000 until August 1 or at least until things become clearer about who supports what for real as we get closer to that date, i can see a big rise happening.

Why not even if it falls below? bitcoin went from $1700 to $3000 in a few months so that's not the problem. But tbh I'm hoping for the price to drop as much as it can.

My speculation? There's probably going to be a dump at the end of july and if I were holding some bigger amount, I can surely say that I'd be selling unleast 40-50% of my bitcoins before segwit. So the price might fall for a couple of hundreds of dollars but in the next week or two will start going up significantly and if it does, that's going to cause a massive buying of bitcoins.

[pooya87]

I somewhat agree that "we are here again", except that I still think "we are on the way here, just not quite yet". Once BTC drops below $2,000, then I'll firmly believe we are "there". Trade volume is still thin, I think a lot of traders were caught out this week and will not be ready to re-enter until they can see the outcome post Aug.

Neverthelses, whatever negative outcome that might happen post August seems to be slowly pricing in already and I fully expect only a matter of weeks to readjust to pre-Aug price.

yeah, well i mostly believe that round numbers such as the $2000 have always been a big psychological barriers. people always have these numbers as a price to sell above while it is not yet reached and they also have it as a target to buy under when price is above it and has a chance of dropping. and that usually makes a bigger resistance than normal.

[d5000]

How about 'buy on rumours sell on news '?

I think with Segwit it's different. That's because many actors that want to invest in Bitcoin are observing the Segwit battle. If, and only if, everything goes well in July/August then Bitcoin has done a big step forward on the road to better scalability, and so they can invest without having to fear a chain split with all the hassle and turbulences associated.

As the Segwit2x agreement can literally fail the last day (if some big pool like Bitmain reverts to the old code), "rumours" aren't worth much. Even when BIP91 is locked in, a 51% miner cartel could still go back to the old client and BIP91 would be worthless. So only when the 95% for Segwit are "in" definitively, then investors can sleep quietly.

So overall I agree with the OP - if Segwit comes, August should be bullish. In late September/October I expect the next crash

[pooya87]

How about 'buy on rumours sell on news '?

I think with Segwit it's different. That's because many actors that want to invest in Bitcoin are observing the Segwit battle. If, and only if, everything goes well in July/August then Bitcoin has done a big step forward on the road to better scalability, and so they can invest without having to fear a chain split with all the hassle and turbulences associated.

generally speaking, based on the interactions that i have with many people regarding bitcoin, i see majority of people are concerned about all these debates and the internal "war" that is going on. it has slowed the progress drastically.
they are scared when they hear all these acronyms that people passionately use and all the risks they are talking about.
and that is a lot of money (in total) that we are talking about! and it is waiting to come in... they just need a glimmer of hope...

[harizen]

Nice technical analysis you got there and let's see few days from now, what really will happened.

We all know that bitcoin already experienced lots of major FUD that pulls the price down and then it can recover but this time the thing that will happened on August 1 is completely different on that past event/scenarios/fud that created a panic to everyone especially the average bitcoiner.

Bitcoin price landed several times on a so called correction price range and sometimes this was used a basis for some speculations. Anyways Im with the idea of still holding bitcoin and I want to see the reward of taking the risk here.

[d5000]

generally speaking, based on the interactions that i have with many people regarding bitcoin, i see majority of people are concerned about all these debates and the internal "war" that is going on. it has slowed the progress drastically.
they are scared when they hear all these acronyms that people passionately use and all the risks they are talking about.

That's something I experienced, too. And there is more: Most users do not have a position in this debate. I have heard people not understanding why Bitcoin Unlimited is not universally accepted because they don't understand the dangers that could emerge -  and Segwit or even UASF is already much too difficult for most.

they just need a glimmer of hope...

Unfortunately, hope is not enough ... because there is real risk, but there are also good chances that everything goes well, at least now in July/August. I think the best advanced users can do is to explain the major points of the coming events in ELI5-manner - above all in non-english languages there are practically no neutral posts available, only some exchanges are doing the job and informing their clients a little bit about the possible chain split scenarios.

[Esphere.in]

I do like the speculation part about how much the price can go on an upward ride,but what i would like to know is that how much price it can go down,will it go down below $1800,will there be a panic situation and so on because i do not want to risk my money if there is a possibility that the price would go down drastically from this situation.

[batang_bitcoin]

I agree with this post. I really don't understand why people are so nervous about segwit.
It will work as intended, price will stay strong and rise will follow.

FUDs are spread everywhere so I don't understand either why there's a need to panic. But as long as the price is remaining constant and stable at $2,000 why there's a need to panic. Sell if you want profit but stay with some bitcoins on your cold storage. I will personally believe that this is like just what happened before when the price is falling.

[talkbitcoin]

if price can keep up being above $2000 until August 1 or at least until things become clearer about who supports what for real as we get closer to that date, i can see a big rise happening.

Why not even if it falls below? bitcoin went from $1700 to $3000 in a few months so that's not the problem. But tbh I'm hoping for the price to drop as much as it can.

mostly because i don't think the chances of going below $2000 are that high. but i am not denying it may be possible either.
but also i said it because if price falls below $2000 to something like $1600-$1700 the recovery is going to be very hard and it will take a much longer time to first break the previous support which is now a resistance. so the big rise will be delayed in case of a bigger drop.

[Kemarit]

if price can keep up being above $2000 until August 1 or at least until things become clearer about who supports what for real as we get closer to that date, i can see a big rise happening.

Why not even if it falls below? bitcoin went from $1700 to $3000 in a few months so that's not the problem. But tbh I'm hoping for the price to drop as much as it can.

mostly because i don't think the chances of going below $2000 are that high. but i am not denying it may be possible either.
but also i said it because if price falls below $2000 to something like $1600-$1700 the recovery is going to be very hard and it will take a much longer time to first break the previous support which is now a resistance. so the big rise will be delayed in case of a bigger drop.

Dropping below $2000 is very possible as we are currently seeing a big dip in the last couple of days. Currently we are standing at $2200 and we might see it goes down again in the next succeeding days. I hope others would see this drop as time to buy back bitcoin again, otherwise we are going to see below $2000 nearing the Segwit2x activation. So much talk and discussion has been around regarding what's gonna happen after, I remain optimistic that even though we may see a significant drop, bitcoin can recover and the price could rise up to $3000 or more.

[fabiorem]

I think the botton is 1800. Probably in two weeks.

There's no way to reach 1000, it would be too much money going out.