The real crash starts after Aug 1st

[ptc2004]

Probably there will be a big crash but if this won't happen I think Bitcoin can reach the 3k cap pretty easily.

[Zero1One0]

I understand what you are saying.

I've traded stocks also and know how "Earnings exceed expectations" but yet the stock goes down anyways since most of the retail market is in it, kind of like TSLA or AAPL.

The problem with your theory is that its never correct all the time. Your theory works half the time. Sometimes the retail market gets screwed, sometimes it doesn't.

So even if you take contrarian positions everytime, you will lose money anyways.

Yes on Aug 1st there can be GREAT news, and BTC can go down due to manipulation.

Or the exact opposite can happen. So how exactly do you trade it to make money? You can't.

Its no different than a moving average indicator.

Maybe I've been lucky then.... almost every great score I've had was betting against the herd (and far more winners than losers there, even doing it blind).
Doing great work on fundamentals would bite me every time.... Every time!!!  T/A on the other hand was 55%-45% for straight T/A, and 70%-30% when using systems and indicators I program.
I've been lobbying my stock program developer to integrate a Crypto data feed into their software.... I sure hope they do it soon. They are very hesitant to add them. Like it's a fad or something.

I've been in some great stock trading rooms over the years though... learned from some really incredible people (and paid a lot to learn from them). It is not a flip of the coin by any means.
Best trader I ever had the pleasure of knowing was a higher up at Morgan Stanley... he was beyond incredible. He was almost exclusively a contra-sentiment trader. Pure instinct, and he was right 80% of the time, just by "feel". One of the only people I would call "naturally gifted" when it came to day trading.

But on the "how exactly do you trade it to make money?", oh I can answer that no problem..... Use a really good Revert To Mean, and you're ok 80% of the time.... but only if you're fast and not greedy. Doesn't matter which direction the movement is: and with the volatility these coins have.... it's a dream come true to me.

-DE

Thanks DE for sharing your thoughts. While I am still a noob at the crypto trading. I've been trading for more than a decade and have seen my share of recessions cycles.

Given the sudden rise this year of crypto, I think it still has to shed 20-40% and the approaching August 1 could be the trigger, maybe not exactly on that date but it will happen.

My advise, if you are not a very good trader. HODL. If you think that crypto will be mainstream in the next 2-3 years to come, especially those coins or token that have good products that will come out late this year or early next year. Buy some more and hodl!

It really takes a lot of resolve to hodl if you see a stock or whatever coin you are holding fall down by 60-80%, but if you know that it has a good management and dev team + community behind it. It will come back up.

It takes grit to weather a violent storm but rewards are enormous.






Remember: Cash is also a position. I'm saving my Fiat for now and will buy some crypto if there is a good dip. Whatever it is that I currently have in crypto will just stay there, probably put it to work via Proof of Stake to make good use of it while waiting for those to mature in the years to come. I'll probably unload when crypto becomes mainstream, wherein everyone is buying/selling it, just like the stock market.

[burdeN]

I think this crush will long till 1st August and then we will see huge growth, probably till 3k. Current crush is made just to buy as much as possible

[michellee]

Probably there will be a big crash but if this won't happen I think Bitcoin can reach the 3k cap pretty easily.

i think the same with you but i hope the price is not down too deep like many traders but we'll see. but we see that the price is start to down in last weeks ago and until now, the price is still down and even its down too deep and now reach $2,0xx, many traders is panic with this situation and it makes them to sell bitcoin with fast.

[barota]

I think this crush will long till 1st August and then we will see huge growth, probably till 3k. Current crush is made just to buy as much as possible

iagree with you 100 percent
bitcoin  will rise to 3000 usd after some days

+  bitcoin will drop to 1400 than will rise to 2000 ------2500----3000----2500-----3800-----3000 

[T-TERI]

what about a win-win game with big boys?

[speaktome]

Probably there will be a big crash but if this won't happen I think Bitcoin can reach the 3k cap pretty easily.

i think the same with you but i hope the price is not down too deep like many traders but we'll see. but we see that the price is start to down in last weeks ago and until now, the price is still down and even its down too deep and now reach $2,0xx, many traders is panic with this situation and it makes them to sell bitcoin with fast.

The graphs already show that the price goes in free fall,especially because there are still days for trust to return on the part of investors,I think they are returning to fiat while all this commotion occurs,fifteen days now in the face of such uncertainty is too long for the price to be maintained even at these levels,it seems that the adjustment will still be greater,probably one accompanied by three zeros,go event! will surely be remembered for a long time by virtue of what happens.

[Onika84]

I just started trading, 2 months ago. Currently, I am still waiting for the basic price or the best price according to the information I get. Although I lose almost 40% but I still HODL.

Give me a suggestion that you think is good, the scenario of what would happen after 1st August? What should I do, wait until what happen after that or buy before that day?

[olliejjc16]

Even if segwit is implemented there will still be a probable hardfork later this year. You might see a rally in August for a little while but the uncertainty and fud is going to continue after it for quite a while yet.

[Considered]

The crash is slowly happening buddy, it will go deeper near August 1 and almost all of us speculates that it will go $3000 after the crash.

[D2Entertainment]

I just started trading, 2 months ago. Currently, I am still waiting for the basic price or the best price according to the information I get. Although I lose almost 40% but I still HODL.

Give me a suggestion that you think is good, the scenario of what would happen after 1st August? What should I do, wait until what happen after that or buy before that day?

If you're considering buying at this point in time, I would recommend determining the total amount that you'd like to put forth between now and Aug 1st.  Then divide that total amount by the number of days between now and Aug 1st (or even add on a few days and make it Aug 5th or some date around then). Whatever number you come up with - let's say it's an even average of $100 - that's the amount of BTC that you buy every day.  You are then allowing yourself to buy into it more and more as the price continues to drop - as many think it will until at least Aug 1st.  In the event that the price stays around the same as it's at today, there's no harm.  In the event that it goes lower, you're averaging out your investment toward the current, lower valuation of a BTC. And in the event that it goes up, you've at least bought some amount at a smaller cost than if you had waited until later to buy.

[ekin4]

It's a big gambling I think. If you stay in altcoins and it will crash then you can't recover from it for a long period of time.
But if everything goes well and it goes up again we can see bigger highs for all coins. It's your choice to sell all your coins and wait until August pass or stay half in coins and half in cash.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Ooooh, you're a penny stock trader, you must know everything!   That's sarcasm, for those of you ballsacks who are tone deaf.

People are rolling in dough right now if they sold bitcoin short.  I'll admit that my attention span is impaired and I didn't read the entire OP, but whales who're holding now are also losing money.  Everyone who hasn't sold their stash or gone short is.  But we'll rebound after this whole stink blows over.   I've no doubt of it.  Penny stocks are similar but there is a pretty big difference between them and bitcoin.

[Dark_Element]

Ooooh, you're a penny stock trader, you must know everything!   That's sarcasm, for those of you ballsacks who are tone deaf.

People are rolling in dough right now if they sold bitcoin short.  I'll admit that my attention span is impaired and I didn't read the entire OP, but whales who're holding now are also losing money.  Everyone who hasn't sold their stash or gone short is.  But we'll rebound after this whole stink blows over.   I've no doubt of it.  Penny stocks are similar but there is a pretty big difference between them and bitcoin.

LOL, that's funny.

BTC broke $2000 to the downside, and we're just getting warmed up.
Hey if they want to get it all out of the way before Aug 1st... they can be my guest.

Whales don't care too much about losing right here, they care about accumulation. The target next year is already known to them. This is small potatoes. Even if they loaded the boat here, they aren't losing money.
They will get the maximum number of coins, at a variety of prices.

It will take some more destruction to change my call..... break $1200 to the downside before Aug 1st. If they do that, it's still the same plan just accelerated (I think, and still think it will be after Aug 1st that they do this).
The kicker here is if they take it to $1200 first.... there will be a pause after Aug 1st to keep shaking people out. Scaring people isn't enough, you have to make them question.... then you can rocket it. The questioners hesitate and end up chasing the upper end. That's how it's done to retails every time.

-DE

 

[7788bitcoin]

I think this crush will long till 1st August and then we will see huge growth, probably till 3k. Current crush is made just to buy as much as possible

It is really good to see many positive response from the forum members,will that be the case with investors,the crash will be temporary but how deep it will go down is still a mystery,will it go down to $1000 is a big question.

[Dark_Element]

what about a win-win game with big boys?

Impossible... it's a zero sum game.
Only so much cash backstopping a market. They gotta get retail cash in, and then take it away.

This is such a gem for them because you have two entire generations that don't trust stocks, and are investing in coins like previous generations did with stocks.

Boomers are finished, but it's their money which bankrolls the whales. They want a return on investment and the money houses will go wherever they have to.
Gen-X is a transitional generation and has the least amount of money in the coin market (their resources are still locked in the stock market, trying to recover from two crashes).
Millennials are the drivers of the coin market and are invested heavily. They missed the dot.com crash, but were old enough to witness it and distrust stocks (plus 2008 reinforced that viewpoint).
Gen-Z isn't old enough to really understand the one crash they lived thru (2008), and are still young and optimistic (and are buying coins).

New name, same game.

-DE

[CryptoPro3]

My stance is to stay mentally strong, keep accumulating, and hold out. I got a good amount of skin in the game, but I make good money and can afford to "lose" it if necessary, even though not ideal. I don't think I will lose anything though, I know I won't. Keep strong hands and accumulate and don't get scared. Fear will only bring us down.  I will be winning, will you guys join me? Check back with me in 6 months.

[Higher Altitude]

As Bitcoin gets its facelift from lemonade stand to Fortune 500 company there will definitely be more money flowing towards bitcoin as everyone will want a piece of the pie.

In regards to the whales manipulating after August 1st: I think it's like being the wife of an abusive and violent husband. When he gets horny you just gotta go with the flow but as soon as he's happy it'll be back to normal for you. (sorry for the analogy but it's true). They will play their dirty games but bitcoin is much bigger than that and will continue it's inevitable rise.

[btc_angela]

I think this crush will long till 1st August and then we will see huge growth, probably till 3k. Current crush is made just to buy as much as possible

It is really good to see many positive response from the forum members,will that be the case with investors,the crash will be temporary but how deep it will go down is still a mystery,will it go down to $1000 is a big question.

Yes, the community is still upbeat even though a lot of negativity causing the price to go down hard is too worrying. I myself questioning whether to really sell or just hold. But  I fully trust the bitcoin system that I will hold and buy at least 1 full btc with this price declined. I'm positive that the price will go up after the Aug 1.

[JosNekoKopa]

Already the crash has been started with many rumors of Split, it is creating a lot of panic in people mind and many people are dumping the coins at the lower price. I think things not working according to the situation because lot propagation going on whether Bitcoin will split or not.

Split won't change much, other will become another altcoin only will be named Bitcoin X for example. I think Bitcoin had forks earlier, why this one is so special? Crash is just illusion, it will recover very soon when all this pass.

Probably there will be a big crash but if this won't happen I think Bitcoin can reach the 3k cap pretty easily.

This time we will go beyond, this is just the way how things work. Fud will cause panic and small dump, whales will accumulate more.