Maybe I'm fantasizing but haven't markets priced in Aug 1 already?
Will we have to wait until the very day to know whether soft or hard fork or whatever?
Or can you pick up signs that the solution is decided already while cryptos are behaving like a tempest in a teapot?
the activation and the result of that date is a process not something that happens over night without anybody knowing and being caught off guard.
first miners start signalling then a total hashrate that is behind every proposal becomes clear and based on that you can see what the outcome will be. so far there is about 90% behind SegWit and that means it will be activated without any problems.
some people love to create disruption and say miners will pull out near the end but i like to stick to reality rather than what may happen.
and the signalling and the locked in status is achieved in one difficulty period if i am not mistaken which is 2016 blocks. (someone should verify this since i am not sure how timeframe of each of these things go, there are too much information
p.s the price actions are 70% manipulation and 30% panic sells.
"So far there is about 90% behind SegWit"- could you clarify that? From who? From what I've read the core group of programmers are not in agreement anywhere close to 90%. Also isn't it important to clarify if you're speaking towards SegWit or SegWit2?
If 90% believe it would be activated without any problems there certainly would be far less panic than there is right? ( and I'm speaking of panic from the big players in BTC like the heads of each exchange).
only 2 groups are important. Miners and Nodes. the developers have already done their part.
Majority of nodes (more than 90%) are running bitcoin core which is compatible with SegWit in other words they are behind it and supporting it.
Majority of miners (nearly 90%) are supporting SegWit which means they are behind it.
SegWit, SegWit2x, BIP148 (UASF) are currently all compatible, they are all looking for SegWit aka BIP91 which was merged into SegWit2x some time ago and miners are signalling the same thing. this means i am talking about all of them since
they are the same thing!
p.s. panic has nothing to do with any of this. it is market manipulation. take a look at the charts and see how many of these red bars we had so far where people panicked and dumped bitcoin!!!