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Author Topic: ASICMINER Blade Sales [Temporarily Out of Stock]  (Read 104661 times)
muyuu
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May 13, 2013, 06:43:16 PM
 #21

I agree, I should be thinking in Bitcoins, unfortunately I'm new to this and would need to purchase 50 BTC to spend it.  My own fault for getting into this so late, either way, I'm happy with my 1 GHash at the moment.

1 Sell cards
2 Acquire Block Erupter blade(s)
3 Profit ASICMINER shareholders

There, fixed for you. I guess some people are happy to pay 10x margins. At least you're honest when you say you hold AM shares Wink

Buy shares too Cheesy

I am a shareholder. Duh.

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bitcoiner49er
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May 13, 2013, 06:46:26 PM
 #22

The pricing is precisely in line with what the market has dictated.  Refer to the past 3 auction threads for information on this rather than stating that you believe this is overpriced. 

Simple economics people.

Meh. It's not a true market. It's not people with 0BTC, going to Mt Gox/ et al and buying 50-75BTC and then bidding on the ASICMINER blades. It's people who invested early in bitcoin (buying or mining) and have an abundance of BTC. If I bought 50BTC when it was $5, then $250 for a 10GH/s miner is a no-brainer. Yet at ~$100/BTC it's not market price. that is why there are so many DIY ASIC operations going on.
I applaud ASICMINER for getting product out there and doing it the fastest, for that they should (and are) be rewarded. But 50BTC is not a real-world option for most.

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BlackLilac Grant
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May 13, 2013, 06:54:19 PM
 #23

These are unlikely to break even in under 6 months. Maybe 12 months. That's too long a time frame for my investment comforts.

Then don't buy any! More for the rest of us.
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May 13, 2013, 06:58:24 PM
 #24

Meh. It's not a true market Scotsman.

^Fixed it.  No charge.  Wink

50BTC is not a real-world option for most.

99.9% of "most" people have zero bitcoins.  Why should a market priced in bitcoins for people desiring to spend bitcoins on a bitcoin-producing product give one Satoshi of a flying fuck what "real-world options" those losers are lacking?  Because envy?  Because Marxism?  Because jelly?


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May 13, 2013, 06:58:43 PM
 #25

The pricing is precisely in line with what the market has dictated.  Refer to the past 3 auction threads for information on this rather than stating that you believe this is overpriced. 

Simple economics people.

Meh. It's not a true market. It's not people with 0BTC, going to Mt Gox/ et al and buying 50-75BTC and then bidding on the ASICMINER blades. It's people who invested early in bitcoin (buying or mining) and have an abundance of BTC. If I bought 50BTC when it was $5, then $250 for a 10GH/s miner is a no-brainer. Yet at ~$100/BTC it's not market price. that is why there are so many DIY ASIC operations going on.
I applaud ASICMINER for getting product out there and doing it the fastest, for that they should (and are) be rewarded. But 50BTC is not a real-world option for most.

uh...no it's not. why spend your 50 btc when you might not recover it all from mining? if you hold on to the 50 btc at least you've not lost BTC if the blade doesn't break even.

measure ROI in btc, not dollars.
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May 13, 2013, 07:18:19 PM
 #26

These are unlikely to break even in under 6 months. Maybe 12 months. That's too long a time frame for my investment comforts.
.

I see it as a hedge against my 5 batch 3 avalons arriving late.  If they arrive late, I have my blades which will be churning away for a while at low difficulty.  If my avalons arrive on time, difficulty will skyrocket but I will have 360,000 mh/s as opposed to only 22,000.  More hashing goodness.  Either way, the only way I lose is if hardware breaks or get stolen.  That's a gamble I will take all day long.  But I think your estimate of 12 months is way off because I don't believe BFL will ever ship their hardware as promised.  They will go under in a few months once difficulty jumps up, they still haven't shipped, and all their customers pull their orders at once.
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May 13, 2013, 07:40:01 PM
 #27

Well, ASICMINER has priced these over the ultimate ROI of the unit, assuming the hash rate increases at least 5% every two weeks (and we've been closer to 10% lately).

Here are the numbers:

Code:
2-week
Hash Rate   Total BTC
Increase    10 years
=========   =========
   3%         59.4
   4%         52.0
   5%         46.9 
   6%         43.1
   7%         40.2   
   8%         37.8
   10%        34.2
   15%        28.5

Of course, this assumes 24/7 operation, zero electricity costs, etc.

Please be careful!
JimiQ84
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May 13, 2013, 07:46:09 PM
 #28

Well, ASICMINER has priced these over the ultimate ROI of the unit, assuming the hash rate increases at least 5% every two weeks (and we've been closer to 10% lately).

Here are the numbers:

Code:
2-week
Hash Rate   Total BTC
Increase    10 years
=========   =========
   3%         59.4
   4%         52.0
   5%         46.9 
   6%         43.1
   7%         40.2   
   8%         37.8
   10%        34.2
   15%        28.5

Of course, this assumes 24/7 operation, zero electricity costs, etc.

Please be careful!

You have it wrong. I just calculated that with 10% diff increase in 12,72 days (2016 blocks) means 69 BTC in 240 days. You know, blades are 13GH/s. By the way - diff at the end was 62M. That means roughly 467 TH/s network.
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May 13, 2013, 07:51:01 PM
 #29

You have to measure ROI in both dollars AND Bitcoin. Electricity is sold in dollars, not bitcoin. And regardless of whether you paid $5/btc a year ago, what you PAID then isn't what matters, it's what it's worth now.

Whether you have Bitcoin or cash, it doesn't matter. Either way, you're looking at $6000, because if you cashed out that bitcoin, instead of spending it, that's how much money you would have. Hence, you're losing $5750 in value that your cheap $5 Bitcoins that you spent $250 for are now worth.

At the end of the day, it doesn't matter when you bought in. The Blade will cost you $6000 in assets.

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May 13, 2013, 08:14:16 PM
 #30

You have to measure ROI in both dollars AND Bitcoin. Electricity is sold in dollars, not bitcoin. And regardless of whether you paid $5/btc a year ago, what you PAID then isn't what matters, it's what it's worth now.

Whether you have Bitcoin or cash, it doesn't matter. Either way, you're looking at $6000, because if you cashed out that bitcoin, instead of spending it, that's how much money you would have. Hence, you're losing $5750 in value that your cheap $5 Bitcoins that you spent $250 for are now worth.

At the end of the day, it doesn't matter when you bought in. The Blade will cost you $6000 in assets.

The cost of sucking up all the ASIC supply so others can't compete anymore or get past the barrier to entry and just go somewhere else.

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May 13, 2013, 08:17:39 PM
 #31

ARRGH, You are correct. I've revised my numbers:

Code:
2-week
Hash Rate   Total BTC  Time to B/E
Increase    10 years     (days)
=========   =========  ===========
   4%          197        95
   6%          142        102
   8%          110        109
   10%          90        119
   15%          63        159
   20%          49        ---

My math just ain't what it used to be.

One thing to keep in mind is that during the GPU rush, we saw about 43% increase in difficulty every two weeks for 18 months straight. Difficulty went from 1 to 1,000,000 in 18 months. If we see anything over 20%, these rigs will not pay off.

[EDIT: Recently, we've seen about 17% increases in difficulty every two weeks. That gives a total ROI of 54.7 BTC after electricity, assuming 0.11 $/KWh and 116 $/BTC. They become uneconomical after 18 months.]
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May 13, 2013, 08:18:03 PM
 #32

Sucking up all the supply? there is other manufactures and nothing stopping asicminer from ramping up there own in house hash rate to compete with those chips you order.
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May 13, 2013, 08:18:48 PM
 #33

99.9% of "most" people have zero bitcoins.  Why should a market priced in bitcoins for people desiring to spend bitcoins on a bitcoin-producing product give one Satoshi of a flying fuck what "real-world options" those losers are lacking?  Because envy?  Because Marxism?  Because jelly?

Because people are buying blades in the hopes of making income (Bitcoin/dollars/Euros/etc). If it's just a novelty or pastime, then the USBeruptor or some other small ASIC device would be fine.

As you said, 99.9% of people don't have any BTC. So, the market is defined by those that do. Which it is/was. But if you truly believe that BTC can be the future, then you need to consider the 99.9%. Are they all going to try and buy miners? No. But saying that these "losers" are jelly is not gonna make anyone want to use BTC.


Nevermind, I guess replying and then ignoring is the new way to debate.  Roll Eyes

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May 13, 2013, 08:31:00 PM
 #34

99.9% of "most" people have zero bitcoins.  Why should a market priced in bitcoins for people desiring to spend bitcoins on a bitcoin-producing product give one Satoshi of a flying fuck what "real-world options" those losers are lacking?  Because envy?  Because Marxism?  Because jelly?
Are they all going to try and buy miners? No. BTC.

They don't need to.  We are all early adopters.Many of us believe that one day owning a single coin may be a luxury unobtainable by most of society.  That doesn't mean they won't adopt it eventually.  They will simply be buying mBTC instead of whole coins.  We are all taking a risk here, and those who jump in later will pay for the lower risk in the form of higher prices for smaller denominations.  Since btc is divisible to 8 places, why are you worried about the 99% at all?
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May 13, 2013, 08:31:39 PM
 #35

You have to measure ROI in both dollars AND Bitcoin. Electricity is sold in dollars, not bitcoin. And regardless of whether you paid $5/btc a year ago, what you PAID then isn't what matters, it's what it's worth now.

Whether you have Bitcoin or cash, it doesn't matter. Either way, you're looking at $6000, because if you cashed out that bitcoin, instead of spending it, that's how much money you would have. Hence, you're losing $5750 in value that your cheap $5 Bitcoins that you spent $250 for are now worth.

At the end of the day, it doesn't matter when you bought in. The Blade will cost you $6000 in assets.

Agreed. But if I got into mining (or buying) 3 years ago, or bought in ASICMINER at .1BTC/share and I have hundreds or thousands of BTC, then re-investing 50+BTC is a much easier decision.

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May 13, 2013, 08:38:02 PM
 #36

Sucking up all the supply? there is other manufactures and nothing stopping asicminer from ramping up there own in house hash rate to compete with those chips you order.

Same ppl with a lot of "cheap" BTCs are sucking them up too, who else do you think?

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May 13, 2013, 08:39:58 PM
 #37

These are unlikely to break even in under 6 months. Maybe 12 months. That's too long a time frame for my investment comforts.

Its hard to tell. my basic research and calculations indicate that at the current rate of ASIC development/release you should be able to break even in a 6 month time period if there is no major release by avalon, BFL, or any other underdog thats still in R&D.

optimistically, the blade could pay for itself in about 4 months, and at the end of its "lifespan' of 2 years (i refuse to look any further due to diminishing returns and the possibility of hardware failure you could make about a 200% profit.

less optimistically, if the value of BTC changes or ASICs quickly come into the market at competitive pricing, this could take 8-10 months to break even and may only see a 100% ROI during its lifespan (which will require 24/7 uptime, basic user interaction, and the chance of hardware failure)


If i had 50BTC in my wallet I would probably buy one of these now. However, I don't and am willing to wait another month for when you can get at least 50% more hash per dollar.  i would love to see 5Gash for 20 BTC - that would be my trigger to buy one

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May 13, 2013, 08:52:12 PM
 #38

These are unlikely to break even in under 6 months. Maybe 12 months. That's too long a time frame for my investment comforts.

Its hard to tell. my basic research and calculations indicate that at the current rate of ASIC development/release you should be able to break even in a 6 month time period if there is no major release by avalon, BFL, or any other underdog thats still in R&D.

optimistically, the blade could pay for itself in about 4 months, and at the end of its "lifespan' of 2 years (i refuse to look any further due to diminishing returns and the possibility of hardware failure you could make about a 200% profit.

less optimistically, if the value of BTC changes or ASICs quickly come into the market at competitive pricing, this could take 8-10 months to break even and may only see a 100% ROI during its lifespan (which will require 24/7 uptime, basic user interaction, and the chance of hardware failure)


If i had 50BTC in my wallet I would probably buy one of these now. However, I don't and am willing to wait another month for when you can get at least 50% more hash per dollar.  i would love to see 5Gash for 20 BTC - that would be my trigger to buy one

There are other options out there for far less than 20BTC per 5GH. Of course they aren't out yet, but I am sincerely interested in the DIY Avalon projects.
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May 13, 2013, 09:11:18 PM
 #39

You have to measure ROI in both dollars AND Bitcoin. Electricity is sold in dollars, not bitcoin. And regardless of whether you paid $5/btc a year ago, what you PAID then isn't what matters, it's what it's worth now.

Whether you have Bitcoin or cash, it doesn't matter. Either way, you're looking at $6000, because if you cashed out that bitcoin, instead of spending it, that's how much money you would have. Hence, you're losing $5750 in value that your cheap $5 Bitcoins that you spent $250 for are now worth.

At the end of the day, it doesn't matter when you bought in. The Blade will cost you $6000 in assets.

I think ROI needs to just be BTC.  If you can get your coins back, electricity should be pretty trivial on a 90w item. 

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May 13, 2013, 09:12:56 PM
 #40

Are you including reward halvings in these numbers? 10 years is a long time.

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