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Author Topic: ASICMINER Blade Sales [Temporarily Out of Stock]  (Read 104690 times)
ecliptic
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May 14, 2013, 07:27:00 PM
 #81

Asicminer is brinigng online THEIR OWN 262 TH/sec over the next 3 months

Avalon is shipping 200 TH/sec worth of Chips in 2 months

BFL will add anything between 0 and 400+ TH/sec
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May 14, 2013, 07:30:14 PM
 #82


If you get your 10GH/s now, they will be paid for in 6 months or less, even if the difficulty reaches 100M in 6 months.

Unlikely. BTC/month will go about like this:

10, 7, 5, 3.5, 2.5, 1.75 = 29.75 btc in 6 months. The chance of making back 50 btc, ever, is relatively small.

Lol? My blades are currently making 16-17 a month, each. Nice to see 16-17=10 though.

where are you getting "16-17=10" from? If you look at the theory by Syke it is probably safe to assume he is initiating his calculations from when the blade arrives, lets say in a month to be safe. from there, he estimates about 30% difficulty rise every month. That means if you have 16 BTC/month now, in a month (when his calculations start from) it would be 11.2 BTC, which isnt much greater then 10.

follow that logic, and you can expect to see about 47 BTC in six months, making you one of the few that will make a profit. However, at this point in time, 40BTC would be a better price in my opinion

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May 14, 2013, 07:31:15 PM
 #83

Asicminer is brinigng online THEIR OWN 262 TH/sec over the next 3 months

Avalon is shipping 200 TH/sec worth of Chips in 2 months

BFL will add anything between 0 and 400+ TH/sec

26,000 blades isn't going to be easy. Just look at the logistics they faced on SHIPPING 50 blades, and then another 150. Nevermind HOSTING 26,000. Do you know how big that warehouse is, and to power 2600KW? And remove 2600KW of heat? It can obviously be done but its not a walk in the park.

Avalon are shipping 200TH worth of chips, if anyone ever works out 1) what to do with them 2) then actually do something with them. 10000000 chips in a jiffy bag does not equal network hashing. And going by the current month long delays on BATCH 2, nevermind batch 3.... 2 months? I doubt it.

BFL might ship a usb hub by 2016, they are a joke.

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May 14, 2013, 07:33:28 PM
 #84


If you get your 10GH/s now, they will be paid for in 6 months or less, even if the difficulty reaches 100M in 6 months.

Unlikely. BTC/month will go about like this:

10, 7, 5, 3.5, 2.5, 1.75 = 29.75 btc in 6 months. The chance of making back 50 btc, ever, is relatively small.

Lol? My blades are currently making 16-17 a month, each. Nice to see 16-17=10 though.

where are you getting "16-17=10" from? If you look at the theory by Syke it is probably safe to assume he is initiating his calculations from when the blade arrives, lets say in a month to be safe. from there, he estimates about 30% difficulty rise every month. That means if you have 16 BTC/month now, in a month (when his calculations start from) it would be 11.2 BTC, which isnt much greater then 10.

follow that logic, and you can expect to see about 47 BTC in six months, making you one of the few that will make a profit. However, at this point in time, 40BTC would be a better price in my opinion

You're proposing 19% increases each 2 weeks, permanently. We saw 11% last week - that's a hell of a difference.

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May 14, 2013, 07:40:05 PM
 #85

Dont ever use forum ip ever. If you have flaky DNS or something adjust your hosts file, but always type bitcointalk.org in browser. That way you wont be ignoring SSL warnings.
Consider this. The hosting provider steals the IP and points it to some kind of proxy harvesting users passwords, etc. then u will unknowingly give them your stuff since u are used to ignoring the SSL certificate anyways. Hell even your local ISP or man in middle can get your password, cause you would simply trust their (invalid) certificate.

So +1 for scammer tag if you had used IP Wink

And what else was I meant to use when they changed domain providers and it wouldn't route probably in the UK?

http://bit.ly/10FyzJE

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May 14, 2013, 08:02:32 PM
 #86


You're proposing 19% increases each 2 weeks, permanently. We saw 11% last week - that's a hell of a difference.

Don't look at a single difficulty adjustment. Look at a couple months worth.

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/growth.png

The network has been growing at over 1% per day for the last two months. Over the next few months we'll be seeing that increase, as Avalon, BFL, and even Asicminer start ramping up ASIC production.

Buy & Hold
ecliptic
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May 14, 2013, 08:19:33 PM
 #87

Haha i didn't even include the 200 - 1000 TH/Sec that Bitfury is bringing online this summer between chip sales and 100TH/sec miner

and MtGox just got raided - Can't move USD out.  BTC:USD crash incoming

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May 14, 2013, 08:43:24 PM
 #88


You're proposing 19% increases each 2 weeks, permanently. We saw 11% last week - that's a hell of a difference.

Don't look at a single difficulty adjustment. Look at a couple months worth.

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/growth.png

The network has been growing at over 1% per day for the last two months. Over the next few months we'll be seeing that increase, as Avalon, BFL, and even Asicminer start ramping up ASIC production.


Past performance is not an indication of future performance, lesson 1.

wtfvanity
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May 14, 2013, 08:55:14 PM
 #89

Asicminer is brinigng online THEIR OWN 262 TH/sec over the next 3 months

Avalon is shipping 200 TH/sec worth of Chips in 2 months

BFL will add anything between 0 and 400+ TH/sec

When is your estimate for BFL?

If it's the 2-3 month time frame, your estimate should be more like 0 - 1 TH/sec

If you mean in 2-3 years, 0-400 is probably fair.

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May 14, 2013, 08:56:28 PM
 #90

Mt.Gox did not get raided as far as I can tell : l
pikeadz
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May 14, 2013, 08:57:42 PM
 #91

Asicminer is brinigng online THEIR OWN 262 TH/sec over the next 3 months

Avalon is shipping 200 TH/sec worth of Chips in 2 months

BFL will add anything between 0 and 400+ TH/sec

Agree with everything except the last one.  BFL is nowhere near mass production and will likely go under in he next few months as more and more people request refunds due to other companies and independents performing and raising difficulty.  

I am starting to think a lot of these naysayers are BFL customers in denial who are simply trying to prevent more difficulty spikes.  I suppose I'd do the same if I paid 60 bitcoins for a Jalapeno last year that's still on the drawing table.
pikeadz
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May 14, 2013, 08:59:12 PM
 #92


If you get your 10GH/s now, they will be paid for in 6 months or less, even if the difficulty reaches 100M in 6 months.

Unlikely. BTC/month will go about like this:

10, 7, 5, 3.5, 2.5, 1.75 = 29.75 btc in 6 months. The chance of making back 50 btc, ever, is relatively small.

Lol? My blades are currently making 16-17 a month, each. Nice to see 16-17=10 though.

where are you getting "16-17=10" from? If you look at the theory by Syke it is probably safe to assume he is initiating his calculations from when the blade arrives, lets say in a month to be safe. from there, he estimates about 30% difficulty rise every month. That means if you have 16 BTC/month now, in a month (when his calculations start from) it would be 11.2 BTC, which isnt much greater then 10.

follow that logic, and you can expect to see about 47 BTC in six months, making you one of the few that will make a profit. However, at this point in time, 40BTC would be a better price in my opinion

A month?!  Most people received their blades in 2 days.  I bought mine yesterday and (checks DHL) ah yes, it just cleared customs.  It should be here in 2 more days.
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May 14, 2013, 09:06:59 PM
 #93


Past performance is not an indication of future performance, lesson 1.

Past performance may not be a guarantee, but it sure is a good indiction of future growth.

Buy & Hold
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May 14, 2013, 09:09:56 PM
 #94


Past performance is not an indication of future performance, lesson 1.

Past performance may not be a guarantee, but it sure is a good indiction of future growth.

Lesson 2, past performance is not a good indication of future growth, it is NOTHING. Rolling a dice a billion times does not give you any more information on what the next outcome will be.

wtfvanity
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May 14, 2013, 09:38:14 PM
 #95


Past performance is not an indication of future performance, lesson 1.

Past performance may not be a guarantee, but it sure is a good indiction of future growth.

Lesson 2, past performance is not a good indication of future growth, it is NOTHING. Rolling a dice a billion times does not give you any more information on what the next outcome will be.

That absolutely is not true. Unless the dice were perfectly weighted, rolling a billion times would definitely give you information about that specific dice.

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KS
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May 14, 2013, 09:56:55 PM
 #96

They are the only one you can buy from right now, and actually get your GH/s (the others will deliver before Huh Huh Huh)

Doesn't matter jack shit if you don't make as much or more bitcoins with them as you buy them for. The blades are a losing proposition.

Then you can wait for the next Avalon announcement (people who ordered in Batch 2 in Feb are still waiting) or order from BFL and wait 6+ mos

It hardly is brain surgery to realise that even holding onto the bitcoins is a better deal than buying ASICMINER hardware...

Yes, but maybe it's a worse deal to wait and loose even more of your % of the network. It's a costly way to maintain your share, but if you get your GH/s sooner than later, it will take less time to get your target ROI.

If you get your 10GH/s now, they will be paid for in 6 months or less, even if the difficulty reaches 100M in 6 months.

It's not about "maintaining a share" of network. It's about whether you get your 50 BTC back + some extra for your trouble. ASICMINER's pricing is so tight that you're very unlikely to make profit or even break even. Remember, you will be competing against ASICMINER's in-house hardware too, which they're sure to bring online as much as they dare to.

Even if you will break even in 6 months, the difficulty will be so high by that time the blade(s) will bring in so little revenue it probably isn't worth the bother to keep them running. As I said earlier, ASICMINER is trying to squeeze profits out of both ends.

Feel free to take the gamble enrich ASICMINER. I won't.

I don't know... For sure you should invest in a calculated manner, but I think ppl are buying them (because they can) to protect their current revenue levels (same as network share, since you only get a fixed amount of BTC).

I can see why you wouldn't want to support ASICMINER. Thanks to the good execution of their ASIC project, they are now too big for the system. You can blame that on BFL pocketing the money of a bunch of miners and never delivering. If they don't fold before shipping their products, the miners who have their funds stuck in the BFL pit will be able to start getting some ROI and the normal cycle of funding future revenues will recover, which should push ASICMINER lower in network share. Until the next cycle. Lather, rince, repeat.

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May 14, 2013, 10:16:52 PM
 #97


Past performance is not an indication of future performance, lesson 1.

Past performance may not be a guarantee, but it sure is a good indiction of future growth.

Lesson 2, past performance is not a good indication of future growth, it is NOTHING. Rolling a dice a billion times does not give you any more information on what the next outcome will be.

That absolutely is not true. Unless the dice were perfectly weighted, rolling a billion times would definitely give you information about that specific dice.

And is an open market not a perfectly weighted dice? Without knowing EVERY variable at a given moment, the variables you do know are meaningless.

muyuu
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May 14, 2013, 11:47:59 PM
 #98

It's expected that difficulty will continue going up strong for a while. But we don't know exactly how much and how long will it take.

We just made our bets. We will check back in 1 year to see how it looks like.

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May 14, 2013, 11:57:32 PM
 #99


And is an open market not a perfectly weighted dice? Without knowing EVERY variable at a given moment, the variables you do know are meaningless.

The only time bitcoin was close to an open market was when CPU mining was effective. Then, anyone with a computer could simply download the app and start mining. Now that ASICs are available, there is momentum in bringing new hardware online. Miners were purchased months ago, and they will continue arriving and coming online over the next few months. Difficulty increases are going to accelerate as delivery catches up with orders.

Buy & Hold
KS
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May 15, 2013, 07:05:09 AM
 #100


And is an open market not a perfectly weighted dice? Without knowing EVERY variable at a given moment, the variables you do know are meaningless.

The only time bitcoin was close to an open market was when CPU mining was effective. Then, anyone with a computer could simply download the app and start mining. Now that ASICs are available, there is momentum in bringing new hardware online. Miners were purchased months ago, and they will continue arriving and coming online over the next few months. Difficulty increases are going to accelerate as delivery catches up with orders.

It's only the beginning of ASICs. After the first gen, there will be the second gen, third gen etc. The major problem right now is that ther ASIC designers have their hands in the BTC system too, like ASICMINER.

The system is much healthier when vendors stick to hardware and customers to mining. Mix them both and it's a recipe for disaster.

If the new ASIC vendors stick to hardware, there will be (should be, in a perfect world) enough competition for the newcomers to buy into the ASIC train at a pricepoint that makes sense for them. IF BFL and KnC manage to 1/ deliver and 2/ stay out of everybody's hair, the current ASIC owners will have to ditch their hardware and upgrade. That will be the time when Joe Average will be able to hop on. I don't think we'll really loose the occasional miner, he will probably adapt like everyone else, buy a USB miner, whatever.

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List of major BTC scams https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=576337
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