Why BTC will never be over 30K

[audaciousbeing]

I've read a lot of articles about people claiming bitcoin will be worth millions in the future, for example John mcAfee recently said bitcoin will be 500K in 3 years.
Now, imagine if this was true, and it was in fact 500K/BTC. The total market cap would then be 10.500.000.000.000, or about 10 trillion dollars. This is an unbelievable and unachievable amount of money. Even if we ignore the market caps, imagine how many people would become rich? Millions would become millionairs, hundreds would become billionaires, all in a matter of 3 years. This would cripple the global economy as we know it.

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K, giving it a total market cap of about 630.000.000.000$, or 630 billion. The total market cap of cryptos would then be around 2 trillion if the some of the better alts gain more traction. I believe this is fairly realistic. This means BTC would have to rise with around 7 - 8$ a day.

Edited

If you are basing this on what McAfee said, then I would say you actually dignify him by creating a thread in his honour and based on your calculation I see it largely impossible for 500k to be achieved in 3 years maybe in the future when the whole countries in the world is being represented like we have in forex, but not in 2020 at all. However, the 30k is possible but at the same time not without its own challenges which I don't see not coming on a regular basis to swing the price backwards.

[Shtamm_oval]

I've read a lot of articles about people claiming bitcoin will be worth millions in the future, for example John mcAfee recently said bitcoin will be 500K in 3 years.
Now, imagine if this was true, and it was in fact 500K/BTC. The total market cap would then be 10.500.000.000.000, or about 10 trillion dollars. This is an unbelievable and unachievable amount of money. Even if we ignore the market caps, imagine how many people would become rich? Millions would become millionairs, hundreds would become billionaires, all in a matter of 3 years. This would cripple the global economy as we know it.

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K, giving it a total market cap of about 630.000.000.000$, or 630 billion. The total market cap of cryptos would then be around 2 trillion if the some of the better alts gain more traction. I believe this is fairly realistic. This means BTC would have to rise with around 7 - 8$ a day.

Edited

If you are basing this on what McAfee said, then I would say you actually dignify him by creating a thread in his honour and based on your calculation I see it largely impossible for 500k to be achieved in 3 years maybe in the future when the whole countries in the world is being represented like we have in forex, but not in 2020 at all. However, the 30k is possible but at the same time not without its own challenges which I don't see not coming on a regular basis to swing the price backwards.

I do not think that the price of bitcoin can ever reach such heights. Bitcoin will always remain an alternative currency. Even if many people know about it, this will not give a guarantee that everyone will use it.

[Syke]

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K

I would be fine with that in 10 years, but I don't see why the peak would be so soon. There's no reason for it to stop growing so soon.

[BitHodler]

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K

I would be fine with that in 10 years, but I don't see why the peak would be so soon. There's no reason for it to stop growing so soon.

It all depends on whether or not institutional investors will start to take Bitcoin seriously. If they even allocate 10% of their entire portfolio to Bitcoin, we'll cut through the $30,000 mark like a hot knife through butter.

That's why legalization is very important. If we see various Bitcoin related ETFs become reality somewhere in the next years, it will definitely help opening the doors for institutional investors.

[HeRetiK]

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K

I would be fine with that in 10 years, but I don't see why the peak would be so soon. There's no reason for it to stop growing so soon.

I assume that should Bitcoin succeed and live to see another 10 years, it will simply keep growing indefinitely alone due to the fact that governmental fiat currencies will keep depreciating. At least until a better asset class comes along. Question being how much of said growth we'll see in our lifetime.

[mol76]

Maybe 500k is impossible maybe not, but the truth is that even the most pessimistic forecasts speak of 10k in a few years and that's why it's worth investing ... long term of course.

[MiBambino]

I've read a lot of articles about people claiming bitcoin will be worth millions in the future, for example John mcAfee recently said bitcoin will be 500K in 3 years.
Now, imagine if this was true, and it was in fact 500K/BTC. The total market cap would then be 10.500.000.000.000, or about 10 trillion dollars. This is an unbelievable and unachievable amount of money. Even if we ignore the market caps, imagine how many people would become rich? Millions would become millionairs, hundreds would become billionaires, all in a matter of 3 years. This would cripple the global economy as we know it.

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K, giving it a total market cap of about 630.000.000.000$, or 630 billion. The total market cap of cryptos would then be around 2 trillion if the some of the better alts gain more traction. I believe this is fairly realistic. This means BTC would have to rise with around 7 - 8$ a day.

Edited

If you are basing this on what McAfee said, then I would say you actually dignify him by creating a thread in his honour and based on your calculation I see it largely impossible for 500k to be achieved in 3 years maybe in the future when the whole countries in the world is being represented like we have in forex, but not in 2020 at all. However, the 30k is possible but at the same time not without its own challenges which I don't see not coming on a regular basis to swing the price backwards.

The mcAfee one is just one I read a few days ago, there's tonnes of articles, videos, blogs and such from people talking about a 7-digit bitcoin within this decade.

[fabiorem]

10 trillion is completely possible, not in 3 years, like McAfee said, but in 10.

Marketcap for gold is 8 trillion, so yes, it is possible for bitcoin to reach 10 trillion in 10 years.

OP is a unbeliever.

[HAARP]

I've read a lot of articles about people claiming bitcoin will be worth millions in the future, for example John mcAfee recently said bitcoin will be 500K in 3 years.
Now, imagine if this was true, and it was in fact 500K/BTC. The total market cap would then be 10.500.000.000.000, or about 10 trillion dollars. This is an unbelievable and unachievable amount of money. Even if we ignore the market caps, imagine how many people would become rich? Millions would become millionairs, hundreds would become billionaires, all in a matter of 3 years. This would cripple the global economy as we know it.

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K, giving it a total market cap of about 630.000.000.000$, or 630 billion. The total market cap of cryptos would then be around 2 trillion if the some of the better alts gain more traction. I believe this is fairly realistic. This means BTC would have to rise with around 7 - 8$ a day.

Edited

Well, I'm a hard bitcoin supporter and early adopter, but your argument looked very valid to me. You're problably right about that bitcoin can't go those excessive prices. Nobody should expect that. $500,000 or $100,000 are really not logical prices

The reason, the market cap is not unlimitedly open to grow. There must be an upper bound in crypto market.

[mackenzied]

I've read a lot of articles about people claiming bitcoin will be worth millions in the future, for example John mcAfee recently said bitcoin will be 500K in 3 years.
Now, imagine if this was true, and it was in fact 500K/BTC. The total market cap would then be 10.500.000.000.000, or about 10 trillion dollars. This is an unbelievable and unachievable amount of money. Even if we ignore the market caps, imagine how many people would become rich? Millions would become millionairs, hundreds would become billionaires, all in a matter of 3 years. This would cripple the global economy as we know it.

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K, giving it a total market cap of about 630.000.000.000$, or 630 billion. The total market cap of cryptos would then be around 2 trillion if the some of the better alts gain more traction. I believe this is fairly realistic. This means BTC would have to rise with around 7 - 8$ a day.

Edited

All those statements are just false statements, they are just illusions about their future if they use bitcoin. In fact, Bitcoin is heavily impacted, and it has a huge impact on the economy of the world. The capitalization of bitcoin can not go way too high, because it can cause a global economic crisis.

[Larscolars]

I've read a lot of articles about people claiming bitcoin will be worth millions in the future, for example John mcAfee recently said bitcoin will be 500K in 3 years.
Now, imagine if this was true, and it was in fact 500K/BTC. The total market cap would then be 10.500.000.000.000, or about 10 trillion dollars. This is an unbelievable and unachievable amount of money. Even if we ignore the market caps, imagine how many people would become rich? Millions would become millionairs, hundreds would become billionaires, all in a matter of 3 years. This would cripple the global economy as we know it.

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K, giving it a total market cap of about 630.000.000.000$, or 630 billion. The total market cap of cryptos would then be around 2 trillion if the some of the better alts gain more traction. I believe this is fairly realistic. This means BTC would have to rise with around 7 - 8$ a day.

Edited

Well, I'm a hard bitcoin supporter and early adopter, but your argument looked very valid to me. You're problably right about that bitcoin can't go those excessive prices. Nobody should expect that. $500,000 or $100,000 are really not logical prices

The reason, the market cap is not unlimitedly open to grow. There must be an upper bound in crypto market.

That is a valid analysis and I agree with your points. However, I would not put a limit on the possible market cap, as counting the market caps as simply (Coins in circulation) * (Price) might lead to incorrect conclusions. Better to look at 24h trade volume, and in that aspect, bitcoin has been on the rise.

In general, $30k per BTC is a more conservative estimate.

[ngin-x]

I've read a lot of articles about people claiming bitcoin will be worth millions in the future, for example John mcAfee recently said bitcoin will be 500K in 3 years.
Now, imagine if this was true, and it was in fact 500K/BTC. The total market cap would then be 10.500.000.000.000, or about 10 trillion dollars. This is an unbelievable and unachievable amount of money. Even if we ignore the market caps, imagine how many people would become rich? Millions would become millionairs, hundreds would become billionaires, all in a matter of 3 years. This would cripple the global economy as we know it.

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K, giving it a total market cap of about 630.000.000.000$, or 630 billion. The total market cap of cryptos would then be around 2 trillion if the some of the better alts gain more traction. I believe this is fairly realistic. This means BTC would have to rise with around 7 - 8$ a day.

Edited

Your logic is weird. People who invest early in successful companies/assets always end up with a shit lot of money later on. Early adopters are taking a tremendous amount of risk and they get rewarded for it justifiably. Think of the guys who invested in Microsoft or Apple very early on and held on to their shares for a decade. Those guys are rich beyond their dreams. Warren Buffet is one of the richest person in the world because he invested in all the right places at a very early age.

Why do you it think is any different for Bitcoin? Early adopters will get filthy rich (they already are). There will be a new class of millionaires and billionaires. Wasn't this case during the dotcom bubble too? Lots of people got crazy rich during that time. Same thing will happen with cryptocurrencies. People adopting now will get rich. For people adopting 10 years later, it will be just another asset giving 5-10% ROI a year. It's all about risk vs reward premium.

Unlike companies, cryptocurrencies have no national border. So while calculating marketcap we can't just compare it to Amazon or any other company. Cypto's reach is global and possibility of much large marketcaps.

Having said all this, there is no guarantee Bitcoin will be the dominant coin of the future. Most altcoins are technologically far superior to Bitcoin. It's questionable how long the network effect will keep Bitcoin at No.1. With the impending hard fork on August 1, the flippening might finally happen.

[MiBambino]

I've read a lot of articles about people claiming bitcoin will be worth millions in the future, for example John mcAfee recently said bitcoin will be 500K in 3 years.
Now, imagine if this was true, and it was in fact 500K/BTC. The total market cap would then be 10.500.000.000.000, or about 10 trillion dollars. This is an unbelievable and unachievable amount of money. Even if we ignore the market caps, imagine how many people would become rich? Millions would become millionairs, hundreds would become billionaires, all in a matter of 3 years. This would cripple the global economy as we know it.

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K, giving it a total market cap of about 630.000.000.000$, or 630 billion. The total market cap of cryptos would then be around 2 trillion if the some of the better alts gain more traction. I believe this is fairly realistic. This means BTC would have to rise with around 7 - 8$ a day.

Edited

Your logic is weird. People who invest early in successful companies/assets always end up with a shit lot of money later on. Early adopters are taking a tremendous amount of risk and they get rewarded for it justifiably. Think of the guys who invested in Microsoft or Apple very early on and held on to their shares for a decade. Those guys are rich beyond their dreams. Warren Buffet is one of the richest person in the world because he invested in all the right places at a very early age.

Why do you it think is any different for Bitcoin? Early adopters will get filthy rich (they already are). There will be a new class of millionaires and billionaires. Wasn't this case during the dotcom bubble too? Lots of people got crazy rich during that time. Same thing will happen with cryptocurrencies. People adopting now will get rich. For people adopting 10 years later, it will be just another asset giving 5-10% ROI a year. It's all about risk vs reward premium.

Unlike companies, cryptocurrencies have no national border. So while calculating marketcap we can't just compare it to Amazon or any other company. Cypto's reach is global and possibility of much large marketcaps.

Having said all this, there is no guarantee Bitcoin will be the dominant coin of the future. Most altcoins are technologically far superior to Bitcoin. It's questionable how long the network effect will keep Bitcoin at No.1. With the impending hard fork on August 1, the flippening might finally happen.

I wouldn't call my logic weird, per se. I just get fed up with a lot of people who think bitcoin will reach the stars because 'they want it bad enough and their heart is pure'. You must understand that in order for a bitcoin to be worth 30K, someone has to buy this coin believing it will go higher. True, there might be a lot of crypto millionaires and billionaires, but as soon as they try to cash out, the markets will drop again. That's the (only) problem with cryptos; the price will not be fixed, meaning that when someone takes out his fiat money, bitcoins price will drop. When one thousand holders all cash out 30K, the price will drop further.

Also, you can't compare an extremely young asset class to one of the most dominant and globally accepted assets in the world. Gold has been a standard for wealth and security for thousands of years. I agree bitcoin can definitely take golds place in a few decades, but you have to realise most people today are highly sceptical and conservative.

Last, the flippening will never happen. People are realising slowly but steadily that there's no company on earth interested in using ethereums token, they're only interested in the tech and possibly the chain. Plus, there are a lot of materials and metals better than gold, more valuable, more rare, more pure, yet gold remains the ultimate standard. Bitcoin will forever remain the first crypto, the one above all. Most future investors will be looking for a safe investment that gives a better ROI than the bank. They won't go looking for coins they don't understand if bitcoin is right in front of them. Also, august 1st will be a non event, the upcoming fork is planned for november. If anything, august 1st will have a very small dip, nothing more.

[fluidjax]

Q: "Why BTC will never be over 30K"

OP: "My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak ......"


When you answer a Why? you need a Because, not a guess

[BTcSD]

if someone see the price of bitcoin when it was at 200-300 dollars specially newbie like me will say like your headers above "bitcoin will never go over 2000 USD soon " but look at the price now and it is not a long time , so none of us can speculate what is going to happen to BTC 2 years from now .

[mangkucrypto]

maybe soon btc will be over than 30k, i am sure for that after i read some article that give information if bitcoin will be increase in future. this is good for me as i am new comer in bitcoin world so i can buy bitcoin and save it.

[bitjoin]

I've read a lot of articles about people claiming bitcoin will be worth millions in the future, for example John mcAfee recently said bitcoin will be 500K in 3 years.
Now, imagine if this was true, and it was in fact 500K/BTC. The total market cap would then be 10.500.000.000.000, or about 10 trillion dollars. This is an unbelievable and unachievable amount of money. Even if we ignore the market caps, imagine how many people would become rich? Millions would become millionairs, hundreds would become billionaires, all in a matter of 3 years. This would cripple the global economy as we know it.

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K, giving it a total market cap of about 630.000.000.000$, or 630 billion. The total market cap of cryptos would then be around 2 trillion if the some of the better alts gain more traction. I believe this is fairly realistic. This means BTC would have to rise with around 7 - 8$ a day.

Edited

Why should we assume the economy or USD can remain stable for 10 years at this point in history where everything is becoming digital.  We could easy hit them numbers but perhaps the dollar will be worth 10 times less at that point.

[fearcoka]

This thread make me remember after Bitcoin breakdown from ~ $1300 to range $200-$300 in 2015, most trader say Bitcoin can't reach again this price, maybe died soon. But they don't know if buy some Bitcoin in that time, in current they can become millionaire as young boy not enough 18 age in Bitcoin news in few months ago. So, not have anyone can predict the future of Bitcoin, we just can waiting the time prove that.

[RoyBatty]

I've read a lot of articles about people claiming bitcoin will be worth millions in the future, for example John mcAfee recently said bitcoin will be 500K in 3 years.
Now, imagine if this was true, and it was in fact 500K/BTC. The total market cap would then be 10.500.000.000.000, or about 10 trillion dollars. This is an unbelievable and unachievable amount of money. Even if we ignore the market caps, imagine how many people would become rich? Millions would become millionairs, hundreds would become billionaires, all in a matter of 3 years. This would cripple the global economy as we know it.

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K, giving it a total market cap of about 630.000.000.000$, or 630 billion. The total market cap of cryptos would then be around 2 trillion if the some of the better alts gain more traction. I believe this is fairly realistic. This means BTC would have to rise with around 7 - 8$ a day.

Edited

Your logic is weird. People who invest early in successful companies/assets always end up with a shit lot of money later on. Early adopters are taking a tremendous amount of risk and they get rewarded for it justifiably. Think of the guys who invested in Microsoft or Apple very early on and held on to their shares for a decade. Those guys are rich beyond their dreams. Warren Buffet is one of the richest person in the world because he invested in all the right places at a very early age.

Why do you it think is any different for Bitcoin? Early adopters will get filthy rich (they already are). There will be a new class of millionaires and billionaires. Wasn't this case during the dotcom bubble too? Lots of people got crazy rich during that time. Same thing will happen with cryptocurrencies. People adopting now will get rich. For people adopting 10 years later, it will be just another asset giving 5-10% ROI a year. It's all about risk vs reward premium.

Unlike companies, cryptocurrencies have no national border. So while calculating marketcap we can't just compare it to Amazon or any other company. Cypto's reach is global and possibility of much large marketcaps.

Having said all this, there is no guarantee Bitcoin will be the dominant coin of the future. Most altcoins are technologically far superior to Bitcoin. It's questionable how long the network effect will keep Bitcoin at No.1. With the impending hard fork on August 1, the flippening might finally happen.

I wouldn't call my logic weird, per se. I just get fed up with a lot of people who think bitcoin will reach the stars because 'they want it bad enough and their heart is pure'. You must understand that in order for a bitcoin to be worth 30K, someone has to buy this coin believing it will go higher. True, there might be a lot of crypto millionaires and billionaires, but as soon as they try to cash out, the markets will drop again. That's the (only) problem with cryptos; the price will not be fixed, meaning that when someone takes out his fiat money, bitcoins price will drop. When one thousand holders all cash out 30K, the price will drop further.

Also, you can't compare an extremely young asset class to one of the most dominant and globally accepted assets in the world. Gold has been a standard for wealth and security for thousands of years. I agree bitcoin can definitely take golds place in a few decades, but you have to realise most people today are highly sceptical and conservative.

Last, the flippening will never happen. People are realising slowly but steadily that there's no company on earth interested in using ethereums token, they're only interested in the tech and possibly the chain. Plus, there are a lot of materials and metals better than gold, more valuable, more rare, more pure, yet gold remains the ultimate standard. Bitcoin will forever remain the first crypto, the one above all. Most future investors will be looking for a safe investment that gives a better ROI than the bank. They won't go looking for coins they don't understand if bitcoin is right in front of them. Also, august 1st will be a non event, the upcoming fork is planned for november. If anything, august 1st will have a very small dip, nothing more.

You're assumption is that 10, 20, 30 yrs from now, everything will still be valued in fiat. However, everything could very well be valued in crypto in the coming future and thus these crypto millionaires and billionaires wouldn't need to "cash out". My point is, you're making a lot of assumptions to come to a conclusion that BTC can't break a $30,000 threshold. If there is one thing we DO know it's that honey badger don't give a fuck about what you think it can or can't do.

[TheFriends]

I think in just 3 years the Bitcoin has a market of 1 trilion, this means that every bitcoin will cost 60k dollars.