These are my thoughts, and I might be wrong, but...
I like to compare it to the price of gold and US interest rate hike decision. 1-2 weeks before a rate hike is announced, gold gets dumped like crazy, because everyone is afraid of that event. But after the decision is made, it actually doesn't even matter which result, gold gets pumped like there is no tomorrow. They don't care if there was a hike or not. Why? Because this event they are all afraid of is finally over and there won't be such an event anytime soon. So people can freely invest their money again...at a discounted price! Well, that happened everytime before, but not last time, because last time Yellen indicated they will probably raise again this year, which sent gold even further down. So be careful, while the chances for a pump are high, there is still a small chance that it goes the other way.
Same is happening now with nearly all coins, not just ETH. You might ask why, august 1st has nothing to do with ETH or any other altcoin. It's like trading stocks. Let's say if Apple stock crashes, most other tech stocks will crash too, because Apple, Facebook, Google etc. are market leaders and if they crash people will loose faith in tech stocks in general.
Now if you look at the trading volume since monday. It's only 1/5 of last weeks volume, or even less. That means very little buyers, but also very little sellers. People who believe in ETH are holding now -> no sellers. People who are afraid of august 1st are waiting -> no buyers. That also means, every price movement right now, up or down, is not showing the true sentiment of the majority. Just because the price is going down does not mean EVERYONE is selling. Let's say, if 100 people are holding, but 1 guy is selling for 1$, then the price IS 1$, for that moment. That doesn't mean the other 100 are willing to sell for 1$. There needs to be way more volume to see the real direction.
So now, what will happen on august 1st? It actually doesn't matter what happens to BTC, fork, no fork, spoon, tea cup, what ever. Once that day is over, there won't be such an event anytime soon. So people who are holding now will for sure not sell after august 1st. People who are waiting will start buying again -> price get pumped. Not only ETH, but most coins will get pumped.
I'm not saying this will happen 100%, because no one can predict the market with 100% certainty. The price may even go down a little bit until then. If you want to buy, then I would buy BEFORE august 1st, otherwise you might miss the train. If you buy after the pump already happened, you are making the biggest mistake buying at a high price.
That being said, always predict the unpredictable. I'm not giving any advices, just sharing my thoughts.
As for myself, I'm holding my coins I already own, not buying more. If the price get pumped, I'm making profit anyway. While the price now is tempting to buy more, I'm trying not to be greedy. I did set up a buy order at 140$ though, just in case we really drop to this level again. 2 weeks ago, when the price was declining, I said to myself 140$ is the bottom, this is a major support line, it can't break. But then I didn't buy, because I was hesitant to catch the falling knife. Well, it really hit 140$ and then shot up to 270$ in just 2 days.
Lesson learned...always believe in yourself and your first opinion...don't think twice about it
