Bitmain might shift their mining resources to BCC and start buying BCC and selling BTC to cover their monthly expenses. Pushing BCC up and BTC down on purpose. Then I think we could have the Double Moon scenario
Never trust a sleazy miner
If we have both BTC AND BCC then how likely is that both BTC+BCC=<$2900(Current BTC value)?
I just want to know if it's better to convert to USD before the fork.
BCC and BTC are separate entities. BTC + BCC doesn't automatically equal current BTC price halved after the fork.
What the price of BTC will be after the fork is
a gamble.
Well of course any mining company can influence the price and hashrate of any coin they want... especially if they run an exchange too (ViaBTC)! But at the end of the day, what will determine the market value of BTC/BCC (or whatever coin) is its UTILITY on the open market. So Core and Lukejr must be shaking in their boots that BCC will be MORE USEFUL because it's not encumbered by blocksize limits and technical debt of Segwit, and thus potentially MORE VALUABLE than BTC.
Economically speaking,, the BTC money supply is essentially doubling, although the BCC tokens will initially be undervalued. The total market cap for BTC should equal that of BTC+BCC in a few months. This would mean a BTC price drop and BCC price fluctuation.
Obviously in the short term people will be dumping BCC as quickly as they can for either BTC or cash, whichever seems to offer a higher return for minimal effort. My guess would be people initially will be exiting BCC to BTC, since selling BCC for fiat involves Chinese exchanges and Yuan forex markets, etc., except for Chinese people, who are relatively fine with Yuan. I don't see many exchanges offering BCC/BTC other than ViaBTC, but many of the mainstream exchanges will be monetizing BCC when the fork happens. If exchanges don't offer BCC/BTC monetization, they could essentially steal their users' BCC. Quite a smart move creating that situation on the BCC developers' part.
If and when BCC/alt exchanges start popping up, things will really get interesting!