Prediction about MtGox

[kiba]

I recorded a prediction here: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/18175

The prediction:

US government will indicts MtGox or its officers on criminal charges by the end of 2013.

My confidence is 33%. Subject to change as news reveal more details.

[1715225252]

1715225252

[QuestionAuthority]

What are you basing your prediction on? Is it pure wild speculation or do you know something we don't know?

[joesmoe2012]

33% ?

Why 33%

[kiba]

33% ?

Why 33%

I pick 33% because it's a guess. I don't know. However, I do feel that criminal charges is one possible event that could transpires.

With more information, I may be able to make a better more educated guess.

[alxs]

I think its 51%, not sure will be 2013 though. I think 2014 more likely in preparation for another financial crash in 3rd Q of 2015.