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Author Topic: So this will be interesting... Bitcoin to insane valuations  (Read 700 times)
williamevanl
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August 07, 2017, 05:24:50 AM
 #1

I was thinking about this earlier and I wonder what everyone's thoughts are on it. I think a lot of folks are trying to set an expected 'max value' on what bitcoin can and should be. I suspect it will enter the realm of something like the derivatives market where the total value of all derivatives is more than even all the money in the world.

If you think about it, the market cap is simply pegged on what folks are willing to 'part' with their bitcoin for. For that reason, it's completely possible that as it hits insane valuations, just about nobody will be willing to part with it. As this happens, at some point someone can say the current market cap of Bitcoin is so high that all the money in the world couldn't buy it all out. (and that would be just fine!) Just like the derivatives market with all the money in the world couldn't cover all the existing contracts, all the money in the world won't be enough to purchase what people are willing to sell their bitcoins for.

So while some folks see an upper threshold of something like all the gold (7 trillion) or world GDP ~80 Trillion, bitcoin could go even higher than that.
That should be interesting! 
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August 07, 2017, 05:37:28 AM
 #2

At the rate at which governments are printing money, there should not be a problem buying any derivative and even bitcoins. People will just buy smaller quantities as the price goes up. A full bitcoin might be beyond the reach of millions of people now, but in some years from now, owning a single Satoshi might be a big accomplishment.

We might even see Satoshi's being subdivided into smaller units, who knows. ^smile^

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August 07, 2017, 05:49:35 AM
 #3

I was thinking about this earlier and I wonder what everyone's thoughts are on it. I think a lot of folks are trying to set an expected 'max value' on what bitcoin can and should be. I suspect it will enter the realm of something like the derivatives market where the total value of all derivatives is more than even all the money in the world.

If you think about it, the market cap is simply pegged on what folks are willing to 'part' with their bitcoin for. For that reason, it's completely possible that as it hits insane valuations, just about nobody will be willing to part with it. As this happens, at some point someone can say the current market cap of Bitcoin is so high that all the money in the world couldn't buy it all out. (and that would be just fine!) Just like the derivatives market with all the money in the world couldn't cover all the existing contracts, all the money in the world won't be enough to purchase what people are willing to sell their bitcoins for.

Bitcoin could only reach valuations that exceed the value of all money in the world if people that own bitcoin aren't willing to sell at lower valuations. The thing I'm missing with your derivatives analogy is the fact that derivatives usually have some algorithm or equation that acts as a multiplier, this doesn't or wouldn't exist for bitcoin. No?

I'm not completely fluent in derivatives, so if my talk here is incorrect please educate me!

What I love most about Bitcoin is that due to its finite supply it'll always (relatively speaking) be worth more tomorrow than it is today, provided demand remains constant.

Juggy777
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August 07, 2017, 06:02:53 AM
 #4

I was thinking about this earlier and I wonder what everyone's thoughts are on it. I think a lot of folks are trying to set an expected 'max value' on what bitcoin can and should be. I suspect it will enter the realm of something like the derivatives market where the total value of all derivatives is more than even all the money in the world.

If you think about it, the market cap is simply pegged on what folks are willing to 'part' with their bitcoin for. For that reason, it's completely possible that as it hits insane valuations, just about nobody will be willing to part with it. As this happens, at some point someone can say the current market cap of Bitcoin is so high that all the money in the world couldn't buy it all out. (and that would be just fine!) Just like the derivatives market with all the money in the world couldn't cover all the existing contracts, all the money in the world won't be enough to purchase what people are willing to sell their bitcoins for.

So while some folks see an upper threshold of something like all the gold (7 trillion) or world GDP ~80 Trillion, bitcoin could go even higher than that.
That should be interesting! 

Bitcoin is about to break all thresholds and there is nothing stopping it, it's like that train 777 that's set on aa automatic break and no one to stop it. All the alts have failed, Bitcoin cash the so called alt that horribly failed, all the government can try putting in the restrictions but they won't succeed at all. All the factors point that it's going to succeed and that's the best part.

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August 07, 2017, 06:11:01 AM
 #5

I was thinking about this earlier and I wonder what everyone's thoughts are on it. I think a lot of folks are trying to set an expected 'max value' on what bitcoin can and should be. I suspect it will enter the realm of something like the derivatives market where the total value of all derivatives is more than even all the money in the world.

If you think about it, the market cap is simply pegged on what folks are willing to 'part' with their bitcoin for. For that reason, it's completely possible that as it hits insane valuations, just about nobody will be willing to part with it. As this happens, at some point someone can say the current market cap of Bitcoin is so high that all the money in the world couldn't buy it all out. (and that would be just fine!) Just like the derivatives market with all the money in the world couldn't cover all the existing contracts, all the money in the world won't be enough to purchase what people are willing to sell their bitcoins for.

So while some folks see an upper threshold of something like all the gold (7 trillion) or world GDP ~80 Trillion, bitcoin could go even higher than that.
That should be interesting! 

Bitcoin is about to break all thresholds and there is nothing stopping it, it's like that train 777 that's set on aa automatic break and no one to stop it. All the alts have failed, Bitcoin cash the so called alt that horribly failed, all the government can try putting in the restrictions but they won't succeed at all. All the factors point that it's going to succeed and that's the best part.

All the ats have failed? Did you see the market cap of altcoins is 53% right now? With probably about 90% of that being top 10-20 coins?

Alts are extremele close to bitcoin and there are some promising projects just waiting to inch closer.

williamevanl
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August 07, 2017, 06:17:06 AM
 #6

I was thinking about this earlier and I wonder what everyone's thoughts are on it. I think a lot of folks are trying to set an expected 'max value' on what bitcoin can and should be. I suspect it will enter the realm of something like the derivatives market where the total value of all derivatives is more than even all the money in the world.

If you think about it, the market cap is simply pegged on what folks are willing to 'part' with their bitcoin for. For that reason, it's completely possible that as it hits insane valuations, just about nobody will be willing to part with it. As this happens, at some point someone can say the current market cap of Bitcoin is so high that all the money in the world couldn't buy it all out. (and that would be just fine!) Just like the derivatives market with all the money in the world couldn't cover all the existing contracts, all the money in the world won't be enough to purchase what people are willing to sell their bitcoins for.

Bitcoin could only reach valuations that exceed the value of all money in the world if people that own bitcoin aren't willing to sell at lower valuations. The thing I'm missing with your derivatives analogy is the fact that derivatives usually have some algorithm or equation that acts as a multiplier, this doesn't or wouldn't exist for bitcoin. No?

I'm not completely fluent in derivatives, so if my talk here is incorrect please educate me!

What I love most about Bitcoin is that due to its finite supply it'll always (relatively speaking) be worth more tomorrow than it is today, provided demand remains constant.

So my understanding of the derivatives market is that there's leverage and probability built in where something that is being hedged against is unlikely the point of being impossible. An example would be if you were insuring all the houses in the US. They could all burn down at once but that's a near impossible scenario therefor you could borrow and insure on a margin against it happening, but if it did happen you could never cover it.

I'm not in anyway an expert on derivatives but it's that principle that allows you to end up with a marketcap that is an order of magnitude bigger then the money required to cover it. Perhaps a more simple example would just be if there were three really important 'jewels' in the world, all it would take is for 3 people to be unwilling to sell them even at bids of 100 trillion dollars, whatever that last price is, creates the 'total marketcap' even if there wouldn't even be enough money to buy the other two jewels at that cost.

I think this is what we will see with Bitcoin eventually, a market cap that couldn't be bought out with all the money in the world.
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August 07, 2017, 06:43:45 AM
 #7

I was thinking about this earlier and I wonder what everyone's thoughts are on it. I think a lot of folks are trying to set an expected 'max value' on what bitcoin can and should be. I suspect it will enter the realm of something like the derivatives market where the total value of all derivatives is more than even all the money in the world.

If you think about it, the market cap is simply pegged on what folks are willing to 'part' with their bitcoin for. For that reason, it's completely possible that as it hits insane valuations, just about nobody will be willing to part with it. As this happens, at some point someone can say the current market cap of Bitcoin is so high that all the money in the world couldn't buy it all out. (and that would be just fine!) Just like the derivatives market with all the money in the world couldn't cover all the existing contracts, all the money in the world won't be enough to purchase what people are willing to sell their bitcoins for.

So while some folks see an upper threshold of something like all the gold (7 trillion) or world GDP ~80 Trillion, bitcoin could go even higher than that.
That should be interesting! 

If you want to find a maximum value that bitcoin could reach (it's a pointless exercise, kind of like discussing what you would do it you won the lottery), then deciding to pick a value higher than all of the money in the world, would seem to make the exercise even less worthwhile!

People leverage trades with derivatives, they also sell on derivatives so that each is counted several times. The idea of Bitcoin is that that shouldn't happen. Bitcoin should be limited to M2 monetary supply so about 81 trillion USD. That would give Bitcoin a value of $3.8mil when all coins have been mined.

You can call me pessimistic, but I don't see it happening.
http://money.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization/


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August 07, 2017, 07:07:14 AM
 #8

I d say we re going to see $5k before the end of this year or first quarter next year at the latest. This upcoming November fork might slow things down a bit but besides that, the future s extremely bright.

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August 07, 2017, 07:18:19 AM
 #9

I d say we re going to see $5k before the end of this year or first quarter next year at the latest. This upcoming November fork might slow things down a bit but besides that, the future s extremely bright.
The price of 5,000 USD for bitcoin this year is such a hard goal to reach as of now because we can see that bitcoin is having a hard time in climbing up to the 4,000 USD price and i think before this year end we can be just closer or stuck at 4,000 USD price and not even close to 5,000 USD.

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August 07, 2017, 07:25:46 AM
 #10

I was thinking about this earlier and I wonder what everyone's thoughts are on it. I think a lot of folks are trying to set an expected 'max value' on what bitcoin can and should be. I suspect it will enter the realm of something like the derivatives market where the total value of all derivatives is more than even all the money in the world.

If you think about it, the market cap is simply pegged on what folks are willing to 'part' with their bitcoin for. For that reason, it's completely possible that as it hits insane valuations, just about nobody will be willing to part with it. As this happens, at some point someone can say the current market cap of Bitcoin is so high that all the money in the world couldn't buy it all out. (and that would be just fine!) Just like the derivatives market with all the money in the world couldn't cover all the existing contracts, all the money in the world won't be enough to purchase what people are willing to sell their bitcoins for.

So while some folks see an upper threshold of something like all the gold (7 trillion) or world GDP ~80 Trillion, bitcoin could go even higher than that.
That should be interesting! 

Bitcoin is about to break all thresholds and there is nothing stopping it, it's like that train 777 that's set on aa automatic break and no one to stop it. All the alts have failed, Bitcoin cash the so called alt that horribly failed, all the government can try putting in the restrictions but they won't succeed at all. All the factors point that it's going to succeed and that's the best part.

All the ats have failed? Did you see the market cap of altcoins is 53% right now? With probably about 90% of that being top 10-20 coins?

Alts are extremele close to bitcoin and there are some promising projects just waiting to inch closer.
Yes, some major alts are close enough to bitcoin. As we can see the rocket speed of bitcoin, bitcoin will also take many alts with it. Altcoins will also take a great height. Some alts like ETH,LTC,DASH, etc will sure take a pump. It is getting difficult to predict any of the cryptocurrency market for now.

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August 07, 2017, 08:13:11 AM
 #11

At the rate at which governments are printing money, there should not be a problem buying any derivative and even bitcoins. People will just buy smaller quantities as the price goes up. A full bitcoin might be beyond the reach of millions of people now, but in some years from now, owning a single Satoshi might be a big accomplishment.

We might even see Satoshi's being subdivided into smaller units, who knows. ^smile^
Yes it might happen. The rate of a single satoshi might be good enough and holding a single satoshi would be profitable that time. But for that, the price for bitcoin need to be plenty high as compared to now. For now, with a single full bitcoin, we can be rich enough and can pump any small coin in the market.

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August 07, 2017, 08:15:59 AM
 #12

I was thinking about this earlier and I wonder what everyone's thoughts are on it. I think a lot of folks are trying to set an expected 'max value' on what bitcoin can and should be. I suspect it will enter the realm of something like the derivatives market where the total value of all derivatives is more than even all the money in the world.

If you think about it, the market cap is simply pegged on what folks are willing to 'part' with their bitcoin for. For that reason, it's completely possible that as it hits insane valuations, just about nobody will be willing to part with it. As this happens, at some point someone can say the current market cap of Bitcoin is so high that all the money in the world couldn't buy it all out. (and that would be just fine!) Just like the derivatives market with all the money in the world couldn't cover all the existing contracts, all the money in the world won't be enough to purchase what people are willing to sell their bitcoins for.

So while some folks see an upper threshold of something like all the gold (7 trillion) or world GDP ~80 Trillion, bitcoin could go even higher than that.
That should be interesting! 

Bitcoin is about to break all thresholds and there is nothing stopping it, it's like that train 777 that's set on aa automatic break and no one to stop it. All the alts have failed, Bitcoin cash the so called alt that horribly failed, all the government can try putting in the restrictions but they won't succeed at all. All the factors point that it's going to succeed and that's the best part.
Not all the altcoins have failed.
Bitcoin cash was dumped because it was just distributed for free and many users tried to encash their BCC. High sell orders were seen of Bitcoin Cash on various exchanges supporting BCC or BCH.  The demand for cryptocurrency is increasing rapidly.

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August 07, 2017, 08:37:04 AM
 #13



Yeah...insane valuations...I was commenting on the rapid rise August or so of 2016..when the value of BTC was $650 usd or some such.

Damn.....it's getting hard to mentally keep up Smiley

tripled in value, just this year...with all the seg witness FUD and drama

Be nice if they all played nicely from now on....no more FUD and the Seg Witness +2mb fork goes through w/o controversy ...

(what am I saying ..it is a bunch of silly nerds that love to get in slap fights about BTC stuff..that will never happen)

I crack myself up...

oh well, preparing for the next round of FUD, whatever that may be..or whenever for that matter...

(the wheel of FUD turns round and round)

Anyway, kinda impressed with all the BTC drama..it is doing as well as it is doing.......what price would it be w/o any FUD constraints of note within

the last year...staggers the mind ..again imho.

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August 07, 2017, 11:29:43 AM
 #14

At the rate at which governments are printing money, there should not be a problem buying any derivative and even bitcoins. People will just buy smaller quantities as the price goes up. A full bitcoin might be beyond the reach of millions of people now, but in some years from now, owning a single Satoshi might be a big accomplishment. We might even see Satoshi's being subdivided into smaller units, who knows. ^smile^

This is actually what is happening right now. Our fiat money can be converted to Bitcoin and we get corresponding value according to its latest market value. And this is why the value of Bitcoin is rising up because there is only a limited supply of Bitcoin while on the other hand the government can order for its printing press to print more money (that is why this is called fiat money...as ordered by).

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August 07, 2017, 11:41:20 AM
 #15

I was thinking about this earlier and I wonder what everyone's thoughts are on it. I think a lot of folks are trying to set an expected 'max value' on what bitcoin can and should be. I suspect it will enter the realm of something like the derivatives market where the total value of all derivatives is more than even all the money in the world.

If you think about it, the market cap is simply pegged on what folks are willing to 'part' with their bitcoin for. For that reason, it's completely possible that as it hits insane valuations, just about nobody will be willing to part with it. As this happens, at some point someone can say the current market cap of Bitcoin is so high that all the money in the world couldn't buy it all out. (and that would be just fine!) Just like the derivatives market with all the money in the world couldn't cover all the existing contracts, all the money in the world won't be enough to purchase what people are willing to sell their bitcoins for.

So while some folks see an upper threshold of something like all the gold (7 trillion) or world GDP ~80 Trillion, bitcoin could go even higher than that.
That should be interesting! 

Bitcoin is about to break all thresholds and there is nothing stopping it, it's like that train 777 that's set on aa automatic break and no one to stop it. All the alts have failed, Bitcoin cash the so called alt that horribly failed, all the government can try putting in the restrictions but they won't succeed at all. All the factors point that it's going to succeed and that's the best part.

All the ats have failed? Did you see the market cap of altcoins is 53% right now? With probably about 90% of that being top 10-20 coins?

Alts are extremele close to bitcoin and there are some promising projects just waiting to inch closer.
Yes, some major alts are close enough to bitcoin. As we can see the rocket speed of bitcoin, bitcoin will also take many alts with it. Altcoins will also take a great height. Some alts like ETH,LTC,DASH, etc will sure take a pump. It is getting difficult to predict any of the cryptocurrency market for now.
No Altcoin is close to Bitcoin in terms of marketcap. The second highest marketcap is of ETH which is less than half of that of Bitcoin even when volume is of almost 93 million.

Regarding Bitcoin marketcap surpassing whole volume of cash is definitely possible theoretically. But far away from where we are. Bitcoin still has marketcap of some Billions. It need to have huge demand for that and it will take many years. I doubt till then Bitcoin will survive.

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August 07, 2017, 01:09:07 PM
 #16

I was thinking about this earlier and I wonder what everyone's thoughts are on it. I think a lot of folks are trying to set an expected 'max value' on what bitcoin can and should be. I suspect it will enter the realm of something like the derivatives market where the total value of all derivatives is more than even all the money in the world.

If you think about it, the market cap is simply pegged on what folks are willing to 'part' with their bitcoin for. For that reason, it's completely possible that as it hits insane valuations, just about nobody will be willing to part with it. As this happens, at some point someone can say the current market cap of Bitcoin is so high that all the money in the world couldn't buy it all out. (and that would be just fine!) Just like the derivatives market with all the money in the world couldn't cover all the existing contracts, all the money in the world won't be enough to purchase what people are willing to sell their bitcoins for

Market cap is a shitty metric

And as such it could be equal to any value without meaning anything of value. If someone sells 1 satoshi for 1 dollar (if only just for fun), that would instantly mean quadrillions of dollars in market cap, but would that have any significance? There are 2 other metrics which should be used instead and together at that. These are the trading volume (provided you have real figures and not doctored or fake ones) and, obviously, the price itself. That would give you a bit of insight into and some understanding of how much the market (in this case, Bitcoin market) is actually worth in fiat terms in respect to other markets

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August 07, 2017, 02:19:10 PM
 #17

It is difficult to imagine that the Bitcoin market cap (around $55 billion as of now) will over-take that of gold (~7 trillion) at any point of time in the near future. Because gold is being used by close to 1 billion people around the globe, compared to approx. 10 million for Bitcoin.

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August 07, 2017, 02:28:16 PM
 #18

I was thinking about this earlier and I wonder what everyone's thoughts are on it. I think a lot of folks are trying to set an expected 'max value' on what bitcoin can and should be. I suspect it will enter the realm of something like the derivatives market where the total value of all derivatives is more than even all the money in the world.

If you think about it, the market cap is simply pegged on what folks are willing to 'part' with their bitcoin for. For that reason, it's completely possible that as it hits insane valuations, just about nobody will be willing to part with it. As this happens, at some point someone can say the current market cap of Bitcoin is so high that all the money in the world couldn't buy it all out. (and that would be just fine!) Just like the derivatives market with all the money in the world couldn't cover all the existing contracts, all the money in the world won't be enough to purchase what people are willing to sell their bitcoins for.

So while some folks see an upper threshold of something like all the gold (7 trillion) or world GDP ~80 Trillion, bitcoin could go even higher than that.
That should be interesting! 

Bitcoin is about to break all thresholds and there is nothing stopping it, it's like that train 777 that's set on aa automatic break and no one to stop it. All the alts have failed, Bitcoin cash the so called alt that horribly failed, all the government can try putting in the restrictions but they won't succeed at all. All the factors point that it's going to succeed and that's the best part.


We COULD be at $5000 by Christmas, but the only bump in the road that I can see now is the NYC agreement. If the hardforkers come back with the incredibly stupid segwit2x bullshit we are going to dump so hard in the middle of the highest prices ever seen on bitcoin.

You then know who to hate: Every miner involved, and every exchange involved, and of course, Jeff Garzik.

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August 09, 2017, 11:29:37 AM
 #19

Some of your predictions can really happen over time. When I think about it I realize that I don’t want to sell my Bitcoins, but better keep them for several years.
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August 09, 2017, 11:58:41 AM
 #20

there is no max value for BTC, it will just keep going up!
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