why no crash ?

[Grantmo]

I don't think bitcoin will EVER be illegal. Trading/exchanging bitcoin for USD could become illegal, but trading, spending, mining, bitcoin will never be against the law in the US. 

[ThatDGuy]

I don't think bitcoin will EVER be illegal. Trading/exchanging bitcoin for USD could become illegal, but trading, spending, mining, bitcoin will never be against the law in the US. 

I agree with this, I also think that (hopefully) the government will realize the potential in the future of cryptocurrency and will regulate as opposed to making it illegal.  While they wouldn't directly benefit from it, the indirect benefits of adoption by a large number of their constituency is a big indirect benefit if growth of cryptocurrencies continues.

[Kluge]

I guess this is where we are still in a wait and see mode.  The US govt. seeks to control all and smash anything threatening its ability to dominate economically.  Just look at the last 15 years as a small sample.  Yes they have not begun targeting CampBX and exchanges directly, but I do feel this is their first step in attempting to halt or disrupt Bitcoin.  This though, is getting slightly off topic and discussing politics here never produces a winner.

The DOJ doesn't do this stuff by piecemeal. They didn't shut down Megaupload.com one day. Freeze the banks another day. Arrest him another day. It happened all at once.

MtGox is on a .com, they could seize that anytime they want. Japan is more buddy buddy with the USA then New Zealand is. If they wanted to go after Bitcoin, every Bitcoin .com would be gone. CampBX would be gone. Bitpay, BitInstant, would be shut down, banks seized. They've both American companies.

The DOJ isn't after Bitcoin. It doesn't even make sense to go after them. Cryptocurrencies are here to stay. The genie is out of the bottle. They're better off tracking Bitcoin, keeping tabs on it, then pushing it further underground. Bitcoin isn't a threat to the USD. People are dreaming if they think it is. The DOJ will cut a deal with MtGox, let us have access to all the logs (website and transactions) and we'll leave you alone. Considering MtGox is telling people it will cost 25M to become legit in the USA (and they're planning to do it), they'll play very nice with the DOJ going forward.

This whole event was actually good news. People leaving MtGox for other exchanges. The sooner that happens, the better.

AFAIK, LEOs haven't yet had a test case on whether or not courts will agree with BTC classified as currency. This is that test case and could lead to other consequences if a clear precedent is set, inside and outside the US. Hopefully, Gox's defense team will directly challenge that particular point of contention instead of caving and hoping someone else will do their work. Odd as it sounds, I think this could be decided by the Supreme Court. What is currency, and how does the USG reconcile its laws normally reserved for USD to new alternative "currencies"? Can FinCEN and (for whatever fucked up reason) DHS regulate video-game currency as if it's the holy Dollar itself -- Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ripple? Can USG bureaucracies run around fining and shuttering any exchange which hasn't spent millions in USD? Is BTC taxable as currency, or a commodity?

I view this as recon, not war, but if given a crack, the USG might go through it like a floodgate going down.

[BitcoinAshley]

If US decides bitcoins is a threat they'll be worthless overnight.

How could this current action not cause the price to dip to double digits???

You, sir, are an idiot.

Look at the vast majority of historical examples and you'll see that this is not the case.

The price of drugs did not go DOWN after government intervention, they went way UP, despite sketchy OTC availability situations.
The price of education did not go DOWN after government intervention, it went way UP.
P2P torrent protocol is in INCREDIBLE demand and is wildly popular, despite government intervention.
Alcohol did not become less popular during Prohibition, even though you risked arrest and had to maintain secrecy going to a speakeasy.
The government only was able to destroy e-gold because it was centralized and had a single point of failure. Gox is nothing. Gox is a poorly performing exchange that many people are hooked on due to liquidity (a chicken/egg problem) and need a kick in the butt to go elsewhere. This is the kick in the butt. Gox is not a single point of failure. Gox dying would be great for bitcoin.

It only would crash to double digits because of idiots like you who panic sell because you do not understand how markets respond to government intervention/regulation. Fortunately, for the time being at least, it seems most people are smarter than that.

[RodeoX]

U.S.law is just a local ordinance  for bitcoin. Why would the rest of the world care? In fact U.S. regulation may be a huge win for overseas exchanges. Our regulators may be so short sighted and ignorant as to kill the golden goose for our own citizens, but they can't stop a savvy foreign power from embracing the future and running our shitty debt based economy into the ground.
I think that bitcoin is now too big to be stopped. There is nothing anyone can do to dissuade me from using it. How about you?

[bobdude17]

I think the big money is trying to hold Bitcoin stable through this conference. It's right in Silicon Valley, too important to showcase a wildly fluctuating product to investors. I think they might let go of the reigns after and it'll shoot up quick as companies start making grabs.

[BitChick]

Look at the vast majority of historical examples and you'll see that this is not the case.

The price of drugs did not go DOWN after government intervention, they went way UP, despite sketchy OTC availability situations.
The price of education did not go DOWN after government intervention, it went way UP.
P2P torrent protocol is in INCREDIBLE demand and is wildly popular, despite government intervention.
Alcohol did not become less popular during Prohibition, even though you risked arrest and had to maintain secrecy going to a speakeasy.

People do not like to be controlled.  There is some truth in this.

[oda.krell]

What you are missing is the overwhelming confluence of feedbacks that results in an attractor.

Candidate translation, original to Simple English: "many different things can become reasons for bitcoins growth, because bitcoin is growing very fast."

Please rate translation.

[Grantmo]

I think the big money is trying to hold Bitcoin stable through this conference. It's right in Silicon Valley, too important to showcase a wildly fluctuating product to investors. I think they might let go of the reigns after and it'll shoot up quick as companies start making grabs.

I agree that there may be some money trying to stabilize the price right now during the conference.  Once that money steps out, it should actually dip down I would think.  Seems like there is a good base above $100.  So, it may dip down to the 100-110 range.  

[DeathAndTaxes]

This is the US government going on the warpath against bitcoin.

There is nothing to date to suggest the US government is going to war against bitcoin.

FinCEN for example provided guidance on the applicability of existing regulation on exchanges.  If FinCEN believed Bitcoin was illegal they wouldn't be regulating it.  Now the regulation is a little heavy handed and in some parts nonsensical.  It likely will raise cost and stifle innovation but that is something a thousands different industries deal with everyday.

Even DHS warrant outlines the violations of MSB regulations as the reason not that Bitcoin is defacto illegal.  I mean if the government is seeking a seizure warrant for a drug dealer (an activity completely illegal) they don't cite technical violations of money transmitter laws they site the underlying illegal activity (namely selling illegal drugs).

This could change in the future but it always could have changed in the future. 

Also one can be "immune" to the US government by simply operating outside of the US (to include US residents).  An exchange could open tomorrow taking steps to prevent use by US residents and not deal with the hassle of US regulation.  Granted the "US market" is a lucrative one but also a regulatory minefield.  Some companies may opt to simply bypass the entire issue.

[Peter Lambert]

april 2013: bitcoin is skyrocketing, the community can hardly breath due to self confidence, price goes to the moon, hype is all around, nothing can stop us, tomorrow we own the world, but then...

due to "success" mtgox server fails, that´s all it takes: = panic all around, panic sell, C R A S H

may 2013: bitcoin is very volatile, a lot of people think it will be like in 2011 and go down, the community has no confidence, no hype, is bitcoin dead?, but then...

the us government starts seizing mtgox accounts = attack. = panic all around, but NO crash

what am i missing here? logic?

I don't think you have the cause-effect relationship correct for April. Bitcoin spiked and then crashed, causing huge jump in the MtGox order volume, which caused MtGox to have server failure.

People are overstating the effect MtGox has on the market.

[fitty]

This is the US government going on the warpath against bitcoin.

There is nothing to date to suggest the US government is going to war against bitcoin.

FinCEN for example provided guidance on the applicability of existing regulation on exchanges.  If FinCEN believed Bitcoin was illegal they wouldn't be regulating it.  Now the regulation is a little heavy handed and in some parts nonsensical.  It likely will raise cost and stifle innovation but that is something a thousands different industries deal with everyday.

Even DHS warrant outlines the violations of MSB regulations as the reason not that Bitcoin is defacto illegal.  I mean if the government is seeking a seizure warrant for a drug dealer (an activity completely illegal) they don't cite technical violations of money transmitter laws they site the underlying illegal activity (namely selling illegal drugs).

This could change in the future but it always could have changed in the future. 

Also one can be "immune" to the US government by simply operating outside of the US (to include US residents).  An exchange could open tomorrow taking steps to prevent use by US residents and not deal with the hassle of US regulation.  Granted the "US market" is a lucrative one but also a regulatory minefield.  Some companies may opt to simply bypass the entire issue.

Great post. MtGox was trying to operate in the USA without properly setting up the company. They're incompetent. That's not news.

[600watt]

If US decides bitcoins is a threat they'll be worthless overnight.

How could this current action not cause the price to dip to double digits???

You, sir, are an idiot.

Look at the vast majority of historical examples and you'll see that this is not the case.

The price of drugs did not go DOWN after government intervention, they went way UP, despite sketchy OTC availability situations.
The price of education did not go DOWN after government intervention, it went way UP.
P2P torrent protocol is in INCREDIBLE demand and is wildly popular, despite government intervention.
Alcohol did not become less popular during Prohibition, even though you risked arrest and had to maintain secrecy going to a speakeasy.
The government only was able to destroy e-gold because it was centralized and had a single point of failure. Gox is nothing. Gox is a poorly performing exchange that many people are hooked on due to liquidity (a chicken/egg problem) and need a kick in the butt to go elsewhere. This is the kick in the butt. Gox is not a single point of failure. Gox dying would be great for bitcoin.

It only would crash to double digits because of idiots like you who panic sell because you do not understand how markets respond to government intervention/regulation. Fortunately, for the time being at least, it seems most people are smarter than that.

i don´t think the drugs/alcohol analogy is correct. drugs i can use to get high. getting high is as basic a need as eating, drinking or fucking. try to roll up some bitcoins.

(on the other hand... bitcoin did bent me over occasionally )

[Quantum_Negatum]

Great post. MtGox was trying to operate in the USA without properly setting up the company. They're incompetent. That's not news.

https://twitter.com/MtGox

Gox addresses customer service complaints on a public twitter account. Their incompetence is news every day.

[bobdude17]

I think the big money is trying to hold Bitcoin stable through this conference. It's right in Silicon Valley, too important to showcase a wildly fluctuating product to investors. I think they might let go of the reigns after and it'll shoot up quick as companies start making grabs.

I agree that there may be some money trying to stabilize the price right now during the conference.  Once that money steps out, it should actually dip down I would think.  Seems like there is a good base above $100.  So, it may dip down to the 100-110 range.  

Perhaps, but I doubt it. I think after(or during) the conference a lot of new infrastructure is going to be revealed and that people and companies will hit gold rush mode and it will take off from there. I think Bitcoin is a lot farther along than even we think it is. Things move faster than press releases come out.

[Peter Lambert]

If US decides bitcoins is a threat they'll be worthless overnight.

How could this current action not cause the price to dip to double digits???

You, sir, are an idiot.

Look at the vast majority of historical examples and you'll see that this is not the case.

The price of drugs did not go DOWN after government intervention, they went way UP, despite sketchy OTC availability situations.
The price of education did not go DOWN after government intervention, it went way UP.
P2P torrent protocol is in INCREDIBLE demand and is wildly popular, despite government intervention.
Alcohol did not become less popular during Prohibition, even though you risked arrest and had to maintain secrecy going to a speakeasy.
The government only was able to destroy e-gold because it was centralized and had a single point of failure. Gox is nothing. Gox is a poorly performing exchange that many people are hooked on due to liquidity (a chicken/egg problem) and need a kick in the butt to go elsewhere. This is the kick in the butt. Gox is not a single point of failure. Gox dying would be great for bitcoin.

It only would crash to double digits because of idiots like you who panic sell because you do not understand how markets respond to government intervention/regulation. Fortunately, for the time being at least, it seems most people are smarter than that.

i don´t think the drugs/alcohol analogy is correct. drugs i can use to get high. getting high is as basic a need as eating, drinking or fucking. try to roll up some bitcoins.

(on the other hand... bitcoin did bent me over occasionally )

But bitcoins can allow people to gamble even though their regional overlords keep saying no to gambling. So I think it is a valid comparison

[Grantmo]

Perhaps, but I doubt it. I think after(or during) the conference a lot of new infrastructure is going to be revealed and that people and companies will hit gold rush mode and it will take off from there. I think Bitcoin is a lot farther along than even we think it is. Things move faster than press releases come out.

If there is a large increase in demand, then yes, it will go up. 

In the words of Walter White...  "Supply and demand rule this world." 

[Pzi4nk]

The question is how long this will last? The answer is 2-3 months give or take some major event such as gox going down or facebook adopting bitcoin. [emphasis by Pzi4nk]

Facebook is adopting bitcoin?

[darkmule]

I think the market already adjusted to reality back at the time of the "crash" (which still left its price well over what it had been before the bubble).  I think the market has realized it will survive Gox, regardless of what happens.  Any remaining exchanges will either get legal in the United States, if they want to and can do so and remain profitable, or find a more favorable market.

This really doesn't change anything except for the businesses that exist to convert to fiat.  Peer-to-peer transactions, such as for goods and services, remain beyond regulation, or at least beyond this regulation.

The fact is that if you want to operate a real business and make real money, you'll end up having to deal with real laws and real government agencies and real possibilities of real legal liability.  Now, that can be dealt with by actually complying with laws and regulations, or by staying below the radar enough nobody goes after you or just being too big to stop.  But staying below the radar, you don't get to do fun things like ACH transfers that you need to deliver the kinds of services people clearly want.

Obviously, outlaws will keep being outlaws.  But operations like Gox will have to get legal or get out of business, or operate in an area with a less oppressive regulatory scheme.  But good luck doing business in dollars and interfacing with the profitable U.S. market doing that, because anything connected to the U.S. banking establishment basically inherits the same regulatory scheme, directly or indirectly, and every first world country has such a scheme.

[Pzi4nk]

I think the market already adjusted to reality back at the time of the "crash" (which still left its price well over what it had been before the bubble).  I think the market has realized it will survive Gox, regardless of what happens.  Any remaining exchanges will either get legal in the United States, if they want to and can do so and remain profitable, or find a more favorable market.

This really doesn't change anything except for the businesses that exist to convert to fiat.  Peer-to-peer transactions, such as for goods and services, remain beyond regulation, or at least beyond this regulation.

The fact is that if you want to operate a real business and make real money, you'll end up having to deal with real laws and real government agencies and real possibilities of real legal liability.  Now, that can be dealt with by actually complying with laws and regulations, or by staying below the radar enough nobody goes after you or just being too big to stop.  But staying below the radar, you don't get to do fun things like ACH transfers that you need to deliver the kinds of services people clearly want.

Obviously, outlaws will keep being outlaws.  But operations like Gox will have to get legal or get out of business, or operate in an area with a less oppressive regulatory scheme.  But good luck doing business in dollars and interfacing with the profitable U.S. market doing that, because anything connected to the U.S. banking establishment basically inherits the same regulatory scheme, directly or indirectly, and every first world country has such a scheme. [emphasis by Pzi4nk]

I wonder if cryptocurrencies can be regulated as software.