$1,000,000 for a Bitcoin?

[nicolazza]

yeah i dont know about future of dollar, lets say that 1 btc will be worth a second hand car  

[bitsalame]

Why such a question in the first place? Total amount of bitcoin is limited, and total amount of dollar is growing forever, so does economy/debt, it is the most sure thing to happen, just no one knows how long it gonna take

This.

/Thread

If that happens, it will be a hyperdeflation and it will be the beginning of the death of bitcoins.

[bitcon]

no, bitcoin will never reach $1M.  and i am never wrong.

[bitsalame]

no, bitcoin will never reach $1M.  and i am never wrong.

A powerful argument lol

[uMMcQxCWELNzkt]

no, bitcoin will never reach $1M.  and i am never wrong.

Except that time when when the girl you met in that bar turned out to be a man.

[Kluge]

Why such a question in the first place? Total amount of bitcoin is limited, and total amount of dollar is growing forever, so does economy/debt, it is the most sure thing to happen, just no one knows how long it gonna take

There are two halves to "supply and demand," of course, and you might be forgetting the latter. If there's a better product than Bitcoin, or if users lose interest in it for some other reason - it's very possible BTC will hit $0 way before we come close even to $1,000.

[mgio]

Bitcoin will be lucky to hit $250 again.

Let's start small.

[Franktank]

no, bitcoin will never reach $1M.  and i am never wrong.

The logic behind this point is overwhelming...

[Terpie]

Anyone saying BTC will be worth anything other than $0 or $10,000+ in 3+ years is delusional.

To do a proper analysis, you need to speculate on the % of the market of total broad money that BTC holds.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2215rank.html

It appears there is something like $70+ trillion of broad money stock from all countries. It seems a very optimistic view for the 5-10 year horizon would be for BTC to gain 2-10% of broad money.

2% of broad money = $1.4 trillion market cap = $66,666/BTC (21 million coins)

10% of broad money = $7 trillion market cap = $333,000/BTC

[BitChick]

The real question is will $1,000,000 ever be worth 1 Bitcoin again once we overtake.

Interesting way to look at it.  There might come a day when we do not even care about what a "dollar" is worth.  It will be about how much BTC it costs, really.  So, the question is, will I be able to buy a really nice house for 1 BTC?  If so, I might be able to buy a few at that price! 

[awakening]

no, bitcoin will never reach $1M.  and i am never wrong.

theres no option for 140

 

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Good, sentiment is renormalizing.

[WishIStartedSooner]

yeah i dont know about future of dollar, lets say that 1 btc will be worth a second hand car  

I like this.

That's when I'll sell the first little bit I have and pay off my debts and keep a nestegg.

[Exoskeleton]

yeah i dont know about future of dollar, lets say that 1 btc will be worth a second hand car  

I like this.

That's when I'll sell the first little bit I have and pay off my debts and keep a nestegg.

Have a back up plan 

[Valerian77]

Too many dreamers are in here.

FIrstly BTC suffers a lot from its volatility.  If BTC raises too fast to high values that will be worth and finally its value will drop. I set a grow limit at 10% per month - everything beyond that is not good anymore. For long term that means BTC cannot grow more than 200% each year - means the exchange rate at the middle of next year will be around 1 BTC eq 300 USD.

ANd this Szenario already presumes that the rate itself is held more or less stable. That again presumes no effective government attacks and a limited speculation.

My recommendation is everybody starts to trade BTC on the current price base over  https://localbitcoins.com keeping the coins in the market will stabilize the course.

[David Rabahy]

Human beings tend to be just terrible at predicting things like this.  The first step is to admit we really do not know then we can start guessing realizing they are just guesses.

I've written an expression down that represents a number between 0 and 1,000,000.  If you can guess it then I'll give you a prize.  I'll give you a hint; it isn't an integer.  Anyone that thinks they can predict the number is fooling themselves but it can be fun guessing and rationalizing the guess.  Also, note the prize is variable; if the exchange rate between today's Bitcoin and today's US dollar goes to $0 then you can have all of my Bitcoins leftover at the moment it dies.  If the rate does top $1,000,000 then the prize will be 1 BTC.

[John Self]

Economics fail.

[bitsalame]

Human beings tend to be just terrible at predicting things like this.  The first step is to admit we really do not know then we can start guessing realizing they are just guesses.

I've written an expression down that represents a number between 0 and 1,000,000.  If you can guess it then I'll give you a prize.  I'll give you a hint; it isn't an integer.  Anyone that thinks they can predict the number is fooling themselves but it can be fun guessing and rationalizing the guess.  Also, note the prize is variable; if the exchange rate between today's Bitcoin and today's US dollar goes to $0 then you can have all of my Bitcoins leftover at the moment it dies.  If the rate does top $1,000,000 then the prize will be 1 BTC.

Your challenge is not applicable: market is governed by society, society is composed by humans, and human behavior is far from random.
In fact, it is quite predictable if you have the accurate variables and models.

Using your example: It is not about arbitrarily setting a number, but having a set of obscure and complex rules for the generation of this number between 0 and a million. If you give me enough time with this black box I will be able to approximate very closely and predict the next numbers.
Maybe not exact, but good enough.

That's how social sciences work, and the black box is our human mind.
We have enough empirical information about human behavior to estimate a possible outcome under certain variables.

[johnyj]

Why such a question in the first place? Total amount of bitcoin is limited, and total amount of dollar is growing forever, so does economy/debt, it is the most sure thing to happen, just no one knows how long it gonna take

There are two halves to "supply and demand," of course, and you might be forgetting the latter. If there's a better product than Bitcoin, or if users lose interest in it for some other reason - it's very possible BTC will hit $0 way before we come close even to $1,000.

A good point: "Users lose interest". The interest for anything could be lost and cause the value to drop. (I just bought an air conditioner with $200 and found out that it is terribly loud, I lost the intrest immediately and now wanted to sell it for $100)

But why don't people lose the interest for USD? Because it has universal equivalent property, unless they totally lost the intrest for everything, money can always exchange something they are interested in

So does bitcoin, if bitcoin can be used to buy anything in the world, then the interest for bitcoin will be higher than fiat money due to limited supply and ease of use, low fee, international payment... many advantages

[johnyj]

The real question is will $1,000,000 ever be worth 1 Bitcoin again once we overtake.

Interesting way to look at it.  There might come a day when we do not even care about what a "dollar" is worth.  It will be about how much BTC it costs, really.  So, the question is, will I be able to buy a really nice house for 1 BTC?  If so, I might be able to buy a few at that price! 

I just checked the April data, about 5 million houses sold each year

If all the real estate agencies accept bitcoin payments, then the total amount of coins are not enough to buy all the houses from a couple of years production