World War III and BTC

[tupacshomey]

I have a feeling if WWIII ensues, there will be a limit on the internet. Spread updates, false news  and what not. No doubt all traffic will be monitored everywhere.

[ironcross360]

ww3



ww2

[TomUnderSea]

There are rumors of war everywhere as you guys know...

I can write a whole book showing evidence for WWIII coming really soon... and my question for you is.. What kind of influence do you think such a war would have on Bitcoin?

When you say WW3 do you mean a full exchange of nuclear weapons between major powers?  Because if that happens the "currency " anyone will accept is food, medical supplies and fuel.  Those who are unlucky enough to survive to see the beginning of 10,000 years of blighted earth.

If you are envisioning something less than a double digit exchange of WMD,  then pretty much most of the current powers will still be around and international trade will continue.  Everything will be different but it will be the same.  Look at pre and post WW2 for clarity on that problem.

If you do not envision an exchange of WMD between major powers, why are we talking about this?

BTW, a simple guideline to who are major powers (today) is permanent membership on UN Security Council.  Regional powers are of interest to their neighbors but not the world.

For example, Israel engages Iran in Air Sea war to cripple WMD capabilities.   No shared borders so no land war. Iraq, Jordan, Syria, and Saudi Arabia will not be volunteering to be battle ground.   Dominant Air Sea power in region is US. US allies and China will press hard for US intervention to limit or stop conflict.   Russia will attempt to befriend Iran with limited success.

Minimal impact on world trade six months after end of war.

Feel free to send BTC if this was useful.    

[Dasneko]

WW3 Really?

Anyway a true world war would obliterate bitcoin since it relies on the worldwide network. In a world war the internet itself will be shredded to pieces and perhaps never be rebuilt into the free network that it is today but stay fractured and under the jurisdiction of local law like china or worse.

[RodeoX]

"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."

-Albert Einstein

[Zaih]

I have a feeling the internet would be a pretty broken concept if such events ensued...

But, up, I guess?

[zeocrash]

I'm not sure the global climate exists nowadays for a full blown world war.
The world is significantly different from the days of world war 1 and 2.
The major superpowers need each other too much to annihilate each other.

The modern age of warfare is all to do with small localized conflicts and proxy wars.

[TomUnderSea]

I'm not sure the global climate exists nowadays for a full blown world war.
The world is significantly different from the days of world war 1 and 2.
The major superpowers need each other too much to annihilate each other.

The modern age of warfare is all to do with small localized conflicts and proxy wars.

This was a common viewpoint before the Great War (later renamed WW1) and before WW2.

In the run up before each of those conflicts,  the thinkers claimed the Great Powers were to interconnected to have a big war.  The leaders prior to WW1 were all related by blood or marriage.   It was unthinkable that they would have more than a little proxy war somewhere.  Prior to WW2, world trade was a significant cohesive force and WW1 had shown how costly war is.

We will always have another war.  It will always be longer, deadlier, and more expensive than planned.  I expect we are transitioning to a period when wars will be more about belief systems than  economic access.  Conversion at the point of the sword with morality enforced by the government.   This also means wars will be fought against enemies that are dehumanised.   War time atrocities will become more common as the enemy is less human.  This leads to the use of WMDs against civilian targets.

Sorry,  very depressing but this the trend I see.  Bitcoin will be valuable as long as there is a communication medium to support it and traders moving goods between money systems.

[rebelrat]

The way things stand since the crash of 2008 - any little thing can set things off -
just look at Greece, Spain, Portugal.  How long to do you think that the young
and unemployed will hold still?

[Dasneko]

I'm not sure the global climate exists nowadays for a full blown world war.
The world is significantly different from the days of world war 1 and 2.
The major superpowers need each other too much to annihilate each other.

The modern age of warfare is all to do with small localized conflicts and proxy wars.

This was a common viewpoint before the Great War (later renamed WW1) and before WW2.

In the run up before each of those conflicts,  the thinkers claimed the Great Powers were to interconnected to have a big war.  The leaders prior to WW1 were all related by blood or marriage.   It was unthinkable that they would have more than a little proxy war somewhere.  Prior to WW2, world trade was a significant cohesive force and WW1 had shown how costly war is.

We will always have another war.  It will always be longer, deadlier, and more expensive than planned.  I expect we are transitioning to a period when wars will be more about belief systems than  economic access.  Conversion at the point of the sword with morality enforced by the government.   This also means wars will be fought against enemies that are dehumanised.   War time atrocities will become more common as the enemy is less human.  This leads to the use of WMDs against civilian targets.

Sorry,  very depressing but this the trend I see.  Bitcoin will be valuable as long as there is a communication medium to support it and traders moving goods between money systems.

Try draw as many similarities as you like but... Can any major power even survive without importing nowdays? They are consuming everything from food to metal and only perhaps Russia has the diversity of resources to piss off the world. Even then they dont have the infrastructure to utilize it.

Todays super powers simply cant afford to cut trade relations. Especially since their enemies are their greatest trading partners.

[poppnfresh7]

Informative post! Keep em coming 

[Malawi]

Right now there is a lot possible starting point of world war III.
1..Japan and China >sinkaku islands,  rich in oil and gas.

Possible, but not likely.
The costs are to high compared to the possible effect of such actions.

2. China & Taiwan and Philippines> panatag shoal and spartly islands both rich in oil and gas, Us will be drag because of mutual defense treaty.

Meh

China has more to gain from stability in the region, even though they may show some strength and be disruptive.

3.NorthKorea, its brewing. In times of war 90 percent possibility china will help north korea.

Meh.

NK might do something stupid. (Which is not helped by US's confronting line -NK is like an attention seeking child and US plays along instead of being the sensible one at the sideline.)
But I doubt China will step in except as negotiators.
I think China sees NK as a loose cannon and not like something worth defending too much.

4. If Israel attacks Iran. US and Russia possible china will be drag  to war because its one of their biggest oil supplier.

Meh.
Doubt Israel will do any first attack, they have enough problems as it is, and Iran knows that US will step in if they attack.
If there were to become a conflict, russia might support with equipment, but they will get a deal to get their oil anyways.
Don't think US would risk being tangled up in another war if they can avoid it.

5. Syria. If Israel attacks Syria. Russia and US will be drag to war.

Meh.
Israel has nothing to win by this, and Syria does not have a proper rule ATM.
Would not be too surprised if there were some border-attacks by Syrian warlords though. But not something that is likely to escalate.


Remember that China own a huge amount of US debt. If they wanted to hurt the US, they would simply sell their debt and collapse the dollar. They could also stop export to US. This would hurt both nations. But China could still export to europe knowing that a lot of the export would be resold to the US, but then at a higher price which would hurt US more.

[hillton]

There is a big possibility that world war III even in few months time. I thinks bitcoin's/gold/silver/platinum  price will skyrocket if people sees this as their last resort to store and retains the value of their money.

[lemontreecmta]

Who do you think will fight if there's ww3? China/ US?

[Mac21]

Please write the book.

[imaclick]

Right now there is a lot possible starting point of world war III.
1..Japan and China >sinkaku islands,  rich in oil and gas.

Possible, but not likely.
The costs are to high compared to the possible effect of such actions.

2. China & Taiwan and Philippines> panatag shoal and spartly islands both rich in oil and gas, Us will be drag because of mutual defense treaty.

Meh

China has more to gain from stability in the region, even though they may show some strength and be disruptive.

3.NorthKorea, its brewing. In times of war 90 percent possibility china will help north korea.

Meh.

NK might do something stupid. (Which is not helped by US's confronting line -NK is like an attention seeking child and US plays along instead of being the sensible one at the sideline.)
But I doubt China will step in except as negotiators.
I think China sees NK as a loose cannon and not like something worth defending too much.

4. If Israel attacks Iran. US and Russia possible china will be drag  to war because its one of their biggest oil supplier.

Meh.
Doubt Israel will do any first attack, they have enough problems as it is, and Iran knows that US will step in if they attack.
If there were to become a conflict, russia might support with equipment, but they will get a deal to get their oil anyways.
Don't think US would risk being tangled up in another war if they can avoid it.

5. Syria. If Israel attacks Syria. Russia and US will be drag to war.

Meh.
Israel has nothing to win by this, and Syria does not have a proper rule ATM.
Would not be too surprised if there were some border-attacks by Syrian warlords though. But not something that is likely to escalate.


Remember that China own a huge amount of US debt. If they wanted to hurt the US, they would simply sell their debt and collapse the dollar. They could also stop export to US. This would hurt both nations. But China could still export to europe knowing that a lot of the export would be resold to the US, but then at a higher price which would hurt US more.

I think the current world power balance are pretty stable, too stable for something like WWIII, things going on in south china sea would be nothing bigger than a conflict at the worst. and most likely it would never happen. And China would never risk everything to support NK b/c that's against it's best interest

[alkuluku]

"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."

-Albert Einstein

I wanted to post this.

[niothor]

There are rumors of war everywhere as you guys know...

A new game coming out? 

[btc237ftw]

4. If Israel attacks Iran. US and Russia possible china will be drag  to war because its one of their biggest oil supplier.

Meh.
Doubt Israel will do any first attack, they have enough problems as it is, and Iran knows that US will step in if they attack.
If there were to become a conflict, russia might support with equipment, but they will get a deal to get their oil anyways.
Don't think US would risk being tangled up in another war if they can avoid it.

Israel is a very small country, it is smaller than most states in the USA and is surrounded by tons of enemy countries, just open the middle east map to see the sizes. Now, with that in mind, you need to look at the history of Israel and the Jewish people. Every generation there is some nation, at least one, that wants to annihilate all Jews from the face of the earth, this is why a country that is only 65 years old and had so many wars already. Wars with Egypt, wars with Syria, wars where Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon joined together to destroy Israel and many many more. Just look at the history. Now, as you understand Israel takes threats seriously, as history proved that those threatening to kill Jews, once they are capable or think they are capable of doing so, they act on it.
Just like in WWII the Nazi's decided to kill every Jew on planet earth and did what they did to kill over 6,000,000... So, what I'm getting at here is simple: today Iran keeps on saying (publicly) that they want to destroy Israel completely and remove it from the world's map. While saying that they keep on advancing their nuclear capabilities and once they have that... there will be a time + place in history, once again, where a nation that has intentions on killing Jews will have the capabilities, or think they have the capabilities to do so will emerge.
This means Israel wants to prevent that situation from ever happening, and therefore if Iran keeps going nuclear as they do right now... there will be no choice for Israel but to attack Iran in a defensive attack. Just like when a person tells you he wants to kill you and your entire family, he hates you deeply and then he starts to load a gun... You might tell yourself that as long as he doesn't have a means of killing you, let him talk, but once he has the gun, once he has the bullets and once he starts putting the bullets inside the gun you might want to stop him before he does what he does to you and your family.

So all you need to do in order to know the chances of this scenario happening is to check how far Iran advanced and is advancing with their "Gun-Loading" or in our case - making of nuclear bomb(s).

5. Syria. If Israel attacks Syria. Russia and US will be drag to war.

Meh.
Israel has nothing to win by this, and Syria does not have a proper rule ATM.
Would not be too surprised if there were some border-attacks by Syrian warlords though. But not something that is likely to escalate.

You need to watch the news more carefully. Israel doesn't aim to attack Syria itself, but Hizballah is getting armed by Syria, and as you might know, Hizballah wants to destroy Israel, and already poses amazing arsenal of weapons and arms... Israel must make sure Hizballah doesn't get strategic weapons capable of destroying cities and important factories and areas in Israel country... Again, the size of Israel is very important here, because there's almost no strategic-depth. If a rocket is fired from Lebanon (Hizballah) to Israel, there is no sea, or almost any land for it to fly above... which means the time it takes for the rocket to hit is very short and also it means that less-advanced rockets (rockets that are capable of flying shorter distances, carry less explosives etc) can hurt Israel easily.

Therefore, when Hizballah keeps on threatening  to destroy Tel-Aviv, there is the same story here... while they just "talk", let them talk... but once you see they are arming with weapons capable of doing what they want to do... Israel must defend itself and prevent such arms of ever getting to Hizballah.
Therefore, Israel already attack deliveries from Syria to Hizballah and after these attacks Syria... instead of saying they wouldn't give Hizballah weapons and arms... said they will give them their most advanced weapons and they will do it asap! Furthermore, Iran and Russia are backing-up Syria by giving them weapons, troops and diplomatic support but if that's not enough, recently Russia gave Syria s-300 rockets, which are super-advanced anti-aircraft weapons. Furthermore, the officers activating these rockets are Russians and it's already setup in Syria.

This is like saying to Israel to "stop defend itself against weapons and arms delivery to Hizballah by Syria"... but just as you thought it couldn't get any worse, Russia clearly stated that Israel must "stop attacking Syria" which we all know is not "attack" but a pre-attack-defensive measures.

So, just imagine the next missile cargo going from Syria to Hizballah, and I'm talking about chemical weapons and advanced rockets here... Israel will look at the cargo and... what? do nothing?! would you?!? at that point, the cargo delivery will have to be stopped, and then Russia should activate their s-300 missiles, and then we have the beginning of a WWIII.

I have so much more to tell you guys...as I said I can write a book about all this. but I think, it's enough for now. Just look at the nations involved here and go research on your own a little bit. You can come back here and ask questions - I would answer them, mostly.

One more answer to a question asked here before I wrap this reply up:

Who do you think will fight if there's ww3? China/ US?

Generally speaking there will be 2 sides for the conflict, from the one hand we have USA + Many countries in Europe, like France, England, Italy, Ireland etc and also South Korean and Japan and from the other hand we have Russia+China + North Korea + Iran + Syria etc.

If we take a look at a complete list I think we get to about 70 countries involved in this thing... just look at the current Sea-Military-exercise taking place near Iran by USA and 40 more countries together exercising sea-mining removals and attacks from sea.
(Yes, it is taking place as we speak).

[Dasneko]

I honestly wonder exactly how many countries will jump in to aid America. I get the feeling that most are tired of their bullshit. Its not like they are going to turn on America but exactly how willing are they to help?