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Author Topic: Out in the wild - people think Bitcoins will drop to 0  (Read 7114 times)
AngelusWebDesign
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June 22, 2011, 03:50:40 AM
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People are apparently staying away because they don't understand the value of BTC, and for some reason they think the value could reach 0 again! 

Of course, we know that's not likely, but some people believe just that...

http://www.bitcoin-board.com/index.php/Common-opinion-Bitcoin-mining-too-good-to-be-true
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June 22, 2011, 04:00:04 AM
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They will be back in once they realize what we are going through are merely growing pains. It makes sense that bitcoin face these things early on, because surviving varied vectors of attack - even on the most vulnerable parts, will make the entire enterprise stronger.

You have to go through these 'tempering' events to make it in the real world. That applies to code, ideas, and people.


fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
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June 22, 2011, 04:01:01 AM
 #3

People are apparently staying away because they don't understand the value of BTC, and for some reason they think the value could reach 0 again! 

Of course, we know that's not likely, but some people believe just that...

http://www.bitcoin-board.com/index.php/Common-opinion-Bitcoin-mining-too-good-to-be-true
The reason why it won't happen is because the difficulty level keeps going up, so every day it becomes more and more expensive to mine, thus giving the coins value through their creators. If you ask a miner how much their bitcoins are worth, they will all tell you around $30-$40 a piece. That is a fair price considering the mining difficultys/electricity/time it is taking to make these things. That is with the current difficulty level, and awareness of the coins. If you were to ask someone who knows nothing about bitcoins, what they are worth, they would simply say "worthless". It's all about perception in life, one mans trash is the next mans treasure, one mans pain is the next mans pleasure.

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AngelusWebDesign
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June 22, 2011, 04:02:34 AM
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Problem is, it doesn't matter how hard it is to mine them. There are just as many coins being created, whether 100 miners made them or 150. Why should people pay more for bitcoin just because more miners were necessary to create them?

Now the bitcoins themselves are more secure, the higher the difficulty level. So perhaps there IS some rationale to BTC price going up with difficulty...
Terpie
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June 22, 2011, 04:05:06 AM
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This whole episode will be forgotten within 2 weeks.
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June 22, 2011, 04:07:44 AM
 #6

Problem is, it doesn't matter how hard it is to mine them. There are just as many coins being created, whether 100 miners made them or 150. Why should people pay more for bitcoin just because more miners were necessary to create them?

Now the bitcoins themselves are more secure, the higher the difficulty level. So perhaps there IS some rationale to BTC price going up with difficulty...

I don't think you understand angelus, eventually it will take massive amounts of computing power to generate bitcoins. That IS the value you're looking for right there. Try telling someone who just invested 20thousand dollars on mining equipment,hundreds in electrical costs, and months of his time, that his coins are worthless.

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gusti
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June 22, 2011, 04:08:06 AM
 #7

gentlemen, no need to worry about the price eventually going up or down, the bitcoin ecosystem will find it's equilibrium.
and even the owner of one (1) btc will be greatly rewarded over time

If you don't own the private keys, you don't own the coins.
niemivh
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June 22, 2011, 04:09:39 AM
 #8

That's why I'm having my place of employment do direct deposit with BTC from now on.

I'll keep my politics out of your economics if you keep your economics out of my politics.

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June 22, 2011, 04:11:25 AM
 #9

That's why I'm having my place of employment do direct deposit with BTC from now on.

You got them to do that for you? WOW NICE !  Grin

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AngelusWebDesign
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June 22, 2011, 04:12:16 AM
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Excellent idea -- if your employer will do it Smiley

Of course, you'd have to convince your electric company, grocery store, etc...
unk
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June 22, 2011, 04:24:07 AM
 #11

The reason why it won't happen is because the difficulty level keeps going up, so every day it becomes more and more expensive to mine, thus giving the coins value through their creators.

you say this many times, but it's simply incorrect except as a complex psychological matter that, as applied to any specific context, requires empirical validation.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_costs

you've also claimed that difficulty cannot go down; this is incorrect too. it can and has.
dinker
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June 22, 2011, 04:27:58 AM
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i predict bitcoin values will drop below zero, and you will have to pay me to dispose your stinky coins for you. so hand over them coins now while i can still take them in for free. this is a limited offer.

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FlipPro
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June 22, 2011, 04:33:46 AM
 #13

The reason why it won't happen is because the difficulty level keeps going up, so every day it becomes more and more expensive to mine, thus giving the coins value through their creators.

you say this many times, but it's simply incorrect except as a complex psychological matter that, as applied to any specific context, requires empirical validation.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_costs

you've also claimed that difficulty cannot go down; this is incorrect too. it can and has.
So basically every broke person that just found out about bitcoin on this forum is trying to make the coin crash, so the difficulty can drop, and so they can buy in at pennys? IT'S not dropping ANY TIME SOON.. Neither is the RATE.

They are trading at $25 a coin on ebay FFS

http://shop.ebay.com/i.html?_from=R40&_trksid=m570.l1313&_nkw=bitcoin&_sacat=See-All-Categories

This is after the whole mtgox thing, they were almost at $40 before this whole bullshit apocalypto crash happened.

I want people to buy-in and participate, but the way that so many have gone about this has been so childish it's made me sick to my stomach.

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Crystal Excursion
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June 22, 2011, 04:35:49 AM
 #14

Not Believing in something does not make it any less real, The Camels Nose is in the Tent, bitcoin is happening !

Hey.. Skype Me.. Beffjaker
see my website, PM if Interested, Thanks !
unk
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June 22, 2011, 04:40:50 AM
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So basically every broke person that just found out about bitcoin on this forum is trying to make the coin crash, so the difficulty can drop, and so they can buy in at pennys? IT'S not dropping ANY TIME SOON.. Neither is the RATE.

please don't impugn my motives. i've likely been with bitcoin longer than you have, and i have a very large collection of coins. i have no plans to buy (or sell) any anytime soon, and i don't have an account on any of the exchanges.

it's silly that i have to say that to make a factual point. i was not making a prediction about bitcoin prices or difficulty. i was simply correcting factual errors in your post, and i wouldn't have bothered except that you've been spreading misinformation in many discussions. i'm concerned that novices and potential bitcoin users might actually believe you.

bitcoin has many strengths (though i'm no particular fan of the presently prominent block chain, given its particular, path-dependent history, the economic context it occupies, and the false promotion it has received). let it succeed without vigorously promoting it with either errors or lies. otherwise, you come across fairly transparently as the kind of pump-and-dumper who spams yahoo finance about penny stocks.
gusti
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June 22, 2011, 04:43:26 AM
 #16

Not Believing in something does not make it any less real, The Camels Nose is in the Tent, bitcoin is happening !

"the better proof that the al coran is arab, is that not a single camel is mentioned inside it" Jorge Luis Borges

If you don't own the private keys, you don't own the coins.
elggawf
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June 22, 2011, 04:43:32 AM
 #17

Of course, we know that's not likely, but some people believe just that...

No, we don't "know it's not likely"... and that might be part of the reason people approach it with some skepticism. Their loss, if it turns out they're wrong, "fortune favors the bold".

Having said that, it's doing far better than I thought it would. We come out on the other side of Tradehill resuming trading with a crash barely down $5, and it's rebounded well and in my extremely uneducated opinion the market depth is looking quite healthy at the moment. We'll have to wait and see what happens when all the people burned by Mt Gox get access to their BTC - if a lot of them cut and run as fast as they can we're in for another wild ride... but if even those who do want to cash out do so in an unemotional, logical way I think the BTC can weather that storm too.

People have been saying "it's going to die any day now" for over a month now, and we're still back up above the long term weighted exponential averages. I'm not a Bitcoin investor (at the time of writing I have absolutely no holdings besides what's in my mining pool account), but I think it's looking pretty good right now.

The Bitcoin "economy" is looking pretty healthy right now for the rape it's just been through, probably due in large part to die hards who still believe. Hopefully it doesn't turn out they're all delusional, and we grow an actual economy.

^_^
NO_SLAVE
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June 22, 2011, 04:51:13 AM
 #18


I don't think you understand angelus, eventually it will take massive amounts of computing power to generate bitcoins. That IS the value you're looking for right there. Try telling someone who just invested 20thousand dollars on mining equipment,hundreds in electrical costs, and months of his time, that his coins are worthless.

something only has value if someone is willing to pay for it.
.....and there does seem to be a market, although today BTC is trading below their creation costs.
Looks like a buy.
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June 22, 2011, 04:52:57 AM
 #19

So basically every broke person that just found out about bitcoin on this forum is trying to make the coin crash, so the difficulty can drop, and so they can buy in at pennys? IT'S not dropping ANY TIME SOON.. Neither is the RATE.

please don't impugn my motives. i've likely been with bitcoin longer than you have, and i have a very large collection of coins. i have no plans to buy (or sell) any anytime soon, and i don't have an account on any of the exchanges.

it's silly that i have to say that to make a factual point. i was not making a prediction about bitcoin prices or difficulty. i was simply correcting factual errors in your post, and i wouldn't have bothered except that you've been spreading misinformation in many discussions. i'm concerned that novices and potential bitcoin users might actually believe you.

bitcoin has many strengths (though i'm no particular fan of the presently prominent block chain, given its particular, path-dependent history, the economic context it occupies, and the false promotion it has received). let it succeed without vigorously promoting it with either errors or lies. otherwise, you come across fairly transparently as the kind of pump-and-dumper who spams yahoo finance about penny stocks.
It's hard to see anyone's true colors on this site. The guy who made this post did it to promote his crap forum, and here we are debating your motives. I never attacked you personally, but me and you both know that that's whats going on here. People are taking advantage of the open source nature of this community, to slant the odds to their favor through forceful methods. I was technically wrong about the difficulty level never going down, and I'm sorry if I misinformed anyone, but what I meant was that if the projects hold up, and everything keeps exploding the way it has, I don't see difficulty ever going down.. But that really isn't a bad thing for you, that harder it is to mine them, the more your currency is worth.

Here's the chart, while there have been a few downswings in difficulty, the line is predictable, and in steady upward motion.


But overall you were right, Bitcoin difficulty can drop, but it's highly unlikely to ever drop to the point it was even 2 months ago. There is simply to many people signing on to  the system now (myself included)

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elggawf
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June 22, 2011, 04:58:17 AM
 #20

Your graph hasn't done anything to demonstrate that your assertion that price follows difficulty is correct.

Majority of buyers don't give a shit about mining difficulty/costs, and so it doesn't factor in to what they're willing to pay. Higher mining costs might cause more miners to hold on to what they mine, marginally affecting supply (the coins mined each day are a tiny fraction of the coins that change hands every day), but at the end of the day a Bitcoin is only worth whatever you can sell it to someone for.

And there's always gonna be some punk kid at college in a dorm with 3 5970s who doesn't care about his costs and just wants a dimebag. Unk, Angelus and others are therefore correct - the price doesn't follow difficulty.

^_^
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