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Author Topic: Can I gain an edge in crypto trading?  (Read 861 times)
cryptaolee
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August 17, 2017, 09:59:59 AM
 #1

Hi all,

I'm new to the crypto space. I played professional poker for the past many years and thinking about trying out trading cryptos. However, I am skeptical from a game theoretic point of view as to whether I can gain an edge.

In poker part of your edge comes from knowing who your opponents are. With that information you can select your opposition to a certain degree, thereby increasing your edge. In the world of trading this is not really possible. I guess maybe some exchanges will have softer competition than others but you don't know exactly who you're trading with (amateurs or pros).

From what I understand the main skills needed is to predict trends and understand the potential of the new technologies popping up. On a micro-level that would translate to:
a) Being first at receiving market news and understanding how they will affect certain coins and the market as a whole.
b) Understanding market dynamics including being able to use a variety of charts to identify possible patterns.
c) Have a technical understanding of the technologies behind the different coins and thereby being able to estimate their potential.

1) Am I missing some?
2) How would you weigh these skill sets?
3) Is it possible to gain an edge without much technical knowledge?

4) Someone told me around 1 in 10 traders are able to beat the market. Not sure where he has the number from though or if was on the stock or crypto market. Has anyone heard a similar or different number?

Lastly if anyone can link to previous best threads on:
- Best books for learning trading.
- Trading strategies in general

Sorry if this post comes off messy. I still have a bunch of questions but I'm gonna cut it short here and save the rest for a different post.
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August 17, 2017, 10:37:07 AM
 #2

I think that all those things that you mention (news, understanding graphs and all) are important. As many people are guided by them, you can somehow predict tendences by knowing how people usually react to those signals.

However, I think you can get an edge somehow being vigilant of just the trading history everyday. When you see a lot of "sells" coming in, you know that thing is likely to continue selling for a while. Same thing when you see a lot of "buys".

Seems to simple, but it's so true. At the very least the buys indicate that if you buy now, you (very probably) would be able to see 1% higher, doing some profit.

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August 19, 2017, 03:53:04 AM
 #3

You seems to know a lot already and you can easily apply them when you do cryptocurrency trading. Trading entails some form of discipline and without it it can really be a mess and making nice profit can be near impossible. I guess that you know what you are talking about. I am wishing you all the luck that you need in case you would really go and venture in cryptocurrency trading.

 
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August 19, 2017, 06:39:30 AM
 #4

The points you mentioned above are accurate and important for a trader. Yes it is possible to gain an edge without knowing any technical knowledge but it will take time as it is possible only through a lot of experience. Trading for a long term will give you experience and knowledge about how to trade . Once we get the experience on trading we will better on planning strategies and that will give you an edge from others and you will be able to get good profits.



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August 19, 2017, 06:53:17 AM
 #5

You've listed some decent points, but personally I think it's heavily depends on what kind of trading you're planning on doing, shortterm(daytrading) vs long term trading(hodling). Personally I think the points you stated(a,b,c) are more towards longterm trading. When doing short term trading, I think it depends alot on hype/publicity/shills of a certain cryptocurrency. Let's use NEO(NEO) and Bitquence(BQX) as an example. They've been kinda steady on a low price in the past, but then alot of people on Facebook groups and on Reddit started shilling on these coins weeks to months ago, guess what happened? They skyrocketed, since everyone got too excited with the prices and started buying. This is also a perfect example of FOMO or "fear of missing out".




Unfortunately I can't comment on your poker skills being relevant or not in the world of crypto trading since I have little to no knowledge in poker strategies. I suggest you start trading using small amounts first, to get a feel of the markets.

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August 19, 2017, 07:04:41 AM
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All you said are well and good. I just want to add though that in crypto all that ta is only a small part in cryptotrading. Since this is a market where fud and hype prevails, you can also consider feeling the mood of the market. If you see some coins getting some hype or suddenly get much attention here in bitcointalk, it will probably pump.

 
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August 19, 2017, 08:48:13 AM
 #7

I could say that you mention the most important part:
being able to estimate their potential.

Trust me, if you want to put money and HODL,
You need to realy weigh it.
Many discussion this forum is something that you also have to weight.
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August 19, 2017, 10:06:26 AM
 #8

I'm new to the crypto space. I played professional poker for the past many years and thinking about trying out trading cryptos. However, I am skeptical from a game theoretic point of view as to whether I can gain an edge.

In poker part of your edge comes from knowing who your opponents are. With that information you can select your opposition to a certain degree, thereby increasing your edge. In the world of trading this is not really possible. I guess maybe some exchanges will have softer competition than others but you don't know exactly who you're trading with (amateurs or pros).

interesting. i played professionally online (MTT grinder) until black friday. then i stumbled onto bitcoin after hearing about sealswithclubs (that didn't pan out) and never looked back. it sounds like your background is live poker?

it's all about running the numbers. chart and candlestick patterns provide setups with a certain probability > 50% of succeeding. the key is to manage your risk, so that you cut out any big losses. you want big gains, small gains, small losses. once you can analyze charts well enough to consistently make EV+ trades based on proper risk/reward, you can be a consistent winner even if you are only winning 50-60% of trades.

i would focus first and foremost on learning classical charting techniques and range expansion. i highly recommend looking into bollinger bands. good luck.

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August 19, 2017, 12:56:10 PM
 #9

However, I think you can get an edge somehow being vigilant of just the trading history everyday. When you see a lot of "sells" coming in, you know that thing is likely to continue selling for a while. Same thing when you see a lot of "buys".

Seems to simple, but it's so true. At the very least the buys indicate that if you buy now, you (very probably) would be able to see 1% higher, doing some profit.

This seems to good to be true. I saw a random youtube video with a guy (who didn’t come off as someone I would take advice from) advocating this strategy of basically watching candlestick charts irt and selling when prices are dropping and buying when they increase. Is anyone here practicing this successfully?

You've listed some decent points, but personally I think it's heavily depends on what kind of trading you're planning on doing, shortterm(daytrading) vs long term trading(hodling). Personally I think the points you stated(a,b,c) are more towards longterm trading. When doing short term trading, I think it depends alot on hype/publicity/shills of a certain cryptocurrency. Let's use NEO(NEO) and Bitquence(BQX) as an example. They've been kinda steady on a low price in the past, but then alot of people on Facebook groups and on Reddit started shilling on these coins weeks to months ago, guess what happened? They skyrocketed, since everyone got too excited with the prices and started buying. This is also a perfect example of FOMO or "fear of missing out".

That’s a good point and one I wanted to incorporate in OP but left out to keep it simple.
Initially I set out to just buy and hold BTC and ETH (+1 year unless they come crashing down) but digging deeper into the crypto space I am now curious about trading in any time frame (I have the time).
What are the rules of thumb in terms of time intervals when people talk about short/long-term trading?
Nice examples. I looked up NEO and looking at the graph from the launch of the coin, the sudden increase is even clearer.
How do you handle a scenario like that? Say you notice a coin getting a lot of hype months after going steady and prices increase slightly – do you buy in even if you don’t believe in long term prospects but just to ride the ‘pump’ and sell before the 'dump'?
On FOMO: When/how do you decide that you are late for the party?


All you said are well and good. I just want to add though that in crypto all that ta is only a small part in cryptotrading. Since this is a market where fud and hype prevails, you can also consider feeling the mood of the market. If you see some coins getting some hype or suddenly get much attention here in bitcointalk, it will probably pump.

This mainly applies to short-term trading, correct? Hence mjglqw’s post above.


it sounds like your background is live poker?

Actually 99% of my poker career was online Wink. 6-10 max cash, then HU cash and lastly a short period of playing Spin’n’Gos.

i would focus first and foremost on learning classical charting techniques and range expansion. i highly recommend looking into bollinger bands. good luck.

Nice. Do you have any recommendations for a good book/resource for learning about this?
I have had the titles below recommended already:
“Top 10 Trading Setups: How to Find them, When to Trade them, How to Make Money with them” - by Ivaylo Ivanov
“Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns”- Thomas Bulkowski

Does anyone know these books?


Thanks all for the inputs. Much appreciated.
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August 19, 2017, 01:48:52 PM
 #10

To the OP seems not totally a newbie in crypto as you know already some big things to consider in the market like in gambling you definitely learn good result there. And the edge in gambling is on yourself ,not on the edge.

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August 20, 2017, 06:46:22 AM
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it sounds like your background is live poker?

Actually 99% of my poker career was online Wink. 6-10 max cash, then HU cash and lastly a short period of playing Spin’n’Gos.

if you were beating those games, then you can beat this market. i'd get in now before it gets overtaken by high frequency algo trading. there is still so much money waiting to enter this market, too; i prefer to keep most of my trading funds in BTC, and use that as collateral to 1x-10x long/short BTC, or to trade altcoins (no margin).

i would focus first and foremost on learning classical charting techniques and range expansion. i highly recommend looking into bollinger bands. good luck.

Nice. Do you have any recommendations for a good book/resource for learning about this?
I have had the titles below recommended already:
“Top 10 Trading Setups: How to Find them, When to Trade them, How to Make Money with them” - by Ivaylo Ivanov
“Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns”- Thomas Bulkowski

Does anyone know these books?

Thanks all for the inputs. Much appreciated.

honestly, i'm mostly self-taught. i did extremely well partly by being in the right place at the right time in this market, and by having good teachers (starting with lucif/masterluc here on bitcointalk). i picked up a lot of pointers in the tradingview.com crypto chat (but now it's pretty much overrun with poloniex trollbox refugees, so the quality has gone down a lot). as far as book recommendations, i can only offer "Bollinger on Bollinger Bands."

this gives a good taste of what i mean by classical charting techniques though:
https://twitter.com/bbands/status/888432347736965120

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August 21, 2017, 07:04:05 AM
 #12

You said your'e a poker player then i think you really have good analytical skills. Experienced traders here are always predicting the currency on when it will increase. That's how trading works its like your also playing. Maybe you can try playing gambling poker sites that use bitcoins. But if your'e going to focus on trading then just monitor the charts and start thinking strategically.
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August 21, 2017, 07:08:57 AM
 #13

What works for one trader, would not necessarily work for another trader. Yes, you can develope an edge in trading. It will come from consta trading, paying attention, accepting losses and learning from your mistakes. Over time you will figure something out.
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August 21, 2017, 09:21:00 AM
 #14

You've listed some decent points, but personally I think it's heavily depends on what kind of trading you're planning on doing, shortterm(daytrading) vs long term trading(hodling). Personally I think the points you stated(a,b,c) are more towards longterm trading. When doing short term trading, I think it depends alot on hype/publicity/shills of a certain cryptocurrency. Let's use NEO(NEO) and Bitquence(BQX) as an example. They've been kinda steady on a low price in the past, but then alot of people on Facebook groups and on Reddit started shilling on these coins weeks to months ago, guess what happened? They skyrocketed, since everyone got too excited with the prices and started buying. This is also a perfect example of FOMO or "fear of missing out".
That’s a good point and one I wanted to incorporate in OP but left out to keep it simple.
Initially I set out to just buy and hold BTC and ETH (+1 year unless they come crashing down) but digging deeper into the crypto space I am now curious about trading in any time frame (I have the time).
What are the rules of thumb in terms of time intervals when people talk about short/long-term trading?
Nice examples. I looked up NEO and looking at the graph from the launch of the coin, the sudden increase is even clearer.
How do you handle a scenario like that? Say you notice a coin getting a lot of hype months after going steady and prices increase slightly – do you buy in even if you don’t believe in long term prospects but just to ride the ‘pump’ and sell before the 'dump'?
On FOMO: When/how do you decide that you are late for the party?

There are no like "standard" time intervals when talking about short term and long term trading. Personally I think short term is like at the 1-4day mark, whereas beyond that, you can probably call long term or semi-long term depending on how long it is. Whereas buys and sells that happen in the same day are called "daytrades" or "day trading".

Honestly, personally I always go with my "gut feeling". If I see that it has risen up a bit but not too much and at the same time that certain coin is still getting so much hype, I'll most likely cash in a bit. And yes. Even if I don't believe in the coin, even though I think a certain coin is so stupid, I still cash in a bit and sell immediately at a certain point just to get a bit of profit.

The thing is, you don't. That's one of the beauties and dangers of crypto trading, is that it's almost impossible to know what the highest price can be, so it's also almost impossible to know if you're late or not. Sometimes I still go in even if I feel I'm quite late, but I only rack in a very small amount. Just for the shits and giggles. Again, go with your gut-feeling.

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August 21, 2017, 10:19:28 AM
 #15

"... i'd get in now before it gets overtaken by high frequency algo trading.

Is it a commonly accepted viewpoint that this is happening? Thinking about it I'm actually surprised the bots haven't already taken over. The only reason bots aren't a bigger problem in poker is because they are relatively easily detected and gets banned. Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think any exchanges have banned nor have any interest in banning bots. The right algorithms can certainly beat most games with 4+ players at the table and I'd say they are further from perfect information in poker vs trading - do you agree?

..as far as book recommendations, i can only offer "Bollinger on Bollinger Bands."

this gives a good taste of what i mean by classical charting techniques though:
https://twitter.com/bbands/status/888432347736965120

Thanks a bunch. Read through the article on now working my way through the book.

Also thanks to the rest of the comments. Is there a way to thank/like comments btw?
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August 21, 2017, 12:16:13 PM
 #16

OP, if you are a math person who has the propensity to take risks then trading would be for you. I have read that a gambling background would be a good fit in trading, which is also another form of taking calculated risks.


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August 22, 2017, 03:32:43 AM
 #17

"... i'd get in now before it gets overtaken by high frequency algo trading.

Is it a commonly accepted viewpoint that this is happening? Thinking about it I'm actually surprised the bots haven't already taken over. The only reason bots aren't a bigger problem in poker is because they are relatively easily detected and gets banned. Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think any exchanges have banned nor have any interest in banning bots. The right algorithms can certainly beat most games with 4+ players at the table and I'd say they are further from perfect information in poker vs trading - do you agree?

in trading, i'm more worried about co-located high frequency trading, not simple algorithms. in other words, bots that have far superior time lag considerations and can front-run regular traders (and the bots they run) on virtually all trades made on the exchange. the exchanges are crawling with bots today, but they are still very much beatable.

i suspect that ledgerX and future bitcoin etfs will be much harder to beat for intraday traders. so, like stock trading and forex today, we'll just have to zoom out and trade the longer time frames (4-hour to 1-week, rather than 5-min to 1-hour, for instance)...

..as far as book recommendations, i can only offer "Bollinger on Bollinger Bands."

this gives a good taste of what i mean by classical charting techniques though:
https://twitter.com/bbands/status/888432347736965120

Thanks a bunch. Read through the article on now working my way through the book.

Also thanks to the rest of the comments. Is there a way to thank/like comments btw?

nope. we're just an old school forum here. welcome, by the way. Smiley

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August 22, 2017, 05:29:13 AM
 #18

Hey bro, welcome to the forum! By the way, I am not an expert when it comes to crypto trading. I've been with this trading for only a month or so. But based on what I've read here and researched, yes you or we can dominate crypto trading, especially in your case, you said you're a poker player and you know how to read opponent's move. I think you can apply it on the market, plus make some reading, research I think you can do it very well. Goodluck to you and enjoy to this forum Smiley
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August 22, 2017, 08:46:42 PM
 #19

Hey bro, welcome to the forum! By the way, I am not an expert when it comes to crypto trading. I've been with this trading for only a month or so. But based on what I've read here and researched, yes you or we can dominate crypto trading, especially in your case, you said you're a poker player and you know how to read opponent's move. I think you can apply it on the market, plus make some reading, research I think you can do it very well. Goodluck to you and enjoy to this forum Smiley
That great if you were a professional poker! Like it is said you better know the opponent and what behavior he will be showing in next move. Just implement this to cryptocurrency and just watch out the charts daily you will be having edge on other new traders in bitcoins. Deep analysis of price charts and strategically implementation, you will be having more fruits.

 
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September 11, 2017, 12:26:02 PM
 #20

Hi all,

I'm new to the crypto space. I played professional poker for the past many years and thinking about trying out trading cryptos. However, I am skeptical from a game theoretic point of view as to whether I can gain an edge.

In poker part of your edge comes from knowing who your opponents are. With that information you can select your opposition to a certain degree, thereby increasing your edge. In the world of trading this is not really possible. I guess maybe some exchanges will have softer competition than others but you don't know exactly who you're trading with (amateurs or pros).

From what I understand the main skills needed is to predict trends and understand the potential of the new technologies popping up. On a micro-level that would translate to:
a) Being first at receiving market news and understanding how they will affect certain coins and the market as a whole.
b) Understanding market dynamics including being able to use a variety of charts to identify possible patterns.
c) Have a technical understanding of the technologies behind the different coins and thereby being able to estimate their potential.

1) Am I missing some?
2) How would you weigh these skill sets?
3) Is it possible to gain an edge without much technical knowledge?

4) Someone told me around 1 in 10 traders are able to beat the market. Not sure where he has the number from though or if was on the stock or crypto market. Has anyone heard a similar or different number?

Lastly if anyone can link to previous best threads on:
- Best books for learning trading.
- Trading strategies in general

Sorry if this post comes off messy. I still have a bunch of questions but I'm gonna cut it short here and save the rest for a different post.

Trading is one of the hardest and toughest forms of investment, though some school of thought take it to be one of
the best ways to make cash out of your investment, I do not see it that way, I believe that the market favors those
who are disciplined traders.

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