World War III and BTC

[btc237ftw]

There are rumors of war everywhere as you guys know...

I can write a whole book showing evidence for WWIII coming really soon... and my question for you is.. What kind of influence do you think such a war would have on Bitcoin?

P.S
I started a very nice discussion on this subject on another section of the forum, and I thought we should continue it where the main guys are hanging, I.E here...
Here's a link to the original post:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=208229.msg2191792#msg2191792

[solex]

I think you will find that wars have been raging somewhere in the world, continuously, since Julius Caesar sat in the Roman Senate.

Edit: remembered seeing this:
http://kottke.org/12/09/1000-years-of-war-in-5-minutes

[FlappySocks]

Christian propaganda by the sounds of it.  Book of Revelation.

Wars will always happen.  There is no Utopia.

[Hawker]

There is no reason to think World War 3 is more likely now that it was in the 1960s or any time since.

The interesting question is why you would want to believe in it.  Does the feeling that the good life can't last fulfil some kind of psychic need in you?

[wumpus]

I can write a whole book showing evidence for WWIII coming really soon... and my question for you is.. What kind of influence do you think such a war would have on Bitcoin?

We'll all die and all of this, and anything else that humanity ever did will cease to matter.

[keelba]

Is this a debate about whether WWIII is imminent or not, or is this more of a thought experiment about how Bitcoin affects or would be affected during a world-wide conflict? I think the latter is far more interesting.

[btc237ftw]

Is this a debate about whether WWIII is imminent or not, or is this more of a thought experiment about how Bitcoin affects or would be affected during a world-wide conflict? I think the latter is far more interesting.

About the latter

[Ekaros]

Bad. If internet is cut-out and re-routing is stopped there might be drastic effects on network.

So WW3 might be really bad for network and lead to multiple forks, which might be an issue or not...

[alkuluku]

Bad. If internet is cut-out and re-routing is stopped there might be drastic effects on network.

So WW3 might be really bad for network and lead to multiple forks, which might be an issue or not...

If nukes are used (and I assume they are in a worldwide conflict) we'll lose a bit more than the internet.

[Ekaros]

Bad. If internet is cut-out and re-routing is stopped there might be drastic effects on network.

So WW3 might be really bad for network and lead to multiple forks, which might be an issue or not...

If nukes are used (and I assume they are in a worldwide conflict) we'll lose a bit more than the internet.

A few nations have already blocked Internet at time of crisis. If other nation did this too, this time western ones. Or mandated only government traffic were to be allowed would be bad. Internet is rather fragile thing in some parts. I'm not sure if it would survive in good condition if the cyber wars were really to start...

[doom309]

if, for instance, global conflict got underway, and the internet remained relatively unaffected, or people found ways to get it up and running or splintered off from the govt controlled web, and keep it going, then bitcoin could be really interesting, for instance it could be possible to continue to do business with "the enemy" when cash or fiat bank accounts would be otherwise frozen to this activty

[Elwar]

I can see Bitcoin being used for small bands of operatives coordinating anonymously online via encrypted messages, paying for military grade weapons via the anonymous Tor gun site and the group being able to amass an army better equipped than some small nations.

So essentially, a small group of people could use Bitcoin to take over a nation.

As far as its effects on a world war. Think the French resistance but being funded completely with Bitcoin.

[Skrapps]

If such an event occurred anytime soon or the near future (highly unlikely IMO), I can only see Bitcoin crash and/or stall in development.

This is assuming that Bitcoin's umbilical cord is to the US dollar (and I think it a fair assumption, no?). As a nation, Bitcoin would only harm US interest in wartime, and drastic measures to severe Bitcoin and communication networks with enemy nations would be supported. Would it be effective? At least somewhat, possibly greatly effective.

In other words, it would be very suspicious and difficult for private citizens to argue their freedom for pursuing, maintaining and developing BTC during wartime - for any nation. Internet & BTC = Global Interest (as a whole). World War = Nation Interest (specific/particular).

I can see Bitcoin being used for small bands of operatives coordinating anonymously online via encrypted messages, paying for military grade weapons via the anonymous Tor gun site and the group being able to amass an army better equipped than some small nations.

So essentially, a small group of people could use Bitcoin to take over a nation.

As far as its effects on a world war. Think the French resistance but being funded completely with Bitcoin.

Yes, but only if Bitcoin's value were stable and applicable across many currencies and cultures. As of now, only private BTC wealthy interests could supply smaller armies with guns, food, and supplies; but it would be those small armies that would have trouble getting guns, food and supplies with Bitcoin, or the private interest would need to deal only with other believers in BTC who could supply. Bitcoin doesn't have any real power right now - regardless how you define 'power' - only potential.


Far future, and if BTC is established, global and independent? Then yes, very effective for funding resistance. And it could transcend any nation's fiat if the internet and personal electronics are seen just as strong and independent.

[Elwar]

Yes, but only if Bitcoin's value were stable and applicable across many currencies and cultures. As of now, only private BTC wealthy interests could supply smaller armies with guns, food, and supplies; but it would be those small armies that would have trouble getting guns, food and supplies with Bitcoin, or the private interest would need to deal only with other believers in BTC who could supply. Bitcoin doesn't have any real power right now - regardless how you define 'power' - only potential.

Far future, and if BTC is established, global and independent? Then yes, very effective for funding resistance. And it could transcend any nation's fiat if the internet and personal electronics are seen just as strong and independent.

It was already shown that someone could put together a small 20 person coup to overthrow a government via Bitcoin.

Reporter at Gizmodo went through the simulated steps of trying to put together such an operation with much success:
http://gizmodo.com/5927379/the-secret-online-weapons-store-thatll-sell-anyone-anything

Absolutely, we can accommodate your request, but we need more parameters such as your exact arms needs and destination country. We only deal with small arms and equipment, but if you need artillery, MANPADS [Man-portable air-defense systems], ordinance, APCs, Helos we do have resources and can make certain introductions for a fee.

[Skrapps]

It was already shown that someone could put together a small 20 person coup to overthrow a government via Bitcoin.

Reporter at Gizmodo went through the simulated steps of trying to put together such an operation with much success:
http://gizmodo.com/5927379/the-secret-online-weapons-store-thatll-sell-anyone-anything

True, but this is an isolated, plan coup and very short term. Its one shot, hit or miss; success rate varies wildly and average is a coin flip: http://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf

In Bitcoin's (and internet's) current state, I can't see it being a real factor in a lengthy World War. Perhaps if a nation conquered the US, then any US Resistance Fighters could use BTC to fund themselves. Though supporters of BTC and the resistance would still be few and far between, and at the current size it would be pretty easy to trace involved parties methinks.

Off note: Isn't the Armory closed down?

[countryfree]

Bitcoin requires electricity and an Internet connection, and it's difficult to imagine they would remain constant and unaffected in case of a global conflict. Then, from what I've seen, even with my very limited experience of war, war is about survival, meaning that only physical goods remain valuable. When there's only one bread left in a shop, the shop owner will only sell it to the guy paying with hard currency.

[BTC Books]

Bitcoin IS WWIII.

[Elwar]

It would be easier to get out of your war torn country and make it to a neutral country with bitcoins than it would take to get out with gold or money.

And it would be easier for family to send money to their family members under attack.

Imagine the jews in WWII having access to Bitcoin to bribe their way out or be able to pay for things while on the run.

[BitcoinAshley]

In Bitcoin's (and internet's) current state, I can't see it being a real factor in a lengthy World War. Perhaps if a nation conquered the US, then any US Resistance Fighters could use BTC to fund themselves. Though supporters of BTC and the resistance would still be few and far between, and at the current size it would be pretty easy to trace involved parties methinks.

Off note: Isn't the Armory closed down?

The Armory is closed but there are other websites still open that sell the same stuff.

Ok, so the U.S. routinely sends money to whichever government or rebel group it happens to agree with. Say, hypothetically, a group of U.S. citizens wanted to support a different rebel group since they disagreed with U.S. foreign policy. Say a Women's Church Quilting Group decided to do this because the particular rebel group the U.S. Gov't was using their tax dollars to support, was engaging in mass rape of "suspected government agents" (teenage girls taking photos of protests on their iPhones, true story, guess where) as an insurgency tactic.
Their bank isn't going to let them wire money to a "terrorist group" in Oilistan. Where does bitcoin come in? Well, the group they are trying to support decides to accept bitcoin. Voila! Not only can money be instantly transferred from across the world, but it can then be used on Tor websites to order weapons, and it could be sold OTC to buy other things like food/medical supplies/etc. Another consideration is that now this "rebel group" or government can secretly contact other governments who may support them vocally but be afraid to actually wire them money for fear of repercussion from Western powers. So these countries' intelligence services can use bitcoin transfers to keep it anonymous.

All of this stuff is highly illegal so of course I don't do any of it myself nor do I condone behaviour that might be considered treasonous. But this is how Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies could play a role in a world war or, in fact, any war.

[bennett616]

I fear that with WW3 comes a loss of internet/network........

Andy B