Junk Picks: NFL|NCAAF|Rugby (+/- Total Bet Units in 1st Post)

[Junko]

Bet Units Won/Lost Total: -3.148 bet units

1 bet unit = 0.01 btc

Updated 22 January 2018

________________________________


Hello friends and fellow degens,

Making this thread to log my picks and success or failure. As the title of this thread suggests, I will be focusing on mainly the NFL and NCAAF. Rugby picks will be more casual and may be sprinkled in here and there, but it will mostly be for when NFL and NCAAF is in offseason.

This will be an ongoing thread so I don't have to start a new one every season (hence the reason I added rugby, so as to bridge the gap between NFL/NCAAF seasons). While it is a log of my picks, anyone is free to post and discuss anything football - American football, obv. - teams, players, news, rankings, match-ups, injuries, etc. Also, feel free to critique my picks. Agree? Disagree? Want to trash/mock my picks? No, problem. It's all good.  

All my picks that I post in this thread will be "Provably Fair" meaning that I will post either images and/or links to my bestlips for every pick/bet I make before the start of the match(s) for all to see.


Follow or fade my picks at your own peril.  


First pick(s) coming shortly...

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[Junko]

First pick ready.

Saturday 2 Sept. NitrogenSports NCAAF, 1% bet, pick in bold:

Florida State vs. Alabama -7 (1.865)

Betslip

Even though they lost the Championship, Alabama was very good to me last season as far as my picks. So I'm going to go ahead and reboard the Bama Train early. They lost a lot of last year's starting players to the NFL draft, but Alabama has always been able to put together one of the best teams despite however many starters leave and those they retain.

[Junko]

Saturday Results:

Florida State vs. Alabama -7 (1.865) : WIN +0.865 bet units

Betslip

Was a close game early until near the end of the first half. Then disaster struck for Florida State and the wheels came off. The nightmare continued for the Seminoles into the second half which was bad for them, but good for me as Bama was able to easily cover. It wasn't the prettiest of games, but I'll happily take it for the first win to start off this log.


Saturday Total: +0.865 bet units
Cumulative Total: +0.865 bet units

[Junko]

Pick for tonight.


Thursday 7 Sept. NitrogenSports NFL, 1% bet, pick in bold

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots -8 (1.976)

My Wager: Betslip


Thursday Night Football Chiefs @ Patriots

Alright, it's the first game of the NFL regular season. This looks to be a great game to watch, but my instincts are telling me to stay away from betting this game. However, it's been a long off season and I'm feeling the need to put action in already. So screw my instincts tonight.  

The Chiefs do have talent on their team, but I don't think it will be enough against the Pats. The Chiefs lost their starting RB to injury in the preseason and the Pats lost Edelman for the season. No matter, New England is stacked with talent and looking just as dangerous as ever if not more so. New England has too many weapons, they are playing at home on Thursday Night Football to open the season. They will be extra geeked as they will also be hoisting their Championship banner from last year (which will be extra motivation to do well - they wouldn't want to spoil the championship celebration by losing tonight's game). Both teams have had extra time to prepare for each other with this being the first game of the season, but in this department, the edge goes to New England's coach Bill Belicheck.

I would have preferred to have gotten this game with New England -7, but I think -8 will still be doable.

[Junko]

Thursday result (pick in bold):

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots -8 (1.976) Loss -1.00 bet units

My Wager: Betslip


I was right that this was going to be a good game to watch. My instincts told me not to bet this game, but I did anyway. Lesson: I should stick with my instincts and go with my intuition. I usually am more shrewd with which games I bet on, but meh, first game of the season hype.

My analysis of the game was off anyway. KC came to play and Akili Smith really balled out, along with the rookie RB. Despite giving up points early, the Chiefs defense put the kibosh on the Pats offense for the most part. Brady not yet looking in his usual championship form.


Thursday Total: -1.00 bet units
Cumulative Total: -0.135 bet units

[Junko]

Pick for Sunday, early game.


Sunday 10 Sept. NitrogenSports NFL, 1% bet, pick in bold

Pittsburgh Steelers -8 (1.913) @ Cleveland Browns

My Wager: Betslip

Pittsburgh is loaded with talent and looking to make a Super Bowl run. Cleveland is starting a rookie QB and will be without Myles Garrett due to injury. Steelers should manhandle the Browns as they usually do.

[Junko]

Another Sunday, early game pick.


Sunday 10 Sept. NitrogenSports NFL, 1% bet, pick in bold

Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (1.948)

My Wager: Betslip

The Colts will be without QB Andrew Luck to start the season.

[Junko]

One more afternoon Sunday pick.


Sunday 10 Sept. NitrogenSports NFL, 1% bet, pick in bold

Carolina Panthers -5.5 (1.996) @ San Francisco 49ers

My Wager: Betslip

Cam Newton appears healthy and the Panthers are looking to bounce back after last year's disappointing season.

[Canconf]

Hi I am interested in betting NCAAF and NFL but I don't use the same odds system.
please can you add also european format 1.xx etc? thank you Cancof

[Junko]

Hi I am interested in betting NCAAF and NFL but I don't use the same odds system.
please can you add also european format 1.xx etc? thank you Cancof

Hey, mate. The European odds are in parentheses.

Example:

Carolina Panthers -5.5 (1.996) @ San Francisco 49ers

This is an Against The Spread (ATS) pick/bet. My pick is in bold: Carolina Panthers to win by 5.5 points (the .5 means they actually have to win by 6 points in order for me to win the bet). The European odds are 1.996. Also, San Francisco 49ers are the home team, hence the "@" symbol. If you or anyone else have any other questions or need explanations regarding betting American football, I would be more than happy to try and answer/explain things as best I can.


Sunday results (picks in bold):

Pittsburgh Steelers -8 (1.913) @ Cleveland Browns - Loss -1.00 bet units. Betslip

Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (1.948) - Win +0.948 bet units. Betslip

Carolina Panthers -5.5 (1.996) @ San Francisco 49ers - Win +0.996 bet units. Betslip

Now that teams will have played actual real games that count this first week of the new season, I'll have more info to work with in order to get a better picture and idea for how teams will be going forward.


Sunday Total: +0.944 bet units
Cumulative Total: +0.809 bet units

[Junko]

No NCAAF games catch my fancy this week. Maybe something will strike me closer to the weekend. I do have a pick for this weekend's NFL. More to follow, just need to check on some things first.


Sunday 17 Sept. NitrogenSports NFL, 1% bet, pick in bold

Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 (1.948).

My Wager: Betslip

Despite losing their star safety, Eric Berry, due to a ruptured Achilles tendon, the Chiefs looked impressive in their win against the Patriots. Having played the Thursday game, they will have had more time to rest and prepare for the Eagles. Plus, they are at home. Philadelphia looked meh in their season opener against the Redskins. Philly's defense is certainly stout, but KC has some dynamic weapons on their offense and their defense pretty much shut down Brady and company in the second half of their victory over the defending champions last week.

[Junko]

Couple more picks for Sunday's early games.


Sunday 17 Sept. NitrogenSports NFL, 1% bet, picks in bold


Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (1.996).

My Wager: Betslip

Pittsburgh should be geared up for this game after their less than impressive win over the lowly Browns last week.


Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens -7.5 (1.921).

My Wager: Betslip

Cleveland showed some heart in their close loss to the Steelers last week. Baltimore's defense, however, looks in prime form having shut out the Bengals last week in Cincinnati.

[Junko]

A Sunday afternoon game pick.


Sunday 17 Sept. NitrogenSports NFL, 1% bet, picks in bold


Washington Redskins @ Los Angeles Rams -2.5 (1.880).

My Wager: Betslip

Washington didn't look very good last week and they will be travelling across the country to play the Rams, who looked reasonably capable in their season opener even if it was against the Colts who were without Andrew Luck.

[Junko]

Sunday results (picks in bold):


Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 (1.948) - Win +0.948 bet units. Betslip

Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (1.996) - Win +0.996 bet units. Betslip

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens -7.5 (1.921) - Win +0.921 bet units. Betslip

Washington Redskins @ Los Angeles Rams -2.5 (1.880) - Loss -1.00 bet units. Betslip

Rams D got gashed for over 200 yards rushing. Not going to win many games that way.


Sunday Total: +1.865 bet units
Cumulative Total: +2.674 bet units

[Junko]

Monday Night Football.


Monday 18 Sept. NitrogenSports NFL, 1% bet, pick in bold


Detroit Lions +3.5 (1.948) @ New York Giants

My Wager: Betslip

New York has a great defense and if they win tonight, it will likely be because of their D. Their offense, on the other hand is very suspect, mostly due to their offensive line which looked really shaky in both the running and passing game last week against the Cowboys. Even if Odell Beckham Jr (questionable, ankle) plays tonight, it won't matter because if Eli Manning is running around for his life, he won't be able to get the ball to OBJ, much like he wasn't able to get it to Brandon Marshal last week. If the Lions can get pressure on Eli, I think the game will be close and I will go with Detroit plus the points.

[Junko]

Monday result (pick in bold):


Detroit Lions +3.5 (1.948) @ New York Giants - Win +0.948 bet units. Betslip

As predicted, Giants defense played well, but as also predicted, their offense - even with OBJ - was inept for most of the night. The Giants offensive line is atrocious. Not to mention, very poor playcalling by New York coach Ben McAdoo. Another ugly loss for the Giants, another tasty win for me.  


Monday Total: +0.948 bet units
Cumulative Total: +3.626 bet units

[Junko]

So looking over the NCAAF schedule this week, there are some very good and interesting games and match ups. However, just like last week, nothing really jumps out at me as far as betting. I'll take a closer look later in the week if I feel like I don't have that much action on the NFL games. There look to be some juicy match ups in the NFL. Though it's almost as if Vegas is trying to trap with some of the lines. We'll see... Right now a pick for Thursday Night NFL.


Thursday 21 Sept. NitrogenSports NFL, 1% bet, pick in bold


Los Angeles Rams -2 (1.948) @ San Francisco 49ers

My Wager: Betslip

I don't agree with the line of Rams -2. I think the Rams should be favored by a little bit more, like -4.5/-5.5 or even -6. Even though the Rams are the visiting team, they don't have very far to travel to San Francisco in the same state/time zone. I think the 49ers are getting too much credit for their close, low scoring loss last week against the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle's poor showing was more due to the rainy weather game conditions, Russell Wilson's inability to connect with his receivers for most of the game along with their poor offensive line play, than the 49ers being any good or even decent. The 49ers are just plain garbage. They have a brand new offensive coordinator and they are ranked dead last in the league in Total Offense after two games.

The Rams on the other hand, even though they aren't among the best teams in the league, they can at least score points - albeit against bad teams, but the Niners are a bad team. The Rams have a defense which boasts the best player in the league, Aaron Donald, as ranked/graded by PFF (Pro Football Focus). That's best player in the league, not just best defensive player. He has had a slow start to the season because he held out of training camp for a new contract, but I look for him to get into his dominating form against the 49ers.

[Junko]

First Parlay of the season:


NitrogenSports NFL, 1% bet, 4-Leg Parlay (13.466), picks in bold:

      1. Los Angeles Rams -2 (1.948) @ San Francisco 49ers
      2. Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (1.948) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (neutral site)
      3. New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles -6 (1.957)
      4. Cincinnati Bengals @ Green Bay Packers -8.5 (1.948)

My Wager: Betslip

1. See previous post above for my thoughts on Rams -2 @ 49ers.
2. Game to be played in London, England. Baltimore is the far better team of the two and have outscored their first two oppnents by a combined score of 44-10.
3. The Giants and Eagles both have good defenses. The Giants offense is terrible, while the Eagles offense is fairly capable of scoring when it isn't making mistakes.
4. The Bengals have big problems scoring on offense. QB Andy Dalton has thrown 0 TDs and four INTs. They also just sacked their offensive coordinator. The Packers at home should win by double digits.

[Junko]

Thursday result (pick in bold):


Los Angeles Rams -2 (1.948) @ San Francisco 49er - <Push> +0.00 bet units. Betslip

Crazy, high scoring game. Lots of big plays from both teams. The 49ers offense decided to wake up and made a comeback rally, but the Rams held them off. LA could have kicked a field goal at the end of the game, but elected to be safe and just take a knee and the win. The result, Rams win by just 2 points, meaning we get a push. Like I always say, a push is better than a shove. Also, my parlay wager is still alive.


Thursday Total: +0.000 bet units
Cumulative Total: +3.626 bet units

[Junko]

A quick pick for Sunday with more to follow.


Sunday 24 Sept. NitrogenSports NFL, 1% bet, pick in bold


Atlanta Falcons @ Detroit Lions : Over 48.5 (1.948)

My Wager: Betslip

Taking the over in this match. Both teams have potent, high powered offenses and the game will be played in the comfortable confines of a dome stadium. So I expect well over 50 points being scored.