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Author Topic: Who wants to share some bear?  (Read 3916 times)
fitty
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May 24, 2013, 06:06:47 PM
 #21

Yes, a bear thread with people who think it will go to $30-$50!

Yeah, we're totally gonna see $30 this summer

 Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

I'm soooo bearish. "Long, slow, slide, guys."

Am I doinitrite?

 Grin

Not bad. You need a few more buzzwords.

"Pretty obvious it's a dead cat bounce"

"Inverse reverse rainbow candles, clearly a downtrend"

"I had a neckbeard in 2011 and I started regrowing it a few months ago. Same neckbeard, same long slow slide"

"MtGox will end up Goxing us" (okay can't argue that one)

"I see 3 triangles, two Bull Pennants and my mom's ivory broach, we're headed down!"

"BubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleB ubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubble"

That about covers it.  Grin


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May 24, 2013, 06:07:53 PM
 #22

it will trend at best sideways for half a year. Likely it will hit 30/50 in that time. Summer is going to be dull.

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May 24, 2013, 06:17:50 PM
 #23

it will trend at best sideways for half a year. Likely it will hit 30/50 in that time. Summer is going to be dull.


lol Smiley Gotja

She looks beautiful Smiley
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May 24, 2013, 06:26:46 PM
 #24

It's just pathetic how the bulls are getting an erection already on this weak upwards move today from $120 to $130. Times have changed.
There's something pretty interesting about this statement.

I mean, yes. Compared to much of Bitcoin's history, and especially compared to 2013, a move from $120 to $130 is fairly small.

But if you saw that kind of change in, say, forex, the expectation is completely different. That's almost 10%! That's a big move!

There's just no action and I'm checking prices less and less. I think it will trend at best sideways for half a year.
I think I'd take "trend[ing] sideways for half a year" over a lot of the alternatives. Value-confidence is good for Bitcoin, and attracts the right sort of new blood.

Try again, somewhere deep inside of you there must be a bear. Try to connect. Smiley
Hmm. If you want to hear what makes me feel bearish, it's this: there was a bubble, and the bubble has popped, but we haven't visited proper despair yet. The worst it's gotten so far has been the immediate post-pop selloff. Looking at exponential graphs, and trying to chart things according to 2011's lessons, we should be heading all the way down to the historical zone-of-confidence at $10-13.

Now, the math could be wrong. Past performance never guarantees future results. No, the real bearish indicator is that I have this math and my gut is totally ignoring it. My gut looks at the $50, and instead of thinking "bull trap" it thinks "that's the floor". My gut looks at the current market and thinks not "when will the other shoe drop so that we can leave the bubble behind" but "we've already left the bubble behind".

The fact that this is my gut reaction fits too well with the classic "return to normal" bubble phase for my intellectual side to dismiss it.

Based on that interpretation, the current bullish movement can continue only to about ~$175-80 before faltering again, and creating bearish movement to below the $50 lows of the pop (targeting either $30 or $10-13 as the nadir).

TL;DR: My own bullish sentiment is the best bearish indicator I have, and looking closely at it makes it seem like an uncomfortably credible one.

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the prevalence of users convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and of the con-artists who have followed them here to devour them.
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May 24, 2013, 06:43:59 PM
 #25

If I look at the 6 month chart I don't really see a bubble that has popped but a rather large correction that took place. The whole bubble theory and terminology like 'despair' and 'return to normal' do not apply in case of a correction. The higher lows and higher highs we're seeing point more to a correction than a bubble deflating in my view. Just my opinion ofcourse, the future will tell us what it will be. Smiley

Bitcoin = Gold on steroids
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May 24, 2013, 06:52:46 PM
 #26

If I look at the 6 month chart I don't really see a bubble that has popped but a rather large correction that took place. The whole bubble theory and terminology like 'despair' and 'return to normal' do not apply in case of a correction. The higher lows and higher highs we're seeing point more to a correction than a bubble deflating in my view. Just my opinion ofcourse, the future will tell us what it will be. Smiley
We had growth that looked exponential on an exponential chart, with media attention and uninformed investors showing up in the last part of that growth.

That's why I feel it's worthwhile to take the bubble interpretation seriously. Obviously, it's also possible that it was never a bubble pattern per se, which is the contention that my gut is making. But I don't trust my gut.

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the prevalence of users convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and of the con-artists who have followed them here to devour them.
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May 24, 2013, 06:58:26 PM
 #27

Hmm. If you want to hear what makes me feel bearish, it's this: there was a bubble, and the bubble has popped, but we haven't visited proper despair yet. The worst it's gotten so far has been the immediate post-pop selloff. Looking at exponential graphs, and trying to chart things according to 2011's lessons, we should be heading all the way down to the historical zone-of-confidence at $10-13.

This!

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May 24, 2013, 08:43:23 PM
 #28

Hmm. Seems like we just saw an attempt to break away upwards from the trend, but that it failed.

I am not too good at that technical analysis, but I figure this might mean that there is to be a real breakout, it has to be downwards.

On the other hand, there have been bought a lot of coins lately for transfer to other sites after the Dwolla incident(keeping the prices artificially bloated?).
Since it's a bit hard to get dollars out of MtGox, this might mean that those dollars might be burning in their respective pockets.

BitCoin is NOT a pyramid - it's a pagoda.
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May 24, 2013, 08:51:32 PM
 #29

it will trend at best sideways for half a year. Likely it will hit 30/50 in that time. Summer is going to be dull.


lol Smiley Gotja

She looks beautiful Smiley

Here are some more pictures of her if you want. You can thank me later.

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May 25, 2013, 03:44:15 AM
 #30



 Grin thanks! She's a tiger! :-)

In contrast to that bull you guys showed! Wink

The beast went to sleep already!


Goddamn that lady is a kickboxer!   Huh
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONhGfJS7LmI
 
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May 25, 2013, 04:16:02 AM
 #31

Hmm. If you want to hear what makes me feel bearish, it's this: there was a bubble, and the bubble has popped, but we haven't visited proper despair yet. The worst it's gotten so far has been the immediate post-pop selloff. Looking at exponential graphs, and trying to chart things according to 2011's lessons, we should be heading all the way down to the historical zone-of-confidence at $10-13.

Now, the math could be wrong. Past performance never guarantees future results. No, the real bearish indicator is that I have this math and my gut is totally ignoring it. My gut looks at the $50, and instead of thinking "bull trap" it thinks "that's the floor". My gut looks at the current market and thinks not "when will the other shoe drop so that we can leave the bubble behind" but "we've already left the bubble behind".

The fact that this is my gut reaction fits too well with the classic "return to normal" bubble phase for my intellectual side to dismiss it.

Based on that interpretation, the current bullish movement can continue only to about ~$175-80 before faltering again, and creating bearish movement to below the $50 lows of the pop (targeting either $30 or $10-13 as the nadir).

TL;DR: My own bullish sentiment is the best bearish indicator I have, and looking closely at it makes it seem like an uncomfortably credible one.

Thanks for sharing Smiley Very interesting to hear how you also look at your different parts. Has your gut been mostly right or wrong in the past? What about your intellectual side?

Yes, I think many expect a 2011 repeat, and in that case indeed it will go down, but since so many expect it, it might not happen. Which would mean trending sideways. A relaunch is possible, and part of me is afraid of that, but thinking as rational as possible I agree with you. It had all the indicators of a bubble, and it just does not happen that a bubble crashes so hard, only to relaunch soon after.

The actual usage of the currency, the hashrate, the amount of services lags now way behind the valuation of the currency. It will take a year to catch up.

From a risk/reward perspective, as well as from a valuation perspective, as well as from a technical perspective, this looks bad.

That does not mean it cannot happen, rationally one must admit that it only takes one dedicated billionaire to relaunch this bubble. It's just that I estimate the chances low so it's a bad bet to take.  
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May 25, 2013, 04:27:54 AM
 #32

If I look at the 6 month chart I don't really see a bubble that has popped but a rather large correction that took place. The whole bubble theory and terminology like 'despair' and 'return to normal' do not apply in case of a correction. The higher lows and higher highs we're seeing point more to a correction than a bubble deflating in my view. Just my opinion ofcourse, the future will tell us what it will be. Smiley

I must admit that it could just have been a correction. A serious bear market like 2011 only happened once. All the other parabolic rises were followed by a correction and shortly thereafter continued their rise.

However, the rise of 2011 was the strongest, and the rise of 2013 the second strongest. The higher you go, the higher the chance of falling long. So this 2013 rise is certainly a very good candidate for another long bear market.

I feel resistance when people claim this is just a correction because the crash from 266 to 50 over 2 days, cannot be called a correction. Such price move is called a crash. And since then it's been lower high's, which also corresponds with a crash.  (where do you get the higher highs from? 266/160/150/...)

This is very difficult I find.
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May 25, 2013, 04:39:43 AM
 #33

The actual usage of the currency, the hashrate, the amount of services lags now way behind the valuation of the currency. It will take a year to catch up.
I think Latin America, China and Russia are going to surprise you this year.
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May 25, 2013, 04:43:34 AM
 #34

Translation of OP:

"Dear Bitcoin Bear God,

Please grant me 1 wish. I sold all my coins at sub $120 and I want to buy them back cheaper than I sold them. So please let me sound like I am just making a joke here about being a bear when in fact I am subliminally trying to garner more bears to bring the price down for my personal and selfish reasons.

Please bring the price down to ~$90.

Thank you oh great bear god of Bitcoin

RationalSpeculator"


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

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May 25, 2013, 05:09:22 AM
 #35

Translation of OP:

"Dear Bitcoin Bear God,

Please grant me 1 wish. I sold all my coins at sub $120 and I want to buy them back cheaper than I sold them. So please let me sound like I am just making a joke here about being a bear when in fact I am subliminally trying to garner more bears to bring the price down for my personal and selfish reasons.

Please bring the price down to ~$90.

Thank you oh great bear god of Bitcoin

RationalSpeculator"


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

That would be your interpretation as well as suspicions.

It contains factual errors that you would have known if you read my posts.

My sale price was not below current price. I made the same amount of money as a buy and hold, but if it crashes I won't lose as much.
 
I always hold onto enough bitcoins to not feel bad if I am wrong. This means if price goes up I make money, if price goes down I lose money.  

I don't think you are funny, I find your post quite irritating actually. Keep the bolds down please. No reason to scream.
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May 25, 2013, 05:09:47 AM
 #36

I'll start poking a little Wink

It's just pathetic how the bulls are getting an erection already on this weak upwards move today from $120 to $130. Times have changed.

There's just no action and I'm checking prices less and less. I think it will trend at best sideways for half a year. Likely it will hit 30/50 in that time. Summer is going to be dull.

With over 1500 billionaires in the world there is a chance that it relaunches again to new highs never to come back but I estimate chances low.

Any bears around who feel alike?

Bulls please no hype talk here, I can't bear it anymore.  Smiley

I thought i had the finger on the pulse of the market. However with this recent rise, Im not so sure. Bear trap or new bull market?

Unfortunately dont have the time to study it more atm. However these things must be taken in context with what else is going on in the world right now.
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May 25, 2013, 06:35:38 AM
 #37

Translation of OP:

"Dear Bitcoin Bear God,

Please grant me 1 wish. I sold all my coins at sub $120 and I want to buy them back cheaper than I sold them. So please let me sound like I am just making a joke here about being a bear when in fact I am subliminally trying to garner more bears to bring the price down for my personal and selfish reasons.

Please bring the price down to ~$90.

Thank you oh great bear god of Bitcoin

RationalSpeculator"


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

That would be your interpretation as well as suspicions.

It contains factual errors that you would have known if you read my posts.

My sale price was not below current price. I made the same amount of money as a buy and hold, but if it crashes I won't lose as much.
 
I always hold onto enough bitcoins to not feel bad if I am wrong. This means if price goes up I make money, if price goes down I lose money.  

I don't think you are funny, I find your post quite irritating actually. Keep the bolds down please. No reason to scream.

Wow someone is quite butt hurt. You can hit the pussy ignore button below my name if you dont like my posts. No one said you HAD TO read them.

You need to lighten up and learn to take a joke. Pull the broomstick out of your rear. Thanks!

 Cheesy

███████████████████████████████████████

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     ²▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓╩    
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. ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM        My PGP fingerprint is A764D833.        SMOOTHIE'S HEALTH AND FITNESS JOURNAL          History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ .
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May 25, 2013, 07:03:35 AM
 #38

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May 25, 2013, 07:31:36 AM
 #39

Translation of OP:

"Dear Bitcoin Bear God,

Please grant me 1 wish. I sold all my coins at sub $120 and I want to buy them back cheaper than I sold them. So please let me sound like I am just making a joke here about being a bear when in fact I am subliminally trying to garner more bears to bring the price down for my personal and selfish reasons.

Please bring the price down to ~$90.

Thank you oh great bear god of Bitcoin

RationalSpeculator"


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

That would be your interpretation as well as suspicions.

It contains factual errors that you would have known if you read my posts.

My sale price was not below current price. I made the same amount of money as a buy and hold, but if it crashes I won't lose as much.
 
I always hold onto enough bitcoins to not feel bad if I am wrong. This means if price goes up I make money, if price goes down I lose money.  

I don't think you are funny, I find your post quite irritating actually. Keep the bolds down please. No reason to scream.

Wow someone is quite butt hurt. You can hit the pussy ignore button below my name if you dont like my posts. No one said you HAD TO read them.

You need to lighten up and learn to take a joke. Pull the broomstick out of your rear. Thanks!

 Cheesy

You are acting like a jerk. I'll take your advise to ignore you.
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May 25, 2013, 07:43:09 AM
 #40

Translation of OP:

"Dear Bitcoin Bear God,

Please grant me 1 wish. I sold all my coins at sub $120 and I want to buy them back cheaper than I sold them. So please let me sound like I am just making a joke here about being a bear when in fact I am subliminally trying to garner more bears to bring the price down for my personal and selfish reasons.

Please bring the price down to ~$90.

Thank you oh great bear god of Bitcoin

RationalSpeculator"


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

That would be your interpretation as well as suspicions.

It contains factual errors that you would have known if you read my posts.

My sale price was not below current price. I made the same amount of money as a buy and hold, but if it crashes I won't lose as much.
 
I always hold onto enough bitcoins to not feel bad if I am wrong. This means if price goes up I make money, if price goes down I lose money.  

I don't think you are funny, I find your post quite irritating actually. Keep the bolds down please. No reason to scream.

Wow someone is quite butt hurt. You can hit the pussy ignore button below my name if you dont like my posts. No one said you HAD TO read them.

You need to lighten up and learn to take a joke. Pull the broomstick out of your rear. Thanks!

 Cheesy

You are acting like a jerk. I'll take your advise to ignore you.

And another one bites the dust.  Tongue

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