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Author Topic: Alright, be totally honest: who saw this one coming?  (Read 4844 times)
oda.krell
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May 25, 2013, 10:27:38 AM
 #1

I mean of course the (mini?) rally of the past 2 days. Did you suspect this would happen?

I can say for sure I wasn't prepared for it at all. Volume was ultra-thin, and the indicators I tend to rely on (e.g. Chaikin money flow) had looked spotty for the past days, so I expected horizontal price movement, with maybe a slight upwards direction, but nothing like what actually happened.

What's your story?

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May 25, 2013, 11:08:17 AM
 #2

you joined only a month ago. would you have been here 2 years ago, you would have seen this several times … no surprise.
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May 25, 2013, 11:43:38 AM
 #3

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=211771.0
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May 25, 2013, 11:49:47 AM
 #4

I mean of course the (mini?) rally of the past 2 days. Did you suspect this would happen?

I can say for sure I wasn't prepared for it at all. Volume was ultra-thin, and the indicators I tend to rely on (e.g. Chaikin money flow) had looked spotty for the past days, so I expected horizontal price movement, with maybe a slight upwards direction, but nothing like what actually happened.

What's your story?

Pretty sure everyone saw it coming. It was discussed in the wall thread for awhile. Bids stacking way up, Asks were dropping off, people saw this rally coming from a mile away.

It was going sideways for weeks, this was a pretty minor bump. Just people tired of waiting for cheap coins. Less volatility helps get new investor in. With no buying Monday-Thursday, it was pretty clear on Friday that the bids were going to have to actually cross over to get some coins. So they did.  Grin

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Quantum_Negatum
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May 25, 2013, 12:48:18 PM
 #5

I've been anticipating sub $20 for weeks. So, not me.  Undecided
oda.krell
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May 25, 2013, 02:05:57 PM
 #6

I've been anticipating sub $20 for weeks. So, not me.  Undecided


I didn't have quite that pessimistic an outlook, but like I said, I didn't see this coming either.


and to be honest. I'm a bit surprised about the "well duh, it was obvious" attitude of the other posters. I'm following the wall thread pretty closely, and at least in there, there was nothing like a consensus that we're about to not only break 125. but 130 as well, in one swift motion.

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet to use? I suggest to take a look at Electrum.
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: user friendly, fast, and one of the safest ways to store, send or receive bitcoins.
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May 25, 2013, 02:44:52 PM
 #7

I've been trading every day since 2011 and I didn't see that little mini rally coming.  I thought we would do a slow slide down, stay sideways forever like last year, or maybe a little grind up.  One thing I do know, buy on this weekend dip, because we might hit all time highs next week when the banks open and more people can get USD into the exchanges.  Oh, and don't watch just Mt Gox.  Seems like the time is right for the other exchanges to handle more of the volume.
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May 25, 2013, 02:48:15 PM
 #8

One thing I do know, buy on this weekend dip, because we might hit all time highs next week when the banks open and more people can get USD into the exchanges.

Hahahaha. I'll bet you 1:10 that Bitcoin won't hit new alltime highs until the end of next week (until begin of Monday, UTC). Let me know if you are willing to do that, and how much volume (denominated in BTC). Source should be mtgoxUSD.
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May 25, 2013, 03:10:36 PM
 #9

I've been anticipating sub $20 for weeks. So, not me.  Undecided


I didn't have quite that pessimistic an outlook, but like I said, I didn't see this coming either.


and to be honest. I'm a bit surprised about the "well duh, it was obvious" attitude of the other posters. I'm following the wall thread pretty closely, and at least in there, there was nothing like a consensus that we're about to not only break 125. but 130 as well, in one swift motion.

If there's consensus on anything you pretty much know for sure that it's not going to happen. Wink

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May 25, 2013, 03:32:03 PM
 #10

you joined only a month ago. would you have been here 2 years ago, you would have seen this several times … no surprise.

this community relies on this waaaayyyy too much

case in point, I had wired to Mt. Gox months before I made an account here
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May 25, 2013, 03:51:13 PM
 #11

One thing I do know, buy on this weekend dip, because we might hit all time highs next week when the banks open and more people can get USD into the exchanges.

Hahahaha. I'll bet you 1:10 that Bitcoin won't hit new alltime highs until the end of next week (until begin of Monday, UTC). Let me know if you are willing to do that, and how much volume (denominated in BTC). Source should be mtgoxUSD.
I don't make bets on the price off the exchanges.  I only bet on the price by placing orders on the exchanges.  The more important part of my post that I was trying to get across was to buy the weekend dip.  It's usually a pretty safe bet.  There has only been a handful of weekends, IMO, where the price didn't dip on the weekends.

I really suck at math so correct me if I am wrong, but my current theory is that if the "first" peak was at $32, then the second at $266, then we should see a new peak at $2200, or if you want to round out the next gain to 1,000% then we might see $2660.  It might take a week, or it might take 5 years.  Personally, I am selling at just under $1,000 so that I can wipe out my fiat debt  Wink
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May 25, 2013, 04:18:59 PM
 #12

If you think you're going to see a new ATH in the middle of a market that only trades sideways until someone with 1MM+ in fiat comes and moves the market +$3, you're delirious.
Kazu
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May 25, 2013, 07:33:18 PM
 #13

To be honest I was completely confused at why the huge dip after we hit $165-ish happened in the first place. I mean, I expected a drop down to like $140, but more than that was completely unexpected for me. I still think it should be about $140 now, tbh.

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May 25, 2013, 09:08:43 PM
 #14

I saw it coming.  This is just the beginning, IMO.

I just follow a Goomboo-like strategy and pay alot of attention to the Bollinger width.

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May 25, 2013, 09:35:04 PM
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It's simply reversion the 2013 exponential growth trend. It should go higher in the coming days/weeks until it catches up. Right now it should be above $150, so it's likely to make another upward move soon.
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May 25, 2013, 10:05:53 PM
 #16

I saw it coming, or at least thought it was bullish, but before it happened I was beginning to second guess myself.

The Genesis Block predicted it pretty well:
http://www.thegenesisblock.com/bitcoin-trading-are-we-primed-for-a-major-move-higher/
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May 25, 2013, 10:51:07 PM
 #17

I predicted $266 by the weekend. So my prediction was only half right.

$532 by next weekend.

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May 26, 2013, 04:25:40 AM
 #18

I've been anticipating sub $20 for weeks. So, not me.  Undecided


I didn't have quite that pessimistic an outlook, but like I said, I didn't see this coming either.


and to be honest. I'm a bit surprised about the "well duh, it was obvious" attitude of the other posters. I'm following the wall thread pretty closely, and at least in there, there was nothing like a consensus that we're about to not only break 125. but 130 as well, in one swift motion.

"One swift motion" is relative. $123 to $125 was two days. $125 to $130 was two more days. Those kind of movements used to happen in 2 hours, not 2 days.

In terms of saw it coming, I meant like 6-12 hours before it happened. Bid walls increasing, getting closer to the edge, more depth. As that happened the asks started to fall off (a lot at $130). It was a pretty slow moving rally. Sideways action is usually a bullish sign.

In terms of did you see this coming 1-2-3 weeks ago, no one knows that kind of stuff for sure. You can't predict the DHS stuff. You can't predict getting Goxed. You can't predict Liberty Reserve getting nuked or China cracking down on BTC. We've had a lot of good news, millions of VC money (that never existed in 2011), some conference hype. This is a long slow slide up. Go Bitcoins!

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johnblaze
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May 26, 2013, 04:48:11 AM
 #19

One thing I do know, buy on this weekend dip, because we might hit all time highs next week when the banks open and more people can get USD into the exchanges.

^^at first i thought he was making a joke with this line



I don't make bets on the price off the exchanges.  I only bet on the price by placing orders on the exchanges.  The more important part of my post that I was trying to get across was to buy the weekend dip.  It's usually a pretty safe bet.  There has only been a handful of weekends, IMO, where the price didn't dip on the weekends.

I really suck at math so correct me if I am wrong, but my current theory is that if the "first" peak was at $32, then the second at $266, then we should see a new peak at $2200, or if you want to round out the next gain to 1,000% then we might see $2660.  It might take a week, or it might take 5 years.  Personally, I am selling at just under $1,000 so that I can wipe out my fiat debt  Wink

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May 26, 2013, 04:52:24 AM
 #20

Yep, it's just the beginning  Wink
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