BitCoins Supply Contraction vis Mt Gox Means.....

[truthcracker]

Supply demand.  Mt Gox Closes - Less coins for many days holding coins, same level of demand.  Why hasn't the price shot up?  Its because most of the demand is people swapping coins between each other bidding the price up.  The vendors are net sellers (unless they are deflationary hoarders) the miners are net sellers so really what we are seeing here is

a transfer of wealth from late speculators to early adopters, who can also influence the market via their HUGE position in bitcoins.

Still like the deflationary logarithmically injected boot strap model?

PS

I love it when people say their money is tied up in Mt Gox, they have BITCOINS mostly they hope to TRADE for money.  How many people are hoping to buy goods and services for bitcoins when the exchange opens?  You all want to sell high and convert back to USD - think about it!  Its become a religion and i'm a heretic - bring on the mindless punishment until there are no 72 bitcoin virgins in speculator heaven.

[qualia8]

I have more $ in Mt.Gox than BTC.  (My acct is negative in BTC.)  If everyone is like me, then there is more pent-up cash than bitcoin in Gox.  Who knows what the ratio is on the whole?  You presume everyone has bitcoins there, but not dollars.  Any argument for that presumption?

[proudhon]

I have more $ in Mt.Gox than BTC.  (My acct is negative in BTC.)  If everyone is like me, then there is more pent-up cash than bitcoin in Gox.  Who knows what the ratio is on the whole?  You presume everyone has bitcoins there, but not dollars.  Any argument for that presumption?

In fact, as reported by several people on the forums (if I remember right) and on IRC, just prior to the hackcrash people were just starting to get funds cleared into Dwolla and then to MtGox.  I doubt everybody spent all their cash prior to the crash and I'm guessing there's quite a lot of USD stuck in MtGox right now.  That, in itself, might explain the flat exchange rate over the past few days (i.e. the people with the money can't use it right now).  Add to that the fact that the whole event has got people a little on edge.