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Author Topic: Hmm... is it time to crash BTC exchange rates yet?  (Read 8855 times)
BTConomist (OP)
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May 30, 2013, 07:42:20 AM
 #41


+1 you hit the nail right on the head. I don't know what this "BTConomist" guy's deal is, but he's certainly not much of an economist Grin 


That's correct, I'm not an economist... there's BTC in place of "ec"!


Bitcoins are earned, not traded! If you plan on hoarding BTC, you're on my target list. (And yes, it is possible to swim in BTC.)

Don't give me that Bull... I'm one of those honey eating Bears that the bees hope to never meet again... Viva la BTC!!!
abbyd
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May 30, 2013, 09:28:18 AM
 #42

Your rhetoric sounds like someone on investorhub.com forums panicking about their short position and bashing the hell out of a stock.   Roll Eyes

Although that was funny, let's keep it civil. This is a good thread with minimal bashing. Some good ideas are being put forth.

Here are a few thoughts:

* No reason to get butthurt about hoarding - you do what you want with your coin.
* Basic necessities and durable good will always be in demand - let's make these available via BTC!
* WE ARE ALL SPECULATORS - Bitcoin is not proven yet: we could all lose 100% of value, or increase our wealth 10-fold...
* Inflationary currency encourages spending and punishes saving, deflationary currency encourages saving and punishes spending (however, "life is finite", as one said here)
* Bitcoin is an inflation hedge - the fact that it's stable right now implies that it's losing a bit of value against fiat...
* Bitcoin is SIMILAR to the financial networks that the global elite use - every day US $5 trillion changes hands electronically...

In case nobody has noticed: we're pretty close to World War III right now, which will have a dramatic impact on trade, valuations, and the global geopolitical balance.
freedomno1
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May 30, 2013, 09:33:21 AM
 #43


Deflationary currencies works opposite to inflationary...


Yet the values of both are still driven by spending: one slowly looses its value as the money supply increases (i.e. more currency units in circulation), the other slowly gains its value as the money supply increases (i.e. more bitcoin base units in circulation; bitcoin base units are not to be confused with bitcoins — currently, there are 100,000,000 base units per each bitcoin).



You two bitcoin is inflationary as long as we live
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply
Block   Reward Era    BTC/block    Year    Start BTC    BTC Added    End BTC    BTC Increase    End BTC % of Limit
0   1   50.00   2009   0   2625000   2625000   infinite   12.500%
52500   1   50.00   2010   2625000   2625000   5250000   100.00%   25.000%
105000   1   50.00   2011   5250000   2625000   7875000   50.00%   37.500%
157500   1   50.00   2012   7875000   2625000   10500000   33.33%   50.000%
210000   2   25.00   2013   10500000   1312500   11812500   12.50%   56.250%
262500   2   25.00   2014   11812500   1312500   13125000   11.11%   62.500%
315000   2   25.00   2015   13125000   1312500   14437500   10.00%   68.750%
367500   2   25.00   2016   14437500   1312500   15750000   9.09%   75.000%
420000   3   12.50   2017   15750000   656250   16406250   4.17%   78.125%
472500   3   12.50   2018   16406250   656250   17062500   4.00%   81.250%
525000   3   12.50   2019   17062500   656250   17718750   3.85%   84.375%
577500   3   12.50   2020   17718750   656250   18375000   3.70%   87.500%
630000   4   6.25   2021   18375000   328125   18703125   1.79%   89.063%
682500   4   6.25   2022   18703125   328125   19031250   1.75%   90.625%
735000   4   6.25   2023   19031250   328125   19359375   1.72%   92.188%
787500   4   6.25   2024   19359375   328125   19687500   1.69%   93.750%

And that's the chart for the short term XD Speculators

Anyways just uses good ol copy and paste here

Because the monetary base of bitcoins cannot be expanded, the currency would be subject to severe deflation if it becomes widely used. Keynesian economists argue that deflation is bad for an economy because it incentivises individuals and businesses to save money rather than invest in businesses and create jobs. The Austrian school of thought counters this criticism, claiming that as deflation occurs in all stages of production, entrepreneurs who invest benefit from it. As a result, profit ratios tend to stay the same and only their magnitudes change. In other words, in a deflationary environment, goods and services decrease in price, but at the same time the cost for the production of these goods and services tend to decrease proportionally, effectively not affecting profits. Price deflation encourages an increase in hoarding — hence savings — which in turn tends to lower interest rates and increase the incentive for entrepreneurs to invest in projects of longer term.

So don't get me wrong guys but I'm just saying that I'm going to Side with The Austrians and Kick Keyne's points and OP to the curve Smiley
Sure spend it save it but the economy will solve these problems itself

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BTConomist (OP)
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May 30, 2013, 10:14:07 AM
 #44


I'm going to Side with The Austrians and Kick Keyne's points and OP to the curve Smiley


Doesn't anyone notice that my thinking is not driven by neither Austrian nor Keynesian economics?
When interpreting my hints, try not to lead with the economic viewpoint that's familiar to you.
Focus on the roles that the miners play in the context of bitcoin-based economy.


Bitcoins are earned, not traded! If you plan on hoarding BTC, you're on my target list. (And yes, it is possible to swim in BTC.)

Don't give me that Bull... I'm one of those honey eating Bears that the bees hope to never meet again... Viva la BTC!!!
BTConomist (OP)
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May 30, 2013, 10:26:31 AM
 #45


Don't tell me what to do with my bitcoins.


Are you a bitcoin miner? If you are, do you mind sharing how does it feel to be a central bank of bitcoin economy?


Bitcoins are earned, not traded! If you plan on hoarding BTC, you're on my target list. (And yes, it is possible to swim in BTC.)

Don't give me that Bull... I'm one of those honey eating Bears that the bees hope to never meet again... Viva la BTC!!!
freedomno1
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May 30, 2013, 10:30:00 AM
 #46


I'm going to Side with The Austrians and Kick Keyne's points and OP to the curve Smiley


Doesn't anyone notice that my thinking is not driven by neither Austrian nor Keynesian economics?
When interpreting my hints, try not to lead with the economic viewpoint that's familiar to you.
Focus on the roles that the miners play in the context of bitcoin-based economy.



Well if we don't use economics that leaves human actions and psychology and of course philosophy
If you wish we can discuss it from Political Economy and meet halfway Smiley

Believing in Bitcoins and it's ability to change the world
jml
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May 30, 2013, 03:38:08 PM
 #47


Don't tell me what to do with my bitcoins.


Are you a bitcoin miner? If you are, do you mind sharing how does it feel to be a central bank of bitcoin economy?



How can you compare a single miner (if he was) to being a central bank?? That comparison is out of order.

"Everything is a matter of degree"
BTConomist (OP)
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May 30, 2013, 05:59:55 PM
 #48

Don't tell me what to do with my bitcoins.
Are you a bitcoin miner? If you are, do you mind sharing how does it feel to be a central bank of bitcoin economy?

How can you compare a single miner (if he was) to being a central bank?? That comparison is out of order.


"a" central bank, not "the" central bank... Together, they represent the miners cartel.


Bitcoins are earned, not traded! If you plan on hoarding BTC, you're on my target list. (And yes, it is possible to swim in BTC.)

Don't give me that Bull... I'm one of those honey eating Bears that the bees hope to never meet again... Viva la BTC!!!
ZephramC
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May 30, 2013, 07:20:39 PM
 #49

I think BTConomist theories are built on assertion that it is possible to monopolize mining or at least that it is somehow possible for decisively big proportion of miners to collude or to follow common goal which goes against interests of majority of BTC Economy.
I simply do not share this assertion in the longer than short-term.
jml
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May 30, 2013, 07:38:02 PM
 #50

I think BTConomist theories are built on assertion that it is possible to monopolize mining or at least that it is somehow possible for decisively big proportion of miners to collude or to follow common goal which goes against interests of majority of BTC Economy.
I simply do not share this assertion in the longer than short-term.

I believe BTConomist has a theory that there is an oligopoly going on with the miners. I do not share BTConomist's view like ZephramC has already stated because I believe that these are unfounded claims and based on speculative analysis of one person who wants BTC to crash; OP title says it all!

"Everything is a matter of degree"
lophie
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May 30, 2013, 08:05:11 PM
 #51

Dunno about the posts. just wanted to tell you about my part in Bitcoin. I speculate, Mine, Hoard, spend (Alot on alot, directly and not through fiat), Using Bitcoin to startup my upcoming services and goods that I offer for bitcoins (Anime shop, VPN solution, others). Hoarding is not bad, There is the wealth effect, need to accumulate capital and other aspects and not just hoarding for savings and speculating on future prices.

Will take me a while to climb up again, But where is a will, there is a way...
jml
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May 30, 2013, 10:15:52 PM
 #52

Dunno about the posts. just wanted to tell you about my part in Bitcoin. I speculate, Mine, Hoard, spend (Alot on alot, directly and not through fiat), Using Bitcoin to startup my upcoming services and goods that I offer for bitcoins (Anime shop, VPN solution, others). Hoarding is not bad, There is the wealth effect, need to accumulate capital and other aspects and not just hoarding for savings and speculating on future prices.

I do the same, mine, hoard and spend just like anybody does with fiat. The problem is that not many businesses (or local businesses) accept bitcoin which is a shame.

"Everything is a matter of degree"
BTConomist (OP)
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May 30, 2013, 10:47:17 PM
 #53


The problem is that not many businesses (or local businesses) accept bitcoin which is a shame.


That's because, as a miner, you are not giving the merchants a good enough reason to accept it... Remember, speculative bubbles are mainly designed for the speculators, not merchants! Fortunately, there is an approach that can benefit both parties to a transaction, all thanks to the speculators: the original VCs of bitcoin economy. The only problem is that we have to wait for the vaccine to do its magic first, don't we? And if the vaccine doesn't work, there's always a poison pill we can fall back on.


Bitcoins are earned, not traded! If you plan on hoarding BTC, you're on my target list. (And yes, it is possible to swim in BTC.)

Don't give me that Bull... I'm one of those honey eating Bears that the bees hope to never meet again... Viva la BTC!!!
jml
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May 30, 2013, 11:22:59 PM
 #54


The problem is that not many businesses (or local businesses) accept bitcoin which is a shame.


That's because, as a miner, you are not giving the merchants a good enough reason to accept it.

Why do you individually target miners? Do you have a grudge against them? Where have I said that I was not giving merchants a reason?

One of the problem genres which you are really missing here is education which leads to adoption; not many people still know what a bitcoin. Especially people living in rural areas were broadband is virtually non existent suffer from this divide. I would call this the "bitcoin divide" following from the digital divide where there are people who do not have access to a computer with Internet access or do not have an idea what it is or how to use it. It is complex aleady for someone with very little computer experience to understand technicalities on PKI's, encryption and security overall.

I am more focussed about small businesses and communities taking this as a form of payment rather than starting with the corporate giants.

"Everything is a matter of degree"
freedomno1
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May 30, 2013, 11:42:58 PM
 #55

BTC's been here since June 2011 even he must admit it is progressing forward  Grin

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BTConomist (OP)
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May 31, 2013, 10:46:42 PM
Last edit: May 31, 2013, 11:01:39 PM by BTConomist
 #56


Miners, as promised, here's a nice bid wall for your taking... It is now completely up to you not to miss this great opportunity.





P.S. And please, do consider joining me at the negotiation table... Don't make me reach for the poison pill.


Bitcoins are earned, not traded! If you plan on hoarding BTC, you're on my target list. (And yes, it is possible to swim in BTC.)

Don't give me that Bull... I'm one of those honey eating Bears that the bees hope to never meet again... Viva la BTC!!!
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June 01, 2013, 06:57:18 PM
 #57


 So, doing away with the GOLD 2.0 mania throughout the bitcoin community (through education on the inner workings of BTC currency) is the first step to getting the miners to start putting into circulation more batches of bitcoins.


Why are miners not circulating coins?  Are you implying that they should PRODUCE more coins or just SPEND more coins?
BTConomist (OP)
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June 01, 2013, 08:30:30 PM
 #58

So, doing away with the GOLD 2.0 mania throughout the bitcoin community (through education on the inner workings of BTC currency) is the first step to getting the miners to start putting into circulation more batches of bitcoins.

Why are miners not circulating coins?  Are you implying that they should PRODUCE more coins or just SPEND more coins?


By "circulating" I merely imply SPEND more coins... But to answer you first question, why would miners be motivated to consistently spend coins to fuel the bitcoin economy if they believed in the GOLD 2.0 miracle? Hence the need for the vaccine against the GOLD 2.0 bug.


Bitcoins are earned, not traded! If you plan on hoarding BTC, you're on my target list. (And yes, it is possible to swim in BTC.)

Don't give me that Bull... I'm one of those honey eating Bears that the bees hope to never meet again... Viva la BTC!!!
bigbeninlondon
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June 01, 2013, 11:41:50 PM
 #59

Hence the need for the vaccine against the GOLD 2.0 bug.



So the vaccine is for the miners who don't spend.  I see.
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June 03, 2013, 07:57:31 AM
 #60


If btc was limitless, then there would be no need for hoarding...


But it is limitless!...

You are wrong, it is limited and finite by issuing 21 million coins in its lifetime.

Quote
"Once a predetermined number of coins have entered circulation, the incentive can transition entirely to transaction fees and be completely inflation free"

http://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

Halving of rewards occurs every 210,000 blocks being solved, see geometric equation:
http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/161/how-many-bitcoins-will-there-eventually-be



Yes, because we'll still be using Bitcoins in 2147. If we're not off this planet this century, I'm going back in time to tell the aliens not to bother.

Calling Tortoise and Achilles, there's a 3rd degree Zeno incomputence emergency in forum 121342. Zeno 3 forum 121342. Over.

EASY CALCULATION FOR TRADES: 1 Million is 1x10e6. 1 Satoshi is 1x10e-8. 1 M sat is 1x10e-2. 100 M sat is 1. If 1 herpcoin = 100 derptoshi then
1 M herpcoin @ 001 derptoshi = 0.01 derpcoin, 1 M herpcoin @ 100 derptoshi = 1.00 derpcoin
Post Scarcity Economics thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3773185
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