monkeybars' BTC predictions

[monkeybars]

Hey all! I'm a newb on the forum as of today.

1. I've read about half of Neal Stephenson's books. After finding out about Bitcoin, I read his short story "The Great Simoleon Caper." What foresight! I really appreciate how he weaves economic themes into his speculative fiction. Currently on the Baroque Cycle and am fascinated to read how the influxes of silver and gold from the Americas affected Europe's economy, etc.

2. Started to get interested in Bitcoin about a month before the last spike in 04/13.

3. Finally bought some BTC after the spike for investment. Would like to get paid in BTC so I can begin spending it regularly.

4. One of the reasons I decided to invest (not just use) BTC is because I think it's going to take over the world monetary system. I've done a bit of research on the size of the U.S. and world economies. Here are my predictions:

• Bitcoin will continue at about 550% annual appreciation until 2018.
• BTC will break $300 in early 2014.
• BTC will break $1,000,000 in late 2018.
• BTC will slow down at that point, leveling out around $3,500,000 around 2021.
• During this 550% annual rise, there will be numerous rapid spikes and cliffs. I predict about 10 spikes/cliffs between now and BTC's plateau early next decade.
• It is possible that USD and other nation-state fiat central-bank currencies will experience inflation and even hyperinflation during BTC's rise. However, it is also conceivable that quantitative squeezing will prevent this as people's wealth is transferred into cryptocurrency.
• Banking systems worldwide will go in to crisis late this decade. Many banking infrastructures will collapse completely. The world will experience financial turmoil as fiat currencies inflate, and liquidity in BTC is adopted too slowly to take fiat borrowing's place. It will be a very rough transition, especially in the developing world. High-tech centers will weather the storm with the least disruption.
• National tax schemes will be eroded to some extent during this process. There will be many more government bankruptcies as a result of the rapid loss of use (and hence value) of national fiat currencies. Governments will attempt, and fail, to control Bitcoin. The power of federal governments will weaken during Bitcoin's rise, and drastically change during the 2020's. Nation-states will hold much less power. Social currency will gradually begin replacing government intrusion and control as the primary glue between strangers in cultures.

Feel free to chime in whether you think I'm right, or totally off the mark.

[frobley]

yes, agree with it, apart from the $ will not be used as a measure of value for ANYTHING by 2021

[pand70]

Your numbers are matching pretty much with my long term analysis that i finished last night.
GJ.

[DMTechie]

I really hope the future of our monetary system is BTC

[monkeybars]

yes, agree with it, apart from the $ will not be used as a measure of value for ANYTHING by 2021

I believe the USD will still exist in 2021. However, it will have a very limited role in the world economy. For example, the oil industry may still use it for some transactions. Gov't employees (those that are left) will probably get paid in it. It will have depreciated by so much by then that people will immediately exchange it for cryptocurrency so that it can be used before it becomes even more worthless.

It's conceivable that the USD will be literally cancelled and recalled by 2030. This would require the IRS to accept cryptocurrency for taxation purposes, a step the Fed and the entire government will be loathe to take.

[JayKEy00]

I hope so, too but i am sure that bitcoin will become big, because its the better and more liberal and effective system.

[Mahav]

well articulated analysis, i'm confident that the first milestone will be seen early next year

[phoxpup]

All this may be true, but BTC just made a nice little correction today.  Showing stability in my book. :-)

[monkeybars]

All this may be true, but BTC just made a nice little correction today.  Showing stability in my book. :-)

Yep. There will be numerous plateaus, corrections, drops and rises in the long term, but 550% annually on average in my prediction.

[odolvlobo]

I would like to see the analysis behind your predictions.

You forgot about the part where the fad dies out and nobody cares about Bitcoin in four years because Paypal and credit cards are good enough.

You also forgot about the part where the Federal Reserve and ECB regulate the exchange of BTC and fiat in the U.S. and Europe so heavily that it withers and dies.

While your pie-in-the-sky/apocalyptic projections are possible, I think mine are just as likely.

[eyeball]

Hey all! I'm a newb on the forum as of today.

1. I've read about half of Neal Stephenson's books. After finding out about Bitcoin, I read his short story "The Great Simoleon Caper." What foresight! I really appreciate how he weaves economic themes into his speculative fiction. Currently on the Baroque Cycle and am fascinated to read how the influxes of silver and gold from the Americas affected Europe's economy, etc.

2. Started to get interested in Bitcoin about a month before the last spike in 04/13.

3. Finally bought some BTC after the spike for investment. Would like to get paid in BTC so I can begin spending it regularly.

4. One of the reasons I decided to invest (not just use) BTC is because I think it's going to take over the world monetary system. I've done a bit of research on the size of the U.S. and world economies. Here are my predictions:

• Bitcoin will continue at about 550% annual appreciation until 2018.
• BTC will break $300 in early 2014.
• BTC will break $1,000,000 in late 2018.
• BTC will slow down at that point, leveling out around $3,500,000 around 2021.
• During this 550% annual rise, there will be numerous rapid spikes and cliffs. I predict about 10 spikes/cliffs between now and BTC's plateau early next decade.
• It is possible that USD and other nation-state fiat central-bank currencies will experience inflation and even hyperinflation during BTC's rise. However, it is also conceivable that quantitative squeezing will prevent this as people's wealth is transferred into cryptocurrency.
• Banking systems worldwide will go in to crisis late this decade. Many banking infrastructures will collapse completely. The world will experience financial turmoil as fiat currencies inflate, and liquidity in BTC is adopted too slowly to take fiat borrowing's place. It will be a very rough transition, especially in the developing world. High-tech centers will weather the storm with the least disruption.
• National tax schemes will be eroded to some extent during this process. There will be many more government bankruptcies as a result of the rapid loss of use (and hence value) of national fiat currencies. Governments will attempt, and fail, to control Bitcoin. The power of federal governments will weaken during Bitcoin's rise, and drastically change during the 2020's. Nation-states will hold much less power. Social currency will gradually begin replacing government intrusion and control as the primary glue between strangers in cultures.

Feel free to chime in whether you think I'm right, or totally off the mark.

• Bitcoin will continue at about 550% annual appreciation until 2018.
• BTC will break $300 in early 2014.
• BTC will break $1,000,000 in late 2018.
• BTC will slow down at that point, leveling out around $3,500,000 around 2021.
• During this 550% annual rise, there will be numerous rapid spikes and cliffs. I predict about 10 spikes/cliffs between now and BTC's plateau early next decade.

PER BITCOIN?![/list]

[monkeymonkey]

Sounds like speculative fiction to me!

[monkeybars]

PER BITCOIN?!

Yes.

[monkeymonkey]

can you show your work?  how did you arrive at these figures?

[monkeybars]

I would like to see the analysis behind your predictions.

You forgot about the part where the fad dies out and nobody cares about Bitcoin in four years because Paypal and credit cards are good enough.

You also forgot about the part where the Federal Reserve and ECB regulate the exchange of BTC and fiat in the U.S. and Europe so heavily that it withers and dies.

While your pie-in-the-sky/apocalyptic projections are possible, I think mine are just as likely.

Definitely pie-in-the-sky. I'm going off the rate of growth over the past years, in comparison to the overall size of the world economy, and a few other economic indicators (currency valuation, banking practices, and commodity infrastructure.)

Paypal and CC are certainly not good enough for everyone, or we wouldnt be talking about this 1.3 billion dollar market on an internet forum. Current money transfer systems are way too expensive, priced for 1970s (or even 1950s) technology, and are primed for an overhaul.

Regulated exchange would not extinguish Bitcoin, as it can still be used as a currency in exchange for goods and services. IMO that would only be a blip in the Bitcoin radar. No government can stop its use as a currency, and additional cryptographic layers can ensure it is not detected for taxation purposes. I see waves of people declaring dwindling percentages of their economic activity (only the USD portion) in the wake of such regulatory action, as people would avoid the heavy penalties associated with exchange and simply opt out of USD. In fact, it's quite possible that it's simply already too late for heavy regulation to hinder adoption of BTC; it could very well accelerate it.

[BitChick]

Your predictions sound as likely as anything else.    I sure hope you are right!  I am totally bullish though so I might be a little biased in my thinking.

[Tropical Rain]

Itll never break !million, but $1000 is realistic before another year down the road.

[monkeybars]

Your predictions sound as likely as anything else.    I sure hope you are right!  I am totally bullish though so I might be a little biased in my thinking.

Why are you bullish? I am for a lot of reasons, but the main one is that BTC performs currency functions better than the other options currently in existence, and provides a framework to add add'l features as needed in future.

[monkeybars]

Itll never break !million, but $1000 is realistic before another year down the road.

Never say never . . .

[monkeybars]

This is a tad bit idealistic, not gonna happen. Tone down your claims by a few orders of magnitude, and give it 20-30 years, and allow for the possibility that might not even be bitcoin, but some separate innovation(s), and I think you will be on the right track.

How old are you? I ask because in the world of technology -- and even technology adoption -- 20-30 years is several generations. Think back to 1988 to see what I mean. The technology landscape has undergone a number of revolutions in the past 25 years, all of which effect Mr. Average's daily life in a major way.

Ten years is a reasonable timeframe for one major tech revolution imo (BTC 2009-2019). http://www.pewinternet.org/~/media/Infographics/Report%20Infographics/2012/16%20-%20Digital%20differences/Internet%20adoption.jpg -- adoption of the Internet 1995-2005 went from cutting-edge to dominant. Considering the widespread impact that changing the world's money supply would have, I think this revolution is on the same scale.

Also, what sort of "separate innovations" do you imagine arising? The "Bit" protocol will be used for much more than just currency. Innovations that build on the API (like Bitmessage) will be arriving during the next decade that revolutionize many other facets of the Internet through distributed cryptographic computation. There may be alterations and additions to the currency/value facets of the API over this time, but I know a viable solution when I see one. Bitcoin -- the protocol that was designed with such elegance -- is it, and it will change the world. Historians will divide economic epochs at the rise of capital in the 17th century, and at the rise of distributed cryptocurrency in the 21st. This is the sea change.

I am optimistic, but definitely don't think suddenly all the world's ills will magically evaporate. I think the level of economic injustice currently being perpetrated will decrease. The implications of that are certainly positive.