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Author Topic: The delay re-opening MtGox has been a good thing  (Read 1454 times)
qualia8
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June 24, 2011, 07:36:03 PM
 #1

Tradehill is near $17 on the eve of MtGox reopening.  If MtGox had reopened right away, given all the anger and freakout on these forums, we would have seen a mass panic fire sale.  We may still see some selling, but the negative emotions have for the most part exhausted themselves and there's excitement instead. 

The crazy conspiracy theories appear to be false and Goxpocalypse has proven to be a minor setback, not a currency killer.  The attention has brought new media interest, new exchanges, new money, new security measures, and (gulp) new mining difficulty.  On the whole, it's a bright day for bitcoin.

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TraderTimm
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June 24, 2011, 07:42:26 PM
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I find it fascinating that we're at 17 on tradehill. The spread on bid/offers has firmed up and there are plenty of size orders in the book. Perhaps we are in for a pleasant surprise when gox finally gets going again...

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
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June 24, 2011, 07:45:00 PM
 #3

Well, don't forget that a *very large* part of the current bitcoin economy is hold in hostage on MtGox.

Also, a lot of people that wanted to invest money have their money currently frozen.

It means that the current situation is somewhat artificial. Will the reopening of MtGox have any impact on the economy, we don't know.

1. Some people want to leave the Bitcoin world and are waiting for their bitcoin on MtGox: price fall
2. On the average, few people leaves : current situation
3. Some people are waiting for their money and waiting for transfers to TradeHill to complete : rally!

The three solutions are equally plausible.


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BitcoinPorn
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June 24, 2011, 07:50:17 PM
 #4

The three solutions are equally plausible.
I love the gambling aspect of Bitcoin.  So much.

qualia8
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June 24, 2011, 07:52:19 PM
 #5

Well, don't forget that a *very large* part of the current bitcoin economy is hold in hostage on MtGox.

Also, a lot of people that wanted to invest money have their money currently frozen.

It means that the current situation is somewhat artificial. Will the reopening of MtGox have any impact on the economy, we don't know.

1. Some people want to leave the Bitcoin world and are waiting for their bitcoin on MtGox: price fall
2. On the average, few people leaves : current situation
3. Some people are waiting for their money and waiting for transfers to TradeHill to complete : rally!

The three solutions are equally plausible.




Nice analysis.  If you don't trust MtGox, the rational thing to do is NOT to sell BTC there.  Just pull your BTC and USD straight from the site.  Sell your BTC on another exchange.

Myself, I have accounts at b7, th, and Mt.Gox, but i'm happy to give MtGox a chance to prove themselves to me.  I'm especially keen on the 2-factor security I'll bet getting for free, at least in the short run.
bitcoinconnection
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June 24, 2011, 07:54:19 PM
 #6

I think so too. We will see how it goes.










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saqwe
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June 24, 2011, 08:03:13 PM
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Well, don't forget that a *very large* part of the current bitcoin economy is hold in hostage on MtGox.

Also, a lot of people that wanted to invest money have their money currently frozen.

It means that the current situation is somewhat artificial. Will the reopening of MtGox have any impact on the economy, we don't know.

1. Some people want to leave the Bitcoin world and are waiting for their bitcoin on MtGox: price fall
2. On the average, few people leaves : current situation
3. Some people are waiting for their money and waiting for transfers to TradeHill to complete : rally!

The three solutions are equally plausible.



well with red friday june10, the heist, mtgox-database-file, i guess to the public #1 is slightly more plausibel

Tronlet
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June 24, 2011, 09:51:50 PM
 #8

That's a great point, OP, I hadn't thought of that. Smiley

That alongside how it's less likely that accounts are stolen the longer Mt. Gox stays down just shows all this rage and panic is ridiculous.

andes
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June 24, 2011, 09:53:52 PM
 #9

I find it fascinating that we're at 17 on tradehill. The spread on bid/offers has firmed up and there are plenty of size orders in the book. Perhaps we are in for a pleasant surprise when gox finally gets going again...

17.2 already.
Oldminer
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June 24, 2011, 09:56:18 PM
 #10

My prediction for the days trading


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elggawf
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June 24, 2011, 10:24:25 PM
 #11

Nice analysis.  If you don't trust MtGox, the rational thing to do is NOT to sell BTC there.  Just pull your BTC and USD straight from the site.  Sell your BTC on another exchange.

... and if you have USD there, the rational thing to do is buy BTC and transfer that out - because you can make sure it's in progress much quicker than you can a bank transfer.

Only direction it can go is up! \o/

^_^
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