Well, don't forget that a *very large* part of the current bitcoin economy is hold in hostage on MtGox.
Also, a lot of people that wanted to invest money have their money currently frozen.
It means that the current situation is somewhat artificial. Will the reopening of MtGox have any impact on the economy, we don't know.
1. Some people want to leave the Bitcoin world and are waiting for their bitcoin on MtGox: price fall
2. On the average, few people leaves : current situation
3. Some people are waiting for their money and waiting for transfers to TradeHill to complete : rally!
The three solutions are equally plausible.
Nice analysis. If you don't trust MtGox, the rational thing to do is NOT to sell BTC there. Just pull your BTC and USD straight from the site. Sell your BTC on another exchange.
Myself, I have accounts at b7, th, and Mt.Gox, but i'm happy to give MtGox a chance to prove themselves to me. I'm especially keen on the 2-factor security I'll bet getting for free, at least in the short run.