Are GPUs still relevant and for how long

[wowc8]

Here's my take:

I have tried to do a lot of research and used calculators etc, however there is a lot of guesswork and I would appreciate more informed opinions.

With ASICs on the horizon - If I were to invest in GPUs:

1) Am I likely to get at least my money back?

Right now, yes.  It will depend on how many months you will mine 24/7, but you can earn your money back.  If I had to guess long-term the answer will still be yes because there are some promising Alt coins out there that are gaining momentum.  

2) Are there realistic options in Alt currencies that the GPU could be useful for vs ASIC - can ASIC at this point or in the near future be used in Alt?

There are several Alt currencies that you can look at for GPU mining.  I like WDC, DGC, BitBar, and Litecoin.  Check out http://www.coinchoose.com/ for profitability compared to Bitcoin or Litecoin.

And, yes/no, ASIC machines will not work well on scrypt based Alt coins due to the memory demands of the scrypt algorithm.  There's only a few Alt coins that an ASIC machine will work on right now, just check which alg the coin uses.  ASICs like the SHA-256 alg.

3) Are there any realistic ASIC options at this point, all the sellers seem rather dodgy to me?

You should define "realistic."  If you mean more affordable (Around the $1000 mark) then the answer is yes, but you may have to wait (pre-order), or buy from eBay.

4) What other angles could I look at other than actually buying Bitcoin of course?

One option that I haven't seen on here yet is trading BTC on an exchange.  Be careful though because loosing money is almost easier than earning it.

Feel free to add any other pearls of wisdom that spring to mind...

Thanks for your time.

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[massnerder]

Do you think there will still be a market for resale to gamers when AMD releases the 9xxx series later this year (they are skipping 8xxx)?

Best Buy still sells 6xxx series cards and lower.  A quick search on ebay shows several 4xxx, 5xxx, and 6xxx series cards currently being bid on.  So, yes.

[Rakessh]

Do you think there will still be a market for resale to gamers when AMD releases the 9xxx series later this year (they are skipping 8xxx)?

Best Buy still sells 6xxx series cards and lower.  A quick search on ebay shows several 4xxx, 5xxx, and 6xxx series cards currently being bid on.  So, yes.

And since they're twice the price of equal games wise performing nVidia cards, one could probably deduce they are bid on by hobbyist bitcoin miners, eh?  
(The ones on eBay that is)

[DPoS]

Thank you all for taking the time to provide feedback - I am going to try a 3 card rig with the hope of not losing too much and will treat it as an hobby, then watch how things develop...

You have to treat it as a hobby.  Less stress.

Besides, mining it is not that expensive comparing to other hobbies. 

Not too many hobbies let you earn back a bit and in most cases, pay for themselves.

exactly.. ask how many 'photographers' ever make anything back from all the lenses, etc they throw down on

[GenTarkin]

they are relevant as long as you can turn a profit from them over power. They can always be sold for nearly what you paid, given they are 7xxx series...gamers will always eat em up.

Do you think there will still be a market for resale to gamers when AMD releases the 9xxx series later this year (they are skipping 8xxx)? It is not officially announced by AMD, but seems to be widely reported that its coming in late 2013.
http://www.mcvuk.com/news/read/amd-confirms-new-volcanic-island-gpus-for-2013-launch/0115398

Yeah, I would think so... it may be at a lower price point, but our GPU's , I would highly doubt will be useful in mining till that time(9xxx)...so most likely the 7xxx from miners would hit months before any new product comes out.
Worse case is one can only get 50-60% what they paid for a 7xxx GPU when done mining...but as long as your mining made up for the rest of it and had a little profit in addition then its still worth it.

[ScaryHash]

GPUs for Bitcoin mining will still make BTC, but at current prices, will stop being profitable by about 22 million difficulty.

This depends on your power cost as well. At 15 cents a Kwh, they stop being profitable closer to 19 million difficulty. If you have cheap power, you could probably extend that to 22 million, roughly.

When they stop returning significantly over power cost is a question that each individual miner has to answer for themselves.

You can also mine other scriptcoins, not just BTC. Most of the BTC mining will probably be going over to ASICs in 6 months tops.

[massnerder]

And since they're twice the price of equal games wise performing nVidia cards, one could probably deduce they are bid on by hobbyist bitcoin miners, eh?  
(The ones on eBay that is)

Maybe true, but I know some folks who absolutely will not buy nvidia or vice versa, for whatever purpose.  I know plenty of gamers who have 'good enough' gaming rigs and who don't need/want to be on the bleeding edge of new tech.  The newest stuff is expensive    For example, I have 7950s in my mining machine and a 6770 in my gaming pc.  Could my games be a little bit prettier with a 7xxx?  Sure.  Does it really affect my gameplay? Nope.  I wonder how many people are waiting for the next series of cards to come out so they can grab a cheaper 7xxx card to game on?

My point is that there will always be a market for older hardware.  I really don't care who buys it or for what, just as long as people will still buy it.  You may not be getting close to what it originally cost, but it will sell.  I used to sell 10-20 year old computer parts on ebay in my old job, and always thought 'why the hell would anyone buy this??'  My boss at the time even got mad at me for trying to sell some new(er) obsolete parts for a few bucks more than I could find them anywhere else, because it was less than half the original price (they were 5+ years old).  Couldn't explain that they weren't worth that much anymore to the guy.... those parts probably still gathering dust and losing value in his office today lol

[FloridaBear]

I have tried to do a lot of research and used calculators etc, however there is a lot of guesswork and I would appreciate more informed opinions.

With ASICs on the horizon - If I were to invest in GPUs:

1) Am I likely to get at least my money back?

IMO, no. See https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=204322.0. With difficulty now at 15.6 million, I think it's a very bad time to buy GPUs strictly for mining. You may be able to mine some BTC and then sell them to make a tiny profit, but I don't think it's worth the risk.

2) Are there realistic options in Alt currencies that the GPU could be useful for vs ASIC - can ASIC at this point or in the near future be used in Alt?

I discussed that in the above linked thread--current GPUs will hash scrypt altcoins while ASICs will not. However, my theory is that GPUs will shift to scrypt coins (mainly LTC), keeping it roughly in line with BTC, until ALL GPUs have shifted over to LTC. There may be a period at that point where LTC mining is somewhat profitable, but FPGA development is already underway for scrypt, and that will doom GPU mining in the same way.

3) Are there any realistic ASIC options at this point, all the sellers seem rather dodgy to me?

I don't really think so. They are either too expensive (e.g. ASICMINER), unavailable, or delivery date too uncertain.

4) What other angles could I look at other than actually buying Bitcoin of course?

Well, you could always look at stocks on btct.co, but the options are pretty limited.

Feel free to add any other pearls of wisdom that spring to mind...

Thanks for your time.

The numbers have gotten even worse after the 28% jump in difficulty. A 7970 put to work today will likely make less than 1 BTC over its useful life--which is probably only until mid-October before it costs more to run than it earns when difficulty hits about 60 million (this is for 650 MH@250W). Currently, you will start at only about $2 per day, and that likely drops to $1 by the end of July.

Don't start a GPU farm!

[massnerder]

yes OP, read the thread linked above, but just incase you're lazy 

I believe some miners purposely give out bad advice on forums like this one to discourage new folks from mining because it will chip away at their own personal profits. How many GPUs do you own, FloridaBear? 

This!  I have been mining altcoins with my rig and to say that they are dead when some of them are consistently more profitable than btc to mine screams 'i have ulterior motives'... Historically LTC has been ~30% more profitable to mine than BTC, and I will admit that it was a wash 2 weeks ago when this thread was posted, but look again and you will see that it is back up to 30% more profitable today.  Some alts even better than that.  I have made 1btc in the last week on a single rig with those 'dead' altcoins....

That's a lot of assumptions, without any actual knowledge or proof, other then speculation on hypothetical possibilities.

Thus, useless. That was the point of my prior post.

Who are you warning? Yourself? Why do you care what others do? Obviously your point of view is as limited as your knowledge, but I may just be assuming that. (Irony)

So, should we all buy "non-existent, non-shipping", ASIC's that won't be here until after Christmas?

..........

The "defense" was that alt-coins were a FAD...Yea, they WERE, so were bitcoins. Bitcoins didn't make bitcoins valuable, we did, and where we go, the value goes. With our hardware.

But anyways... Don't buy GPU's. That leaves more hashing for me, here or there... On a plane, on a train, in Spain, or in the rain. I don't give a flying f**k, as long as it turns green, and comes from my f**king machine!

lol, yes, FB... why exactly do you care enough to start a new thread warning everybody to stay away from gpus?  Are we all buying them on your credit card?  I must have missed the memo, I will take some free 7950s please.   

FloridaBear has clearly made way too many assumptions to have any credibility...this is just more button pushing to try and curb the flood of new miners coming to the market.

Do not buy GPUs so I can make a bigger profit 
Thats a serious advise to all of you.

and here is an example of it working out for another newbie...

I'm doing alright so far... Only been doing it about 3 weeks and just last night added enough to get me to 1.5 Gh/s.  New cards bought on sale with rebates and selling game cards brings the cost way down.  Installing them in a handful of systems I had laying around- I've brought in about $140 for $700 in expense so far.

I'm having fun, and it looks like I'm going to do alright- no it won't make me rich, but especially when it comes time to sell cards I think I'll come out ahead by a fair bit.

The real point is that FB here can't see the future any better than you or me.  Read up and do what you want, don't put anything not expendable 'hobby money' into btc and don't expect to get rich ....  you'll be alright and might even have some fun doing it.

Come on guys, this is the same old story over and over, don't do this, don't do that...for how many threads now since last year?

Take the risk, don't take the risk, whatever.

Better wait until GPU mining IS dead and open a I've told you so thread.

[daemondazz]

exactly.. ask how many 'photographers' ever make anything back from all the lenses, etc they throw down on

I got in by treating it as a hobby that happens to return a bit of investment back. I've dropped about $5k into model helicopters and got nothing back except the fun of flying (and needing to put more money in whenever I crash).

With bitcoin, I've dropped about $1500 and so far gotten about $500 back from mining, and love the cool facter as well.

[Choadmeyer]

I completed my first mining rig about a month ago (4 x 7950) and have been mining 24/7 since I got things going. I'm right at 2.4 GH/s, and to be honest, I'm fairly underwhelmed with my payouts. I've been mining in Slush's pool and the dramatic hash rate increase has really slashed my per block earnings. It's not just Slush though. The worldwide hash rate has gone up a dramatic 40,000 GH in the past 30 days, and Slush's pool is up 50%.

http://blockchain.info/charts

I would do some serious pondering if you are concerned about investing in a GPU rig. I have no doubt you will make your money back, it's just a question of how long.

You could, of course, try my approach. Just keep telling yourself it's a hobby until you're out of the red.

Then you can tell your spouse or friends how invisible coins paid for your computer.  

[daemondazz]

Then you can tell your spouse or friends what a sharp investor you are... 

Hah, mine asked me last night if we'd even reached 1BTC mined in the 7 or so weeks I've been mining. She was quite suprised and relieved I said we're up to about 3½ so far. 1 card paid off, about ¼ through the next one. Well on track for my 6 month ROI estimate for the 4 cards and 2 power supplies.

[Kinetic915]

I completed my first mining rig about a month ago (4 x 7950) and have been mining 24/7 since I got things going. I'm right at 2.4 GH/s, and to be honest, I'm fairly underwhelmed with my payouts. I've been mining in Slush's pool and the dramatic hash rate increase has really slashed my per block earnings. It's not just Slush though. The worldwide hash rate has gone up a dramatic 40,000 GH in the past 30 days, and Slush's pool is up 50%.

http://blockchain.info/charts

I would do some serious pondering if you are concerned about investing in a GPU rig. I have no doubt you will make your money back, it's just a question of how long.

You could, of course, try my approach. Just keep telling yourself it's a hobby until you're out of the red.

Then you can tell your spouse or friends how invisible coins paid for your computer.  

Why dont you mine scrypt?  Ive almost paid off my 3 7950s in two months.  I made a big gamble on wdc that paid off though.

[Kinetic915]

exactly.. ask how many 'photographers' ever make anything back from all the lenses, etc they throw down on

I got in by treating it as a hobby that happens to return a bit of investment back. I've dropped about $5k into model helicopters and got nothing back except the fun of flying (and needing to put more money in whenever I crash).

With bitcoin, I've dropped about $1500 and so far gotten about $500 back from mining, and love the cool facter as well.

according to my girlfriend there is no "cool factor" lol

[ReCat]

I completed my first mining rig about a month ago (4 x 7950) and have been mining 24/7 since I got things going. I'm right at 2.4 GH/s, and to be honest, I'm fairly underwhelmed with my payouts. I've been mining in Slush's pool and the dramatic hash rate increase has really slashed my per block earnings. It's not just Slush though. The worldwide hash rate has gone up a dramatic 40,000 GH in the past 30 days, and Slush's pool is up 50%.

http://blockchain.info/charts

I would do some serious pondering if you are concerned about investing in a GPU rig. I have no doubt you will make your money back, it's just a question of how long.

You could, of course, try my approach. Just keep telling yourself it's a hobby until you're out of the red.

Then you can tell your spouse or friends how invisible coins paid for your computer.  

Why dont you mine scrypt?  Ive almost paid off my 3 7950s in two months.  I made a big gamble on wdc that paid off though.

Yeah. I said this in another thread. Mining scrypt really does help. 100 day ROI on a 7950!

[daemondazz]

according to my girlfriend there is no "cool factor" lol

I guess that's a bonus of being married to a geekgurl, lol

[Keldel]

A newly bought GPU will not make the price back from bitcoin.

Maybe you can mine the cost back with litecoin.. It's a big maybe.

[Eastwind]

A newly bought GPU will not make the price back from bitcoin.

Maybe you can mine the cost back with litecoin.. It's a big maybe.

Agree. I am still buying old HD5850 ($120) for mining LTC. At present difficulty level the hardware break even date is about 205 days. If it is not profitable, I will sell the card, for $60.

[erpbridge]

A newly bought GPU will not make the price back from bitcoin.

Maybe you can mine the cost back with litecoin.. It's a big maybe.

If you use sites like coinchoose, dustcoin, or coinwarz, and are actively involved with switching your miners to the most profitable coin at the time (even if its only twice a day... like when you leave for work, and before you go to sleep), and actively and regularly converting those coins at the exchanges (BTC-E, vircurex, cryptsy) to BTC, it is still quite viable to pay down a GPU. If you put some of that BTC into a stock site like BTCT or bitfunder into a dividend paying stock, the initial paydown time will be delayed, but that money is still available to pull out (unlike pyramining), and is gaining some interest in the form of dividends. Now, if you're buying riser cables, a new Power supply, or a whole new system, it will obviously take longer, and yes, could theoretically take too long.

If you are morally opposed to mining any other coin, and insist on mining JUST Bitcoin and nothing else... then yes, GPU mining will probably not pay off in a sensible amount of time. GPUs give certain hashrates... And with the influx of Avalons, Avalon-chip miners, the slow influx of BFL, ASICMINER blades, and the eventual influx of KNC ASICs, the amount of hashes your card can put out compared to the huge rise in difficulty will be negligible. Unless the pricing of BTC/USD increases to match, then yes, GPU mining will be unprofitable. It would THEORETICALLY be possible to pay off that new GPU if you could even guarantee 1 penny per day off it after power costs, but that GPU is not going to live for 75 years.

Scrypt coins were made to address just this issue, the rise of ASICs and eventual obsolescence of GPUs in SHA256.

[Gator-hex]

Not much longer at 1 BTC = $120
600MHs cards work out about $30 profit per BTC after power costs.
It won't be long before it's cheaper the buy the BTC than run the graphics cards at this rate.
If the price of BTC rises GPUs will stay running.