Bears, hold your coins, we are still in a correction

[dnaleor]

First I want to say that I use the weighted Mt. Gox average for different reasons:

*To erase the price arbitrage between different exchanges and to ignore micro-volatility due to the thin market
*Because most shops use the weighted average

This is the chart for the last 6 months:

You can clearly see an uptred started in january (brown line).
Bitcoin is new technology. New users check it out every day. This trend will not go away until a large part of the population is using bitcoin.

The overvalued periods are indicated by red, the undervalued are indicated by green.


But I tend to look at the chart like this:

We are just still in a correction. The overvalued surfaces are not yet completely compensated by undervalued surface.

I predict a drop to 100$, then a fast price spike towards 200$, then a drop in price towards 180$ and then we reverse to the trendline folowed by a steady growth folowing the trendline.

thoughts?

[vokain]

You have a long term time scale vs the typically much shorter time scales of bears here. I can agree with your long term trendline.

[smoothie]

(turns head)

[Frozenlock]

You have a long term time scale vs the typically much shorter time scales of bears here. I can agree with your long term trendline.

Or rather short... why does your trend line begin only in January?

[dnaleor]

You have a long term time scale vs the typically much shorter time scales of bears here. I can agree with your long term trendline.

Or rather short... why does your trend line begin only in January?

start of wide media coverage, etc.

[Ares]

why does the overvalued surface have to be completely compensated by undervalued surface, or even compensated at all?

[dnaleor]

(turns head)

 

[phoenix1]

<chokes on a crisp and falls off his chair>
 

[Vandroiy]

I started wondering whether this is serious at "bears, hold your coins".

Nice exponential trend crossing 10k USD per coin later this year.

This reminds me of updating the necropost I sometimes edit to represent how rich BS&T investors are when Pirate pays, or BurtW specifically. Today is interest day! So if BurtW really paid his "investment", Pirate would now owe him 195444 BTC.

If the trend-line above holds for one year, Bitcoin price will be 200000 USD per Bitcoin. BurtW is then owed 7546533 BTC by Pirate. This means Pirate can still make good with him by paying 1'509'306'600'000 USD at any time within the next year! Maybe with some negotiation he can even settle with 1.5 trillion!

But of course, if he waits a year longer than that, BTC prices at 200M USD a piece will make payment hard.

[smoothie]

I started wondering whether this is serious at "bears, hold your coins".

Nice exponential trend crossing 10k USD per coin later this year.

This reminds me of updating the necropost I sometimes edit to represent how rich BS&T investors are when Pirate pays, or BurtW specifically. Today is interest day! So if BurtW really paid his "investment", Pirate would now owe him 195444 BTC.

If the trend-line above holds for one year, Bitcoin price will be 200000 USD per Bitcoin. BurtW is then owed 7546533 BTC by Pirate. This means Pirate can still make good with him by paying 1'509'306'600'000 USD at any time within the next year! Maybe with some negotiation he can even settle with 1.5 trillion!

But of course, if he waits a year longer than that, BTC prices at 200M USD a piece will make payment hard.

Burtw failed so hard it is funny.

[notme]

First I want to say that I use the weighted Mt. Gox average for different reasons:

*To erase the price arbitrage between different exchanges and to ignore micro-volatility due to the thin market
*Because most shops use the weighted average

This is the chart for the last 6 months:

You can clearly see an uptred started in january (brown line).
Bitcoin is new technology. New users check it out every day. This trend will not go away until a large part of the population is using bitcoin.

The overvalued periods are indicated by red, the undervalued are indicated by green.


But I tend to look at the chart like this:

We are just still in a correction. The overvalued surfaces are not yet completely compensated by undervalued surface.

I predict a drop to 100$, then a fast price spike towards 200$, then a drop in price towards 180$ and then we reverse to the trendline folowed by a steady growth folowing the trendline.

thoughts?

The problem with your transformation is that it requires time to flow backwards.

[fr33d0miz3r]

Bears, hold your coins

and sell your coins @ 30