First I want to say that I use the weighted Mt. Gox average for different reasons:
*To erase the price arbitrage between different exchanges and to ignore micro-volatility due to the thin market
*Because most shops use the weighted average
This is the chart for the last 6 months:
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fanonymouse.org%2Fcgi-bin%2Fanon-www.cgi%2Fhttp%3A%2F%2Fanonymouse.org%2Fcgi-bin%2Fanon-www.cgi%2Fhttp%3A%2F%2Fimg577.imageshack.us%2Fimg577%2F1351%2Fbtcchart1.png&t=663&c=Ba78-7Acz4xF2Q)
You can clearly see an uptred started in january (brown line).
Bitcoin is new technology. New users check it out every day. This trend will not go away until a large part of the population is using bitcoin.
The overvalued periods are indicated by red, the undervalued are indicated by green.
But I tend to look at the chart like this:
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fimageshack.us%2Fa%2Fimg837%2F433%2Fbtcchart2.png&t=663&c=RHV01bQlTq5V8A)
We are just still in a correction. The overvalued surfaces are not yet completely compensated by undervalued surface.
I predict a drop to 100$, then a fast price spike towards 200$, then a drop in price towards 180$ and then we reverse to the trendline folowed by a steady growth folowing the trendline.
thoughts?