I'm mining BTC up until the next difficulty spike which will put me never breakeven if difficulty comes in as I expect it to.
This is what I am talking about. There is tons of BTC (after that, LTC...) mining equipment going "End of Life" very soon. Which coin's value is going to explode next?
It won't directly explode a coins value. Short term its going to be nasty for all cryptocoins. Long term it will be stable or continue to appreciate.
Sequence of events as I predict.
1. Current ASIC miners try to recoupe investment into hardware. Sell off BTC ahead of future ASIC miners.
2. Price of BTC goes down.
3. GPU miners finally exist BTC
4. GPU miners move to LTC
5. GPU miners do not invest aggressively in hardware as most have recouped hardware costs (matured hardware). LTC difficult rises slowly. Most GPU miners moved to LTC when it was 20% more profitable that BTC for a few months.
6. With tight profit margins, rising summer electrical costs, some marginal GPU miners exit the market (maybe to return in winter)
7. Existing miners either:
a. sell off their BTC/LTC as part of the exist strategy
b. hold some of their assets for future appreciation
c. reinvest in other speculative coins.
So short term
1. BTC and LTC will drop in price. Panic amongst the ASIC miners and big GPU miners
2. BTC/LTC Clones will be stagnant.
3. Any alts with sought after features will see difficulties spike but will be volatile as miners dump and investors accumulate.
Long term
1. BTC and LTC will stabilize and appreciate
2. BTC/LTC Clones will still be stagnant.
3. Sought after alts will show long term appreciation trends and investors build bases and miners start to hold for longer periods and miners selling is smaller relative to buying.