Watching Tradehill prices closely...

[allinvain]

Starting to see some signs of a cash out on TH...

I thought economists predicted things, not play-by-play commentary. So, 'professor', anything regarding the future? Don't worry, we won't be too rough on you, after all - economist is one of the few jobs where you can be wrong and still be employed.

I have consistently stated we should see a price of $7-$9 not long after Mt. Gox opens.

Why? Difficulty has gone up, there is ALOT more competition in the exchange market, and there are projects popping up everywhere. What is an indicator to you that we are headed for single digits ?

Lack of trust in the currency.  As of late, it increasingly appears that you have no recourse in the face of criminal activity.

Nope, you sure don't. One mistake and your're fucked. But your only hope is that for the long term the amount you lose to fraudulent activity is far far smaller than the money you actually make. Law of averages and statistics will tear you a new one from time to time.

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[allinvain]

Starting to see some signs of a cash out on TH...

I thought economists predicted things, not play-by-play commentary. So, 'professor', anything regarding the future? Don't worry, we won't be too rough on you, after all - economist is one of the few jobs where you can be wrong and still be employed.

I have consistently stated we should see a price of $7-$9 not long after Mt. Gox opens.

Why? Difficulty has gone up, there is ALOT more competition in the exchange market, and there are projects popping up everywhere. What is an indicator to you that we are headed for single digits ?

Lack of trust in the currency.  As of late, it increasingly appears that you have no recourse in the face of criminal activity.

Welcome to the Wild West. Standard rules don't apply.

Far wilder than the wild west. At least in the wild west if someone fucked with you, you at least had a face to shoot at.

Go git them bitcoins boys! Heeeyaaaaw!

[allinvain]

Highly unlikely this is over...

What to you think is going to happen to the exchange rate when Mt. Gox opens with no BTC in the orderbook?

Tug of war. The disgruntled bitcoiners will dump them like hot potatoes, while the true believers will see this as an opportunity to "buy in cheaply" and as such price will swing wildly until everyone calms down and some sort of equilibrium is reached. If new blood comes in then price will start to crawl back up. If more bad news comes around the weak of heart will be scrambling to dump their coins. Will someone buy them? Perhaps. I hope the true believers don't run out of money. Either way if shit hits the fan someone is going to be left holding the bag. Are the days of 10,000 BTC pizzas coming back? I would doubt it. What exactly will happen? Nobody knows.

[allinvain]

Starting to see some signs of a cash out on TH...

I thought economists predicted things, not play-by-play commentary. So, 'professor', anything regarding the future? Don't worry, we won't be too rough on you, after all - economist is one of the few jobs where you can be wrong and still be employed.

I have consistently stated we should see a price of $7-$9 not long after Mt. Gox opens.

Why? Difficulty has gone up, there is ALOT more competition in the exchange market, and there are projects popping up everywhere. What is an indicator to you that we are headed for single digits ?

Lack of trust in the currency.  As of late, it increasingly appears that you have no recourse in the face of criminal activity.

Who's lacking trust in the actual currency? If anything people are lacking trusts against MTGOX. Not bitcoin lol..

This is the misconception techie types have.  Yes, Mt Gox was the one hacked, however that hacking showed people that they have no recourse when there money is stolen.  A Bitcoin Deposit Insurance Corp. type entity is vital if this currency is to succeed long term.

No, it's a misconception that NON-techie and the ill informed have.

For there to be a BDIC there would have to be a bitcoin bank, and a bitcoin bank it a pretty lame idea until the bank can have recourse against someone who defaults on a loan.

Agreed. If that was to happen it would mean that BTC is recognized legally as a currency. At the very least if they were recognized as a money substitute it would be better than being the equivalent of monopoly money (under the law).

Id like to hear from some lawyer type as to what legal standing BTC currently has. Is it a commodity? etc...

[TraderTimm]

Highly unlikely this is over...

What to you think is going to happen to the exchange rate when Mt. Gox opens with no BTC in the orderbook?

Not to mention there are a wall of bids over at Tradehill.

1,110 BTC @ 14.51
1,150 BTC @ 14.50
1,230 BTC @ 14.45
1,300 BTC @ 14.40

It goes on... that's 4,790 BTC in just a 0.11-cent range. Notional value at a last of 16.00 = $76,640 And it just keeps getting bigger from there...

[grndzero]

Highly unlikely this is over...

What to you think is going to happen to the exchange rate when Mt. Gox opens with no BTC in the orderbook?

Not to mention there are a wall of bids over at Tradehill.

1,110 BTC @ 14.51
1,150 BTC @ 14.50
1,230 BTC @ 14.45
1,300 BTC @ 14.40

It goes on... that's 4,790 BTC in just a 0.11-cent range. Notional value at a last of 16.00 = $76,640 And it just keeps getting bigger from there...

Those are cumulative totals, not individual. The spread between 14.51 and 14.4 is 190. If someone sell 1300 BTC the price will be 14.4.

[TraderTimm]

Those are cumulative totals, not individual. The spread between 14.51 and 14.4 is 190. If someone sell 1300 BTC the price will be 14.4.

Hmm... I'll have to take a closer look, didn't think they grouped them in that way - makes it a bit misleading for the reasons you specified!

[mpfrank]

Highly unlikely this is over...

What to you think is going to happen to the exchange rate when Mt. Gox opens with no BTC in the orderbook?

The price will go to infinity?   

[proudhon]

Looks like we've got a player on TradeHill trying to scare the price down (selling off a bunch then immediately putting up a lower relatively large ask).  I guess somebody from MtGox has found a new home.  Here we go.

[kiko]

Those are cumulative totals, not individual. The spread between 14.51 and 14.4 is 190. If someone sell 1300 BTC the price will be 14.4.

Indeed a wall of 1300 BTC is not very impressive.  I remember watching a 'wall' of buy orders 10k BTC high for coins at $20 crumbling before my eyes just the other week. I learned a valuable lesson that day.

[proudhon]

If you guys thought MtGox was an easy market to manipulate...

[grndzero]

Those are cumulative totals, not individual. The spread between 14.51 and 14.4 is 190. If someone sell 1300 BTC the price will be 14.4.

Indeed a wall of 1300 BTC is not very impressive.  I remember watching a 'wall' of buy orders 10k BTC high for coins at $20 crumbling before my eyes just the other week. I learned a valuable lesson that day.

The whole 'wall' idea is ludicrous anyway... A day's volume could take the price anywhere from $10.01 to $28.97. They are just there to sucker inexperienced traders.

That's only if enough people or 1 person with enough resources is moving the same direction at the same time. Watching the last trades there are people buying and selling at the same price all the time. The volume could, but very rarely will it ever.

[ploum]

Indeed a wall of 1300 BTC is not very impressive.  I remember watching a 'wall' of buy orders 10k BTC high for coins at $20 crumbling before my eyes just the other week. I learned a valuable lesson that day.

I usually consider that under 1500BTC, it is still the current value of bitcoins. Breaking a 1000BTC wall in both direction was usually done in a matter of minutes on mtgox.

[proudhon]

Those are cumulative totals, not individual. The spread between 14.51 and 14.4 is 190. If someone sell 1300 BTC the price will be 14.4.

Indeed a wall of 1300 BTC is not very impressive.  I remember watching a 'wall' of buy orders 10k BTC high for coins at $20 crumbling before my eyes just the other week. I learned a valuable lesson that day.

The whole 'wall' idea is ludicrous anyway... A day's volume could take the price anywhere from $10.01 to $28.97. They are just there to sucker inexperienced traders.

That.  My guess is somebody is setting up to take a bunch of bitcoins away from some of the skittish folks trying their hand at trading at TradeHill.  This should be fun to watch.

[grndzero]

Those are cumulative totals, not individual. The spread between 14.51 and 14.4 is 190. If someone sell 1300 BTC the price will be 14.4.

Indeed a wall of 1300 BTC is not very impressive.  I remember watching a 'wall' of buy orders 10k BTC high for coins at $20 crumbling before my eyes just the other week. I learned a valuable lesson that day.

The whole 'wall' idea is ludicrous anyway... A day's volume could take the price anywhere from $10.01 to $28.97. They are just there to sucker inexperienced traders.

That's only if enough people or 1 person with enough resources is moving the same direction at the same time. Watching the last trades there are people buying and selling at the same price all the time. The volume could, but very rarely will it ever.

Well there ya go... It is precisely the same argument you make when you say:

If someone sell 1300 BTC the price will be 14.4.

Not only is volume going both ways, but any or all of the orders that make up your 'support level' can simply vanish at a moments notice... Annnnd theeen... Someone takes your coins.

So, stop it.

The post was in reply to someone that didn't understand that market depth charts are cumulative the farther they go out. Feel free to nitpick an example though.

[unk]

[Mod: MtGox is re-opening and there is an influx of trolls in the forum trying to play with the fear. This post might or might not be from a troll]

if this note was in fact added by a moderator, it is demonstrative of a very poor moderation practice that ought to be reconsidered.

either the moderators want to stop market manipulation or they don't. to try to do it on one side only, against those 'trying to play with the fear', is itself a more significant kind of market manipulation than the 'trolls' they aim to stop.

many of us, for months, have legitimately warned speculators to be careful and have given sound reasons for that. we pointed out the dangerous concentration at mt. gox and other potentially destabilising forces in the present bitcoin marketplace. we were often labeled 'trolls', told that we must simply be jealous, quite incorrectly informed that we possess no bitcoins in the currently prominent block chain, etc.

i've seen no end of claims on this forum that members are recently engaging in promoting 'fear, uncertainty, and doubt'. but the feel of the forum overall, for more than a year and including the last week, is far more the opposite: 'greed, certainty, and dogma'. those features are more problematic for the broader adoption of the bitcoin technology, and even the currently prominent but seriously problematic block chain, than a few people truly or falsely trying to discourage short-term buying.

[qualia8]

[Mod: MtGox is re-opening and there is an influx of trolls in the forum trying to play with the fear. This post might or might not be from a troll]

if this note was in fact added by a moderator, it is demonstrative of a very poor moderation practice that ought to be reconsidered.

either the moderators want to stop market manipulation or they don't. to try to do it on one side only, against those 'trying to play with the fear', is itself a more significant kind of market manipulation than the 'trolls' they aim to stop.

many of us, for months, have legitimately warned speculators to be careful and have given sound reasons for that. we pointed out the dangerous concentration at mt. gox and other potentially destabilising forces in the present bitcoin marketplace. we were often labeled 'trolls', told that we must simply be jealous, quite incorrectly informed that we possess no bitcoins in the currently prominent block chain, etc.

i've seen no end of claims on this forum that members are recently engaging in promoting 'fear, uncertainty, and doubt'. but the feel of the forum overall, for more than a year and including the last week, is far more the opposite: 'greed, certainty, and dogma'. those features are more problematic for the broader adoption of the bitcoin technology, and even the currently prominent but seriously problematic block chain, than a few people truly or falsely trying to discourage short-term buying.

Good point.  Hysteria goes both ways and I guess some fanboys are actually "trolling" the shorts. 

The mods have already addressed the warning in my case (above) and I can see their point: an influx of manipulating trolls can be really annoying.

[zaphod]

So I was wondering, could one manipulate the market by using a very large, moving 'wall'? What I mean is, put a very large buy order below the current trading level. Then, other traders will move their bids up so they can buy; when they see your bid they assume the price will never get over the 'wall'. Then, if the price moves toward your bid you just cancel it and put a new 'wall' a bit lower. Would this pull the price down, without having to spend any money? Or would this just push the price upward? Or would it have no effect at all?

Have you ever watched the realtime market depth on a NASDAQ stock in a good L2 quote system?  This stuff goes on constantly there.  Computers keep big blocks of bids just below the real bid or just above the real ask...

[FlipPro]

He said price would go to $7, not what it would do after that. If it goes to 7, and then goes back up, then if you buy at seven and sell later you will make profit.

What I pridict is that the price of bitcoin will go up and down a bunch until people figure out what the market is actually at. So take all your smarts, pick a price you think it will be at in two days, put a bunch of buy orders lower than that and sell orders higher and make some money off the volatility! (Don't forget to put new orders in when yours are filled, I predict the price will go up and down past the (next tuesday price) at least 3 times).

I predict the price will stabalize at about $15.

Looks like my prediction was completely wrong. Shows how much I know. No huge fluctuations in price, so boring. I guess Mt Gox is actually less important than everybody thought it was.

Either it's to HIGH and needs to crash ASAP, or it's to slow and boring lol... Bitcoin is perfect. The assessments here are such a joke to the entire finance community as a whole. You guys are wrong so often, I loose count.

[AtlasONo]

Really "mod"? The OP is pretty normal speculation.