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Author Topic: BCH bleeding death?  (Read 2269 times)
Hyperme.sh
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October 12, 2017, 01:28:38 AM
 #41

But since its just another altcoin, it will remain in the public just like hundreds of coins in it existence.

Disagree.

It seems you’ve failed to comprehend my posts in this thread.

BCH is the only airdropped (i.e. not a totally new issuance such as LTC) fork of Bitcoin which is compatible with Satoshi’s immutable design for Bitcoin. SegWit is the fake, and it has huge security holes.

There are very powerful groups that are prepared to buy all your BCH with BTC that they plan to steal back with a chain reorganization. I am talking about people with millions of BTC.

Also the design of SegWit enables any mining cartel to steal all of those outputs, unlike non-SegWit transactions (the BTC for BCH can be stolen because the attacker has the private key for when he spent the BTC for BCH and can double-spend it later).
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October 12, 2017, 02:17:26 AM
 #42

But since its just another altcoin, it will remain in the public just like hundreds of coins in it existence.

Disagree.

It seems you’ve failed to comprehend my posts in this thread.

BCH is the only airdropped (i.e. not a totally new issuance such as LTC) fork of Bitcoin which is compatible with Satoshi’s immutable design for Bitcoin. SegWit is the fake, and it has huge security holes.

There are very powerful groups that are prepared to buy all your BCH with BTC that they plan to steal back with a chain reorganization. I am talking about people with millions of BTC.

Also the design of SegWit enables any mining cartel to steal all of those outputs, unlike non-SegWit transactions (the BTC for BCH can be stolen because the attacker has the private key for when he spent the BTC for BCH and can double-spend it later).

So what do you think about Bitcoin gold? Will this be the same? I can hardly believe it will be able to replace BCH. But certainly it will confuse the market again, and much more those, which are not deeply involved into the crypto market.

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October 12, 2017, 02:23:43 AM
 #43

Via btc and btcchina are giants and I don't hope that they will let bch bleed in a long run. This is the time to fill the bags..I am particularly bullish on Bch.

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October 12, 2017, 02:52:49 AM
 #44

So what do you think about Bitcoin gold? Will this be the same? I can hardly believe it will be able to replace BCH. But certainly it will confuse the market again, and much more those, which are not deeply involved into the crypto market.

Changing the proof-of-work renders the coin not Bitcoin any more, as the majority of mining hardware (by hashrate) in the world suddenly can not mine it.

There’s no such thing as ASIC resistant. I had analysed Equihash in the past in these forums. I had deep discussions with @tromp and others about ASIC resistance.

Changing the proof-of-work hash means it is no longer Bitcoin. Bitcoin gold will be an altcoin and incompatible with Satoshi’s protocol, unlike BCH which afaics is the only compatible fork.

There is no possible change that could be made to proof-of-work so that proof-of-work does not become run by an oligarchy, unless you make it perpetually highly inflationary. The technical explanation is here:

https://gist.github.com/shelby3/e0c36e24344efba2d1f0d650cd94f1c7

Proof-of-work was invented by Mossad to enslave mankind. I was thinking that in 2013, but I did not know at the time that it was the Zionists who were pulling the strings. Seems every time I start writing about the Zionists, then BCT gets slammed with a DDoS attack, so I hope it doesn’t happen again.
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October 12, 2017, 03:07:01 AM
 #45

maybe BCH will be shitcoin, bch can not compete with Bitcoin, because it only has the purpose of replacing bitcoin, while everyone already believes bitcoin. So BCH bleeding..

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October 12, 2017, 03:18:25 AM
 #46

Hi guys,

Seems BCH is going down fast. Is this the moment were BCH is going to bleed death?
Will the downtrent turn or continue?

Please let me know what you think Wink
I don't think bitcoins cash price will be death just because the price is down due to all of the digital coins always be fluctuations in the price so do with bitcoins cash, it started many people who adopted it include today there's projects localbitcoincash take look it
http://www.livebitcoinnews.com/localbitcoincash-will-platform-worth-keeping-eye/ and the the of bitcoins cash price started sideaway won't goes more down for right now.

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Hyperme.sh
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October 12, 2017, 03:21:40 AM
 #47

maybe BCH will be shitcoin, bch can not compete with Bitcoin

BCH is Bitcoin. SegWit is not Bitcoin.

Did you comprehend what I wrote?



Quote
Hi, I'm a holder of Bitcoin cash, and Im interested with your post on "BCH bleeding" thread. And it's give me some fresh Air. Do you have any opinion, when will the bitcoin cash rise again?

At the latest probably November. But I do not know if it will crash in price first. Might stabilize at $300 or might crash further first.
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October 12, 2017, 03:30:35 AM
 #48

I think BCH will continue to fall because everyone is waiting for the next hard fork from BTC. But anyway, investors still believe in BTC very much

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October 12, 2017, 03:35:28 AM
 #49

We have industrial miners mining bitcoin and bitcoincash. Miners need to choose one for a long term predictable profit. (regular switching won't be suitable for large miners.) And Bitcoin is still the king in that algo.

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October 12, 2017, 03:36:32 AM
 #50

But anyway, investors still believe in BTC very much

BCH is BTC. BTCSegWit is not BTC. What are you saying exactly?

Are you saying that most people are ignorant of technology and thus they think SegWit BTC is BTC and thus they are fooled? If so, yes I agree with you and they may lose their BTC because of their ignorance.

We have industrial miners mining bitcoin and bitcoincash. Miners need to choose one for a long term predictable profit. (regular switching won't be suitable for large miners.) And Bitcoin is still the king in that algo.

Bitcoin is the king. So why would SegWit which is not Bitcoin win when in fact SegWit attempts to steal revenue from miners by moving transactions offchain and renders proof-of-work insecure because it creates a booty of “pay to anyone” transactions which a mining cartel can steal.

SegWit is incompatible with Satoshi’s protocol and destroys the security of proof-of-work. BCH is compatible with Satoshi’s protocol and does not create insecurity.

Besides the whales of Bitcoin have already decided and they’re just waiting to trap all the fools in SegWit BTC and steal your BTC from you with a chain reorganization. They’ve warned you all many times but you’re all hard-headed. So the only way they can teach you to respect the immutability of Bitcoin is by taking your BTC away from you.
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October 12, 2017, 04:02:47 AM
 #51

People convert to btc for upcoming btc fork
Well, they do the right thing. Despite the fact that there will eventually be born, as it will have a decent value. I think that no matter how bad a new coin is, it can always be dumped with profit for yourself. Here altkoinov already fluctuates around a thousand, and bitcoin will be only the third.

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October 12, 2017, 04:49:10 AM
 #52


People are converting to btc for upcoming bitcoin gold
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October 12, 2017, 05:07:44 AM
 #53

The linked paper on selfish mining was quite interesting but I did not draw the same conclusion from it.

From the relevant paper section 3.1

http://randomwalker.info/publications/mining_CCS.pdf
Quote

We also assume that miners always have space to include all available transactions. If the block size is not large enough to meet demand for transactions, we believe the qualitative content of all our results continue to hold, but the quantitative impact is mitigated. This belief is supported by the following data, taken from the most recent 1000 blocks (roughly one week’s worth) as of July 11, 2016: of these 1000 blocks, 702 are full. Of the full blocks, the total sum of transaction fees ranges from 0.03 BTC to 4.51 BTC. The mean is 0.49 BTC and the standard deviation is 0.25 BTC, more than half the mean. It’s unclear how to extrapolate these data to the future, but it is clear that there will indeed be fluctuation in the available fees that fit in a block. So if the block size is not large enough to meet demand for trans- actions, even though the available fees immediately after a block is found will not be zero (as in our analysis), they may be significantly lower than (say) ten minutes later. So even though our exact analysis will not apply in this setting, the intuition does carry over.

The paper does not evaluate the situation where block size is limited miners do not have space to include all available transactions in a block, and fluctuations of fees are not large..

Yet this scenario is exactly what you would expect to see in a widely adopted BTC functioning under a gradually increasing block size such as is currently advocated by the Core team.

If anything this paper is a strong argument against the big block folks and BCH as it shows their model of scaling is possibly not viable.

In regards to your argument against small blocks you stated.

https://gist.github.com/shelby3/e0c36e24344efba2d1f0d650cd94f1c7
Quote

Given that the whales and miners are economically the same entity that can form an oligarchy to make the dolphins pay all the transaction fees for the whales’ transactions via miner profits. Regarding this math, the miner that pays to self (or whale who owns the transaction) the transaction fee for those transactions with much higher fees, is not displacing significant transaction fee revenue that would otherwise be earned by not doing so (due to block size being limited), because the whales’ transactions have a much higher multiple of fee per KB than the transactions of the dolphins.


I also do not see how it follows at least from the logic presented that miners and "whales" (how do you define whale in any meaningful way?) are economically the same entity.

I see no reason why a wealthy individual would pay a much higher multiple of fee per KB unless the transaction was time sensitive. It would not be necessary and would amount to giving money to the miner for free.

I agree that the Core roadmap will lead to off chain transactions which will facilitate fractional reserve banking. FRB is a sociatial issue, however, it is the acceptance of a lie (the simultaneous granting of two claims that cannot be simultaneously honored in many circumstances yet are promised to be simultaneously honored) as acceptable and tolerated behavior. I highly doubt any form of cryptocurrency will eliminate FRB as society is not yet ready to embrace truth in this area.

I have seen no realistic threat that would lead to SEGWIT being rolled back and transactions being stolen. Should a group of miners attempt this it would be just another hard fork against consensus. A hard fork based on a foundation of stealing will go no where. The miners could also create a hard fork giving them an extra 21 million bitcoin to make that fork viable, however, they need to convince everyone to go along with it.

That and the reasons above are why I sold all my BCH at 0.172. I will probably also sell my 2X if that forks off and am still on the fence about bitcoin gold. As of today I do not view these non consensus forks as having much if any long term value.

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October 12, 2017, 05:08:04 AM
 #54

People are converting to btc for upcoming bitcoin gold

Each split of BTC increases the overall market cap of cryptocurrency due to the wealth effect.

Thus we can expect this “increased value” to spill out into altcoins in general after the split same as it did for the BCH split. And this time we have two splits coming SegWitch2x and Bitcoin gold.

The more the merrier.
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October 12, 2017, 05:14:55 AM
 #55

I think bitcoin cash grow only at the expense of hyip, which has already passed and that the price will fall.

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October 12, 2017, 05:26:00 AM
 #56

Via btc and btcchina are giants and I don't hope that they will let bch bleed in a long run. This is the time to fill the bags..I am particularly bullish on Bch.

You are very correct but looking at the way it is, those big giants are not the only players in the market and by the time other forks come on board, you tend to have their dedication divided witch each trying to promote their different versions as the best thing which then makes them compete against each other. Don't also forget that a good player knows when to quit the game but I also believe its not yet over for BCH.
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October 12, 2017, 05:32:52 AM
 #57

CoinCube in responding to my prior post, you’ve written nothing to refute the reasons that SegWit is insecure and your BTC can be stolen.

You are trying to argue against the ancillary point I made about it being impossible for proof-of-work to remain under decentralized control. This argument below has nothing to do with why SegWit is insecure and incompatible with Satoshi’s Bitcoin protocol. So you’ve entirely avoided rebutting the main reason I gave you for why BCH is superior to SegWit.

The linked paper on selfish mining…

It’s not primarily a research paper about selfish mining. You’re confused. The selfish mining research paper was Majority is not Enough: Bitcoin Mining is Vulnerable (and several follow on papers of which this one below is not).

The flaw is not due to selfishness, but rather due to misaligned incentives in the protocol when block rewards decline and transaction fees increase.

…was quite interesting but I draw the opposite conclusion from it that you do.

If your response was phrased as one of probing or your ideas you want me to respond to, I would find it to be less hubris than when you as a n00b declare that you can make conclusions accurately, without first testing your ideas against someone more expert in the technological area than you are.

Certainly you would not write in that tone to Core developers would you?

From the relevant paper section 3.1

http://randomwalker.info/publications/mining_CCS.pdf
Quote

We also assume that miners always have space to include all available transactions. If the block size is not large enough to meet demand for transactions, we believe the qualitative content of all our results continue to hold, but the quantitative impact is mitigated. This belief is supported by the following data, taken from the most recent 1000 blocks (roughly one week’s worth) as of July 11, 2016: of these 1000 blocks, 702 are full. Of the full blocks, the total sum of transaction fees ranges from 0.03 BTC to 4.51 BTC. The mean is 0.49 BTC and the standard deviation is 0.25 BTC, more than half the mean. It’s unclear how to extrapolate these data to the future, but it is clear that there will indeed be fluctuation in the available fees that fit in a block. So if the block size is not large enough to meet demand for trans- actions, even though the available fees immediately after a block is found will not be zero (as in our analysis), they may be significantly lower than (say) ten minutes later. So even though our exact analysis will not apply in this setting, the intuition does carry over.

The paper does not evaluate the situation where block size is limited miners do not have space to include all available transactions in a block, and fluctuations of fees are not large..

Yet this scenario is exactly what you would expect to see in a widely adopted BTC functioning under a gradually increasing block size such as is currently advocated by the Core team.

You’re grasping at strings.

The paper clearly points out that since transaction fees are power-law distributed because wealth is, then it is irrelevant whether there are extra transactions waiting in the mempool, because the value of those transactions will be up to an order-of-magnitude less than the ones that fit into the block.

Thus as they say, their model still applies, although the precise quantitative results might be slightly different, the qualitative result is expected to be the same. That qualitative result is the proof-of-work does not converge to consensus when the block rewards is less than the revenue from transaction fees (regardless of the block size).

Sorry you are incorrect in your understanding.

Additionally you are failing to factor in that their analysis does not even begin to touch the surface of the game theories of subverting the consensus when block reward declines for a non-inflationary future, as I alluded to in my discussion of the research which of course as usual you ignored because you ignore everything I write on technology:

Even worse, my mathematical intuition causes me to doubt whether the complex “best case” dynamic equilibria of strategies depicted below can remain in equilibrium, because the complexity (chaos) is too high to presume there isn’t some strategy which dissolves the equilibria—with the outcome most definitely being bankrupting all lesser strategies (i.e. centralized control) and/or losing consensus. The authors admit this possibility, [we believe we have only scratched the surface of what can go wrong in a transaction fee regime and:

Quote
Put another way, our results are only
made stronger by simplifying assumptions, because we are
claiming that weird and undesirable consequences arise even
if one is willing to grant simplifying assumptions.



If anything this paper is a strong argument against the big block folks and BCH as it shows their model of scaling is possibly not viable.

Incorrect as explained above. Yet another example of why you should not trust yourself to analyse anything about blockchain technology.

And you haven’t even scratched the surface in analysing how the SegWit “pay to anyone” loot and Mt. Box “garbage collection stalls” chain settlement egregiously negatively impacts the game theories thereof above, as the nChain blog article I linked to delves into slightly.

It’s quite telling how n00b you are in that you’re focused on the size of the blocks instead on the factors that really matter, as I alluded to in my posts in the thread about insecurity and incompatibility of SegWit.

You’re so lucky to have a former friend who is so astute on blockchain technology and who has patiently offered you so much information, but you’re so sure of yourself even though you have not invested 1/100th of the time and effort I have invested in this technological area.

In regards to your argument against small blocks you stated.

https://gist.github.com/shelby3/e0c36e24344efba2d1f0d650cd94f1c7
Quote

Given that the whales and miners are economically the same entity that can form an oligarchy to make the dolphins pay all the transaction fees for the whales’ transactions via miner profits. Regarding this math, the miner that pays to self (or whale who owns the transaction) the transaction fee for those transactions with much higher fees, is not displacing significant transaction fee revenue that would otherwise be earned by not doing so (due to block size being limited), because the whales’ transactions have a much higher multiple of fee per KB than the transactions of the dolphins.

I also do not see how it follows at least from the logic presented that miners and "whales" (how do you define whale in any meaningful way?) are economically the same entity.

I suggest you reread the relevant section of my Gist and also follow the links to the discussion that transpired on BCT with @Dorky.

You apparently failed to assimilate all that logic presented.

I see no reason why a wealthy individual would pay a much higher multiple of fee per KB unless the transaction was time sensitive. It would not be necessary and would amount to giving money to the miner for free.

Afaics, you’re not conceptualizing correctly. The whales in the Bitcoin ecosystem will be those that are conducting the most aggregated transactions for offchain stuff (not Lightning Network offchain but just for example the exchanges we have now), e.g. interexchange transfers between major exchanges.

And in general, whales are willing to pay a higher transaction fee than the dolphins because it’s peanuts compared to the value of the transaction.

So with limited block sizes the transaction fees being competitive are dominated by the whales. I have no idea why you wouldn’t understand this.

The whales are thus synonomous with the miners because they are paying all the revenue of the miners so they can mine it themselves or demand kickbacks from the miners. Either way, they’re economically the same entity because they pay themselves (other than the cost of the electricity which they can limit once they have the oligarchy in place which is the long-range plan of the Mossad)

You could try to argue that the whales will be numerous and unaligned thus they can’t coordinate sufficiently (i.e. if they each had their own miner, they would have to wait too long to pay themselves). Yet this is a dubious argument on the face of it assuming they can tolerate long delays between settlement, and additionally the game theory flaws outlined in the aforementioned research paper force them to coordinate to form an oligarchy.

I agree that the Core roadmap will lead to off chain transactions which will facilitate fractional reserve banking. FRB is a sociatial issue, however, it is the acceptance of a lie (the simultaneous granting of two claims that cannot be simultaneously honored in many circumstances yet are promised to be simultaneously honored) as acceptable and tolerated behavior. I highly doubt any form of cryptocurrency will eliminate FRB as society is not yet ready to embrace truth in this area.

But SegWit legitimizes these Mt. Box transactions as somehow bona fide because they in theory ultimately settle on the blockchain. But they do not really, which is what the nChain blog and my discussion with the author of Bitbay was pointing out.

It’s not just Mt. Box aspect but also the fact the uncoordinated settlement to the block chain could cause “garbage collection” spikes in transaction volume load and thus spikes in transaction fees, thus exacerbating the game theory flaws.

The link to the nChain blog and my Redditard discussion was in my earlier post in this thread.

I have seen no realistic threat that would lead to SEGWIT being rolled back and transactions being stolen. Should a group of miners attempt this it would be just another hard fork against consensus.

Incorrect. You’ve entirely failed to read my writings!

The SegWit transactions become a booty that can be spent by the mining cartel that does the chain reorganization. This is unlike normal Bitcoin transactions wherein the miner does not have the private key so can’t steal the funds.

Additionally since Bitmain et al have BTC they can purchase BCH with it, but hang on to those private keys for the BTC they spent. When they roll back the chain to August 4, then they can steal back all the BTC they paid for BCH, while also keeping all the BCH also.

Thus the huge difference is the chain rollback is financed and paid for in advance!

Cripes man. You do not even grok basic technological and economics facts and thus you should be more circumspect.

A hard fork based on a foundation of stealing will go no where. The miners could also create a hard fork giving them an extra 21 million bitcoin to make that fork viable, however, they need to convince everyone to go along with it.

No you misunderstand. Those who are using SegWit are using an illegal fork of Bitcoin and are giving away their BTC to which ever miners want to spend them. This is a flaw in SegWit. The miners will simply avail of the fools which follow Blockstream and do not understand that signing your BTC over to “pay to anyone” is damn foolish.

Bitcoin does not protect you from your own stupidity. It is designed to take capital away from the foolish and award it to the astute.

As for my theory of the miners stealing back BTC they used to pay for BCH, they’ll justify this as necessary to destroy the illegal fork of Bitcoin that lowered the security of Satoshi’s protocol. It is essentially a weapon against Blockstream which is a weapon against the security of Bitcoin.

The ability to steal SegWit is not the only security weakness of SegWit as I already explained. The game theory flaws will multiply. We’ve only scratched the surface.

That and the reasons above are why I sold all my BCH at 0.172. I will probably also sell my 2X if that forks off and am still on the fence about bitcoin gold. As of today I do not view these non consensus forks as having much if any long term value.

Please ignore me. I want to enjoy the lulz.

Please also ignore my expertise about ASIC resistance as it pertains to Bitcoin gold.




@CoinCube and I continued on in private, it’s possible I misinterpreted his tone, and I excerpt a portion of my reply:

Quote from: Hyperme.sh
It’s possible I have an error, but it is more likely for someone like @smooth or one of the Core devs to find it. Yet I tell you I debated Gregory Maxwell on Redditard a few months ago and afaics he was not winning.

There is no doubt that they have some very smart mathematicians and cryptographers.

But they also designed Side-chains which have turned out to be totally insecure.

I think what we should conclude is that it is very likely that who ever designed Bitcoin put very high IQ people (much smarter than anyone currently working on any blockchain) and many man-decades of work into analysis and planning.

It is not likely that Adam Back et al can so quickly design sound things. Also those guys are not well rounded enough. Their economics and game theory training is insufficient.

Decentralized ledgers require polymath expertise. I am not an expert in any one area but I am interested in all the areas. And I have had 4 years to learn and reflect. But I have probably have mistakes also.

I will give you one rule-of-thumb in software design. Avoid complexity. Complex designs are usually fraught with failure modes. So the complexity of SegWit and LN tells you immediately that they are flawed. BCH is a simple improvement and thus it is most certainly more viable.

We also got into the concept that the least contentious fork should win and I wrote:

Quote from: Hyperme.sh
I agree that contentious forks will fail, which is why I think SegWit has no chance of success. BCH is at least barely a fork. All they did was increase the block size (and they change the rate of difficulty adjustment but that was just necessary to cope with the fork war and in theory could be undone after the fork war is done).

Bitman backed off and let the illusion of community consensus to form, so I am nearly certain they did that for a strategic reason. And the best explanation I can find is they think SegWit is going to blow up in numerous possible ways. I expect they’re waiting for BTCSegWit to split into 3: SegWit, SegWit2x, and Gold, before they start their mining attacks. They probably want to divide-and-conquer as much as possible and build up a huge booty to steal back with a chain revert back to August 4.

But I am not even 80% sure of that. Who knows. We have to watch the outcome, but with BTCSegWit at $5000 and BCH at $300, I don’t stare a gift horse in the mouth. Perhaps we’ll see it go even further to $6000 and down to $200, or even $10000 and $100. An extreme overbought and oversold condition would be the perfect setup for the sort of mining attack I am contemplating.
btcney
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October 12, 2017, 05:37:31 AM
 #58

Hi guys,

Seems BCH is going down fast. Is this the moment were BCH is going to bleed death?
Will the downtrent turn or continue?

Please let me know what you think Wink

It's quite normal considering the fact that BCH and BTC usually has an inverse relationship.

The fact that bitcoin has went up so much over the past few days means that BCH will crash - since people who invest in bitcoin usually do not have an investment in BCH, and people that have an investment in BCH usually have very little investment in BTC.

In the long term i really see no value coming out of BCH but in the short term, there could be a price rebound.


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October 12, 2017, 06:58:43 AM
 #59

Is it because BTC is rising? I saw an article that says that BCH "I'm still going to rise in price because the mining efficiency is good." How is it?
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October 12, 2017, 07:00:30 AM
 #60

News Flash Investards: Everyone in crypto is here to profit.

How do they do that ? ..buy / dump.. cash out.

Congratulations you know how crypto works now.. happy "investing"  Cheesy
What more do you expect ?
XYZ coin was sooooo hyped that all the hoards of profiteer douche bags are going to HODL forever making *YOU* rich ?
Why would they ?
What ? Missed the pattern of jumping from coin to coin for profits ?
It's been that way for ALMOST A DECADE idiots  Cheesy

Do the same thing for roughly 8 bloody years then expect a different result ?
Ya.. you are brilliant little "investors" hahhahaha

Altcoins  Cheesy

FUD first & ask questions later™
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