No Money Exists Without the Majority

[Ukigo]

You get basically one shot at being THE digital currency. That window is rapidly closing, except to the extent that Bitcoin
has a fatal flaw that it requires 10 min delay before surety that a transaction won't be doubly-spent. That provides a window of opportunity for the moment. That window of opportunity will closed (taken) by the first currency to fix that. We will discuss that over in your Decrits thread.

Bitcoin has MANY flaws, not the one.
And only currency, which will address majority of them, will "overtake" and "eliminate" Bitcoin (and all it's "forks ).
Not the first "instant" coin as you said.

I guess, you'll have a lot of hard time
 with "marketing" all these theories
 of yours to the public
Whilst someone will do something, you trying to stop here with illogic.

[1446676727]

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[1446676727]

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[1446676727]

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[1446676727]

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[AnonyMint]

Bitcoin has MANY flaws, not the one.

Hey dolt, I was talking about mass market needs, not flaws that don't matter to the masses.

[Ukigo]

What ? Vicious circles is usual way for your logic ?
Fine Let it be so...

How can elitist and super-guru (like you) depend
 from desires and manias of unwashed masses,
which he is creating with his "marketing" ?

[AnonyMint]

Just sent this out for publishing on the internet. You should find it by searching the title "Asia Rising, West Declining" with Google within a day or so.

Asia Rising, West Declining

Asia will lead out of the coming global economic collapse because the Heritage Foundation data states the government spending as a percentage of the economy is significantly lower than in the West.

http://www.heritage.org/index/explore

Latin America's low government spending population is (sans Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, and Venezuela) only 320 million-- much smaller than Asia's.

Thus despite rampant oligarchy collusion with government (e.g. Chinese SOEs, Korean Chaebols), the Asian population is not addicted to government spending. This is critical because we have to consider the different ways societies can adjust to a debt and misallocation crisis.

Societies which have nearing retirement age bulges in their population pyramids and thus high levels of social spending, are not able to write-down the capital stock and reallocate it to more efficient users. Instead of quickly defaulting on the political owners (the lenders) and the synergistic political majority boomer parasites, such decaying societies must do austerity on the youth (see high youth unemployment in southern Europe) and confiscate (ZIRP and "bail-ins") from the savers. At the bottom, this failed direction rations the retirements. Armstrong's (and my) 78 year cycle model says the West bottoms 2033 which is 26 years after the decline began in 2007, i.e. a lost generation. Japan is the perennial example, with Europe and the U.S.A. following on cue. These vested interests (lenders and boomers) throw support to all draconian measures which can maintain this stasis. Some examples include the G20 starting to call for hunting down wealth globally, France imposing wealth taxes and capital controls, and the NSA saving all communications so as to know where all wealth is being hidden (terrorists know how to use encryption and Tor, most savers don't). Note Japan's lost generation is almost complete and is nearing the final capitulation and bottoming phase.

Whereas, societies which are not burdened by this vested interest addicted to government spending, can "throw the bums out" and default on the lenders, to get capital flowing again to the efficient private sector.

The developing world (sans China) is becoming short the dollar with dollar bond issues and loans flooding fixed capital speculation and misallocation, thus will have a liquidity crisis when the dollar strengthens as the wheels fall off of Europe first and export (goods and services) income caters. China also has huge debts and imbalances as documented by Michael Pettis et al. Yet what remains after this coming chaos, is Asia a place of relative freedom and the West burdened by politics of wealth redistribution and the police states with breakdown of rule of law that accompany such. Private capital and innovation will leave for where it won't be attacked. China censors the internet, yet the NSA saves everything. The former is transparent to the people and readily subverted by them, the latter is hidden from the people and implicitly supported by the politics of wealth redistribution.

[Ukigo]

Ahahaha !
That's nice AM, finally you proved that you are a moron !
I found about 7 cases of denial of facts in your previous post.
It's silly.

[AnonyMint]

I was challenged, and I rebutted as follows.

http://www.mpettis.com/2013/06/10/how-much-investment-is-optimal/#comment-23978

I am writing from the perspective of social capital & trajectory, since I am projecting the future.

When the rule of law is itself corrupted by the demands of boomers to maintain what can't be maintained, thus handing control of the government to the bankers who will never write-down the capital stock, then the rule of law is an illusion that is already rotten inside and waiting for the Minsky moment.

Whereas, China's people are becoming increasingly vocal about corruption and their actions are increasingly capitalistic. I was told by a Chinese recently that it is perfectly okay to criticize the government, just don't organize into groups when doing so. The only practical limit is to not challenge the actual authority by organizing. Whereas in the West, it is becoming increasingly politically incorrect to criticize the government. In the USA, there are even laws and Homeland security policies that characterize a person as a terrorist if they belong to certain ideologies.

China is liberalizing their financial door slowly, while the West is closing it, now with capital controls increasing.

Absolutely not, the Chinese criticize socialism and praise capitalism. Whereas, Westerners criticize capitalism (Obama!, ZIRP, bailins, etc) and embrace socialism.

I can't imagine how you could be so blind. Oh wait, yes I can. You are Westerner, so you believe this propaganda you've been fed about your social capital being superior to China.

No you've gotten it backwards. Not having welfare in place, means the free market and private capital is more free to invest and innovate. Two more phenomenal decades of this private enterprise will provide the funding for the social programs China needs 20 years from now.

Chinese readily subvert the censorship on the internet, using varied techniques such as misusing words so their meaning is obscured. A few VPNs of input, can be spread out by forum posts and word-of-mouth.

I didn't say China has better respect for privacy NOW, I said that their control is not opaque and the citizens are not living in a fantasy world believing they have privacy. Thus they've been having a dialogue about it, and are well along the way towards being ready to dismantled it when the Minsky moment comes. Whereas the West is in denial thinking they are good, but actually rotten to the core of their social capital needs. And when the Minsky moment comes, the West is going devolve into what it really is behind the curtain.

How much you want to bet that the USA public eventually forgets the recent NSA infocalypse, and the behind-the-curtain abuses increase? Whereas, the Chinese are not going to forget until they obtain the freedom to capitalize freely.

[AnonyMint]

I was challenged again and rebutted again. See link in prior post for link to discussion.

============

Andao, did you ignore that I specifically said I am looking for evidence not comparing what is NOW, but the trajectory of where we are going in the FUTURE?

My main point of evidence is that in the West we can act as if we are free and most believe they are, but we are being secretly recorded, as proved by the recent infocalypse revealed by Edward Snowden (with numerous others providing similar leaks since 2001).

Whereas in China, the people know very well they are not entirely free, and they know they are being blocked and recorded.

The other evidence I offered is the fact that the West can not have unsocialized debts defaultss without destroying the retirement of the majority of the voters. Whereas, China can. Thus the West can not move away from socialism, China can. Thus the West is lying to itself about moving towards socialism, and China is not lying about moving away from socialism.

The opposing trajectories over the past 3 decades are clear and accelerating. China has opened from 100% totalitarianism to 50+% capitalism. The West has slid from capitalism to socialism and fascism underneath, and only capitalism on the face. Does ZIRP, bail-ins, significant proportion on the population on government support, union control of Europe, etc. not sufficient evidence for you?

I am rushed now, if you want to rebut, I can try to compose a stronger counter argument next time.

[AnonyMint]

I was challenged again and rebutted again. See link in prior post for link to discussion.

Andao,

I have a moment to compose a hopefully more cogent rebuttal. This will continue on from the rebuttal I submitted a couple of hours ago.

I am wondering if you don't read carefully, or if I don't write coherently. For example, I wrote previously that Chinese are allowed to speak against the government, e.g. making a comment in a social network (if it is not censored) or at home, but they are not allowed to organize or become activists. Let me make it more clear. Chinese are allowed to express their personal opinion, but not allowed to form movements that threaten the power of the Communist Party (which I stated already in my prior comment to which you are replying).

In the West we are allowed to talk and organize politically, but this is pointless as the politics is already determined by the fact that the majority of voters are boomers and they will not tolerate a quick and sharp economic collapse the accompanies the defaults from write-down of the debt. But as Michael explained in an upthread comment about Japan, not writing-down the debt (i.e. not defaulting on the lenders) means a long-drawn out period of economic stagnation and decline (23 years thus far in Japan). Without a write-down, the capital stays locked up in interest payments and centralized amongst those who have proven they don't know how to allocate capital. Thus capital does not move to the most efficient, and thus the economy stagnates and declines.

I hope you understand that ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) causes capital to accumulate in the least risky sovereign bonds (e.g. USA, Germany) for safety, as well to speculation and emerging markets to seek yield. Thus ZIRP drives capital away from productive investment to bubbles. Precisely now we have huge dollar bond issues in developing countries funding a bubble in condos and fixed capital infrastructure. This means the developing world is short the dollar, as a Michael's past blog on globalization predicts, this capital inflow will reverse when the Minsky moment hits the West. In fact, you will see a huge rise in the dollar soon through 2016, as capital flees Europe (since Europe is moving rapidly towards capital controls and bail-in form of confiscation). Armstrong had predicted this and this is why we all (following Armstrong) had the knowledge to sell gold before the recent crash of gold.

This is a dead-cat bounce for the dollar and US real estate, being driven by capital in flows some of which is seeking a safe haven and then speculators seeing the trend and following it to chase yield.

Also potential home buyers in the USA are rushing to buy as interest rates rise (California house prices up +25% in past months), because the Fed sees the bubble forming and is talking about tapering down on QE. Armstrong predicted this too, so I was expecting it.

...this will be continued in the next comment...

...continuing from  prior comment...

Indeed the western media appeases the rage of the citizens with talk, but the action is all increasingly socialism. In my prior reply, I forgot to mention France already imposing capital controls and chasing away business with severe taxes and "do not fire" labor laws & regulations, and in the USA we have Obamacare which is destroying business. I already mention ZIRP which is a socialization of debt instead of a write-down of the lenders.

Whereas, China doesn't allow organization of dissent, and the reason is because the real economy is moving more and more capitalist and so there is no political vested interest that can hold up the Communist Party once the wildfire is lit. Thus they must prevent the spark, but the Minsky moment will provide that spark and then it will be dismantled rapidly. Whereas the West politically and economically can't reform because of the demographics can not allow it. Thus the West will devolve into a horrific outcome of wealth confiscation when the Minsky moment occurs (roughly circa 2016).

The privatization and discovery of information will spread very quickly in China after the Minsky moment because there is nothing stopping it other than the Chinese military. The people are young and will adapt quickly because in reality they are moving more to capitalism and back to their core values of Confucianism every day.

[AnonyMint]

Andao, finally got back to my desktop computer where I can type properly.

You cited the arrest of some activists in China and made the conclusion that this is not a "big improvement". How can you ignore the progress China has made on moving away from the totalitarianism of the cultural revolution, Great Leap forward, and the Tiananmen Square, to the widespread capitalism and freedom today? Of course, there are still some serious obstacles, but to argue there has been no big improvement is absurd.

Also that there exists activists who were emboldened by hope generated by the Premiere's policy statements, and that they were not immediately shot, is another indicator of how far China has come. China appears to be in the mode now of increasing tolerance, while maintaining suppression of a political spark that could send the whole thing spiraling out-of-control. I don't expect the leadership to succeed in a gradual transition from the remnants of communism to more free markets, because this last step (towards greater consumer share of the economy and foreign exchange freedom-of-capital for the middle class) requires removing the power of the 200 families that rule China. So unless there can be found a way for these 200 to continue to concentrate wealth and power, and open the economy more, then eventually there will be a Minsky moment, and another step forward in change similar to Tiananmen Square. Transitions occur in stages, as the economics and demographics overpower the stasis.

I think we need to consider the Asian culture of "face" when separating what the people on the street say when quoted, and what they actually do. Sure they play the "who you know" political favors game, because for now that is one of the primary means to do capitalism and succeed within the system which is still held back by the power of the Communist Party. But underlying this, the thoughts of the people are more Confucianist than Communist, and they want capitalism in their business activities. My perception is they want socialism to the extent that it creates a level playing field for eliminating evils of society. Since socialism does exactly the opposite due to the Olsen effect, then as the next economic crisis hits, they will grow more and more aware of their closer attachment to Confuscianism over a failed communist ideology which serves no purpose in their daily business lives as they strive to maximize wealth and security within their Confucianist core value system.

Their result will be different than the Europe or the USA to the extent their core culture is different (from Christianity, and the western culture of always moving forward man can improve upon nature versus Asian culture of cycles and repeating wisdom with nature in control).

The key point is that when the Minsky moment comes China won't have a majority of the population over 60 and unable to do anything but demand the government sequester wealth to sustain them. China will have a majority of the population in the 20 and 40 age brackets, thus able to roll up their sleeves and refocus energies on new markets after the fixed capital investment bubble has burst. And the rest of Asia is in proximity with the majority of the population in the working age 20s bracket.

Whereas the west is now burdened by the result of massive use of birth control and the bulge in births due to returning soldiers from World War 2, thus now not having sufficient youth to vote out the stasis of sequesting wealth from savers and transferring it to maintaining the increasing debt.

The freedom that westerners have is very fragile, because it only exists to the extent is does not conflict with the need of the boomers to sequester wealth to maintain their quality of life. In southern Europe, we see the youth unemployment is double the adults, as the boomers vote to sustain the debts and minimize effects on themselves.

[AnonyMint]

http://www.mpettis.com/2013/06/10/how-much-investment-is-optimal/#comment-24051

illumined,

It is very difficult to make the depositors whole, because this is a highly leveraged fractional reserve system (e.g. I've read the Spanish banks are leveraged 26-to-1), and worse yet there are all these up to a $quadrillion of sovereign bond interest rate derivatives gambling bets effectively used as reserves (since Tier 1 capital are sovereign bonds), thus leveraging the western financial system into the stratosphere.

We have to hit the reset button on the entire western financial system. There are two ways to do this. The slow way which allows increasing the debt and continuing to misallocate capital. Or the fast way of declaring everything 0, and recapitalizing a new system.

So far, Japan and the west have chosen the slow way of continuing interest payments and ZIRP to keep the derivatives whole, with Japan in a 23 year decline.  If the West continues down the slow way, it will be a global contagion. The west must continue down the slow way, because the boomers are too old to gain from a quick reset, they would not be competitive with Asia given a lack of youth in the west.

Asia will break away and do its own quicker reset once this global contagion takes down global exports. Japan is 3 years from the 26 year downturn bottom expected by the repeating 78 year cycle.

[AnonyMint]

http://www.mpettis.com/2013/06/10/how-much-investment-is-optimal/#comment-23978

Andao,

And of course you’re talking about a banking system which is entirely government run, and where property cannot be purchased, only leased. I’m not sure how you can get more socialist than that.

Ditto the western banking system in reality, and especially once all the derivatives and liabilities in the system are factored in and the system has reset to (as I postulated in reply to illumined downthread). Fractional reserve banking systems are inherently socialist over time until the financial system resets with write-downs.

Leasing property is not necessarily socialist. Private property rights in the west are somewhat of an illusion due to the false high valuations by pulling demand forward 30 years with debt, high insurance payments, rising property taxes as states are bankrupt. The western real estate has not bottomed. I expect the gold-to-house ratio to increase another order-of-magnitude!

What is the limit on taking USD out of the US vs RMB out of China? Obviously there is a huge difference when you are talking capital controls.

You cherry picked foreign exchange. Yet if we compare controls on exporters, I bet the USA is much more socialist with labor laws, export restrictions, and higher taxes.

As far as I know, there’s no such thing as a private hospital in China (unless you’re looking at plastic surgery/dental). I for one have never been to a private practice, nor have I ever seen one.

China may be trying to keep the national cost on health care low, so it has a more competitive economy for exporting. As it shifts to a consumer economy, the priority will shift to the advantage that allowing more spending on health care, enables greater security and consumer spending of savings.

What I am saying is that when global exports crater circa 2016, China will undergo a radical and rapid transformation. The pent up demand and capacity for this change is ready. Whereas, the west doesn't have any capacity to adapt after 2016.

You overemphasize lack of interest of the Chinese to research some obscure facts about history. The main priority of Chinese today is to earn money, so they can buy a house, car, and get married. On that front, they know they are not [entirely] free and are eager to gain more capitalism.

[AnonyMint]

As far as I know, economists widely have failed to emphasize the critical role derivatives are playing in keeping the west locked into ZIRP and bail-ins versus write-down of the lenders. Thus instead of a quick collapse and reset with ensuing quick recovery, as what occurred in Iceland or the USA after 1919, these derivatives have conflated the sovereign bonds with the lenders to real-estate, thus insuring any write-down would be apocalyptically spread on to retirement plans. The derivatives along with nearly retired boomer demographic bulge, are the main factors of social capital looking forward for the west.

Btw, bail-ins are socialist because the savers pay for the mistakes of the lenders and borrowers (and derivative gamblers), but this is inherent in fractional reserve banking.

Michael raised a very important concept by introducing social capital. Now let's get real about it. I wish I could read some prominent economists face the reality that the West can't escape with write-downs, and thus there won't be any break from Euro either (which I published a prediction on nearly 2 years ago). This will be a 26 year catastrophe. And it happens every 78 years in recorded history, at least since we emerged from the Roman Dark Age. Because demographics drives economics. Twenty-six years is how long it takes a human to become mature and ready to take over responsibility and become a major factor in the work force and start a family.

The west has to wait 26 years from 2007, when the boomers were 52, for them to die off at age 78. And for the generation born in 2007 to mature and be ready to compete with Asia in the robotic and automation revolution which will becoming a significant sector of the global economy by then (2033).

[AnonyMint]

I think one of the most important features for a better bitcoin alternative is the ability to realistically mine from general purpose computers. Two main reasons:

• help protect against a 51% attack by enabling humanity to leverage its preexisting idle computing power
• anonymity (not subject to id checks at money exchanges) since western governments must hunt down all wealth over time and confiscate it. Paul Rosenberg, the CEO of virtual private network provider Cryptohippie seems to agree. First they will do "bail-ins" for deposits over 100,000 probably with clawback against those who moved funds in anticipation, c.f. clawbacks in the MG Global default.

In addition to such a better alternative bitcoin perhaps coming on the horizon (perhaps created by myself), in the near-term until at least roughly 2015, US citizens may be able to keep under $10,000 in cash off the radar in a foreign account with a country that as of yet still has some bank secrecy. A GAO report explains why in 2015 the pressure from the US government will increase to force foreign banks (even those with bank secrecy laws) to report your account(s), although perhaps this has been delayed to 2017. Already for example, the US can obtain information on a specific account in most countries with bank secrecy, if they have a specific name or account number and a justified suspicion of tax avoidance.

I just learned today that the total amount of foreign accounts must not reach nor exceed $10,000 on any given statement period as follows.

http://www.nestmann.com/appeals-court-weakens-willfulness-defense-in-failure-to-file-foreign-account-reporting-forms/

Should you have any concerns if you have an account under $10,000

Bob, if the aggregate total of all offshore accounts never exceeds $10,000 in a given year, you don’t need to report the existence of the account(s) to the IRS or Treasury, although you still need to report and pay tax on any income generated.

http://www.onlinepokerfaq.com/guide/tax-fbar-90221.html

In addition to filing this form [Treasury form 90-22.1: Report of Foreign Bank and Financial Accounts] with the Treasury Department, you may need to declare the foreign accounts on your US tax return. The IRS instructions for Schedule B, line 7 say:

Check the "Yes" box on line 7a if either 1 or 2 next applies.

1. You own more than 50% of the stock in any corporation that owns one or more foreign bank accounts.

2. At any time during the year you had an interest in or signature or other authority over a financial account in a foreign country (such as a bank account, securities account, or other financial account).

The instructions go on to note an exception in the case of small accounts:

Exceptions. Check the "No" box if any of the following applies to you.

The combined value of the accounts was $10,000 or less during the whole year.

(Remember: This page gives you pointers to information that may help you understand US Treasury regulations and tax law. We do not give you legal or tax advice. It is up to you to understand the law and file the correct forms. If you need advice you must see a professional.)

The penalties for not filing the above are extreme, including possibly up to a $500,000 fine and 5 years in jail.

As for Europeans, France and the G8 are also getting organized to come after your wealth hiding overseas:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/26/us-iron-curtain-is-coming-in-new-immigration-bill-for-all-americans/
http://www.nestmann.com/homelanders-to-u-s-expatriates-dont-come-back-ever/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/18/g8-going-to-hunt-down-all-capital/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/18/icij-has-done-far-more-damage-to-the-world-economy-that-anyone-realized/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/15/united-stasi-of-america/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/15/precious-metals-remain-under-attack-by-governments/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/14/the-collapse-in-liquidity-rising-volatility/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/13/german-high-court-introducing-more-euro-chaos/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/12/city-dwellers-at-greatest-risk/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/12/snowdens-rude-awakening-usa-does-control-most-of-the-world/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/12/greesce-shuts-down-tv-new/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/11/capitalism-or-marxism-that-is-the-question/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/11/mailing-cash-is-prohibited-in-usa-france-bars-even-gold/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/11/congress-wants-snowdens-head-not-the-nsa/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/11/the-future-of-the-world-economy-les-miserables/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/11/paranoid-or-conservative/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/10/capitol-hill/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/10/france-declares-victory-over-entire-eurozone-crisis/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/09/nsa-surveillance/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/08/why-the-survelience-is-very-dangerous/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/08/political-trivia-test-can-you-pass-it/ (Hillary Clinton's plans for confiscation)
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/07/unemployment-benefits-cut-part-of-deflation/ (the official rate will go to 25-30%, real rate much higher perhaps)
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/06/imf-admits-it-made-a-mistake-with-greece/ (Only Julius Caesar understood how to fix a debt crisis)
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/06/nsa-tapping-into-internet-directly/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/06/is-paranoid-becoming-normal/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/05/this-no-time-to-quit-a-job-us-youth-unemployment-hits-16-2/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/04/search-warrants-not-necessary-to-take-you-dna/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/04/the-growing-shadow-economy-politicians-just-dont-get-it/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/04/1984-is-here-2014/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/03/seniors-are-the-greediest-generation/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/02/rising-tide-of-civil-unrest/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/02/the-real-conspiracy/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/01/11999/ (Primary Dealers – the Truth About Their Iron Grip)
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/05/31/freedom-to-travel-in-europe-shutting-down/
http://www.nestmann.com/cell-tracking/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/05/15/europe-plans-the-confiscation-of-depositor-assets/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/04/19/germany-wants-global-taxation-cooperation/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/04/19/the-pension-crisis-interest-rate-nightmare/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/04/19/inflation-v-deflation/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/04/18/europe-considering-mandatory-15-of-wages-to-be-taken-for-pensions/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/04/17/the-next-seizure-coming-u-s-consumer-financial-protection-bureau/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/04/17/will-pension-funds-be-the-target-after-2016-to-seize-for-our-protection/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/04/16/europe-to-begin-capital-controls-soon/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/04/13/france-is-pushing-for-tax-evasion-to-be-top-eu-priority-hitler-returns/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/04/12/government-pensions-will-cost-2500-per-household-climbing/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/03/29/cyprus-confiscation-of-assets-is-global-plan/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/03/28/electronic-money/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/03/27/are-we-head-to-a-mad-max-scenario/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/03/25/sovereign-debt-crisis-conference-2/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/02/26/visit-italy-they-seize-your-jewelry/ ("Diego Maradona, the Argentine soccer star...")
http://www.nestmann.com/yes-you-are-a-criminalyou-just-dont-know-it-yet-2/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarceration_rate (USA an order-of-magnitude higher)
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4934&cpage=1#comment-400351 (suburbs as peaceful as Switzerland, Americans are culturally less law abiding & some violent big cities)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conviction_rate (with 93% conviction rate from US Dept or Justice, 99%  in NY Fed courts according to Armstrong)
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4927&cpage=1#comment-399831 (Why should it happen to Denmark?)
http://www.nestmann.com/passport-denials-long-a-feature-of-u-s-foreign-policy/
http://www.nestmann.com/hungary-now-imposes-tax-on-non-resident-citizens/


So what should one do after 2015 (or 2017 perhaps) and with more than $10,000 in savings?A better bitcoin? I warned about this situation 3 years ago and that gold will not be a solution (note I no longer think a stampede into gold will cause hyper-inflation, because the world's wealth will never make it into gold, rather we are headed for deflation with confiscations yet gold will go very high due to being a place where wealthy attempt to store wealth from confiscation).

Disclaimer: I am not giving tax nor financial advice in any my posts. I am merely relaying some thoughts I have had, thus readers should consult their own professional advisers and attorneys.

[AnonyMint]

Armstrong has been correct so far, so bottom should be in first week of July at $1150 and $17.

We will then rally later in the year, as gold rises in the Euro significantly as turmoil around the German elections. Ditto Yen and probably emerging market currencies too. The Australian dollar looks like it is ready to capitulate.

But then the dollar will rally very strongly and gold may dip in dollars while not in Euros.

Thus gold & silver will not move strongly up in dollars until after 2015.

Silver could possibly move even lower than $17 in 2014/5 as the emerging markets start to slow down due to Europe.

I think Japan will crash hard in 2014/5, then bottom in 2016.

What we lose for silver industrial demand to consumers, might be recovered not only in investment demand but if we go to war after 2014. Probably more importantly Asia will bottom before the West does and then their demand will pick up again.

http://www.mpettis.com/2013/05/21/excess-german-savings-not-thrift-caused-the-european-crisis/#comment-23486

================
The global sovereign debt crisis will ultimately be resolved with a stable global (or first several regional, e.g. NAU dollar, Euro, Yuan as the Asia Union and/or BRIC currency) currency (ies) against which all other national currencies float. This will enable nation-states the flexibility to exist with differences, while providing a stable fulcrum for reserves, international store-of-value, and international trade and FX.

Europeans want the advantages of integration (e.g. travel freedom, market economies-of-scale, control of conflicts between states, etc) without the costs (e.g. uniform debt-to-GDP ratios, uniform productivity, uniform culture, etc), thus they tried to create a Euro which had the advantages without the costs, and it has failed miserably as predicted by Margaret Thatcher and others..

Now the politics is shifting towards disillusionment, and this is likely to explode to the forefront with the German elections in the fall, especially now that the Germany economy is shrinking.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/27/merkel-becoming-euro-skeptic/
(summary which links to spiegel.de story that also contains the following comment)

3. European Unification
chris@drakemarine.co.uk 06/25/2013
Frau Merkel, as usual, has accurately taken the pulse of her electorate. There has never been an appetite amongst the electorate of any country for full integration and all that it means : central control from Brussels, loss of sovereignity etc. The problem has been that the Eurocrats have a long history of ignoring the wishes of the people and it was always going to turn round and bite them. The Euro was a half hearted project because the Brussels elite thought they could bring is full integration step by step. This policy has failed spectacularly and there is no chance of achieving sufficient unification or the necessary transfer of resources to enable every country to stay in the Euro. Britain is the one country where this was evident years ago and we are well ahead of the game. Where we lead, others will follow. To her credit, Frau Merkel is a pragmatist. She needs to do everything she can to keep Britain on board to counter the protectionist and socialist tendencies, particularly in France. Looser ties between member states are necessary to gain the support of the electorate all over the EU and in particular the UK. Without Britain, the ultimate goal of establishing the EU as the centre of a worldwide free trading block will be a battle Germany can’t win. Mrs Merkel is simply positioning her country for the battle to come. I believe it will be very difficult to drive through a deal Britain can live with.

[Ukigo]

HaHa ! Talk more to yourself,pleaaase !
So you can influence world finance ! LoL

PS. mistakes are still in place...good omen !

[AnonyMint]

Click the link to read it in context of a discussion.

THIS WILL BE THE MOST IMPORTANT EMAIL YOU READ.

http://blog.jim.com/culture/radish-explains-what-racism-means.html/comment-page-1#comment-343342

You have provided no counter example. No empire has ever collapsed with hyperinflation. As you admit, Rome survived the inflationary crisis and only collapsed with deflation when the people abandoned the currency and the city too. Hyperinflation is where a country can't sell its bonds and pays its bills by printing money. The key difference is that in hyperinflation you can get more fiat for your gold. In deflation, you get less fiat, or you don't want the fiat because no one will accept it anymore at any valuation. Deflation is the state vs. the people madmax scenario, hyperinflation is running on a treadmill where people lose confidence but the government is not attacking the people, rather just printing money to fund its operations in an exponential spiral. You will pray for hyperinflation, when you see what is coming to us. You don't understand that Rome had a two-tier money system, and the people abandoned their land and the currency, because of the onerous taxes that had to be paid in the first tier currency that wasn't debased!! The G20 is going to hunt everyone down and tax them to death. You can't argue with Martin Armstrong, he has spent $millions on researching the history of world. He spent $10 million just to create a chart of the silver price during the Roman era, by collecting every silver coin from the era. He had researchers compile information from the media archives in London and else where. Read How Empires Die.

Note the empire rotates around the world from Europe to America to Asia. USA is peaking and Asia is next up. Britian handed it to USA, but we had our 1929 at the handoff, and China will have its 1929 in 2016.

China wasn't an empire when they hyperinflated, they were an isolated Yuan Dynasty in middle ages or the socialist failure of the Republic of China in the 1940s.

[digitalindustry]

"Money and socialism are intertwined and this will never change. To survive the near total wipeout of fungible money in a Mad Max Dark Age, store production in non-fungible knowledge or technologies that continue to generate revenue during or at least after the crisis."


Markets and "money" and "socialism" are intertwined.

I expect you mean, Markets are the most social natural human aspect , as humans are social naturally, all "money" is , is the shiney little tokens in which we can base "faith".

I designed a transnational  E-democracy pyramid structure policy , its very very simple .

it simply works like protocols:

At the "Top" of the pyramid you may say Government owns essential hardware and infrastructure, you can guess as to which types.

then they let the market "compete" on top of these essential structures this can be called the "Transitional directed free market"

then on each level down there is less and less government ,requiring less and less tax,  until you get the small and micro business , which are/should be essentially the freest markets.

now picture , lines or many fibers holding the pyramid together if you like , these lines run from bottom to top and every which way in-between, these lines are the essential feedback mechanisms to and from the "top" and "bottom" and all levels in-between of the Pyramid .

A feed back mechanism is simply something like, this forum.  <there are many detail I'm not going to bore you with<

but the key is to connect the essential parts of each platform of the Pyramid , so in that example , for example say.. regional governments and local and business centers Police of course, these are all feedback connected, the key is to the base.

The Russian Federation is a Key nation that has taken on a similar concept {all-be it coincidental} , although you would never hear about it , revolutionary things are happening, because they have no stake in a pure top down system., its almost like the revolution was a blessing and a victory , although it wouldn't be seen as such.

in a structure like this censorship is a kind of attack and unneeded censorship is an outright attack on the system and should be viewed seriously and as such.

[AnonyMint]

You hide my very important post with a gibberish post. Readers please see my immediately prior post.

[Lauda]

Cool story bro.

This.
Stopped reading at the word "No". 

[digitalindustry]

You hide my very important post with a gibberish post. Readers please see my immediately prior post.

I guess it's only "gibberish" because you simply can't understand it yes?

you write a long simplistic diatribe full of "common economic" and "socialism" then point at "actual social economics" as gibberish ?

my advice,  stop getting excited about the fact that you think you understand the difference between deflation and inflation .

you have a very dim view of the future - its a future of "no price" , this is not revolutionary , many people see a deflationary spiral typically when this occurs people are dying and the military are on the street .

my own view is that long before it gets exactly that bad , most "western" nations that have direct exchange swaps, will simply walk away from the principal system without too much of a drama.

i'm sure there will some and/or many localized disruptions, but guess what? the market will still be there , and it will still be working.  



** my suggestion for you , invest hard into "Cap currency" "although they seem to keep "forking it" literally.