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Author Topic: Without Technical Investment Strategies, one must use Fundamental, correct?  (Read 933 times)
Veldy
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June 26, 2011, 05:02:45 AM
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Clearly, with such low trade volume compared to historic, technical analysis of the market is useless.  As is clearly agreed by the most known bitcoin analyst.

http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/category/technical-analysis/

The trading that is occurring, then, I am curious, what is it based on?  Fundamentals?  I am curious to know what investors believe that the fundamentals are.  I would love to see a fundamental analysis.  Granted, bitcoin is unlike traditional exchanged equities, so it must be considered in that perspective.  That perspective is what I am interested in understanding.  I think many others might be curious as well?

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June 26, 2011, 05:07:40 AM
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1.  Technical analysis (of anything) is considered by many to be hokus pokus.

2.  The fundamentals here are complex and some even unknown as of yet.

Clearly, with such low trade volume compared to historic, technical analysis of the market is useless.  As is clearly agreed by the most known bitcoin analyst.

http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/category/technical-analysis/

The trading that is occurring, then, I am curious, what is it based on?  Fundamentals?  I am curious to know what investors believe that the fundamentals are.  I would love to see a fundamental analysis.  Granted, bitcoin is unlike traditional exchanged equities, so it must be considered in that perspective.  That perspective is what I am interested in understanding.  I think many others might be curious as well?

"... and the geeks shall inherit the earth."
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June 26, 2011, 05:08:09 AM
 #3

It's a new market baby, the only rule is we're making it up as we go.

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June 26, 2011, 05:17:56 AM
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To actually answer your question, the market is one of sellers who have bitcoins and are willing to jump through the hoops to trade them for cash now that their value has gone up, selling into a wave of new money mostly from people like me who have been alerted by the recent parabolic move, and are fascinated with the fundamentals story with all its inherent features, not even to speak of the societal implications and how this fits in with the changes to world financial systems.

Bitcoins make good money, and that's especially obvious in the face of how bad "real" money is behaving these days (declining continually in value, so is a very poor store of value).  The greatest hurdle the currency has is one of adoption, but I think the fact that we're here now talking about it with a community of approx. 100,000 users says the hardest part is past - Now we just have to defeat the propaganda about how bitcoin is the currencies of criminals.   That's around the corner just you wait.

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June 26, 2011, 05:25:23 AM
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Relying on Technical Analysis depends on one's belief about wheter there exists true chaos in the world  Grin
The current price of Bitcoin is driven by emotion and greed. There are no fundamentals  Grin
 
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June 26, 2011, 05:29:06 AM
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I beg of you to prove me wrong on my second statement above Smiley
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June 26, 2011, 06:35:56 AM
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Bitcoins are inherently finite, with a set timeframe for market maturation, they are also inherently deflationary at some point in the not too distant future, which means it's better to be in them sooner than later.  Those are fundamental realities about the currency.

But the fundamentals I was talking about were actually those of the USD, which if you're familiar with them resemble most closely a boat with a gaping hole in it being compared to a fleet of smaller vessels that have equally large holes.   People are looking for a way to protect their purchasing power (and hoping to speculate on the side and maybe get a little ahead), so value flows out of fiat currencies and into alternative investments.   Bitcoin is going up for the same fundamental reason that silver, corn, pork, coffee, you name it.  And we're just getting started Smiley

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June 26, 2011, 06:42:44 AM
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Bitcoins are inherently finite, with a set timeframe for market maturation, they are also inherently deflationary at some point in the not too distant future, which means it's better to be in them sooner than later.  Those are fundamental realities about the currency.

I'd add to that list of fundamental that bitcoin has low transaction costs, can provide anonymity with certain measures, is decentralized, and disallows charge backs.

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June 26, 2011, 06:50:57 AM
 #9

Yeah, don't underestimate the low transaction cost - Thanks to the person-to-person nature of BTC, we're probably going to be able to fund the majority of our show BitTalk by soliciting voluntary donations of .02BTC per episode from listeners who think the podcast is worth supporting.  By making fees voluntary, you open up this type of funding model where any individual person contributes an insubstantial amount but it adds up quickly for the cause.  This sort of funding model lets a show like ours stay pretty much entirely independent from sponsorship from anyone in the community we might want to ask "tough" questions of, and so lets us work to help keep the community informed on what might otherwise not be asked (that's my big problem with the other shows out there, all their guests are also show sponsors and it shows)


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June 27, 2011, 04:44:33 AM
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We're not yet there with regard to anonimity, but you both made good points  Smiley
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June 27, 2011, 02:59:20 PM
 #11

the chart technology is based on the psychology of the mass - greed against fear, so you can evolve a few structures of the chart who predict the future with a higher probability. 
there are still many traders who hav never traded before, what makes the chart technology more trustable and the course much more instable.

it's clear to see, that the media has a great influence...


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