Long term down trend?

[Mahn]

Am I the only one seeing this?

[worldinacoin]

That's not long term , that's only a ripple

[Mahn]

Seems to correlate well with Google Trends as well. (link)

[notme]

Seems to correlate well with Google Trends as well. (link)

[Dayne]

Those who bought above 200$ need to panic and surrender by selling whatever they have left to those who sold in 80-90 range. Then we can start moving up again.

This.

[linuxer]

That's not long term , that's only a ripple

Agree with you.

Long term  = 1-2 Year atleast

[mgio]

Two weeks is not long term.

[ashaw596]

Yeah, thats not that much of an decrease. I think part of its driven by asic companies starting to cash out more.

[BTCThousandaire]

This is just what I was waiting for, one more major down move completing the abcde triangle. Now we can move up from here.

[freedomno1]

http://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin#q=bitcoin&cmpt=q

So it was mentioned
Think this == Stability downwards nearer that bottom
Next time you start seeing a spike

Probably will see a rally!

[BitPirate]

Seems to correlate well with Google Trends as well. (link)

This again ... :-)

Was the price pushed up to 200+ because people were searching in Google? Or did people search in Google because of the 100% week-on-week appreciation?

Yeah, there's correlation. But it's not a predictive correlation.

[Kupsi]

Seems to correlate well with Google Trends as well. (link)

People still want to buy. I don't think it looks bad at all. Link

[Saint!]

Personally I think its due to the now almost media black out on Bitcoins.

There's no necessarily bad news but there aint no good news either. Kinda get the feeling one big story could throw it either way.

What your seeing is people with shaky hands selling off the moment they see any slightly downward trend.

[freedomno1]

Personally I think its due to the now almost media black out on Bitcoins.

There's no necessarily bad news but there aint no good news either. Kinda get the feeling one big story could throw it either way.

What your seeing is people with shaky hands selling off the moment they see any slightly downward trend.

I agree although I'm waiting for that attention line to bottom out before saying that it hits the price bottom as well
Ah google chart's a way to measure attention spans
That said
Disclosure
Steadily buying here

[johnyj]

Google chart showed it's still very new and mostly price is affected by new adopters. If you search the trend for gold/silver, the price and trend has no direct relationship

[freedomno1]

Google chart showed it's still very new and mostly price is affected by new adopters. If you search the trend for gold/silver, the price and trend has no direct relationship

True but it does seem to correlate with bitcoin to an extent at the moment likely because it is new information while gold and silver are well known

[ElectricMucus]

Google chart showed it's still very new and mostly price is affected by new adopters. If you search the trend for gold/silver, the price and trend has no direct relationship

True but it does seem to correlate with bitcoin to an extent at the moment likely because it is new information while gold and silver are well known

That's because Gold/Silver aren't about investing per se, but pretty common terms.
If you look for "Bullion" that paints a whole different picture.

[hgmichna]

Am I the only one seeing this?

No. It has been predicted end of March/beginning of April already, i.e. before the bubble burst. The approximate prediction was that, after the bursting of the bubble, we would see a sequence of bull traps in a gradual decline that will last between half a year and two years.

The price actually behaves similarly to the 2011 bubble.

There is not much supporting bitcoin, only speculators. When they see the price fall, they will begin to sell to save whatever value they have.

The really interesting question is, how low will it go? My old prediction was $20, but I won't be surprised if I see single digits. I'm still sticking to that prediction. The bitcoin value used to pay for goods and services determines the base price below which bitcoin cannot fall. Unless, of course, the real traders also lose trust in bitcoin.

Anyway, that base price is very much lower than today's price. You cannot support a high price solely on the speculation that the price will be high, because sooner or later somebody will shout that the emperor wears no clothes. You have to have something more real underneath, and that can only be the use of bitcoin to pay for goods and services.

[ShroomsKit]

Am I the only one seeing this?

No. It has been predicted end of March/beginning of April already, i.e. before the bubble burst. The approximate prediction was that, after the bursting of the bubble, we would see a sequence of bull traps in a gradual decline that will last between half a year and two years.

The price actually behaves similarly to the 2011 bubble.

There is not much supporting bitcoin, only speculators. When they see the price fall, they will begin to sell to save whatever value they have.

The really interesting question is, how low will it go? My old prediction was $20, but I won't be surprised if I see single digits. I'm still sticking to that prediction. The bitcoin value used to pay for goods and services determines the base price below which bitcoin cannot fall. Unless, of course, the real traders also lose trust in bitcoin.

Anyway, that base price is very much lower than today's price. You cannot support a high price solely on the speculation that the price will be high, because sooner or later somebody will shout that the emperor wears no clothes. You have to have something more real underneath, and that can only be the use of bitcoin to pay for goods and services.

I find it hard to believe you missed the part where craploads of companies are accepting Bitcoins and that it is growing every day. 

[Frozenlock]

I find it hard to believe you missed the part where craploads of companies are accepting Bitcoins and that it is growing every day. 

I find it hard to believe you missed the part where you are supposed to explain how this would prevent the price from falling.

[freedomno1]

I find it hard to believe you missed the part where craploads of companies are accepting Bitcoins and that it is growing every day. 

I find it hard to believe you missed the part where you are supposed to explain how this would prevent the price from falling.

Price will fall correlated to interest in bitcoin however the next time its in the spotlight development will probably cause a stronger base making it harder to fall again to another low point. Good time to start building up total bitcoins not so much for worrying about exchange rates
Core support levels are rising as price levels are dropping at least that's my theory

[dipsy]

Gox have had some funding options cut off, which means less liquidity on the buy side. The fact that more ASICs are coming online means there are more blocks than usual right now, which means more new coins are probably being cashed out. More new coins + less fiat getting to Gox = lower priced coins.

Despite Gox's issues, there are now a number of funded startups (Coinbase, BitPay, Bitinstant, Coinlab, Coinsetter, Open Coin..) who should be able to create a more stable & professional base for the ecosystem to kick on from.

Now is a great time to be building stuff and/or buying coins before we see the next push.

[Luckybit]

Am I the only one seeing this?

YES!
I hope it goes down to around 50 so I can stock up.

[Luckybit]

Gox have had some funding options cut off, which means less liquidity on the buy side. The fact that more ASICs are coming online means there are more blocks than usual right now, which means more new coins are probably being cashed out. More new coins + less fiat getting to Gox = lower priced coins.

Despite Gox's issues, there are now a number of funded startups (Coinbase, BitPay, Bitinstant, Coinlab, Coinsetter, Open Coin..) who should be able to create a more stable & professional base for the ecosystem to kick on from.

Now is a great time to be building stuff and/or buying coins before we see the next push.

I agree stock up, build, invest.

[Zaih]

Time to stock up on cheap coins 

[Maged]

I find it hard to believe you missed the part where craploads of companies are accepting Bitcoins and that it is growing every day. 

I find it hard to believe that this same quote keeps being used after every crash. Yes, people were saying this in 2011 before we fell below $10.

[newmars]

now below 100 

[BitMay]

Almost reached 90$  .

[dandannn]

Gox have had some funding options cut off, which means less liquidity on the buy side. The fact that more ASICs are coming online means there are more blocks than usual right now, which means more new coins are probably being cashed out. More new coins + less fiat getting to Gox = lower priced coins.

Despite Gox's issues, there are now a number of funded startups (Coinbase, BitPay, Bitinstant, Coinlab, Coinsetter, Open Coin..) who should be able to create a more stable & professional base for the ecosystem to kick on from.

Now is a great time to be building stuff and/or buying coins before we see the next push.

I agree stock up, build, invest.

What makes you so sure the price will eventually go up again? Realistically it could drop below $10 and stay there...

Of corse I don't want this to happen though!

[Cluster2k]

Factors (IMHO) pushing bitcoin down:

- MtGox requiring all currency withdrawls to have ID.  I've made several without any ID at all with MtGox, but from May 30 photo and address ID is required.  Scares some people away.

- Liberty Reserve.  Most articles stating the alleged criminal nature of LR also put bitcoin into the same article.  Some people may associate bitcoin and crime.  Not good at all for attracting people who want to use bitcoins for legal transfers.  Users who got burnt with funds stuck in LR are unlikely to rush into another structure like bitcoin, unless they have no other options (drug purchases, child porn purchases, etc).


Factors (IMHO) not pushing bitcoin down:

- BFL shipping product to end users, with those users cashing out bitcoins into money to recoup their purchase costs.  It's too early in the shipping cycle, the vast majority of BFL customers haven't got their units yet, and if BFL miners decide to sell whatever they generate we would be heading down to single digits pretty damn quick in the next few months.

[N12]

I find it hard to believe you missed the part where craploads of companies are accepting Bitcoins and that it is growing every day. 

I find it hard to believe that this same quote keeps being used after every crash. Yes, people were saying this in 2011 before we fell below $10.

Right. Bitcoin can grow behind the scenes and the market can still go down despite it. It happened before, it can happen again.

[lophie]

The fact that more ASICs are coming online means there are more blocks than usual right now

Bitcoin 001: Block generation time might be affected a little "technically". But generally no. That does not mean more blocks and more coins.

[dipsy]

The fact that more ASICs are coming online means there are more blocks than usual right now

Bitcoin 001: Block generation time might be affected a little "technically". But generally no. That does not mean more blocks and more coins.

Average block time is falling during every period of recent new difficulty. Just before the last jump in difficulty, average block time was down to around 6.5 minutes; doesn't this mean more blocks & therefore more coins?

Obviously the network adjusts so blocks should be every 10 mins, but new ASICs keep shortening that time at the moment.

[hgmichna]

I find it hard to believe you missed the part where craploads of companies are accepting Bitcoins and that it is growing every day.

I am not missing it. It is one of the most noteworthy things right now.

But the question is not how many people offer bitcoin payment. The question is how many bitcoins are actually moved, and the answer to that is, not many.

Remember, the rally and bubble started at $3. Now I estimate a base price of $20, which is a more than sixfold rise already. Moreover, it is quite possible that the starting price of $3 a year ago was already high, because the first, 2011, bubble was not fully deflated when the second bubble already began. A fair base price then might well have been $2.

Anyway, let's carry on. Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.

[N12]

But the question is not how many people offer bitcoin payment. The question is how many bitcoins are actually moved, and the answer to that is, not many.

Humble Bundle confirms:

The Humble Double Fine Bundle was actually our first bundle to support it, which came out last month. It represents less than .1% of our sales for Humble Indie Bundle 8

[lophie]

The Humble Double Fine Bundle was actually our first bundle to support it, which came out last month. It represents less than .1% of our sales for Humble Indie Bundle 8

Comeon guys I got them both for BTC and paid above average spend some for charity and get games in the same time..... I thought it would be something like.

"We were surprised of how many people actually chosen to pay with Bitcoin. It was higher than expeted"

[tokeweed]

That's not long term , that's only a ripple

just a ripple indeed. it could be 2011 all over again.  

[coco23]

According to this chart we're now in August (as the high was 2 months earlier) and will see the low in September at around $25-50

[Seal]

Yep, we're definitely seeing a lot of traders go short. The current sentiment and the popular TA trading signals (moving average crossovers, MacD) are also showing a downward trend.

Protect your positions. I hope you're all protected against a drop, if not to speculate then at least to hedge.

[Jozzaboy]

That's not long term , that's only a ripple

just a ripple indeed. it could be 2011 all over again.  

Eh, who cares. If I hold for a year, i'm almost guaranteed a profit without a bubble. If there is a bubble, well, I just multiplied my capital. Works for me either way.

If it crashes to 0, I might plop a couple grand on it and wait for inevitable financial collapse, the rebirth of Bitcoin.

[Mahn]

One week later:

[Jozzaboy]

One week later:

My fiat is ready

[notme]

One week later:

My fiat is ready

I wouldn't recommend trying to catch the bottom.  Dollar cost averaging is a great way to redeploy investment capital.

[hgmichna]

I wouldn't recommend trying to catch the bottom.  Dollar cost averaging is a great way to redeploy investment capital.

Writing something that nobody understands can mean two things. The author is either a genius or a complete idiot.

[ElectricMucus]

Too many people try to not catch the bottom in contrast to not trying to catch it.

If that it too complicated: If you happen to catch it, why not?

[mootinator]

I wouldn't recommend trying to catch the bottom.  Dollar cost averaging is a great way to redeploy investment capital.

Writing something that nobody understands can mean two things. The author is either a genius or a complete idiot.

Nobody understands that? Please tell me more about how you speak for everyone.

Dumping equal amounts of money into a falling market at regular intervals is a much better strategy than going all in where you think the bottom is.

[Peter Lambert]

bitcoins are inflating at over 10% per year, USD is only doing a couple percent inflation, so naturally the price of bitcoins measured in USD will go down over time.

[Frozenlock]

Dumping equal amounts of money into a falling market at regular intervals is a much better strategy than going all in where you think the bottom is.

How so?

Seems to me you are just diminishing the risks, along with potential profits.

[mootinator]

Dumping equal amounts of money into a falling market at regular intervals is a much better strategy than going all in where you think the bottom is.

How so?

Seems to me you are just diminishing the risks, along with potential profits.

You're more likely to not hit the bottom than you are to hit the bottom.

Compare two scenarios:
Dump $10,000 in at $50 because I think that's going to be the bottom so now I have 200BTC.

Dump $2,000 in at $50 = 40BTC
Dump $2,000 in at $40 = 50BTC
Dump $2,000 in at $10 = 200BTC
Dump $2,000 in at $100 = 20BTC
Dump $2,000 in at $120 = 16.67BTC
Total: 326.67BTC

From experience, if you're waiting for a buying opportunity the second scenario is more likely than predicting the bottom correctly. It's exceptionally hard to predict how low something you're bullish on (that happens to be falling) will actually go. Trying to catch the bottom is more akin to gambling.

[Frozenlock]

Like I said, you are just trading potential profits for risk management.

Nothing wrong with that, but that's not a "superior" method either.

[BitcoinAshley]

bitcoins are inflating at over 10% per year, USD is only doing a couple percent inflation, so naturally the price of bitcoins measured in USD will go down over time.

1) According to official inflation figures, USD is only a couple percent inflation YoY. However, we all know the controversy surrounding how those figures are calculated. For the vast majority of people, food and energy prices (despite short-term volatility) have been increasing long-term at a rate far greater than the inflation rate suggested by the official index. I shouldn't have to explain this, this is pretty basic stuff. Look into how these indexes are calculated and what they actually mean for real people before you go citing them as if they are monetary gospel.

2) While actual price inflation isn't significant, the money supply is inflating at an unprecedented rate. If you don't think this will EVER affect price inflation, you are living in a dream world. Right now it's being safely tucked away in places like reserve banks, capital accounts, the S&P, and the derivatives market (many quadrillions of electronic dollars that we affectionally refer to as FRNcoin (federal reserve note coin.)

Therefore, it is unlikely that the price of bitcoins will go down in the long-term in the manner you describe, provided that either of two conditions are met: Adoption continues to increase, and/or the USD price inflation index (as flawed as it is) catches up to the astounding increase in money supply. The degrees required of each are dependent on the other, of course.

Just thought I'd clear that up in case anyone was under the impression you know what you were talking about  It's just not quite as cut-and-dry as you make it out to be, unless you are a Keynesian weenie who swallows all the official statistics along with a cup of Krugman's semen.

[tokeweed]

That's not long term , that's only a ripple

just a ripple indeed. it could be 2011 all over again.  

what do you guys think right now?  it could be, right?

[painlord2k]

It can not be 2011 all over again, because in 2011 the total exponential grow was much faster than now.



BTC in 2011 had an internal inflation ranging from 100% to 50% (01/01/2011 against 31/12/2011) so it was a lousy store of value compared to the US$ and its 20% inflation (courtesy of the Fed.)
Inflation is defined as increase of the total supply of currency.

The real inflation, all considered was probably more than this, because a large quantity of BTC are kept out of the market and never touched (Satoshi stash and other early adopters, I suppose).
Now, inflation of the bitcoin supply is a lot lower (8 time lower) and it is under the US$ inflation. SO people have a good reason to convert their US$ in BTC and keep them in that form and only convert them in $ when they must use US$.

Other countries with a local currency managed worse than the Fed do with the US$ are converting to Bitcoin faster just because they are hard pressed to use their currency to buy anything else not losing value so fast. This is the reason Argentina is seeing a lot of adoption and the reason a lot of countries like Kenya are perfect candidate for mass adoption.

[ElectricMucus]

It can not be 2011 all over again, because in 2011 the total exponential grow was much faster than now.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=181440.0

[Rampion]

I find it hard to believe you missed the part where craploads of companies are accepting Bitcoins and that it is growing every day. 

I find it hard to believe that this same quote keeps being used after every crash. Yes, people were saying this in 2011 before we fell below $10.

Right. Bitcoin can grow behind the scenes and the market can still go down despite it. It happened before, it can happen again.

And it's happening.

[Peter Lambert]

bitcoins are inflating at over 10% per year, USD is only doing a couple percent inflation, so naturally the price of bitcoins measured in USD will go down over time.

1) According to official inflation figures, USD is only a couple percent inflation YoY. However, we all know the controversy surrounding how those figures are calculated. For the vast majority of people, food and energy prices (despite short-term volatility) have been increasing long-term at a rate far greater than the inflation rate suggested by the official index. I shouldn't have to explain this, this is pretty basic stuff. Look into how these indexes are calculated and what they actually mean for real people before you go citing them as if they are monetary gospel.

2) While actual price inflation isn't significant, the money supply is inflating at an unprecedented rate. If you don't think this will EVER affect price inflation, you are living in a dream world. Right now it's being safely tucked away in places like reserve banks, capital accounts, the S&P, and the derivatives market (many quadrillions of electronic dollars that we affectionally refer to as FRNcoin (federal reserve note coin.)

Therefore, it is unlikely that the price of bitcoins will go down in the long-term in the manner you describe, provided that either of two conditions are met: Adoption continues to increase, and/or the USD price inflation index (as flawed as it is) catches up to the astounding increase in money supply. The degrees required of each are dependent on the other, of course.

Just thought I'd clear that up in case anyone was under the impression you know what you were talking about  It's just not quite as cut-and-dry as you make it out to be, unless you are a Keynesian weenie who swallows all the official statistics along with a cup of Krugman's semen.

I guess my slight sarcasm was not showing through.

Long-term, I am bullish on the price of bitcoins. But short term bitcoins are still an unproven, volaitle, inflating currency which is generally hard to use, so the price increase might still be a ways off and we can continue sliding downward or sideways for a while.

[ex-trader]

I find it hard to believe you missed the part where craploads of companies are accepting Bitcoins and that it is growing every day.  

Companies accepting Bitcoin and actuals transactions occurring are two very different things.

I would be very interested to see volumes of provable transactions with Bitcoin, thats what people should be focussed on. There should be a Bitcoin Merchant Association, which everyone who sells goods/services should join that could then gather and promote actual transactions as opposed to BTC movements to/from exchanges, SR and S-Dice etc.

Then and only then will Bitcoin be a provable success.

[Mahn]

Am I the only one seeing this?

One week later:

Almost 4 weeks later:



I don't think this surprises anybody by this point, but hey, I called it a month ago.

[telemaco]

Am I the only one seeing this?

One week later:

Almost 4 weeks later:



I don't think this surprises anybody by this point, but hey, I called it a month ago.

hey you are the mahn !!

(sorry had to say it ...) ;-)

[Mahn]

Am I the only one seeing this?

(chart)

One week later:

(chart)

Almost 4 weeks later:

(chart)

I don't think this surprises anybody by this point, but hey, I called it a month ago.

hey you are the mahn !!

(sorry had to say it ...) ;-)

It's okay, I get that pretty often

[marvinrouge]

Very consistent rate of decent there, heres another one that might show what's going on a bit better:

it's because of the bots