Long term down trend?

[Mahn]

One week later:

[Jozzaboy]

One week later:

My fiat is ready

[notme]

One week later:

My fiat is ready

I wouldn't recommend trying to catch the bottom.  Dollar cost averaging is a great way to redeploy investment capital.

[hgmichna]

I wouldn't recommend trying to catch the bottom.  Dollar cost averaging is a great way to redeploy investment capital.

Writing something that nobody understands can mean two things. The author is either a genius or a complete idiot.

[ElectricMucus]

Too many people try to not catch the bottom in contrast to not trying to catch it.

If that it too complicated: If you happen to catch it, why not?

[mootinator]

I wouldn't recommend trying to catch the bottom.  Dollar cost averaging is a great way to redeploy investment capital.

Writing something that nobody understands can mean two things. The author is either a genius or a complete idiot.

Nobody understands that? Please tell me more about how you speak for everyone.

Dumping equal amounts of money into a falling market at regular intervals is a much better strategy than going all in where you think the bottom is.

[Peter Lambert]

bitcoins are inflating at over 10% per year, USD is only doing a couple percent inflation, so naturally the price of bitcoins measured in USD will go down over time.

[Frozenlock]

Dumping equal amounts of money into a falling market at regular intervals is a much better strategy than going all in where you think the bottom is.

How so?

Seems to me you are just diminishing the risks, along with potential profits.

[mootinator]

Dumping equal amounts of money into a falling market at regular intervals is a much better strategy than going all in where you think the bottom is.

How so?

Seems to me you are just diminishing the risks, along with potential profits.

You're more likely to not hit the bottom than you are to hit the bottom.

Compare two scenarios:
Dump $10,000 in at $50 because I think that's going to be the bottom so now I have 200BTC.

Dump $2,000 in at $50 = 40BTC
Dump $2,000 in at $40 = 50BTC
Dump $2,000 in at $10 = 200BTC
Dump $2,000 in at $100 = 20BTC
Dump $2,000 in at $120 = 16.67BTC
Total: 326.67BTC

From experience, if you're waiting for a buying opportunity the second scenario is more likely than predicting the bottom correctly. It's exceptionally hard to predict how low something you're bullish on (that happens to be falling) will actually go. Trying to catch the bottom is more akin to gambling.

[Frozenlock]

Like I said, you are just trading potential profits for risk management.

Nothing wrong with that, but that's not a "superior" method either.

[BitcoinAshley]

bitcoins are inflating at over 10% per year, USD is only doing a couple percent inflation, so naturally the price of bitcoins measured in USD will go down over time.

1) According to official inflation figures, USD is only a couple percent inflation YoY. However, we all know the controversy surrounding how those figures are calculated. For the vast majority of people, food and energy prices (despite short-term volatility) have been increasing long-term at a rate far greater than the inflation rate suggested by the official index. I shouldn't have to explain this, this is pretty basic stuff. Look into how these indexes are calculated and what they actually mean for real people before you go citing them as if they are monetary gospel.

2) While actual price inflation isn't significant, the money supply is inflating at an unprecedented rate. If you don't think this will EVER affect price inflation, you are living in a dream world. Right now it's being safely tucked away in places like reserve banks, capital accounts, the S&P, and the derivatives market (many quadrillions of electronic dollars that we affectionally refer to as FRNcoin (federal reserve note coin.)

Therefore, it is unlikely that the price of bitcoins will go down in the long-term in the manner you describe, provided that either of two conditions are met: Adoption continues to increase, and/or the USD price inflation index (as flawed as it is) catches up to the astounding increase in money supply. The degrees required of each are dependent on the other, of course.

Just thought I'd clear that up in case anyone was under the impression you know what you were talking about  It's just not quite as cut-and-dry as you make it out to be, unless you are a Keynesian weenie who swallows all the official statistics along with a cup of Krugman's semen.

[tokeweed]

That's not long term , that's only a ripple

just a ripple indeed. it could be 2011 all over again.  

what do you guys think right now?  it could be, right?

[painlord2k]

It can not be 2011 all over again, because in 2011 the total exponential grow was much faster than now.



BTC in 2011 had an internal inflation ranging from 100% to 50% (01/01/2011 against 31/12/2011) so it was a lousy store of value compared to the US$ and its 20% inflation (courtesy of the Fed.)
Inflation is defined as increase of the total supply of currency.

The real inflation, all considered was probably more than this, because a large quantity of BTC are kept out of the market and never touched (Satoshi stash and other early adopters, I suppose).
Now, inflation of the bitcoin supply is a lot lower (8 time lower) and it is under the US$ inflation. SO people have a good reason to convert their US$ in BTC and keep them in that form and only convert them in $ when they must use US$.

Other countries with a local currency managed worse than the Fed do with the US$ are converting to Bitcoin faster just because they are hard pressed to use their currency to buy anything else not losing value so fast. This is the reason Argentina is seeing a lot of adoption and the reason a lot of countries like Kenya are perfect candidate for mass adoption.

[ElectricMucus]

It can not be 2011 all over again, because in 2011 the total exponential grow was much faster than now.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=181440.0

[Rampion]

I find it hard to believe you missed the part where craploads of companies are accepting Bitcoins and that it is growing every day. 

I find it hard to believe that this same quote keeps being used after every crash. Yes, people were saying this in 2011 before we fell below $10.

Right. Bitcoin can grow behind the scenes and the market can still go down despite it. It happened before, it can happen again.

And it's happening.

[Peter Lambert]

bitcoins are inflating at over 10% per year, USD is only doing a couple percent inflation, so naturally the price of bitcoins measured in USD will go down over time.

1) According to official inflation figures, USD is only a couple percent inflation YoY. However, we all know the controversy surrounding how those figures are calculated. For the vast majority of people, food and energy prices (despite short-term volatility) have been increasing long-term at a rate far greater than the inflation rate suggested by the official index. I shouldn't have to explain this, this is pretty basic stuff. Look into how these indexes are calculated and what they actually mean for real people before you go citing them as if they are monetary gospel.

2) While actual price inflation isn't significant, the money supply is inflating at an unprecedented rate. If you don't think this will EVER affect price inflation, you are living in a dream world. Right now it's being safely tucked away in places like reserve banks, capital accounts, the S&P, and the derivatives market (many quadrillions of electronic dollars that we affectionally refer to as FRNcoin (federal reserve note coin.)

Therefore, it is unlikely that the price of bitcoins will go down in the long-term in the manner you describe, provided that either of two conditions are met: Adoption continues to increase, and/or the USD price inflation index (as flawed as it is) catches up to the astounding increase in money supply. The degrees required of each are dependent on the other, of course.

Just thought I'd clear that up in case anyone was under the impression you know what you were talking about  It's just not quite as cut-and-dry as you make it out to be, unless you are a Keynesian weenie who swallows all the official statistics along with a cup of Krugman's semen.

I guess my slight sarcasm was not showing through.

Long-term, I am bullish on the price of bitcoins. But short term bitcoins are still an unproven, volaitle, inflating currency which is generally hard to use, so the price increase might still be a ways off and we can continue sliding downward or sideways for a while.

[ex-trader]

I find it hard to believe you missed the part where craploads of companies are accepting Bitcoins and that it is growing every day.  

Companies accepting Bitcoin and actuals transactions occurring are two very different things.

I would be very interested to see volumes of provable transactions with Bitcoin, thats what people should be focussed on. There should be a Bitcoin Merchant Association, which everyone who sells goods/services should join that could then gather and promote actual transactions as opposed to BTC movements to/from exchanges, SR and S-Dice etc.

Then and only then will Bitcoin be a provable success.

[Mahn]

Am I the only one seeing this?

One week later:

Almost 4 weeks later:



I don't think this surprises anybody by this point, but hey, I called it a month ago.

[telemaco]

Am I the only one seeing this?

One week later:

Almost 4 weeks later:



I don't think this surprises anybody by this point, but hey, I called it a month ago.

hey you are the mahn !!

(sorry had to say it ...) ;-)

[Mahn]

Am I the only one seeing this?

(chart)

One week later:

(chart)

Almost 4 weeks later:

(chart)

I don't think this surprises anybody by this point, but hey, I called it a month ago.

hey you are the mahn !!

(sorry had to say it ...) ;-)

It's okay, I get that pretty often