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Author Topic: Looking to buy PUT options on ASICMiner  (Read 2522 times)
Vycid
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June 07, 2013, 10:12:52 PM
 #1

Hi there,

I'm trying to figure out a way to buy PUT options on ASICMiner stock, or, less ideally, short sell it.

Ideally, I'm looking for options with an expiration of a few months and a strike in the range of 1.5 - 2.0BTC.

Is there any way to achieve this, or am I SOL? The options listed for sale on btct and bitfunder don't fit the criteria, and I'm looking to buy, so I can't write my own.

Update:

I will immediately purchase ASICMiner puts expiring September 1st, with a strike of 1.8BTC, and a premium of 0.14BTC.

3 BTC limit.

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statdude
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June 07, 2013, 10:33:46 PM
 #2

Hi there,

I'm trying to figure out a way to buy PUT options on ASICMiner stock, or, less ideally, short sell it.

Ideally, I'm looking for options with an expiration of a few months and a strike in the range of 1.5 - 2.0BTC.

Is there any way to achieve this, or am I SOL? The options listed for sale on btct and bitfunder don't fit the criteria, and I'm looking to buy, so I can't write my own.

I'll get some written then reply here. BTCT or Bitfunder?  What's your offer?
Vycid
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June 07, 2013, 10:41:37 PM
 #3

Hi there,

I'm trying to figure out a way to buy PUT options on ASICMiner stock, or, less ideally, short sell it.

Ideally, I'm looking for options with an expiration of a few months and a strike in the range of 1.5 - 2.0BTC.

Is there any way to achieve this, or am I SOL? The options listed for sale on btct and bitfunder don't fit the criteria, and I'm looking to buy, so I can't write my own.

I'll get some written then reply here. BTCT or Bitfunder?  What's your offer?

I would be prepared to purchase 25 puts immediately at a price of 0.1BTC, strike of 1.8BTC, and expiration of Sep. 1st. BTCT preferred.

Maybe more later when some bitcoins come in.

TsuyokuNaritai
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June 07, 2013, 10:46:50 PM
 #4

Interesting. Why are you so bearish on AM?

(Don't worry about dissuading PUT-sellers, the discussion would attract more! Grin)

Vycid
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June 07, 2013, 10:47:38 PM
 #5

Interesting. Why do you think they're going to fall?

(Don't worry about dissuading PUT-sellers, the discussion would attract more! Grin)

I've done some statistics with the rate of difficulty increase and the anticipated hashrate increase. They're overvalued.

(I DON'T think they're gonna fail, but I think the odds of being below 1.7BTC before September are worth up to a 0.1BTC premium.)

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June 07, 2013, 11:15:57 PM
 #6

1st of September is quite an interesting date, indeed. Basically, will AM proof sustainability or not...

What I think:

Your strike is reasonable, but the price too low to even start gambling Smiley
Maybe you find someone to PUT on date for 0.1 price, but not for immediate option.
Vycid
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June 07, 2013, 11:43:58 PM
 #7

1st of September is quite an interesting date, indeed. Basically, will AM proof sustainability or not...

What I think:

Your strike is reasonable, but the price too low to even start gambling Smiley
Maybe you find someone to PUT on date for 0.1 price, but not for immediate option.

Yeah, I was worried about that. Nobody wants their BTC tied up in options unless the premium is large...

I guess none of the exchanges will let you use your held ASICMiner shares as collateral against options? I'm imagining an arrangement where if ASICMiner starts trading near 1.7, then anyone using their shares to cover in the event of exercise will get a maintenance call.

I sense a business opportunity.  Smiley

In the meantime, that offer stands. I can't beat 0.1BTC per option for the moment. Maybe later I'll consider a higher strike in exchange for a higher price...?

Eric Muyser
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June 08, 2013, 03:08:10 AM
 #8

1st of September is quite an interesting date, indeed. Basically, will AM proof sustainability or not...

What I think:

Your strike is reasonable, but the price too low to even start gambling Smiley
Maybe you find someone to PUT on date for 0.1 price, but not for immediate option.


Yah same thought here. I'd bullish on AM and would happily take some PUT options but I'm not tying up my BTC for months for basically 5%. Maybe 20%, minimum.

@EricMuyser | EricMuyser.com | OTC - "Defeat is a state of mind; no one is ever defeated until defeat has been accepted as a reality" - Bruce Lee
statdude
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June 09, 2013, 09:00:07 PM
 #9

Interesting. Why do you think they're going to fall?

(Don't worry about dissuading PUT-sellers, the discussion would attract more! Grin)

I've done some statistics with the rate of difficulty increase and the anticipated hashrate increase. They're overvalued.

(I DON'T think they're gonna fail, but I think the odds of being below 1.7BTC before September are worth up to a 0.1BTC premium.)

Such an option is worth about .25 BTC actually. I'd write you a few at that price at the lowest.



bb999
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June 10, 2013, 01:40:36 AM
 #10

Hi there,

I'm trying to figure out a way to buy PUT options on ASICMiner stock, or, less ideally, short sell it.

Ideally, I'm looking for options with an expiration of a few months and a strike in the range of 1.5 - 2.0BTC.

Is there any way to achieve this, or am I SOL? The options listed for sale on btct and bitfunder don't fit the criteria, and I'm looking to buy, so I can't write my own.

In the same vein, I have been wondering for some time now how to increase the volume of options traded on any BTC exchange related to BTC securities.  It seems like a ripe opportunity to generate further interest in the currency, but the options I have offered on BTC-TC regularly go without a bid. 

Any suggestions on how to increase traffic/volume in this area of BTC trading?
TsuyokuNaritai
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June 10, 2013, 01:51:56 AM
 #11

Any suggestions on how to increase traffic/volume in this area of BTC trading?

If you don't want coins kept locked up but you don't mind shares locked up, be able to offer shares as collateral to the exchange against the coins that are promised to the buyer if they exercise the option.

Or, have an option to let the exchange lend the coins out for interest (eg. to coinlenders.com) instead of having them just sit there gathering dust till the option expires.

bb999
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June 10, 2013, 01:53:14 AM
 #12

Interesting. Why do you think they're going to fall?

(Don't worry about dissuading PUT-sellers, the discussion would attract more! Grin)

I've done some statistics with the rate of difficulty increase and the anticipated hashrate increase. They're overvalued.

(I DON'T think they're gonna fail, but I think the odds of being below 1.7BTC before September are worth up to a 0.1BTC premium.)

Such an option is worth about .25 BTC actually. I'd write you a few at that price at the lowest.


It's worth .25 BTC based on what?  That may be a reasonable number but you need to provide some backing not just your opinion stated as if it's fact.
bb999
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June 10, 2013, 01:58:14 AM
 #13

1st of September is quite an interesting date, indeed. Basically, will AM proof sustainability or not...

What I think:

Your strike is reasonable, but the price too low to even start gambling Smiley
Maybe you find someone to PUT on date for 0.1 price, but not for immediate option.

Yeah, I was worried about that. Nobody wants their BTC tied up in options unless the premium is large...

I guess none of the exchanges will let you use your held ASICMiner shares as collateral against options? I'm imagining an arrangement where if ASICMiner starts trading near 1.7, then anyone using their shares to cover in the event of exercise will get a maintenance call.

I sense a business opportunity.  Smiley

In the meantime, that offer stands. I can't beat 0.1BTC per option for the moment. Maybe later I'll consider a higher strike in exchange for a higher price...?

The economics of the trade are debatable.  However .1BTC premium on 1.8BTC strike expiring Aug 30 (what is currently available on BTC-TC) is a 5.5% premium for 3 months (22% annualized without compounding) a solid nominal return.

statdude
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June 10, 2013, 07:31:51 PM
 #14

Interesting. Why do you think they're going to fall?

(Don't worry about dissuading PUT-sellers, the discussion would attract more! Grin)

I've done some statistics with the rate of difficulty increase and the anticipated hashrate increase. They're overvalued.

(I DON'T think they're gonna fail, but I think the odds of being below 1.7BTC before September are worth up to a 0.1BTC premium.)

Such an option is worth about .25 BTC actually. I'd write you a few at that price at the lowest.


It's worth .25 BTC based on what?  That may be a reasonable number but you need to provide some backing not just your opinion stated as if it's fact.

Based on black scholes... with 45 day implied volatility of the stock + estimate of .017ish average div.
murfshake
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June 10, 2013, 10:03:17 PM
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Does anyone have any reading material or sources about the OP's topic that would be relevant to investing in BTC?
statdude
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June 10, 2013, 10:11:11 PM
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Stock was trading at about 150% volatility before it got stuck at 2.5

hard to quantify now but technicall its now 100%

just using the same option pricing mechanisms as wall st.
bb999
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June 10, 2013, 11:23:19 PM
 #17

Interesting. Why do you think they're going to fall?

(Don't worry about dissuading PUT-sellers, the discussion would attract more! Grin)

I've done some statistics with the rate of difficulty increase and the anticipated hashrate increase. They're overvalued.

(I DON'T think they're gonna fail, but I think the odds of being below 1.7BTC before September are worth up to a 0.1BTC premium.)

Such an option is worth about .25 BTC actually. I'd write you a few at that price at the lowest.


It's worth .25 BTC based on what?  That may be a reasonable number but you need to provide some backing not just your opinion stated as if it's fact.

Based on black scholes... with 45 day implied volatility of the stock + estimate of .017ish average div.

Thank you for citing a source, we can debate the usefulness of Black-Scholes separately (implied vs realized volatility for instance) but I appreciate you offering some stat backing
Vycid
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June 11, 2013, 12:25:26 AM
 #18

I've only gotten one acceptable offer for options so far, so I'm going to raise the premium a little bit. This is firm: do not bother asking for a higher premium/shorter time period/whatever.

I will immediately purchase ASICMiner puts expiring September 1st, with a strike of 1.8BTC, and a premium of 0.14BTC.

3 BTC limit.

Vycid
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June 28, 2013, 07:09:16 PM
 #19

Hey all,

I'm still buying about 7 more ASICMiner-PT put options.

Strike: 2.3 BTC
Exp: ~90 days
Premium: 0.2 BTC


(again, I am buying puts, you would need to write them)

BTCT please. If you decide to list, make sure to send me a PM.

Cheers,

Vycid

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June 28, 2013, 11:16:32 PM
 #20

I've never bought or emitted options so far, but the offer is interesting and I'm considering it.
btct offers 84d (i.e. 12w) options.

However I've made some calculations, and locking 2.3 BTC for a 0.2 premium equals to a weekly gain of 0.01666667, which I think will be lower than the dividend that AM will pay during this period (assuming 0.0290 weekly dividends, that would be 0.01957273 adjusted to what I could buy now with 2.3 BTC), so I could as well buy some AM-PT shares with those coins and have a higher return.

Would you accept either:
 • 84d, 2.3 strike, 0.28 premium
 • 56d, 2.3 strike, 0.16 premium
?

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