Question for GPU miners

[rograz]

The surprise for scrypt miners will come when mining scrypt is not profitable either. Who would trade ASIC earned BTC for GPU earned LTC at an effective loss? Yes I do believe the LTC economy is just an accessory to the BTC economy and can't stand up on its own right.

I agree, and then difficulty will drop until enough people are making a profit, somewhere someone will be mining scrypt profitable but unless you have cheap power and are prepared to optimize your rigs for efficiency I wouldn't bother. Worst case scenario scrypt mining in 6 months consists of people with free power looking for pennies on the bottom of a very deep well, but I doubt it will get that bad.

The thing LTC has going for it is when/if mtgox finally implements trading and fuel another bubble for a few weeks/months, long term I don't see even that saving profitable scrypt mining for most people however.

[firefop]

There's no reason why they wouldn't switch to litecoin or some other scrypt coin. Many already have, and as it is currently more profitable even without too many ASICs, I think that's what will happen sooner rather than later.

I chose to sell off my GPUs this month (yes they're already sold) - I'm not interested in mining alt coins with GPU. Frankly 2+ years of that noise should be enough for anyone. I have not (as of yet) replaced any of my lost hash rate with overpriced and under performing (but instantly available) asic devices. I'm debating simply holding the bitcoin for awhile. I do have early orders with BFL for enough singles to not make the missing hash rate matter if bfl delivers this year. Until then (or something else becomes quick to get and has good power profile) I'll be fine with my reduced electric bill.

The only rule for buying mining hardware now is most mh/s/j wins.

We're just getting out of the 'bad old days' of bitcoin mining and I don't understand miners who are willing to put themselves through that again for an alt coin that's clearly inferior to bitcoin.

[firefop]

The surprise for scrypt miners will come when mining scrypt is not profitable either. Who would trade ASIC earned BTC for GPU earned LTC at an effective loss? Yes I do believe the LTC economy is just an accessory to the BTC economy and can't stand up on its own right.

I agree, and then difficulty will drop until enough people are making a profit, somewhere someone will be mining scrypt profitable but unless you have cheap power and are prepared to optimize your rigs for efficiency I wouldn't bother. Worst case scenario scrypt mining in 6 months consists of people with free power looking for pennies on the bottom of a very deep well, but I doubt it will get that bad.

The thing LTC has going for it is when/if mtgox finally implements trading and fuel another bubble for a few weeks/months, long term I don't see even that saving profitable scrypt mining for most people however.

I agree - moreover, scrypt coins are doomed to failure by their very design. You cannot design a digital process that someone isn't going to be able to build hardware... to perform faster for less power. So if litecoin (for example) ever saw some decent numbers in it's price (say between 7 and 15 bucks a coin) almost immediately someone would come out with an FPGA to mine it and the entire thing would go tits up.

[Hippie Tech]

The surprise for scrypt miners will come when mining scrypt is not profitable either. Who would trade ASIC earned BTC for GPU earned LTC at an effective loss? Yes I do believe the LTC economy is just an accessory to the BTC economy and can't stand up on its own right.

I agree, and then difficulty will drop until enough people are making a profit, somewhere someone will be mining scrypt profitable but unless you have cheap power and are prepared to optimize your rigs for efficiency I wouldn't bother. Worst case scenario scrypt mining in 6 months consists of people with free power looking for pennies on the bottom of a very deep well, but I doubt it will get that bad.

The thing LTC has going for it is when/if mtgox finally implements trading and fuel another bubble for a few weeks/months, long term I don't see even that saving profitable scrypt mining for most people however.

I agree - moreover, scrypt coins are doomed to failure by their very design. You cannot design a digital process that someone isn't going to be able to build hardware... to perform faster for less power. So if litecoin (for example) ever saw some decent numbers in it's price (say between 7 and 15 bucks a coin) almost immediately someone would come out with an FPGA to mine it and the entire thing would go tits up.

If what I've heard is true, Fpga's are already mining scrypt.

[-ck]

If what I've heard is true, Fpga's are already mining scrypt.

Unconvinced, and first - even if they are, they are unlikely to be a significant performance/power advantage over GPUs, and second - mining, no matter what the means, efficiency, power, resistance, mechanism etc. does not create an ecosystem in and of itself.

[azw409]

We're just getting out of the 'bad old days' of bitcoin mining and I don't understand miners who are willing to put themselves through that again for an alt coin that's clearly inferior to bitcoin.

I agree, I've been trying LTC, but many of the blocks don't even contain a single transaction so it's an utterly pointless activity. Where's the value in a currency that you can't spend and nobody's using ?

[zvs]

Lets face it, BTC is going to die sooner or later for GPU miners. As a few have said, anything SHA based is pretty much stuffed.

Then scrypt will face similar problems with the increase of GPU miners switching, difficulty will increase making it harder for small time miners to stay in. Only the heavy hitters will stay afloat.

The surprise for scrypt miners will come when mining scrypt is not profitable either. Who would trade ASIC earned BTC for GPU earned LTC at an effective loss? Yes I do believe the LTC economy is just an accessory to the BTC economy and can't stand up on its own right.

Agreed

But I guess if it helps me sell off the rest of my 5xxx...  I have 4 left out of like 20 a month ago.  

ed: oh, i'll still be profitable next difficulty cycle, assuming price stays > $100..... about $400 after elec.  after figuring in "standard" equipment depreciation, $200-$300?  not worth the effort, but I guess it's not a loss waiting for stuff to sell

[Hippie Tech]

If what I've heard is true, Fpga's are already mining scrypt.

Unconvinced, and first - even if they are, they are unlikely to be a significant performance/power advantage over GPUs, and second - mining, no matter what the means, efficiency, power, resistance, mechanism etc. does not create an ecosystem in and of itself.

Makes sense and +1 azw409.

Pardon my noobility but..

Aren't we just a firmware update or fork away from scrypt asics becoming a reality ?

Its very obvious to me how the current gpu exodus/ alt coin frenzy and the gpu sell off of 2012 were both acic induced. Its a conspiracy to centralize BTC and eventually the entire crypto movement.

With the much of the competition shut down or diverted, asic owners are more than happy to see the difficulty stay as artificially low as it is.

@ all alt-coin miners..

If you think 15M diff is high. How are you going to like 30M after most of these useless alts get asic'd and/or become worthless ?

[flipper]

The surprise for scrypt miners will come when mining scrypt is not profitable either. Who would trade ASIC earned BTC for GPU earned LTC at an effective loss? Yes I do believe the LTC economy is just an accessory to the BTC economy and can't stand up on its own right.

I agree, and then difficulty will drop until enough people are making a profit, somewhere someone will be mining scrypt profitable but unless you have cheap power and are prepared to optimize your rigs for efficiency I wouldn't bother. Worst case scenario scrypt mining in 6 months consists of people with free power looking for pennies on the bottom of a very deep well, but I doubt it will get that bad.

The thing LTC has going for it is when/if mtgox finally implements trading and fuel another bubble for a few weeks/months, long term I don't see even that saving profitable scrypt mining for most people however.

I agree - moreover, scrypt coins are doomed to failure by their very design. You cannot design a digital process that someone isn't going to be able to build hardware... to perform faster for less power. So if litecoin (for example) ever saw some decent numbers in it's price (say between 7 and 15 bucks a coin) almost immediately someone would come out with an FPGA to mine it and the entire thing would go tits up.

If what I've heard is true, Fpga's are already mining scrypt.

Where did you hear that?

[Hippie Tech]

The surprise for scrypt miners will come when mining scrypt is not profitable either. Who would trade ASIC earned BTC for GPU earned LTC at an effective loss? Yes I do believe the LTC economy is just an accessory to the BTC economy and can't stand up on its own right.

I agree, and then difficulty will drop until enough people are making a profit, somewhere someone will be mining scrypt profitable but unless you have cheap power and are prepared to optimize your rigs for efficiency I wouldn't bother. Worst case scenario scrypt mining in 6 months consists of people with free power looking for pennies on the bottom of a very deep well, but I doubt it will get that bad.

The thing LTC has going for it is when/if mtgox finally implements trading and fuel another bubble for a few weeks/months, long term I don't see even that saving profitable scrypt mining for most people however.

I agree - moreover, scrypt coins are doomed to failure by their very design. You cannot design a digital process that someone isn't going to be able to build hardware... to perform faster for less power. So if litecoin (for example) ever saw some decent numbers in it's price (say between 7 and 15 bucks a coin) almost immediately someone would come out with an FPGA to mine it and the entire thing would go tits up.

If what I've heard is true, Fpga's are already mining scrypt.

Where did you hear that?

Cryptsy

Just found this... and that.. lol
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91210.0

http://blockburner.net/

[rovchris]

ASIC's will devalue bitcoin's

If you can produce something more efficiently it has less value.

Look at Gold - Gold increases in price due to mining costs.

If someone came along with a machine that could just suck the gold right out of the ground and did not need to mine - what would happen to the gold price?

The distribution of ASIC's has totally upset the balance.

If scrypt coins require more power and resources to mine - long term they would have more value.


Gold is rare and difficult to mine - hence its value.

If I developed a quantum computer and it mined all the remaining Bitcoins in 1 week then what? Do they still have the same value?

To further the analogy if gold could only be mined by hand tools its value would be substantially more than it is now.

[jhansen858]

Hey Lucas

I have a hunch that asics were developed with 51% attack mentality in mind. The easiest way to take BTC down would be to centralize it's hashpower.

With so many of these in the hands of the relatively few, the last thing we need right now is another alt coin diverting more gpus.

Asics are actually cheaper then GPU's... and therefore more available to the masses.

[rovchris]

Hey Lucas

I have a hunch that asics were developed with 51% attack mentality in mind. The easiest way to take BTC down would be to centralize it's hashpower.

With so many of these in the hands of the relatively few, the last thing we need right now is another alt coin diverting more gpus.

Asics are actually cheaper then GPU's... and therefore more available to the masses.

The thing is I can order 40 gpu's for next day delivery.

You can not order ASIC's for next day - you are in a queue with no guaranteed delivery date - could be weeks / months and years (BFL). By the time it arrives the difficulty could be so high that they don't even pay for themselves.

It puts such a big question mark over your ROI that you are unlikely to place an order. Only the very early adopters stand to benefit making mining an exclusive venture.

[glon]

ASIC's will devalue bitcoin's

If you can produce something more efficiently it has less value.

Look at Gold - Gold increases in price due to mining costs.

If someone came along with a machine that could just suck the gold right out of the ground and did not need to mine - what would happen to the gold price?

The distribution of ASIC's has totally upset the balance.

If scrypt coins require more power and resources to mine - long term they would have more value.


Gold is rare and difficult to mine - hence its value.

If I developed a quantum computer and it mined all the remaining Bitcoins in 1 week then what? Do they still have the same value?

To further the analogy if gold could only be mined by hand tools its value would be substantially more than it is now.

Umm, it's not like ASICs can increase the amount of available coins on the market so no you are wrong.

[rovchris]

ASIC's will devalue bitcoin's

If you can produce something more efficiently it has less value.

Look at Gold - Gold increases in price due to mining costs.

If someone came along with a machine that could just suck the gold right out of the ground and did not need to mine - what would happen to the gold price?

The distribution of ASIC's has totally upset the balance.

If scrypt coins require more power and resources to mine - long term they would have more value.


Gold is rare and difficult to mine - hence its value.

If I developed a quantum computer and it mined all the remaining Bitcoins in 1 week then what? Do they still have the same value?

To further the analogy if gold could only be mined by hand tools its value would be substantially more than it is now.

Umm, it's not like ASICs can increase the amount of available coins on the market so no you are wrong.

No you are wrong - And yes they can - if the Network hash rate grows exponentially it will always be ahead of the difficulty.

If the network hash rate trebled today the block time would be reduced so more coins would be produced.

[zvs]

ASIC's will devalue bitcoin's

If you can produce something more efficiently it has less value.

Look at Gold - Gold increases in price due to mining costs.

If someone came along with a machine that could just suck the gold right out of the ground and did not need to mine - what would happen to the gold price?

The distribution of ASIC's has totally upset the balance.

If scrypt coins require more power and resources to mine - long term they would have more value.


Gold is rare and difficult to mine - hence its value.

If I developed a quantum computer and it mined all the remaining Bitcoins in 1 week then what? Do they still have the same value?

To further the analogy if gold could only be mined by hand tools its value would be substantially more than it is now.

Umm, it's not like ASICs can increase the amount of available coins on the market so no you are wrong.

the available amt of coins on the market is always increasing

and difficulty adjustments dont occur instantly, either

i've talked to a few people and my theory is the recent drop was the ppl with the avalon 2 units selling as fast as they can.  the continuing pressure for the last few months is probably just asicminer selling 25btc every block it gets

[glon]

ASIC's will devalue bitcoin's

If you can produce something more efficiently it has less value.

Look at Gold - Gold increases in price due to mining costs.

If someone came along with a machine that could just suck the gold right out of the ground and did not need to mine - what would happen to the gold price?

The distribution of ASIC's has totally upset the balance.

If scrypt coins require more power and resources to mine - long term they would have more value.


Gold is rare and difficult to mine - hence its value.

If I developed a quantum computer and it mined all the remaining Bitcoins in 1 week then what? Do they still have the same value?

To further the analogy if gold could only be mined by hand tools its value would be substantially more than it is now.

Umm, it's not like ASICs can increase the amount of available coins on the market so no you are wrong.

the available amt of coins on the market is always increasing

and difficulty adjustments dont occur instantly, either

i've talked to a few people and my theory is the recent drop was the ppl with the avalon 2 units selling as fast as they can.  the continuing pressure for the last few months is probably just asicminer selling 25btc every block it gets

Yea but the rate of new coins remains steady no matter how many ASICs there are and how efficiently they are mining... So applying the "If you can produce something more efficiently it has less value." formula to the value of BTC is wrong.

[zvs]

ASIC's will devalue bitcoin's

If you can produce something more efficiently it has less value.

Look at Gold - Gold increases in price due to mining costs.

If someone came along with a machine that could just suck the gold right out of the ground and did not need to mine - what would happen to the gold price?

The distribution of ASIC's has totally upset the balance.

If scrypt coins require more power and resources to mine - long term they would have more value.


Gold is rare and difficult to mine - hence its value.

If I developed a quantum computer and it mined all the remaining Bitcoins in 1 week then what? Do they still have the same value?

To further the analogy if gold could only be mined by hand tools its value would be substantially more than it is now.

Umm, it's not like ASICs can increase the amount of available coins on the market so no you are wrong.

the available amt of coins on the market is always increasing

and difficulty adjustments dont occur instantly, either

i've talked to a few people and my theory is the recent drop was the ppl with the avalon 2 units selling as fast as they can.  the continuing pressure for the last few months is probably just asicminer selling 25btc every block it gets

Yea but the rate of new coins remains steady no matter how many ASICs there are and how efficiently they are mining... So applying the "If you can produce something more efficiently it has less value." formula to the value of BTC is wrong.

it doesn't

last difficulty cycle I believe the avg was around 7 per hr? (ed: hmm more like 7.5)

[rovchris]

ASIC's will devalue bitcoin's

If you can produce something more efficiently it has less value.

Look at Gold - Gold increases in price due to mining costs.

If someone came along with a machine that could just suck the gold right out of the ground and did not need to mine - what would happen to the gold price?

The distribution of ASIC's has totally upset the balance.

If scrypt coins require more power and resources to mine - long term they would have more value.


Gold is rare and difficult to mine - hence its value.

If I developed a quantum computer and it mined all the remaining Bitcoins in 1 week then what? Do they still have the same value?

To further the analogy if gold could only be mined by hand tools its value would be substantially more than it is now.

Umm, it's not like ASICs can increase the amount of available coins on the market so no you are wrong.

the available amt of coins on the market is always increasing

and difficulty adjustments dont occur instantly, either

i've talked to a few people and my theory is the recent drop was the ppl with the avalon 2 units selling as fast as they can.  the continuing pressure for the last few months is probably just asicminer selling 25btc every block it gets

Yea but the rate of new coins remains steady no matter how many ASICs there are and how efficiently they are mining... So applying the "If you can produce something more efficiently it has less value." formula to the value of BTC is wrong.

If that is true please give me the exact time and date of the next difficulty adjustment and the difficulty.

If ASICMiner goes offline again - causing a 25TH/s  drop in network performance the difficulty adjustment may take twice as long

http://www.asicminercharts.com/

[glon]

ASIC's will devalue bitcoin's

If you can produce something more efficiently it has less value.

Look at Gold - Gold increases in price due to mining costs.

If someone came along with a machine that could just suck the gold right out of the ground and did not need to mine - what would happen to the gold price?

The distribution of ASIC's has totally upset the balance.

If scrypt coins require more power and resources to mine - long term they would have more value.


Gold is rare and difficult to mine - hence its value.

If I developed a quantum computer and it mined all the remaining Bitcoins in 1 week then what? Do they still have the same value?

To further the analogy if gold could only be mined by hand tools its value would be substantially more than it is now.

Umm, it's not like ASICs can increase the amount of available coins on the market so no you are wrong.

the available amt of coins on the market is always increasing

and difficulty adjustments dont occur instantly, either

i've talked to a few people and my theory is the recent drop was the ppl with the avalon 2 units selling as fast as they can.  the continuing pressure for the last few months is probably just asicminer selling 25btc every block it gets

Yea but the rate of new coins remains steady no matter how many ASICs there are and how efficiently they are mining... So applying the "If you can produce something more efficiently it has less value." formula to the value of BTC is wrong.

If that is true please give me the exact time and date of the next difficulty adjustment and the difficulty.

Not sure what you mean. I thought the sole purpose of BTC mining difficulty adjustments was to keep the influx of new coins into the system steady... Please correct me if I am wrong.