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BTCMILLIONAIRE
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November 02, 2017, 06:37:17 PM
 #161

I don't think you can say that

I mean this is not "real life commerce" by any metric, though it may certainly make you think so since it looks like you really paid with bitcoins for the goods you bought. If anything, it is just a hidden form of speculation. And yes, it does add more fuel to speculation and demand simply because it is speculation in its own right. Further, while I could somewhat agree to your claim that vendors using or not using BitPay as a middleman might not affect prices (though this is debatable but I won't digress), this doesn't add to real adoption anything if that was your point
I should've worded it a bit differently, as directly accepting Bitcoin would surely accelerate adoption. But just being able to quickly liquidate your assets by "directly" being able to purchase real goods with your assets (even through a middleman) is something that was and is not possible with traditional assets.
Thus a wide spread acceptance of cryptos (even through a middleman) would offer a completely new merit to cryptos as a form of asset that stocks, ETFs, bonds, etc. do not have, since you first have to sell them to be able to use the money for anything. And that can take several days to weeks in some cases.

I don't quite get your point

Indeed, you can't buy goods "directly" with stocks, ETFs, bonds, whatever, but what does it change? If we are not talking about some trash or toxic assets here (think of shitcoins as a sort of cryptoanalogy here), you can liquidate your assets pretty close to instant. It is surely not like it would take "several days to weeks in some cases" if we talk about, for example, major stocks or US Treasuries. I agree that this is something new in this "direct liquidation" (if I can call it so), but honestly, I don't see how it would contribute to Bitcoin popularity to any noticeable degree
I don't know what things are like in the US. But in Europe you have to close your position and then wait until it's accredited to your bank account to be able to use it. You can't always spend money directly out of your brokerage account, which is why people keep money in their bank account in the first place for "emergencies"

Okay, now I see what you mean

But the problem you raise has more to do with Bitcoin transfers versus fiat transfers rather than being able to spend your coins "directly" when you you can spend fiat money without any reservations (read directly in a true sense of the word). In other words, I don't see any particular difference between spending bitcoins when buying goods and spending fiat when buying the same goods. In fact, with Bitcoin you risk your transaction being denied for whatever reason (e.g. a sudden drop in exchange rate). Obviously, there are no such issues with fiat. In short, you make incorrect comparisons since you should compare Bitcoin with fiat, not with stocks or whatever
Bitcoin right now is more of a speculative investment than a currency though, at least until sufficient adoption to dampen the volatility takes place. Which is why I've compared it to other assets, rather than fiat currency. But yes, you are right with the risks of using it as a currency with no intermediary, although the risk is in Bitpay in current situations. How do they deal with this by the way? Are they just speculating that prices will increase?

Honestly, I don't know

But if I were in their place, I would be massively hedging their exposure to price volatility on major exchanges such as Bitfinex or Poloniex, the exchanges which allow shorting. There are many ways to get rid of volatility risks, so it is certainly possible to do. I don't really think that they are speculating since this involves additional risks, and they likely try to diminish risks, not to increase them. For example, if they have 1000 bitcoins as their turnover volume (i.e. they have this amount of bitcoins at any given moment), it makes sense to short at least some part of this volume. In this way, they become safe from abrupt price changes. It will cost them something (rather small percentage) but it is certainly worth doing
Interesting, I wasn't aware you could short Bitcoins. Or do they just sell the ones they get to "short"?

I wonder to what extent they mitigate their risks though. If they can sustain themselves while holding any decent amount of Bitcoins that could potentially mean massive profits.

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November 02, 2017, 07:23:38 PM
 #162

Bitcoin right now is more of a speculative investment than a currency though, at least until sufficient adoption to dampen the volatility takes place. Which is why I've compared it to other assets, rather than fiat currency. But yes, you are right with the risks of using it as a currency with no intermediary, although the risk is in Bitpay in current situations. How do they deal with this by the way? Are they just speculating that prices will increase?

Honestly, I don't know

But if I were in their place, I would be massively hedging their exposure to price volatility on major exchanges such as Bitfinex or Poloniex, the exchanges which allow shorting. There are many ways to get rid of volatility risks, so it is certainly possible to do. I don't really think that they are speculating since this involves additional risks, and they likely try to diminish risks, not to increase them. For example, if they have 1000 bitcoins as their turnover volume (i.e. they have this amount of bitcoins at any given moment), it makes sense to short at least some part of this volume. In this way, they become safe from abrupt price changes. It will cost them something (rather small percentage) but it is certainly worth doing
Interesting, I wasn't aware you could short Bitcoins. Or do they just sell the ones they get to "short"?

I wonder to what extent they mitigate their risks though. If they can sustain themselves while holding any decent amount of Bitcoins that could potentially mean massive profits.

Strictly speaking, I don't know that either

But this is the most obvious solution if you want to hedge against volatility risks and sudden price changes. Shorting, for them, basically means selling in advance, i.e. they short what they expect to receive and then close their position when they receive the actual bitcoins. In this way they always receive the same price in dollar terms which was at the moment of the purchase no matter how hard or fast the Bitcoin price may change

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November 02, 2017, 07:40:51 PM
 #163

This will go untill BTC reaches its 3rd wave peak, afterwards BTC will begin to fall and alts will regain the momentum IMO
That is happening from past 9 years. So many times, bitcoin was regulated in huge race of dips. At that time even the experience traders were afraid of what is happening but they had a trust in bitcoin. And this trust has gained by showing the audience when bitcoin revived again and again. Better profits for bitcoin now, and you will be amazed to see the progress in upcoming years.
we have got ATH several times this year , it was really something unexpected.

it is not because of the fork only , but at the same time it is the time for bitcoin to increase the rates. as the demand keep growing and really rare to see a lot of bitcoin mined nowadays make the price skyrocketing amazingly.

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November 02, 2017, 08:18:31 PM
 #164

Apart from reaching a new ATH, bitcoin is also regaining dominance vs other alts. It was halved between March and June and bitcoin has been slowly regaining it but lately seems to have received a boost.



Source: (https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage)

Any ideas about why this is happening?

The recent cause for bitcoin to go up after the bitcoin gold hardfork is that a stock exchange has decided to list bitcoin in the future and there is crazy demand for bitcoin at the moment ,another hardfork is also coming up which is legit on November 3rd week,so there is demand for bitcoin more than that of altcoins. Bitcoin has been dominating since forever ,so no surprise in that.

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November 02, 2017, 08:46:11 PM
 #165

Bitcoin is regaining dominance, yes. It always does if you look back in time. Bitcoin is a deflationary currency which means that the supply that is being distributed every 10 minutes via the blockchain where miners receive a reward, that is halved every four years and it started of with 50BTC in 2009. Now it is 7.25 for a block reward, but the miners that hash also get fees from transactions as well.

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November 02, 2017, 08:55:28 PM
 #166

Bitcoin is regaining dominance, yes. It always does if you look back in time. Bitcoin is a deflationary currency which means that the supply that is being distributed every 10 minutes via the blockchain where miners receive a reward, that is halved every four years and it started of with 50BTC in 2009. Now it is 7.25 for a block reward, but the miners that hash also get fees from transactions as well.

So far Bitcoin is inflationary

Though you could in fact claim that many coins get lost everyday and thus the real number of bitcoins available for trading or other uses is gradually diminishing. But ultimately this is irrelevant. What matters is real adoption, and if there is none, no amount of scarcity (if i can say so) will help Bitcoin. It is not enough to be scarce, Bitcoin (or anything else, for that matter) should also be useful for some real purpose. Speculation gives Bitcoin what some would call value, speculative value, but how long will it last on speculation alone?

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November 02, 2017, 09:04:31 PM
 #167

Bitcoin is regaining dominance, yes. It always does if you look back in time. Bitcoin is a deflationary currency which means that the supply that is being distributed every 10 minutes via the blockchain where miners receive a reward, that is halved every four years and it started of with 50BTC in 2009. Now it is 7.25 for a block reward, but the miners that hash also get fees from transactions as well.

So far Bitcoin is inflationary

Though you could in fact claim that many coins get lost everyday and thus the real number of bitcoins available for trading or other uses is gradually diminishing. But ultimately this is irrelevant. What matters is real adoption, and if there is none, no amount of scarcity (if i can say so) will help Bitcoin. It is not enough to be scarce, Bitcoin (or anything else, for that matter) should also be useful for some real purpose. Speculation gives Bitcoin which some would call value, speculative value, but how long will it last on speculation alone?
Is it in any way possible to estimate how many coins have been lost accurately?

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November 03, 2017, 09:01:08 AM
 #168

Bitcoin is regaining dominance, yes. It always does if you look back in time. Bitcoin is a deflationary currency which means that the supply that is being distributed every 10 minutes via the blockchain where miners receive a reward, that is halved every four years and it started of with 50BTC in 2009. Now it is 7.25 for a block reward, but the miners that hash also get fees from transactions as well.

So far Bitcoin is inflationary

Though you could in fact claim that many coins get lost everyday and thus the real number of bitcoins available for trading or other uses is gradually diminishing. But ultimately this is irrelevant. What matters is real adoption, and if there is none, no amount of scarcity (if i can say so) will help Bitcoin. It is not enough to be scarce, Bitcoin (or anything else, for that matter) should also be useful for some real purpose. Speculation gives Bitcoin which some would call value, speculative value, but how long will it last on speculation alone?
Is it in any way possible to estimate how many coins have been lost accurately?

No, I don't think so

All your estimates would be rather vague and prone to huge errors. For example, would you consider 1M bitcoins which Satoshi has as lost? We don't even know who is Satoshi, let alone if he is still alive or whether he is a human being at all ("he" might be a group of developers and cryptography experts or even a whole agency like the NSA). On the other hand, you can still estimate pretty close to real numbers the amount of coins which can be said as lost for good. I refer to dust in wallets which is no longer collectible, i.e. which you can't withdraw since the fees are too high. I guess this number can be assessed pretty accurately and reliably via analyzing the Bitcoin blockchain (and someone might have already done this)

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November 03, 2017, 09:09:05 AM
 #169

This will go untill BTC reaches its 3rd wave peak, afterwards BTC will begin to fall and alts will regain the momentum IMO
That is happening from past 9 years. So many times, bitcoin was regulated in huge race of dips. At that time even the experience traders were afraid of what is happening but they had a trust in bitcoin. And this trust has gained by showing the audience when bitcoin revived again and again. Better profits for bitcoin now, and you will be amazed to see the progress in upcoming years.
we have got ATH several times this year , it was really something unexpected.

it is not because of the fork only , but at the same time it is the time for bitcoin to increase the rates. as the demand keep growing and really rare to see a lot of bitcoin mined nowadays make the price skyrocketing amazingly.
                  I actually think that's one of the reasons why bitcoin's price was skyrocketing or rising, and as i can also see that maybe before this year ends it will maybe set another all time high for bitcoin. I will just sit back and watch, also this upcoming fork bothers me a lot, i think it will also have a huge impact about the price.

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November 03, 2017, 10:21:07 AM
 #170

because of the fork that altcoin holder trade their altcoin to bitcoin and it increase the demand of the bitcoin and decrease the demand it altcoin. since the beginning bitcoin is already getting the momentum and dominance that is why it can survive until now.
I don’t really know how that’s going to play out, but my mind keeps telling me there might be a crash in price rate. I didn’t even know when the Bitcoin Gold fork was carried out, I was thinking it would be on November16th but never knew that November was meant for Bitcoin segwit2×. Just opened my wallet the other day after an update and surprisingly there was Bitcoin Gold in it.

Now this got me thinking whether there will actually be a decrease in price after the next hard fork, cause Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Gold showed no sign of making a decrease on main Bitcoin price rate.

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November 03, 2017, 10:32:52 AM
 #171

I think bitcoin regaining dominance since the first hardfork, the result of the hardfork is quite valuable so people expecting another free coin from the next hardfork and causing the demand volume to increase pretty quick and high, in the end bitcoin will still dominating because all of the alt coins exchange token is btc, so no matter how great an alt coin it will never beat bitcoin dominance

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November 03, 2017, 02:39:38 PM
 #172

Bitcoin is regaining dominance, yes. It always does if you look back in time. Bitcoin is a deflationary currency which means that the supply that is being distributed every 10 minutes via the blockchain where miners receive a reward, that is halved every four years and it started of with 50BTC in 2009. Now it is 7.25 for a block reward, but the miners that hash also get fees from transactions as well.

So far Bitcoin is inflationary

Though you could in fact claim that many coins get lost everyday and thus the real number of bitcoins available for trading or other uses is gradually diminishing. But ultimately this is irrelevant. What matters is real adoption, and if there is none, no amount of scarcity (if i can say so) will help Bitcoin. It is not enough to be scarce, Bitcoin (or anything else, for that matter) should also be useful for some real purpose. Speculation gives Bitcoin which some would call value, speculative value, but how long will it last on speculation alone?
Is it in any way possible to estimate how many coins have been lost accurately?

No, I don't think so

All your estimates would be rather vague and prone to huge errors. For example, would you consider 1M bitcoins which Satoshi has as lost? We don't even know who is Satoshi, let alone if he is still alive or whether he is a human being at all ("he" might be a group of developers and cryptography experts or even a whole agency like the NSA). On the other hand, you can still estimate pretty close to real numbers the amount of coins which can be said as lost for good. I refer to dust in wallets which is no longer collectible, i.e. which you can't withdraw since the fees are too high. I guess this number can be assessed pretty accurately and reliably via analyzing the Bitcoin blockchain (and someone might have already done this)
I was aware of people losing their private keys left and right but I never really considered dusty wallets. If we actually end up reaching 200 Million users as projected by some institutes, the dust could easily add up to anywhere from a few hundred to a few hundred thousand Bitcoins lost if my estimates aren't too far off.
Wonder what the real number for both cases (lost keys and dust) are. If a large amount of coins was lost that could significantly lower the real market cap and thus help with reaching some of the astronomical predictions made.

So many factors are driving the prices, I wonder if anyone with serious computing power and expertise actually modelled the crypto market already.

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November 05, 2017, 08:39:38 AM
 #173

Apart from reaching a new ATH, bitcoin is also regaining dominance vs other alts. It was halved between March and June and bitcoin has been slowly regaining it but lately seems to have received a boost.



Source: (https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage)

Any ideas about why this is happening?

The recent cause for bitcoin to go up after the bitcoin gold hardfork is that a stock exchange has decided to list bitcoin in the future and there is crazy demand for bitcoin at the moment ,another hardfork is also coming up which is legit on November 3rd week,so there is demand for bitcoin more than that of altcoins. Bitcoin has been dominating since forever ,so no surprise in that.

The stock exchange of bitcoin I presume. Future of bitcoin will be great  if all the stocks exchange will enter blockchain technology in a single frame. So excited to be a bitcoin fanatic until now.

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November 05, 2017, 09:00:41 AM
 #174

15 days have passed since I opened this post. I've just had a look at the dominance graph again and it keeps widening, favoring bitcoin. Ethereum has been constantly losing dominance against it. All coins have, apart from bitcoin cash, but not in a relevant percentage as it stands at 5%.

At present, bitcoin has 62%, more than 4 times as much as its biggest competitor, ethereum.

Do you think this will change after Segwit2x fork?

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November 05, 2017, 04:08:00 PM
 #175

15 days have passed since I opened this post. I've just had a look at the dominance graph again and it keeps widening, favoring bitcoin. Ethereum has been constantly losing dominance against it. All coins have, apart from bitcoin cash, but not in a relevant percentage as it stands at 5%.

At present, bitcoin has 62%, more than 4 times as much as its biggest competitor, ethereum.

Do you think this will change after Segwit2x fork?
That's very hard to answer.

If S2x makes the network much faster and cheaper to use, it could be possible that people would jump on Bitcoin even quicker than before, thus increasing the price. It's also possible that the Bitcoin profits will be cashed out and shifted into fiat and altcoins instead while waiting for the next rally.

In reality it will be a mix of the two and then some, and the course of Bitcoin will depend on which "flow" is stronger at the time.

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November 05, 2017, 04:33:40 PM
 #176

The position of the bitcoin has not changed so far, so it's just not stable in the market. But now it is different when its value increases continuously and gradually becomes popular with the people. In addition, although there is a great deal of bans from hardcore, Bitcoin is still evolving and prompting them to rethink adopting Bitcoin as a true currency.

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November 05, 2017, 07:51:51 PM
 #177

Is it in any way possible to estimate how many coins have been lost accurately?

No, I don't think so

All your estimates would be rather vague and prone to huge errors. For example, would you consider 1M bitcoins which Satoshi has as lost? We don't even know who is Satoshi, let alone if he is still alive or whether he is a human being at all ("he" might be a group of developers and cryptography experts or even a whole agency like the NSA). On the other hand, you can still estimate pretty close to real numbers the amount of coins which can be said as lost for good. I refer to dust in wallets which is no longer collectible, i.e. which you can't withdraw since the fees are too high. I guess this number can be assessed pretty accurately and reliably via analyzing the Bitcoin blockchain (and someone might have already done this)
I was aware of people losing their private keys left and right but I never really considered dusty wallets. If we actually end up reaching 200 Million users as projected by some institutes, the dust could easily add up to anywhere from a few hundred to a few hundred thousand Bitcoins lost if my estimates aren't too far off.
Wonder what the real number for both cases (lost keys and dust) are. If a large amount of coins was lost that could significantly lower the real market cap and thus help with reaching some of the astronomical predictions made.

So many factors are driving the prices, I wonder if anyone with serious computing power and expertise actually modelled the crypto market already.

In fact, you don't need a supercomputer for this

You just need to understand how markets work in general and how scarcity affects utility in particular to foresee what's going to happen in the future. I extensively wrote about one such scenario in the past, when Bitcoin was worth less than 1,000 dollars per coin, and so far my theory seems to be proving itself correct. You can search the forum for the Big Rip theory of Bitcoin if you are interested. Though this is likely not what you would want to learn (a spoiler: this might not end very good)

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November 05, 2017, 08:00:00 PM
 #178

Is it in any way possible to estimate how many coins have been lost accurately?

No, I don't think so

All your estimates would be rather vague and prone to huge errors. For example, would you consider 1M bitcoins which Satoshi has as lost? We don't even know who is Satoshi, let alone if he is still alive or whether he is a human being at all ("he" might be a group of developers and cryptography experts or even a whole agency like the NSA). On the other hand, you can still estimate pretty close to real numbers the amount of coins which can be said as lost for good. I refer to dust in wallets which is no longer collectible, i.e. which you can't withdraw since the fees are too high. I guess this number can be assessed pretty accurately and reliably via analyzing the Bitcoin blockchain (and someone might have already done this)
I was aware of people losing their private keys left and right but I never really considered dusty wallets. If we actually end up reaching 200 Million users as projected by some institutes, the dust could easily add up to anywhere from a few hundred to a few hundred thousand Bitcoins lost if my estimates aren't too far off.
Wonder what the real number for both cases (lost keys and dust) are. If a large amount of coins was lost that could significantly lower the real market cap and thus help with reaching some of the astronomical predictions made.

So many factors are driving the prices, I wonder if anyone with serious computing power and expertise actually modelled the crypto market already.

In fact, you don't need a supercomputer for this

You just need to understand how markets work in general and how scarcity affects utility in particular to foresee what's going to happen in the future. I extensively wrote about one such scenario in the past, when Bitcoin was worth less than 1,000 dollars per coin, and so far my theory seems to be proving itself correct. You can search the forum for the Big Rip theory of Bitcoin if you are interested. Though this is likely not what you would want to learn (a spoiler: this might not end very good)
The only post that comes up for me is about the "Large Bitcoin Collider", which doesn't seem to be it. Do you happen to have a link by any chance?

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November 07, 2017, 05:52:03 AM
 #179

This will go untill BTC reaches its 3rd wave peak, afterwards BTC will begin to fall and alts will regain the momentum IMO
If you talk about the development and importance of bitcoin then yes it is developing and gaining dominance day by day and if bitcoin reaches to the top in progress than it can't fall back easily but is nearly impossible for it to fall. According to my point of view it can maintain its position on the top and can't fall down as that easy as you think about bitcoin.

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November 07, 2017, 07:07:37 AM
 #180

15 days have passed since I opened this post. I've just had a look at the dominance graph again and it keeps widening, favoring bitcoin. Ethereum has been constantly losing dominance against it. All coins have, apart from bitcoin cash, but not in a relevant percentage as it stands at 5%.

At present, bitcoin has 62%, more than 4 times as much as its biggest competitor, ethereum.

Do you think this will change after Segwit2x fork?
Bitcoin has defeated eth in all aspects and many of people have already cashed out their money from eth and invested into btc and more of it the main thing is acceptance and now many regions are accepting this coin and many of the stores are getting this as payment and that is for sure thing that it will be 100 time leading to the eth and all other coin and this is just happening because of investor believe and faith,



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