We going back to $30

[solex]

But we have already had that! It bottomed at $54.25, then some days afterwards also at $50.01
Anyone wanting to buy below $60 should be fully loaded up.

I never said I agreed we would see a repeat of 2011, just explained how it would play out if we did.  I've got a little more fiat to deploy, but I'm happy if it rises from here.  If the bears find some favor, that's cool with me too.

Indeed, yes.
But it seems that the recent $50 is an inconvenient truth for some. The 2011 deflate took six months, the 3-day or weekly charts show a beautiful decline arc which terminates at the $2. The 2013 deflate is very different, with wild oscillations around the median of about $110. Perhaps the 2013 deflate is pretty much worked out already (after 2 months).

[Frozenlock]

While I'm still in bear mode, I would gladly welcome a return to an upward trend.

[solex]

While I'm still in bear mode, I would gladly welcome a return to an upward trend.

Me too.
I have been wondering if some of the recent weakness is because the block rewards have been churning out at a very fast pace for several weeks especially since BFL has been shipping.
https://blockchain.info/stats
Instead of the expected 3600 coins per day there is 4000-5000
(I know that many are saved - not automatically sold)

[hl5460]

Bottom line should be around 75 USD.

[samson]

$40 is impossible :-).  There are only 11M btc now and too much investors/speculators/believers(500k ?) for such a small amount.

The price was around / under $15 for months until January yet now it's impossible.

The more I read people saying it's impossible the more inclined I am to believe that it is possible.

[freedomno1]

$40 is impossible :-).  There are only 11M btc now and too much investors/speculators/believers(500k ?) for such a small amount.

The price was around / under $15 for months until January yet now it's impossible.

The more I read people saying it's impossible the more inclined I am to believe that it is possible.

Anti-Miracles happen once in a while if you believe

[ElectricMucus]

I'd say if 80 falls then 50 falls, 40 doesn't even hold any special significance other than being below 50.
50 had significance, that's where the rally encountered the heaviest resistance.

[bitcon]

for the first time in years im feeling bearish. time to stock up on honey. ....and prickly pears.

[247saver]

Anyone noticed the prices that physical casascius coins are still going for on ebay ... ?

Perhaps an indicator of the broader market?

Or maybe wishful thinking on my part.

[notme]

Anyone noticed the prices that physical casascius coins are still going for on ebay ... ?

Perhaps an indicator of the broader market?

Or maybe wishful thinking on my part.

I don't see any with bids

[Loozik]

no impossible

Why not?

[AliceWonder]

$40 is impossible :-).  There are only 11M btc now and too much investors/speculators/believers(500k ?) for such a small amount.

The price was around / under $15 for months until January yet now it's impossible.

The more I read people saying it's impossible the more inclined I am to believe that it is possible.

++

[247saver]

Anyone noticed the prices that physical casascius coins are still going for on ebay ... ?

Perhaps an indicator of the broader market?

Or maybe wishful thinking on my part.

I don't see any with bids

Ouch!

[theGECK]

Bitcoin was worth something back when others would only pay $.40/BTC. Bitcoin will be useful as an agreed upon value of currency regardless of the exchange rate to other currencies. Bitcoin wasn't created as something to be pegged to the dollar, but as a separate currency all together. Even if you can't change it into USD, it will still have value and will always be useful.

[SOSLOVE868]

Bitcoin was worth something back when others would only pay $.40/BTC. Bitcoin will be useful as an agreed upon value of currency regardless of the exchange rate to other currencies. Bitcoin wasn't created as something to be pegged to the dollar, but as a separate currency all together. Even if you can't change it into USD, it will still have value and will always be useful.

Agreed ,you can buy cloths over bitfash.com and even buy car and lot of other stuffs, this mean the value is slowly backed by physical items..

[jubalix]

I predict a bottoming out of the latest downtrend at around 50-80 followed by a return to at or near 100.  That will be followed by a slow grind down to 10-30 dollars and then a rebound to 30-50 that will be maintained for months or years (assuming BTC is not being supplanted by a superior coin, if that happens I see single dollar values).

Remember long term sustainable prices are dictated by the amount of dollars willing to CONTINUOUSLY flow into purchase of new coins, 30 dollars represents the original bubble price adjusted for the new 25 coin block rewards.  120 dollars would have required a half million dollars a day to sustain which is far more then could be asked of the current user base.

not quite, as more people accept BTC for work and goods, it attains an intrinsic value, independent of being pegged to the USDother currencies, and we are only at the very beginning of this


why 1/2 mill a day?...a lot of people wear the cost of production, seigniorage for later percived gains

I think the $100 floor will be hit in 6-5 months max

[mp420]

not quite, as more people accept BTC for work and goods, it attains an intrinsic value, independent of being pegged to the USDother currencies, and we are only at the very beginning of this

The exchange of BTC for work and goods only requires the value to be a couple of dollars at current levels. The pure transactional function of money does not require a whole lot of money to be around.

Looking at the number of transactions per day, we're at January's level at the moment, and BTC was about $15 in January. So, the current level of transactional activity can certainly be sustained at $15, keeping in mind that by far most of the activity was speculative even in January.

[smoothie]

usually when someone or the CROWD says "we are going to XX price" then be rest assured we will be going to XX + YY price. Just above that price. That is if we trend that far down...who knows.