Bitcoin $250000 by 2020 if the seven year trend continues

[asmythirl]

BitGo Software Engineer Jameson Lopp revealed that if the seven-year trend of Bitcoin price continues, Bitcoin will be valued at around $250,000 by 2020.

Lopp calculated the seven-year trend of Bitcoin price based on daily value change. With the exception of 2014, which was affected by the downfall of now-defunct Mt. Gox, Bitcoin has continuously recorded positive daily value change since 2010.

Bitcoin average DAILY value change:
2010: +0.82%
2011: +0.76%
2012: +0.26%
2013: +1.11%
2014: -0.25%
2015: +0.09%
2016: +0.22%
2017: +0.66%

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-will-hit-250000-by-2020-if-seven-year-trend-continues

https://cointelegraph.com/images/725_Ly9jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS9zdG9yYWdlL3VwbG9hZHMvdmlldy9jN2U2MWRhYjUxNDgwZjVjMzQ2ZmQ2ZTJiMzYxNzFkZC5qcGc=.jpg

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[HabBear]

This sounds completely ridiculous!

But I know the math isn't off. It's interesting to see it phrased as "average daily value change". I like that, particularly for something as volatile as Bitcoin.

What's not clear in what you posted is what the net change is year over year, which is what actually dictates the angle of the trend that reaching $250,000 in the next 3 years would depend upon.

I've read into the article and the the Lopp is claiming:

This, of course, assumes that Bitcoin price will increase at an average rate of 0.42 percent on a daily basis.

This is the rate we need to maintain to reach $250,000. Wild, wild times!

[odolvlobo]

Exponential growth forever is a fallacy.

[HabBear]

Exponential growth forever is a fallacy.

Yeah, this is a good point. And the data being shared shows that as well. Trends are only good for past performance views. They're only as good for future prediction until they day they aren't, which can't be predicted.

At some point growth will slow.

The unknown question is whether that will happen soon (before 2020 for the purpose of this discussion) or after. Only time will tell.

[philipma1957]

Just look at 2014  and remember that could be 2018

[ecoicelandcoin]

Exponential growth forever is a fallacy. Is a big problem

[GreenBits]

This sounds completely ridiculous!

But I know the math isn't off. It's interesting to see it phrased as "average daily value change". I like that, particularly for something as volatile as Bitcoin.

What's not clear in what you posted is what the net change is year over year, which is what actually dictates the angle of the trend that reaching $250,000 in the next 3 years would depend upon.

I've read into the article and the the Lopp is claiming:

This, of course, assumes that Bitcoin price will increase at an average rate of 0.42 percent on a daily basis.

This is the rate we need to maintain to reach $250,000. Wild, wild times!

 

And if we ever saw that much unchecked growth, we would be doomed when the guys that brought in at 100 said "fuck it" and decided to liquidate.

I support the math, but not as it is presented. like you said,trying to assign any static rate of "value change"  is retarded. im assuming that he didnt price in any real margin of error (as we obviously would experience at least one major prolonged retraction per year). The government would go ape shit; they cant have that much untaxed value creation. shit would go off the chain with that much transfer of wealth. the status quo would be upended

from a meta, however, this just seems zany. its like we have lost our good sense regarding price; i refuse to purchase these fuckers at this price level with fiat. ill earn them all day. but ill be damned if I pay a premium on what I know is just hype.

[edynolan]

I think this is a bit impossible for the price as you say, we can see from your data that the price in 2014 is down so maybe next year or before 2020 the price may go down, in the calculation it may happen but we can not guess The future what price which will appear on bitcoin

[alaeddine1azer]

i actually never in my life thought that btc will reach $500 
and look at it now, it seems possible  & only time can tell

[stompix]

Ok , let's assume this growth will continue and we will reach 250 000$ by 2020.
Although it does sound kind of rpietlilish it is of course not impossible to actually become true.

But if this model is correct why do we assume it's going to stop exactly in 2020?
So, if we expect a x50 growth in the next three years why not another x50 in the next 3 also?
And of course we might reach 625000000 by 2026.
Fell free to calculate how much a BTC would be worth in 2050.

Besides I really don't like how Gox was blamed for the downtrend but the author easily forgets that the WillyBot was also guilty for the rush to over 1k.

LE:
I really have to save this image as it seems I need it everyday:

[mysacrifice]

nothing grows steadily and nothing keep on becoming less steadily. so despite math is right, logic is wrong. it is like oceans, think like tides, tidal flow.

[khan149]

In my opinion, Bitcoin will not be so expensive.Because of the price increases all the time, but not right.Bitcoin prices will be reduced at a time.But now I'm just waiting for the time.

[rwrayen]

Bitcoin $250000 by 2020 hhh imposibl! 

[Merptastic]

I mean it'll either end up plateauing or crashing. Exponential growth can usually indicate some kind of price bubble.

Also if you really think it will continue to grow in an exponential growth, good luck trying to sell the coin at that price.

[Pleione527]

I would like to think that bitcoin can possibly reach $250,000 but it will only happen if full adaptation of bitcoin will be implemented to majority of countries because that would only mean that the demand will surely increase which cannot sustain by the limited supply of bitcoin. But if the demand will not grow that much I don't bitcoin can soar this price and might remain in this price gap.

[arbitrage001]

More likely scenario would be there will be more "specialized coin" geared toward different industries.

[Fievel]

Of course it won't keep rising exponentially forever. But what I don't get, is how many of you deem $250.000 to be impossible. That would only equal a market cap of roughly $4.6 trillion; gold sits at $8.2 trillion, all stock markets $66.8 trillion.

If someone told you it was going to be worth $6000 when it was at $0.05, wouldn't that have sounded equally "impossible"? $250.000 by 2020 is very possible once mass adoption happens and the big guys (wall street, major banks, etc) enter the market.

[fabiorem]

250k USD per BTC is very reasonable.

I hope that at least some of the whales have good hearts and put this money to good use, founding new enterprises that will shake the current establishment.

Bitcoin valuation is the corrosion of the modern "democratic" State, the model which sprang from the French Revolution, and which is heavily dependent on debt. The more this outdated model corrodes, the more bitcoin will go up.

[Malamok101]

If you want you can buy bitcoins now and stock it but for me its impossible

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I agree with most replies. That price seems virtually impossible, but I think the main problem here is that it only takes maths into account and not what could happen in the real world. Bans, regulation, mass adoption, forks, alts gaining dominance... there are so many events that can affect price that to take only maths into account is like building castles in the air.