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Author Topic: Any idea on why the -20% of today ?  (Read 4059 times)
DPoS
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June 09, 2013, 03:10:37 PM
 #21

It's a pity that I need to use sepa transfers that take quite some time to be executed or I would buy right now !
Price is going slowly going back up, I hope the manipulator will not hit again.

If you check http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com and select H4 and zoom out (scroll down) on the chart all the way you can see the 6/7 dumping pattern quite clearly. If this were just someone selling off their BTC this would be the worst way to do it, you would sell off gradually over time to get the best price.

you have a lot of big  piles re-upping into more chips/miners for the second wave of chasing coin

These early players made their fortune mining so that is all they know..  there needs to be an ecology for btc so there is less need to exchange out.  right now the Avalon chips sales and kncminer and probably bitfury all will need to convert asap so they can manufacture.

you will certainly get a fast dump if they are trying to beat the other ones to the punch.  Then you have miners that may have a big pile who are going to frontrun this situation as well..

too many public disclosures of impending transactions.... so..  BTFD!


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June 09, 2013, 03:24:57 PM
 #22

You don't lose 'money' unless you sell. You still have all your BTC, its a good time to buy. Smiley


Great logic.  Still holds if BTC crashes to $0.  Unless you sell, you've lost nothing Cheesy
Tamis (OP)
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June 09, 2013, 03:36:01 PM
 #23

Price is going slowly going back up, I hope the manipulator will not hit again.
Hope will get you nowhere, and you'll end up losing money either way.

You shouldn't have invested more than you afforded to lose.


I can lose all that I have invested !
I don't understand your intervention...
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June 09, 2013, 03:41:06 PM
 #24

It's a pity that I need to use sepa transfers that take quite some time to be executed or I would buy right now !
Price is going slowly going back up, I hope the manipulator will not hit again.

If you check http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com and select H4 and zoom out (scroll down) on the chart all the way you can see the 6/7 dumping pattern quite clearly. If this were just someone selling off their BTC this would be the worst way to do it, you would sell off gradually over time to get the best price.

Ah, but thats not the point for them. Their goal isn't to get the most fiat out of the sell. What they do is drop the price by selling a large amount of bitcoins for fiat. However, they they buy them all back up at the lower price when everyone else freaks out. The market price slowly recovers and they can do it again.

Yes this is what I meant. It's not someone selling off their BTC for cash, just trying to play the market and shake weak hands out of their BTC. They clearly have a bullish position in the market which I take as a strong signal  Wink

How could you possibly know this? The only thing we know is that this dumper has (had?) a lot of BTC, and sold it for USD. What his motives are are pure speculation. Don't act like you know more about them.
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June 09, 2013, 03:46:18 PM
 #25

It's a pity that I need to use sepa transfers that take quite some time to be executed or I would buy right now !
Price is going slowly going back up, I hope the manipulator will not hit again.

If you check http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com and select H4 and zoom out (scroll down) on the chart all the way you can see the 6/7 dumping pattern quite clearly. If this were just someone selling off their BTC this would be the worst way to do it, you would sell off gradually over time to get the best price.

Ah, but thats not the point for them. Their goal isn't to get the most fiat out of the sell. What they do is drop the price by selling a large amount of bitcoins for fiat. However, they they buy them all back up at the lower price when everyone else freaks out. The market price slowly recovers and they can do it again.

Yes this is what I meant. It's not someone selling off their BTC for cash, just trying to play the market and shake weak hands out of their BTC. They clearly have a bullish position in the market which I take as a strong signal  Wink

How could you possibly know this? The only thing we know is that this dumper has (had?) a lot of BTC, and sold it for USD. What his motives are are pure speculation. Don't act like you know more about them.


are you in a cave??  you have a whole wave of miner coins going into new miners for fabrication..  those companies do not take btc to make chips/boards

either one of them are settling to put in their orders or someone is frontrunning them first and cashing out

it will get worse, since panics make more panics and then even when things settle and the new wave of miners make coins... they gotta square up their ROI right??  more selling

there needs to be more REASONS to buy..  not just banker fiat scares.  And then less reasons to sell, as in use btc more than just exchange to fiat. 
THEN there is the next layer, even if merchants come on board, they have to either use btc for other parts of their business expenses or they will have to exchange oiut.. so that is just one layer of ecology, not much defense. 

Who is going to step up and provide business services and supplies in btc?  that is what will begin more stability


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June 09, 2013, 03:55:31 PM
 #26

It's a pity that I need to use sepa transfers that take quite some time to be executed or I would buy right now !
Price is going slowly going back up, I hope the manipulator will not hit again.

If you check http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com and select H4 and zoom out (scroll down) on the chart all the way you can see the 6/7 dumping pattern quite clearly. If this were just someone selling off their BTC this would be the worst way to do it, you would sell off gradually over time to get the best price.

Ah, but thats not the point for them. Their goal isn't to get the most fiat out of the sell. What they do is drop the price by selling a large amount of bitcoins for fiat. However, they they buy them all back up at the lower price when everyone else freaks out. The market price slowly recovers and they can do it again.

Yes this is what I meant. It's not someone selling off their BTC for cash, just trying to play the market and shake weak hands out of their BTC. They clearly have a bullish position in the market which I take as a strong signal  Wink

How could you possibly know this? The only thing we know is that this dumper has (had?) a lot of BTC, and sold it for USD. What his motives are are pure speculation. Don't act like you know more about them.


are you in a cave??  you have a whole wave of miner coins going into new miners for fabrication..  those companies do not take btc to make chips/boards

either one of them are settling to put in their orders or someone is frontrunning them first and cashing out

it will get worse, since panics make more panics and then even when things settle and the new wave of miners make coins... they gotta square up their ROI right??  more selling

there needs to be more REASONS to buy..  not just banker fiat scares.  And then less reasons to sell, as in use btc more than just exchange to fiat. 
THEN there is the next layer, even if merchants come on board, they have to either use btc for other parts of their business expenses or they will have to exchange oiut.. so that is just one layer of ecology, not much defense. 

Who is going to step up and provide business services and supplies in btc?  that is what will begin more stability



This is the Avalon address that holds all the BTC they received as payment for their chip orders:

https://blockchain.info/address/1FGAftzSTztFSB8LMwsrdCKTyqGY6zr3sU

They haven't cashed out.  Also, this post indicates they aren't dumping their BTC to the market in a typical fashion:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=227103.msg2399090#msg2399090

Quote
BitSyncom

lastly, food for though:

who says we control that address in the first place?

DPoS
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June 09, 2013, 04:06:46 PM
 #27

It's a pity that I need to use sepa transfers that take quite some time to be executed or I would buy right now !
Price is going slowly going back up, I hope the manipulator will not hit again.

If you check http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com and select H4 and zoom out (scroll down) on the chart all the way you can see the 6/7 dumping pattern quite clearly. If this were just someone selling off their BTC this would be the worst way to do it, you would sell off gradually over time to get the best price.

Ah, but thats not the point for them. Their goal isn't to get the most fiat out of the sell. What they do is drop the price by selling a large amount of bitcoins for fiat. However, they they buy them all back up at the lower price when everyone else freaks out. The market price slowly recovers and they can do it again.

Yes this is what I meant. It's not someone selling off their BTC for cash, just trying to play the market and shake weak hands out of their BTC. They clearly have a bullish position in the market which I take as a strong signal  Wink

How could you possibly know this? The only thing we know is that this dumper has (had?) a lot of BTC, and sold it for USD. What his motives are are pure speculation. Don't act like you know more about them.


are you in a cave??  you have a whole wave of miner coins going into new miners for fabrication..  those companies do not take btc to make chips/boards

either one of them are settling to put in their orders or someone is frontrunning them first and cashing out

it will get worse, since panics make more panics and then even when things settle and the new wave of miners make coins... they gotta square up their ROI right??  more selling

there needs to be more REASONS to buy..  not just banker fiat scares.  And then less reasons to sell, as in use btc more than just exchange to fiat. 
THEN there is the next layer, even if merchants come on board, they have to either use btc for other parts of their business expenses or they will have to exchange oiut.. so that is just one layer of ecology, not much defense. 

Who is going to step up and provide business services and supplies in btc?  that is what will begin more stability



This is the Avalon address that holds all the BTC they received as payment for their chip orders:

https://blockchain.info/address/1FGAftzSTztFSB8LMwsrdCKTyqGY6zr3sU

They haven't cashed out.  Also, this post indicates they aren't dumping their BTC to the market in a typical fashion:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=227103.msg2399090#msg2399090

Quote
BitSyncom

lastly, food for though:

who says we control that address in the first place?

That is my point.. there are people that KNOW this now front and center (without speculating) that there are a pile of bitcoins that have to turn into cash at somepoint or lest you think those chips get created for free?  Or they take btc and sit on them as payment?

Add that to the other new wave of miner creation and you have the stage set for some frontrunning.

I bought a few at $94 and will probably sell at this recent bump since more pain is coming


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Tamis (OP)
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June 09, 2013, 04:09:43 PM
 #28

If you watched the vidéo you would know it is not someone cashing out, or a very VERY stupid person.
This is really not the best way to cash out. No someone did this intentionally, watch the video !
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June 09, 2013, 04:10:13 PM
 #29

Hope will get you nowhere, and you'll end up losing money either way.

You shouldn't have invested more than you afforded to lose.


I can lose all that I have invested !
I don't understand your intervention...
You complained you had to pay back a loan, so no you can't lose your investment, hence my post.

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Tamis (OP)
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June 09, 2013, 04:16:51 PM
 #30

Hope will get you nowhere, and you'll end up losing money either way.

You shouldn't have invested more than you afforded to lose.


I can lose all that I have invested !
I don't understand your intervention...
You complained you had to pay back a loan, so no you can't lose your investment, hence my post.


I complained I have a payment to send and it is not at a good timing.
That does not mean I cannot afford to lose this money but that I would be pissed to lose it.

Let's try to keep on the subject of the thread please Smiley
DPoS
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June 09, 2013, 04:17:42 PM
 #31

If you watched the vidéo you would know it is not someone cashinh out, or a very VERY stupid person.
This is really not the best way to cash out. No someone did this intentionally, watch the video !

you still dont get it.

if there was no impending settlements on new chips/miners going into production then you would be correct.  Someone would cash out smoother.  Or this would be an attempt to slam down the price.

But this screams of frontrunning KNOWN settlements that have deadlines for purchases.  

Read up on frontrunning.  

There will be a lot of volatility in the next 6 months,  first wave you are seeing now and will continue until all these new chips/miners are shipping to customers and then a pause then all the new miners chase their ROI before the other guy..  next spring it should settledown a bit.

It would be a good time now to get into the marketplace of accepting bitcoins for business if you can withstand the chaos..  or set up a VIX to trade on it.. lol



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June 09, 2013, 06:01:16 PM
 #32

You should try to time your sells so that when you need to pay those bills, you'we got enough in fiat.

You could off course hope that this is a shot-lived dip. But if the price goes under $80, the trend will most likely be downwards for a few months.

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June 09, 2013, 06:33:26 PM
Last edit: June 09, 2013, 07:29:24 PM by Tamis
 #33

We are at 98 usd/btc atm.

I'm fairly confident that it willl continue to go back up since we did not assist in massive panic sells.

edit : 101
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June 09, 2013, 09:51:41 PM
 #34

It'll soon be Monday and the banks will be open again after the weekend with lots of new money flowing into exchanges to buy bitcoins. 

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June 09, 2013, 09:52:59 PM
 #35

BTCs were sold to pre-order ASIC mining equipment from kncminer

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June 09, 2013, 11:53:16 PM
 #36

You don't lose 'money' unless you sell. You still have all your BTC, its a good time to buy. Smiley


This is not true. You're losing money even if you don't cashout.

Bitcoin has really high volatility, if you can't deal -20% (just "normal" swing) is better you stay out.

Quote
BTCs were sold to pre-order ASIC mining equipment from kncminer

You're right. I don't understand why all ASIC mining equipment sellers don't accept only btc. This would be better for bitcoin economy, and also for them....
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June 10, 2013, 01:30:12 AM
 #37

Hey,

Sorry to hear about this. There is a guy on twitter @SirBitsALot who thinks that it is deliberate price manipulation, checkout his videos on the right https://twitter.com/SirBitsALot

The best way to defend against this kind of behaviour is to have more exchanges. All the worst things about Bitcoin come from the surrounding centralised components like Gox. The work that has to be done now is P2P and open source exchanges.

Anyone have an challenges or thoughts?

It already exists, localbitcoins

But what you want merchants to do?  Most have to exchange out right away after selling you something.  If we want the price to be more stable than there has to be a bigger ecology for BTC.  Where there is less rush to exchange out

It is Sunday evening in the U.S. where for better or worse a large amount of the btc volume trading is conducted.  Fiat forex markets experience significant volume droughts during weekends as well, nothing unique to the btc world here.  Personally I view this as a buying opportunity for long term holders/investors.

For short term transactions it is unfortunate but if you immediately cashed out following receipt of btc you would not have suffered 20% losses the US$110-US$90 swing occurred over 6 hours on Mt. Gox as you can see from the charts on their website. 
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June 10, 2013, 02:33:11 AM
 #38

I was wondering about this too.  We'll find out tomorrow when the exchanges and regular banks open up again if this is temporary or not.

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June 10, 2013, 02:54:53 AM
 #39

Quote
You shouldn't have invested more than you afforded to lose.

This is the most important thing to consider when investing in anything.
Nothing is a sure bet and no matter how much you knew, everyone gets it wrong sometimes.

Few weeks ago I was pretty convinced I knew where the forex markets were going.
But a tiny hint that the fed may slow down the money printing sent markets reacting far more than I thought they would.
I messed up, I lost quite a bit of money. But it has no effect on my ability to pay my bills because I never depend on investments for living expenses.
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Hello


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June 10, 2013, 03:18:57 AM
 #40

Winkelvoss twins stated they owned xxx amount of btc.... market manipulation et al ... notice the 100,000 coin sell off and 125,000 re-buy... I'm sure their shill accounts will flame me for bringing this idea about.. eh not worried
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