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Author Topic: Confused about 2x and the 1:1 coin ownership after fork  (Read 1800 times)
BillyBobZorton
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October 31, 2017, 07:11:08 PM
 #21


Meh. You're expecting people to put ideology before their finances. That's not a rational expectation. I noticed that the everyone who was promoting BIP148 is now promoting NO2X. Given how little visible support BIP148 had (nodes, major economic nodes, miners), I believe that both sides are just very loud minorities, at least with regard to what users want.

I don't expect that, which is why I expect 2x to fail, since people that matter (holders) are going to dump their coins in order to stop the fork, which will force miners to stop mining the 2x chain unless they want to go bankrupt.


Given the S-curve of technology adoption, most users don't even understand Bitcoin. It's absurd to think that most users therefore have a strong opinion about contentious forks and will automatically dump the 2X coins. The culture of hodling is strong, especially considering that most people make terrible traders.

I think that most people would hodl both coins given the chance. And even though I'm opposed to 2X, I would never ideologically dump coins. My primary life goal right now is to accumulate BTC; I'm not going to risk being on the wrong side of the market. I'm a trader/investor, not a warrior or a shill.

Im talking about users that matter (holders that run their own nodes to control what their transaction is doing). These users care about not turning Bitcoin into Paypal 2.0, which is why they will fight forks to no end, and believe me, there's billions worth of BTC ready to fight corporate takeovers such as the 2x one. If you don't do anything, then I guess you don't care if some day corporations come up with a fork that will raise the 21 million limit, for example.

I think it's because they need to leverage SPV users in order for the fork to be relevant. Web wallets and SPV wallets like blockchain.info represent a lot of users on the network.

Which is why SPV users aren't part of Bitcoin. Coinbase and co can't claim their users are supporting 2x (which is what Coinbase, Xapo, and all these crooks are saying) when they don't know what any of this means.
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marky89
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October 31, 2017, 08:31:01 PM
 #22

I don't expect that, which is why I expect 2x to fail, since people that matter (holders) are going to dump their coins in order to stop the fork, which will force miners to stop mining the 2x chain unless they want to go bankrupt.

Judging by the low volume of the BT1/BT2 market, I'm not sure that's true. I'm sure that diehard supporters of the legacy chain will dump the 2x coins, and I'm sure diehard supporters of the 2x chain will dump legacy coins. And I think there are more of the former than the latter. But that doesn't mean there's enough supply to continually drive the price of B2X down. We don't know that at all.

I think it's because they need to leverage SPV users in order for the fork to be relevant. Web wallets and SPV wallets like blockchain.info represent a lot of users on the network.

Which is why SPV users aren't part of Bitcoin. Coinbase and co can't claim their users are supporting 2x (which is what Coinbase, Xapo, and all these crooks are saying) when they don't know what any of this means.

Well, it doesn't matter whether their users are "supporting" 2x. What matters is their share of network activity, and their custody of user coins. Their users can't verify whether they are using Bitcoin, but currently they are. If they leave the Bitcoin network, that will surely be a big hit to network value per Metcalfe's Law.
lottoken@lottoken.org
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November 01, 2017, 01:58:50 AM
 #23

Is it fair to think about the fork as a different "share class" that many companies have in the market ? And that the price of the coins will always be pegged at 2:1 ratio ?
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November 01, 2017, 04:12:10 AM
 #24

Is it fair to think about the fork as a different "share class" that many companies have in the market ? And that the price of the coins will always be pegged at 2:1 ratio ?
No. That's not how it works at all... The two values are completely independent. Look at what happened with BTC and BCC... The value of BCC plummeted from initial trading and in recent days even went up without affecting BTC value at all

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November 01, 2017, 10:37:38 AM
 #25

Is it fair to think about the fork as a different "share class" that many companies have in the market ? And that the price of the coins will always be pegged at 2:1 ratio ?

No, I wouldn't make that analogy at all. And due to the decentralized nature of the protocols and markets, there is no peg, of course. The ratio (price) is whatever someone else is willing to pay. Currently, B2X contracts are trading at ~15% value and BTC contracts at ~85% value -- these percentages refer to value in a coin split scenario.

People on both sides will be incentivized to support their chain and dump the other. I'm worried that both chains will suffer from the increasing difficulty as we approach the fork. Between the market's exuberance and the rising difficulty into a contentious fork, I'm getting nervous.

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November 01, 2017, 11:48:45 AM
 #26

This is really confusing if you don't know what are the cool features of the new hard fork. Developers are doing what best could be beneficial for investors and everybody. Forks are designed to amend some features of bitcoin that are limited.
Don't assume good intentions.
BillyBobZorton
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November 02, 2017, 06:32:31 PM
 #27

I don't expect that, which is why I expect 2x to fail, since people that matter (holders) are going to dump their coins in order to stop the fork, which will force miners to stop mining the 2x chain unless they want to go bankrupt.

Judging by the low volume of the BT1/BT2 market, I'm not sure that's true. I'm sure that diehard supporters of the legacy chain will dump the 2x coins, and I'm sure diehard supporters of the 2x chain will dump legacy coins. And I think there are more of the former than the latter. But that doesn't mean there's enough supply to continually drive the price of B2X down. We don't know that at all.

I think it's because they need to leverage SPV users in order for the fork to be relevant. Web wallets and SPV wallets like blockchain.info represent a lot of users on the network.

Which is why SPV users aren't part of Bitcoin. Coinbase and co can't claim their users are supporting 2x (which is what Coinbase, Xapo, and all these crooks are saying) when they don't know what any of this means.

Well, it doesn't matter whether their users are "supporting" 2x. What matters is their share of network activity, and their custody of user coins. Their users can't verify whether they are using Bitcoin, but currently they are. If they leave the Bitcoin network, that will surely be a big hit to network value per Metcalfe's Law.


There are way many bitcoins at stake that are pro-1MB legacy chain that those who are willing to sacrifice their 1MB legacy coins for segwit2x chain coins. Just take a look at the bets on twitter. Gmaxwell, Adam Back, Trace Mayer and so on, were talking about making bets as high as 25,000 BTC. Roger Ver was too scared to take it.

About Coinbase users, they can easily lawsuit them no matter how many "terms of conditions" Coinbase comes up. That will waste resources on them.
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November 02, 2017, 08:08:16 PM
 #28

There are way many bitcoins at stake that are pro-1MB legacy chain that those who are willing to sacrifice their 1MB legacy coins for segwit2x chain coins. Just take a look at the bets on twitter. Gmaxwell, Adam Back, Trace Mayer and so on, were talking about making bets as high as 25,000 BTC. Roger Ver was too scared to take it.

While I commend their willingness to put skin in the game, I don't think any of that is meaningful. 25,000 BTC may look like a lot to plebs like us, but it could easily be absorbed by the OTC or exchange markets. It's a drop in the bucket. Like someone said up-thread, the diehard #No2x crowd is louder and likely holds more coins than diehard #2x supporters. But I think they are both just loud minorities anyway. What matters is the meat of the ecosystem, and I wish I knew of good metrics to analyze just how economically relevant the NYA companies are.

In any case, I don't think that Coinbase, Gemini, Bitpay, Blockchain, Xapo, Shapeshift and the other NYA signers are economically irrelevant. If they are calling a different network "Bitcoin" and moving their economic activity to that network, that is significant value leaving Bitcoin. We could be talking about amounts of money that make 25,000 BTC bets look silly.

About Coinbase users, they can easily lawsuit them no matter how many "terms of conditions" Coinbase comes up. That will waste resources on them.

There are no legal precedents here. I suspect that Coinbase has very competent legal counsel, and that as long as they provide their customers with both coins and ample opportunity to make use of both coins, that there will be no grounds for lawsuits.

bigboybitcoin
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November 03, 2017, 11:25:16 AM
 #29

Im sorry as im sure this is answered but the more I read, the more confused I get with terms about splitting and replay tx's etc.

Can somebody help me understand the specific point of holding 1 btc and then having 1 btc and 1 btc2x after fork?

I understand that if I have 1 btc now and hold private key cold storage and dont transact for a few days around fork time.

But what I dont get is where the 1 btc2x is generated from?  Its not a new coin so its not pre-mined, right?

Is it basically down to me choosing to spend either the 1 btc or the 1 btc2x but not having ability to spend both of them?  This would seem to explain alot of the holes I think i have in my understanding.

After the fork, dont they have to become two seperate chains moving forward thus becoming a new altcoin?  Or am I missing something here that somehow wont turn btc2x and btc into 2 chains with 2 coin types after the fork happens?  Miners will be generating rewards on two chains causing generation of new coins on a new chain so i dont see how it would not be an altcoin after the fork occurs.

Is there a huge money risk here for a long-term btc holder that doesnt intend to stop holding?  I think the answer is no, not any more than usual volatile/high-risk of cryptocurrency.  Am I correct that I dont need to make a decision on my favored fork if Im just a long-term holder?  If some of my above understanding is right about the 1:1 coin holding then i think I simply would hold all my btc / btc2x and in 20 years, i could cashout one or the other from my 1 coin example (but not both).  Theres no decision timeline I need to worry about, right?

yes you will get equal ammout of 2x if you hold your coin and if you have your private keys.
See almost all the exchanges out there hold your private key.
So if you have money there its up to the exchage if they want to give you the 2x or not.
Better shift 2x to wallets like electrum and have confirmed b2x.
ravikiran1123
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November 26, 2017, 04:37:55 AM
 #30

when is btc2x fork taking place? i see BCD is already gaining lot of attention although supply volume is massive than BTC core.

thank you all...
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November 26, 2017, 05:24:27 AM
 #31

when is btc2x fork taking place? i see BCD is already gaining lot of attention although supply volume is massive than BTC core.

thank you all...
2x was canceled. Bitcoin Gold, Bitcoin Diamond, Bitcoin Cash, etc. are completely different things.

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November 26, 2017, 03:07:47 PM
 #32

I understand the confusion you have in your mind because many of us are already facing same problem. Many of the users have already answered you, i will try to make it more simple for you to understand.
If you are holding the BTC before the hardfork so you will have both original BTC as well as the alt(e.g B2x) and both are spendable, the B2x will be credited you for free with respect to your holding BTCs.
You are right there are two different chains after the fork but the community's support will decide which one is the king and which one will be treated as an alt, one which will not able to get enough support as compared to the other will be treated as an altcoin.
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