My Prediction Thread

[Abandon]

Here I will post my long, short, and short short-term predictions. This is not trading/investment advice!

I'm likely to make mistakes with my forecasts! As you'll see below! But I hope to learn from those mistakes!

Off-Topic/Addressed/Unimportant posts are subject to being deleted to reduce clutter!

My live charts that I use for TA:
https://www.tradingview.com/e/?clone=dqFoObff

The live charts I use for backup, simplicity, and to see active bid and ask walls:
http://bitcoinwisdom.com/

The live charts that I use to hear noises when there's price action, to observe the walls, and to check recent orders:
http://bitcoinity.org/markets/mtgox/USD

Where I check for news:
Google News | http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/

Sentiment:
http://www.bitcoinscope.com/

Useful information:
http://blockchained.com/

The school I suggest for learning how to trade:
http://www.babypips.com/school/the-big-three.html

Misc:
http://candlestickgenius.com/top-10-candlestick-patterns/
http://whales.clustersense.com/

The exchange I suggest for low fees, leverage and shorting: Bitfinex
The exchange I suggest for liquidity and large fast price movement: Mt. GoX

[g83]

So what is your prediction by now ?

[Abandon]

For the short short-term, this appears to have been a bear trap from around 109 to 106.72, the buy and bid prices were a fair distance from each other before it recovered some, which is a bullish indicator if any. What likely happened was the uncertain traders bought in, as they saw the price gradually rising, but panicked as soon as they saw that the price could go down, which caused a small cascading effect, until the uncertain traders were for the most part all sold. What was left were the more certain traders, who have seen previous price jumps from such gradual falls. This is the pattern that the Cup and Handle pattern often produces shortly after, as we have seen. So far the rises have been faster than the gradual falls, which is bullish sign as well, so long as the market remains unstable with such low volume this behavior will likely continue as with the bear traps.

What I see happening now, is a small consolidation and then a break of the previous high of 110.63, before meeting another resistance at around 112, and then perhaps correcting and consolidating some. Yet it could break past this 112 resistance if the rally is strong enough, in which case the trend switch to the north will be confirmed.

I predict that the long term bear trend is dead, and the bull trend is just starting. Perhaps it will reach higher than 180 relatively quickly, but let's not get our hopes up just yet.

[Abandon]

The consolidation has carried on longer than I expected, with a recent whale dump of 700 coins. So far the price has recovered, as it does with the bounce back pattern. These kind of large sell offs are good for getting rid of the panic sellers, therefore making the market more bullish. The current situation:

[Abandon]

The consolidation has carried on longer than I expected, with a recent whale dump of 700 coins. So far the price has recovered, as it does with the bounce back pattern. These kind of large sell offs are good for getting rid of the panic sellers, therefore making the market more bullish. The current situation:

Wait, wait...

So the more you see sellers, the more bullish you are?

The less sellers there are to panic sell, the more bullish it likely is. The panic sellers are getting burned from selling low, and the buyers rewarded. These falls have to happen frequently, or too many soon to be panic sellers accumulate, who have the potential to set off a landslide.

These falls also have to happen relatively unpredictably or else many people will plan for them to the extent that they don't happen.

If nearly no one is selling below the top of the candle, or below the bottom of the previous candle, fewer bids will get filled, creating demand.

For a move north, there might need to be a gradual fall in order to build up momentum for a large bounce back.

[Abandon]

By the same logic, each time there's a buy, a new potential seller is created.

The burned sellers likely learn to not sell at the lows, and the buyers mostly sell at the top of the candles, or hold without selling.

[Abandon]

My first prediction that it would reach a resistance of around 112 has proven correct, with a high of 112.25. I now predict that the price won't stay below 112.25 for very long before breaking above it, but watch out for bear traps!

This arching movement holds a lot of bullish pressure.

There is some resistance that will likely be broken through at about 115.50, some more resistance at around 120, and then some at 124, and finally 130 - 133.

The 8 week bear has ended, will likely be followed by a 13 week bull

"For every panic sell there is a slow-accumulate, placid, unflappable buy."

[Miz4r]

Active whales have pretty much all dumped already, there's one possible whale dump left who bought at 95-110. Either the whales stay in fiat and hope the remaining large whale left will help crash the price to double digits again, or they give up their bearish hopes and join the bull movement until it's time to dump again at 120-130 or so.

[Abandon]

Current situation:



The indicators are indicating nearly oversold at this moment, so we're due for another rise, but breaking the resistance (the red one primarily) might prove more difficult than I initially thought. If support breaks, we may very well correct somewhere around 100.

[Abandon]

It appears that support was not needed to keep the price up, but a gradual fall is not unfathomably out of the question, yet I think it has a lot of potential to break the resistance now, so much so that that I think it's almost inevitable, therefore my prediction that it will break upward stands. The buy and bid wall are building like crazy. Currently we're bouncing above and below a pivot point.
 
Current situation:

[Abandon]

Update:



Breakout is nigh!

-edit-

The Wall Street Journal: U.S. Regulator: Virtual Currencies Have 'Nothing to Fear'
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323734304578543483082307450.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

[Abandon]

It broke down! And fast, too!

An interesting pattern to look out for in the future:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/three_black_crows.asp

It's hard to say now if this is the bottom.

Yes, there were some thing I should have fully accounted for, such as the change from faster rises to slower rises, and the Three Black Crows pattern near the collapse. So I should be more cautious in the future, and be much less overly confident, or at the very least with my predictions. The time frames are tricky, but I'll try to be more specific.

[Abandon]

I don't predict it breaking past 100. These kind of falls are unsustainable.

It will break past 100 in a few minutes 

It could very well, or perhaps not. The market likes to break past significant numbers, but sometimes if these numbers manage not to get broken, they form strong supports or resistances. I don't see us in a bear trend, so I don't see breaking as very likely.

[Abandon]

We might see a reverse Head and Shoulders pattern.

[Abandon]

This thread should be called "Hopes of Abandon"

LOL
Perception bias abounds in here for sure

Dude, we all suffer from it 

I see something completely different from you right now ... a market that is clinging desperately on to levels it cant hold and ratcheting steadily lower

Keep up the thread ... I always find it interesting to read what other people see in the charts

If you hold any bitcoins, of course you would prefer up.  This opinion will leak into your analysis.  However, I do agree that there needs to be a big increase in downward pressure to keep this thing below 100.

I am trying to do less of that, but listen to this, the chart would actually look better if it went upward! I know this is a superficial reason, but really, if it corrected upward rather than continue down, the chart would look a lot better! Wouldn't you agree?

Seriously though, I see the reverse Head and Shoulder's pattern as a real possibility right now, not as a prediction or a hope but as a possibility.

The falls are starting to lose their momentum. At the point where you see gradual arching falls, that are slower than rises, watch out! And in reverse, if you see faster falls than rises, you should also take that as a warning, as I didn't.

-update-

Looks like second shoulder formed, but has yet to break neckline.

-update-

We have little over 7 hours (until 17:00) to get the price to get above 104, for the candle on the 1d chart to become a bullish hammer.

[phoenix1]

-update-

Looks like second shoulder formed, but has yet to break neckline.

How many shoulders do you think this beast is going to have ? lol

I'm not trolling you, I just couldn't resist ... this image of quasimodo jumped into my head !

[wisscot]

Thanks for all the info!!

[mvidetto]

Obviously missed out on the point that the person driving the price down could be buying up the bitcoins on the rebounds making it seem like there is plenty of buying pressure, when in fact there isn't much buying pressure in the $100 range.  This is my opinion why this is happening, will continue to happen, and why the price will continue lower for a good while.

[lucas.sev]

Obviously missed out on the point that the person driving the price down could be buying up the bitcoins on the rebounds making it seem like there is plenty of buying pressure, when in fact there isn't much buying pressure in the $100 range.  This is my opinion why this is happening, will continue to happen, and why the price will continue lower for a good while.

I noticed the following pattern in the 110 area:

1. Let's say 600BTC is dumped, price goes down 2USD
2. This is followed by 200BTC buy which brings price back 2USD up
3. Rinse & Repeat

[Malawi]

Obviously missed out on the point that the person driving the price down could be buying up the bitcoins on the rebounds making it seem like there is plenty of buying pressure, when in fact there isn't much buying pressure in the $100 range.  This is my opinion why this is happening, will continue to happen, and why the price will continue lower for a good while.

What you often see is a bid-wall that is either removed to make the price slide further down, or are eaten into by pannick sells. As the market settles down, coins are sold back in small increments. Never trust a bid-wall.