You are fools

[Quicker_777]

For every seller thinking they have to get off the boat, there is another passenger who is saying "let me on!"

 

[zebedee]

When price goes down People say xx sold their thousands of bitcoins so price went down
Stupids, if they sold it, someone bought it too..

When price goes up, people say, someone bought thousands of bitcoins so price went high
Stupids, they bought it because someone sold them..

Now tell me why price goes up down.

Relative desperation.

Next.

[ISAWHIM]

When someone LISTS it UNDER the value, and says "I will buy it for $10 UNDER the current price"... Then someone who has those coins says, "Ok, I'll take that LOSS." Then they SELL under the market price by $10, that lowers the "Value" by $10 under market price.

If that constantly repeats, because MORE are WILLING to ACCEPT that LOSS... (Because to them, they are still gaining. Because they didn't actually earn it, or they originally got them $40 or $80 or $100 under market-price... Then you see this constant decline in value.)

That is what is happening with ASICs... They make money selling at any value over $10. However, they were kind enough to WAIT for US to keep pushing the price up. (US = those who can't accept the loss, trying to make a living, or trying to regain the money we spent on GPU rigs.)

Now, people are getting smart, and realize that the ASIC guys are simply cashing out our earned dollar, so we are also cashing out, to cut our losses, so they don't get them all. Since they are doing it anyways.

The smart thing to do is cash-out now. (Fewer see the charts going up, than those that see it going down, or the price would not keep dropping.)

Then, once the ASICs have lowered it to its value of $10, thus, now they will have LOSSES and add VALUE, by the un-received ASICs they purchased with the money they cashed-in from us... Then they will start saying, Hell no, I am not accepting $10 anymore, I need $20 now, then we start to see it rise again... But not too fast for them to keep cashing-out on us...

Eventually, once this ASIC war starts, fighting for more ASICs, and trying to beat the other guys buying ASICs... then the value WILL shoot up to $1000 per BTC, which may actually still have people interested in the coin...

You think it is going up, and don't mind waiting 6-12 months for it to rise back up to $130... then keep holding on. If not (The majority of us), then cash-out and mine alt-coins with your machines. They are rising above the value of BTC every day. The value follows the LOSSES of the MAJORITY. GPU miners are the MAJORITY, and are moving away from BTC. The few hundred people mining with major ASICs, will be all that remains mining BTC, and that will turn into three top ASIC manufactures, mining all the coins, when we STOP buying ASICs from them. Since they are ALSO producing 100x Asics for themselves, for every 1 they sell us. With our money, with our BTC they cashed out, with our LOSSES.

You can spend an alt-coin just as easy as a BTC, and those values are already settled at a low, and almost guaranteed to rise. Unlike BTC, which is about a 95% chance of crashing due to ASICs now, before it ever sees a gain. Plus, there are more coins available NOW for LESS in alt coins. With BTC, you just get less, both ways. It takes no additional effort for a marketer to add an ALT-COIN "buy/sell" button, than it did to add the BTC buy/sell buttons and gateways.

They go where the money is... and BTC for them, is a loss right now. They sell something for $100 and get 1 BTC, then by the time they wake-up, that 1 BTC can only be cashed-in for $90 or $80 or $70... so they drop it from the market. That is the OTHER reason BTC isn't going up... that "delay" of "doubt"...

Don't fall for the ASIC pump, as they try to juice the market to get more of your value from you. Let them get a loss, cash out now, while it still has some value.

[Quicker_777]

When someone LISTS it UNDER the value, and says "I will buy it for $10 UNDER the current price"... Then someone who has those coins says, "Ok, I'll take that LOSS." Then they SELL under the market price by $10, that lowers the "Value" by $10 under market price.

If that constantly repeats, because MORE are WILLING to ACCEPT that LOSS... (Because to them, they are still gaining. Because they didn't actually earn it, or they originally got them $40 or $80 or $100 under market-price... Then you see this constant decline in value.)

That is what is happening with ASICs... They make money selling at any value over $10. However, they were kind enough to WAIT for US to keep pushing the price up. (US = those who can't accept the loss, trying to make a living, or trying to regain the money we spent on GPU rigs.)

Now, people are getting smart, and realize that the ASIC guys are simply cashing out our earned dollar, so we are also cashing out, to cut our losses, so they don't get them all. Since they are doing it anyways.

The smart thing to do is cash-out now. (Fewer see the charts going up, than those that see it going down, or the price would not keep dropping.)

Then, once the ASICs have lowered it to its value of $10, thus, now they will have LOSSES and add VALUE, by the un-received ASICs they purchased with the money they cashed-in from us... Then they will start saying, Hell no, I am not accepting $10 anymore, I need $20 now, then we start to see it rise again... But not too fast for them to keep cashing-out on us...

Eventually, once this ASIC war starts, fighting for more ASICs, and trying to beat the other guys buying ASICs... then the value WILL shoot up to $1000 per BTC, which may actually still have people interested in the coin...

You think it is going up, and don't mind waiting 6-12 months for it to rise back up to $130... then keep holding on. If not (The majority of us), then cash-out and mine alt-coins with your machines. They are rising above the value of BTC every day. The value follows the LOSSES of the MAJORITY. GPU miners are the MAJORITY, and are moving away from BTC. The few hundred people mining with major ASICs, will be all that remains mining BTC, and that will turn into three top ASIC manufactures, mining all the coins, when we STOP buying ASICs from them. Since they are ALSO producing 100x Asics for themselves, for every 1 they sell us. With our money, with our BTC they cashed out, with our LOSSES.

You can spend an alt-coin just as easy as a BTC, and those values are already settled at a low, and almost guaranteed to rise. Unlike BTC, which is about a 95% chance of crashing due to ASICs now, before it ever sees a gain. Plus, there are more coins available NOW for LESS in alt coins. With BTC, you just get less, both ways. It takes no additional effort for a marketer to add an ALT-COIN "buy/sell" button, than it did to add the BTC buy/sell buttons and gateways.

They go where the money is... and BTC for them, is a loss right now. They sell something for $100 and get 1 BTC, then by the time they wake-up, that 1 BTC can only be cashed-in for $90 or $80 or $70... so they drop it from the market. That is the OTHER reason BTC isn't going up... that "delay" of "doubt"...

Don't fall for the ASIC pump, as they try to juice the market to get more of your value from you. Let them get a loss, cash out now, while it still has some value.

Wow - very well thought out - thank you for the analysis - probably spot-on!

[retro72]

When someone LISTS it UNDER the value, and says "I will buy it for $10 UNDER the current price"... Then someone who has those coins says, "Ok, I'll take that LOSS." Then they SELL under the market price by $10, that lowers the "Value" by $10 under market price.

If that constantly repeats, because MORE are WILLING to ACCEPT that LOSS... (Because to them, they are still gaining. Because they didn't actually earn it, or they originally got them $40 or $80 or $100 under market-price... Then you see this constant decline in value.)

That is what is happening with ASICs... They make money selling at any value over $10. However, they were kind enough to WAIT for US to keep pushing the price up. (US = those who can't accept the loss, trying to make a living, or trying to regain the money we spent on GPU rigs.)

Now, people are getting smart, and realize that the ASIC guys are simply cashing out our earned dollar, so we are also cashing out, to cut our losses, so they don't get them all. Since they are doing it anyways.

The smart thing to do is cash-out now. (Fewer see the charts going up, than those that see it going down, or the price would not keep dropping.)

Then, once the ASICs have lowered it to its value of $10, thus, now they will have LOSSES and add VALUE, by the un-received ASICs they purchased with the money they cashed-in from us... Then they will start saying, Hell no, I am not accepting $10 anymore, I need $20 now, then we start to see it rise again... But not too fast for them to keep cashing-out on us...

Eventually, once this ASIC war starts, fighting for more ASICs, and trying to beat the other guys buying ASICs... then the value WILL shoot up to $1000 per BTC, which may actually still have people interested in the coin...

You think it is going up, and don't mind waiting 6-12 months for it to rise back up to $130... then keep holding on. If not (The majority of us), then cash-out and mine alt-coins with your machines. They are rising above the value of BTC every day. The value follows the LOSSES of the MAJORITY. GPU miners are the MAJORITY, and are moving away from BTC. The few hundred people mining with major ASICs, will be all that remains mining BTC, and that will turn into three top ASIC manufactures, mining all the coins, when we STOP buying ASICs from them. Since they are ALSO producing 100x Asics for themselves, for every 1 they sell us. With our money, with our BTC they cashed out, with our LOSSES.

You can spend an alt-coin just as easy as a BTC, and those values are already settled at a low, and almost guaranteed to rise. Unlike BTC, which is about a 95% chance of crashing due to ASICs now, before it ever sees a gain. Plus, there are more coins available NOW for LESS in alt coins. With BTC, you just get less, both ways. It takes no additional effort for a marketer to add an ALT-COIN "buy/sell" button, than it did to add the BTC buy/sell buttons and gateways.

They go where the money is... and BTC for them, is a loss right now. They sell something for $100 and get 1 BTC, then by the time they wake-up, that 1 BTC can only be cashed-in for $90 or $80 or $70... so they drop it from the market. That is the OTHER reason BTC isn't going up... that "delay" of "doubt"...

Don't fall for the ASIC pump, as they try to juice the market to get more of your value from you. Let them get a loss, cash out now, while it still has some value.

Very smart analysis

[Spaceman_Spiff]

When someone LISTS it UNDER the value, and says "I will buy it for $10 UNDER the current price"... Then someone who has those coins says, "Ok, I'll take that LOSS." Then they SELL under the market price by $10, that lowers the "Value" by $10 under market price.

If that constantly repeats, because MORE are WILLING to ACCEPT that LOSS... (Because to them, they are still gaining. Because they didn't actually earn it, or they originally got them $40 or $80 or $100 under market-price... Then you see this constant decline in value.)

That is what is happening with ASICs... They make money selling at any value over $10. However, they were kind enough to WAIT for US to keep pushing the price up. (US = those who can't accept the loss, trying to make a living, or trying to regain the money we spent on GPU rigs.)

Now, people are getting smart, and realize that the ASIC guys are simply cashing out our earned dollar, so we are also cashing out, to cut our losses, so they don't get them all. Since they are doing it anyways.

The smart thing to do is cash-out now. (Fewer see the charts going up, than those that see it going down, or the price would not keep dropping.)

Then, once the ASICs have lowered it to its value of $10, thus, now they will have LOSSES and add VALUE, by the un-received ASICs they purchased with the money they cashed-in from us... Then they will start saying, Hell no, I am not accepting $10 anymore, I need $20 now, then we start to see it rise again... But not too fast for them to keep cashing-out on us...

Eventually, once this ASIC war starts, fighting for more ASICs, and trying to beat the other guys buying ASICs... then the value WILL shoot up to $1000 per BTC, which may actually still have people interested in the coin...

You think it is going up, and don't mind waiting 6-12 months for it to rise back up to $130... then keep holding on. If not (The majority of us), then cash-out and mine alt-coins with your machines. They are rising above the value of BTC every day. The value follows the LOSSES of the MAJORITY. GPU miners are the MAJORITY, and are moving away from BTC. The few hundred people mining with major ASICs, will be all that remains mining BTC, and that will turn into three top ASIC manufactures, mining all the coins, when we STOP buying ASICs from them. Since they are ALSO producing 100x Asics for themselves, for every 1 they sell us. With our money, with our BTC they cashed out, with our LOSSES.

You can spend an alt-coin just as easy as a BTC, and those values are already settled at a low, and almost guaranteed to rise. Unlike BTC, which is about a 95% chance of crashing due to ASICs now, before it ever sees a gain. Plus, there are more coins available NOW for LESS in alt coins. With BTC, you just get less, both ways. It takes no additional effort for a marketer to add an ALT-COIN "buy/sell" button, than it did to add the BTC buy/sell buttons and gateways.

They go where the money is... and BTC for them, is a loss right now. They sell something for $100 and get 1 BTC, then by the time they wake-up, that 1 BTC can only be cashed-in for $90 or $80 or $70... so they drop it from the market. That is the OTHER reason BTC isn't going up... that "delay" of "doubt"...

Don't fall for the ASIC pump, as they try to juice the market to get more of your value from you. Let them get a loss, cash out now, while it still has some value.

I for one don't agree with your analysis.  
Short to medium-term I am a bit bearish at the moment (but long-term bullish obviously   ), but I don't agree with your reasoning, if I understand it correctly.  My understanding is that you basically say BTC price follows mining costs.  I say its the other way around, with the exception that high mining costs (= an expensive network security) may also have an effect on price since it makes the network more secure, therefore making BTC more desirable.  

But basically high BTC prices will give miners big profits, which will lead to more people investing in miner equipment, increasing hash rate, increasing difficulty and eventually lower miner profits.  Price of BTCs or altcoins will be based on their supply and demand, as is the price of everything.  Supply is fixed, so the only variable determining price is demand for BTC.

My guess is we are still in the 'long slide down' after the bubble pop, so demand is down, combined with the fact that bitcoin is still strongly inflationary at the moment, so I am not particularly bullish now (maybe a bit oversold on the very short term), but not for the reasons you mentioned.

[firefop]

I for one don't agree with your analysis.  
Short to medium-term I am a bit bearish at the moment (but long-term bullish obviously   ), but I don't agree with your reasoning, if I understand it correctly.  My understanding is that you basically say BTC price follows mining costs.  I say its the other way around, with the exception that high mining costs (= an expensive network security) may also have an effect on price since it makes the network more secure, therefore making BTC more desirable.  

But basically high BTC prices will give miners big profits, which will lead to more people investing in miner equipment, increasing hash rate, increasing difficulty and eventually lower miner profits.  Price of BTCs or altcoins will be based on their supply and demand, as is the price of everything.  Supply is fixed, so the only variable determining price is demand for BTC.

My guess is we are still in the 'long slide down' after the bubble pop, so demand is down, combined with the fact that bitcoin is still strongly inflationary at the moment, so I am not particularly bullish now (maybe a bit oversold on the very short term), but not for the reasons you mentioned.

He got a couple of things right by accident.

Change to asic will tank the price - as difficulty is still moving up steeply, we're making coins faster than we're supposed to (adjustments every 10 - 12 days instead of ever 14). Some (probably the majority) of those miners will sell coins to get 'instant roi' on their new gear. That's round 1... once that's over some portion (probably the minority) will immediately buy more hardware and try to do it again. This cycle will repeat until the price goes down faster and faster...

But, at some point the dropping price will create enough of an roi gap that they won't want to sell immediately. This is already happening as evidenced by some of the (insane?) offerings to sell avalon machines at 10000% markups. Those guys want out and will at some point break the re-investment cycle.

The smart money is slowly buying as the price gets lower. The smart miner has already ordered all his asics and won't be cashing out immediately once he gets them... instead he'll be purchasing more mining hardware slowly over time (in a percentage equal to the difficulty increase percentage) to protect his income.

This is the real stress test of the network. If bitcoin survives the jump to asic then it's unkillable and will be here forever.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

I for one don't agree with your analysis.  
Short to medium-term I am a bit bearish at the moment (but long-term bullish obviously   ), but I don't agree with your reasoning, if I understand it correctly.  My understanding is that you basically say BTC price follows mining costs.  I say its the other way around, with the exception that high mining costs (= an expensive network security) may also have an effect on price since it makes the network more secure, therefore making BTC more desirable.  

But basically high BTC prices will give miners big profits, which will lead to more people investing in miner equipment, increasing hash rate, increasing difficulty and eventually lower miner profits.  Price of BTCs or altcoins will be based on their supply and demand, as is the price of everything.  Supply is fixed, so the only variable determining price is demand for BTC.

My guess is we are still in the 'long slide down' after the bubble pop, so demand is down, combined with the fact that bitcoin is still strongly inflationary at the moment, so I am not particularly bullish now (maybe a bit oversold on the very short term), but not for the reasons you mentioned.

He got a couple of things right by accident.

Change to asic will tank the price - as difficulty is still moving up steeply, we're making coins faster than we're supposed to (adjustments every 10 - 12 days instead of ever 14). Some (probably the majority) of those miners will sell coins to get 'instant roi' on their new gear. That's round 1... once that's over some portion (probably the minority) will immediately buy more hardware and try to do it again. This cycle will repeat until the price goes down faster and faster...

But, at some point the dropping price will create enough of an roi gap that they won't want to sell immediately. This is already happening as evidenced by some of the (insane?) offerings to sell avalon machines at 10000% markups. Those guys want out and will at some point break the re-investment cycle.

The smart money is slowly buying as the price gets lower. The smart miner has already ordered all his asics and won't be cashing out immediately once he gets them... instead he'll be purchasing more mining hardware slowly over time (in a percentage equal to the difficulty increase percentage) to protect his income.

This is the real stress test of the network. If bitcoin survives the jump to asic then it's unkillable and will be here forever.

Yes, the increase in hash rate is indeed speeding up BTC supply atm, which has a negative effect on the price.  However, if demand grew as much as it did before, that wouldn't matter.  We are still churning out less bitcoins that before the block reward halving, and we managed to keep prices stable for a long time at 50 BTCs /block.

I am also on the buying slowly as price gets lower plan    (still have the majority of my initial position though, don't want to risk being wrong on this speculation and missing the train).

My guess is bitcoin will deal/ is dealing with ASICs just fine.  Negative legislation, limited scalability and network attacks are bigger potential issues imho, which won't necessarily kill bitcoin, but could have an impact on just by how many people it will be used, and thus also price.

[junglist.massive]

if there's loud about btc in media price going up

[moiraine]

When someone LISTS it UNDER the value, and says "I will buy it for $10 UNDER the current price"... Then someone who has those coins says, "Ok, I'll take that LOSS." Then they SELL under the market price by $10, that lowers the "Value" by $10 under market price.

If that constantly repeats, because MORE are WILLING to ACCEPT that LOSS... (Because to them, they are still gaining. Because they didn't actually earn it, or they originally got them $40 or $80 or $100 under market-price... Then you see this constant decline in value.)

That is what is happening with ASICs... They make money selling at any value over $10. However, they were kind enough to WAIT for US to keep pushing the price up. (US = those who can't accept the loss, trying to make a living, or trying to regain the money we spent on GPU rigs.)

Now, people are getting smart, and realize that the ASIC guys are simply cashing out our earned dollar, so we are also cashing out, to cut our losses, so they don't get them all. Since they are doing it anyways.

The smart thing to do is cash-out now. (Fewer see the charts going up, than those that see it going down, or the price would not keep dropping.)

Then, once the ASICs have lowered it to its value of $10, thus, now they will have LOSSES and add VALUE, by the un-received ASICs they purchased with the money they cashed-in from us... Then they will start saying, Hell no, I am not accepting $10 anymore, I need $20 now, then we start to see it rise again... But not too fast for them to keep cashing-out on us...

Eventually, once this ASIC war starts, fighting for more ASICs, and trying to beat the other guys buying ASICs... then the value WILL shoot up to $1000 per BTC, which may actually still have people interested in the coin...

You think it is going up, and don't mind waiting 6-12 months for it to rise back up to $130... then keep holding on. If not (The majority of us), then cash-out and mine alt-coins with your machines. They are rising above the value of BTC every day. The value follows the LOSSES of the MAJORITY. GPU miners are the MAJORITY, and are moving away from BTC. The few hundred people mining with major ASICs, will be all that remains mining BTC, and that will turn into three top ASIC manufactures, mining all the coins, when we STOP buying ASICs from them. Since they are ALSO producing 100x Asics for themselves, for every 1 they sell us. With our money, with our BTC they cashed out, with our LOSSES.

You can spend an alt-coin just as easy as a BTC, and those values are already settled at a low, and almost guaranteed to rise. Unlike BTC, which is about a 95% chance of crashing due to ASICs now, before it ever sees a gain. Plus, there are more coins available NOW for LESS in alt coins. With BTC, you just get less, both ways. It takes no additional effort for a marketer to add an ALT-COIN "buy/sell" button, than it did to add the BTC buy/sell buttons and gateways.

They go where the money is... and BTC for them, is a loss right now. They sell something for $100 and get 1 BTC, then by the time they wake-up, that 1 BTC can only be cashed-in for $90 or $80 or $70... so they drop it from the market. That is the OTHER reason BTC isn't going up... that "delay" of "doubt"...

Don't fall for the ASIC pump, as they try to juice the market to get more of your value from you. Let them get a loss, cash out now, while it still has some value.

completely agree!

[hayek]

I think is on page one of an economic textbook, somewhere.

http://stephansmithfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Supply-and-Demand-Graph.png



Yes, someone bought those bitcoins. But if more people are selling than people are buying the price goes down. The sellers have to compete to get the highest price.

[servicehidden]

2linuxer,

You are captain!

Write more!

[polarhei]

When price goes down People say xx sold their thousands of bitcoins so price went down
Stupids, if they sold it, someone bought it too..

When price goes up, people say, someone bought thousands of bitcoins so price went high
Stupids, they bought it because someone sold them..

Now tell me why price goes up down.

Ironic that you have posted this in the Economics section yet clearly have no understanding of the Economics of any market, let alone Bitcoin.

Here is why price moves:-

New information
Uncertainty
Psychological Factors
Fear
Greed
Supply and Demand

Many people are not so stupid, just guess wrongly.

[Phinnaeus Gage]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ioVk9MeZNGg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeEqxWTz8Ls

^ What I thought of when I read the title of this thread. BTW, I enjoyed viewing for the very first time somebody's logical avatar. Fascinating!

[bitzox]

Negative legislation, limited scalability and network attacks are bigger potential issues imho, which won't necessarily kill bitcoin, but could have an impact on just by how many people it will be used, and thus also price.

This all day, for all the speculation about the cause of short term price movements they are just noise. Weather they are due to early adopters cashing out, the shift to ASICs, or increased media coverage is largely irrelevant. I feel that even over the medium term, and definitely over the long term, the above concerns will have far more impact on price and adoption than any of these more short term factors.