Report: Bitcoin to $25,000 by 2022

[jaysabi]

First, a word of warning: I think the valuation is overly optimistic, in the extreme, and I would take it with a grain of salt. May very well be a small analytics firm looking to grab some attention by making a splashy claim. That said, the report was published to the firm's paying clients, so their own credibility is on the line.

The company making the prediction is FundStrat, which describes itself as:

We are an independent research boutique, providing market strategy and sector research. Our differentiated approach is based on what we call fundamental strategy. That is, our research process combines both top-down strategy and bottoms-up fundamental views, to develop a roadmap of practical and useful investment insights for our clients.

According to FundStrat, Bitcoin is following Metcalfe’s Law, which essentially sketches out the value of a network based on how many users it has.

“If you modeled something as simple as square the number of users plus transaction value, it’s explained 94% of [Bitcoin’s price appreciation] this year,” Lee said.



Now, as for the future valuation, Tom Lee, Managing Partner of Fundstrat, put a $25,000 price target for Bitcoin by 2022 in a note to clients published earlier this year. However, and this is important, this view is predicated on cryptocurrencies displacing gold in portfolios with Bitcoin serving a “digital store of value.”

Presently, I don't see that happening. I think people using crypto as a long term store of value are taking on immense risk, and I don't see something as volatile as crypto displacing gold, which is historically a hedge against inflation and therefore done out of safety. Bitcoin is pure risk.

A $25,000 price is fun to think about, even though I don't believe it's in the cards.

[digitx]

Interesting.

All of the valuations that I see like this are based on Bitcoin capturing a certain percentage of the gold market. Long term I think its definitely possible given a 5-10% swing in market share away from gold. The other factor that noone seems to factor in is the youth effect. There are tons of kids now growing up who are learning about crypto.

Part of the reason that superhero movies do so well now is because they were marketed to kids who are now income earners in the economy. In 25-40 years if all kids are putting part of their pension in Bitcoin - its definitely a likely scenario.

I'm Hodling 

[joinfree]

Yes of course that this is very interesting to read and watch, i see tons of this predictions all over the day, and most of them are exactly the same, they all say that the price will be X thousand dollars by the end of X year, and this is a proccess that never ends, because those speculations will always exists.
But 25k by 2022 is reasonable, it is not so far away from now, i mean, it is only an increase of 5 from the actual value, and we did more than x6 during this year.

[BIG Tyrese]

First, a word of warning: I think the valuation is overly optimistic, in the extreme, and I would take it with a grain of salt. May very well be a small analytics firm looking to grab some attention by making a splashy claim. That said, the report was published to the firm's paying clients, so their own credibility is on the line.

The company making the prediction is FundStrat, which describes itself as:

We are an independent research boutique, providing market strategy and sector research. Our differentiated approach is based on what we call fundamental strategy. That is, our research process combines both top-down strategy and bottoms-up fundamental views, to develop a roadmap of practical and useful investment insights for our clients.

According to FundStrat, Bitcoin is following Metcalfe’s Law, which essentially sketches out the value of a network based on how many users it has.

“If you modeled something as simple as square the number of users plus transaction value, it’s explained 94% of [Bitcoin’s price appreciation] this year,” Lee said.



Now, as for the future valuation, Tom Lee, Managing Partner of Fundstrat, put a $25,000 price target for Bitcoin by 2022 in a note to clients published earlier this year. However, and this is important, this view is predicated on cryptocurrencies displacing gold in portfolios with Bitcoin serving a “digital store of value.”

Presently, I don't see that happening. I think people using crypto as a long term store of value are taking on immense risk, and I don't see something as volatile as crypto displacing gold, which is historically a hedge against inflation and therefore done out of safety. Bitcoin is pure risk.

A $25,000 price is fun to think about, even though I don't believe it's in the cards.

Even if we don't reach that amount half of that would be fantastic and more than double of what it is now.

[jaysabi]

Yes of course that this is very interesting to read and watch, i see tons of this predictions all over the day, and most of them are exactly the same, they all say that the price will be X thousand dollars by the end of X year, and this is a proccess that never ends, because those speculations will always exists.
But 25k by 2022 is reasonable, it is not so far away from now, i mean, it is only an increase of 5 from the actual value, and we did more than x6 during this year.

At some point the law of large numbers comes into play. It's much easier to go from 1 to 5 (a 5x increase) than it is to go from 5 to 25 (also a 5x increase). At this point, bitcoin is already worth $100 billion. Exactly 6 months ago today, it was worth 20.6 billion. So it's true we've seen about a 5x increase in about 6 months, but another 5x increase from this level will require a lot more than we've gone through this year, and more than bitcoin has gone through in its lifetime total. It seems like it took mania to get to this level. But mania is not a sustaining force over the long term in my opinion.

[cynical]

very interesting indeed and it really all depends on the amount of users for Metcalfe’s Law to take affect.
i have never heard of Metcalfe’s Law but a quick google and visit to wikipedia sorted that out.
it states:


Two telephones can make only one connection,
five can make 10 connections,
and twelve can make 66 connections.

I know the report was just a prediction but there is something or some work behind it - hopefully

[digitx]

Yeah - its a network effect that basically means the value of the network gets multiplied by itself with each new user. I don't think it strictly applies to currency given that not all people can buy the same level of Bitcoin - but if larger players get involved (like banks) then that number could grow very quickly.

[Hexah]

Yes I watch the video of it by Sarah Silverstein in the Business Insider. I can say that it really make some sense that it will reach of that price value and Tom Lee really said that bitcoin in that law is like a social media that whenever many would use bitcoin the more it will increase its value that's somehow we see nowadays and maybe even not go to that time span bitcoin would reach at that price if bitcoin would be in rapid use. I hope that prediction would be come to true so soon.

[Jovovich]

Yes I watch the video of it by Sarah Silverstein in the Business Insider. I can say that it really make some sense that it will reach of that price value and Tom Lee really said that bitcoin in that law is like a social media that whenever many would use bitcoin the more it will increase its value that's somehow we see nowadays and maybe even not go to that time span bitcoin would reach at that price if bitcoin would be in rapid use. I hope that prediction would be come to true so soon.

We could also observe that it is not just civilians are trying to adapt bitcoin. Businessmen and even  some governments are into bitcoin. I won't be shocked if the news would reach the local scenes. Because right now in my locality is not yet aware of bitcoin, that means it is not yet enough to be in the local highlights. The news also compair it to oil demand, and it is now the new goods that people are investing just to mine it.

[jekjekman]

This is considered as a prediction until bitcoin hit that amount. Yes it is indeed possible for the coin to be on that amount but the question is how long. on how market goes right now it may just take a few years and 2022 is a good year to predict with. Bitcoin's price merely depends on the demand from people who wants to have that coins. There are only a maximum of 21 million coins to be circulating the market and there are 7.6 billion people who might use it. So the earlier that more people gets into bitcoin the sooner the price will go high.

[iamMhew]

interesting topic, you got my attention op, and i think $25k is not possible for 2020 prediction even there are soon to massive dump after the fork.i think the success of bitcoin is not going to and end, and the predictions for the future of bitcoin is 50% true, not rapidly increasing but enough to increase every moment.

[Altero]

It is a long wait for that, but have possibilities to happen. Maybe that time, 80% are using crypto currencies and more establishment are accepting this as payment. Everything that happen in the future are totally  because we made it and of course the fully support of the community towards bitcoin and the crypto world.

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

One of the things I really like about this is that at least there's some kind of reasonable analysis to back up the prediction, unlike a lot of predictions I see that are just hopeful random numbers thrown around.  At the rate bitcoin has been growing, it seems like $25k might happen sooner, but of course it will continue to get harder to grow the larger it is.

[HatakeKakashi]

For me the price of 25k dollars is possible to happen but I hope we dont know when it happen. This year is 2017 and we have 5 years to reach that and I think the  percentage to happen that price is 50 percent only because for me possible price of bitcoin at 2022 is 15k upto 20k only. Because bitcoin reach the price of 10k dollars is very hard to it to increase so we need more time..

[gabbie2010]

Anyway this is just a technical analysis of the predictions  of bitcoin reaching $25,000 in 2022
Personally  I believed that the price of bitcoin is not only determined by technical analysis but also fundamentals such as high impact news, hardfork (segWit) therefore there are many of such before that year and this can make or mar the price of bitcoin but let us be optimistic that the speculations  will come to pass.

[Nameless27]

Technical analysis is not on my portfolio but predictions can vary on specific events in those years from now 2017 - 2022. What will happen? Is it legal to all country? Businesses are accepting bitcoin?. Those questions if answered between those years, I’m not exaggerating but 25000$ is at least at minimum. The risk can be lessened if those kind itf thing can be handled and favored cryptocurrency.

[mriansa]

First, a word of warning: I think the valuation is overly optimistic, in the extreme, and I would take it with a grain of salt. May very well be a small analytics firm looking to grab some attention by making a splashy claim. That said, the report was published to the firm's paying clients, so their own credibility is on the line.

The company making the prediction is FundStrat, which describes itself as:

We are an independent research boutique, providing market strategy and sector research. Our differentiated approach is based on what we call fundamental strategy. That is, our research process combines both top-down strategy and bottoms-up fundamental views, to develop a roadmap of practical and useful investment insights for our clients.

According to FundStrat, Bitcoin is following Metcalfe’s Law, which essentially sketches out the value of a network based on how many users it has.

“If you modeled something as simple as square the number of users plus transaction value, it’s explained 94% of [Bitcoin’s price appreciation] this year,” Lee said.



Now, as for the future valuation, Tom Lee, Managing Partner of Fundstrat, put a $25,000 price target for Bitcoin by 2022 in a note to clients published earlier this year. However, and this is important, this view is predicated on cryptocurrencies displacing gold in portfolios with Bitcoin serving a “digital store of value.”

Presently, I don't see that happening. I think people using crypto as a long term store of value are taking on immense risk, and I don't see something as volatile as crypto displacing gold, which is historically a hedge against inflation and therefore done out of safety. Bitcoin is pure risk.

A $25,000 price is fun to think about, even though I don't believe it's in the cards.

yeah it could happen, because if you look at recording bitcoin graphics from 2009 to 2017 now bitcoin its price more expensive, the main factor is high market demand but bitcoin availability is very limited and limited. in this world still few know about transactions and profit bitcoin. if bitcoin is getting known and everyone wants to have bitcoin bacon bitcoin will be very expensive and more expensive than current.

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

Now, as for the future valuation, Tom Lee, Managing Partner of Fundstrat, put a $25,000 price target for Bitcoin by 2022 in a note to clients published earlier this year. However, and this is important, this view is predicated on cryptocurrencies displacing gold in portfolios with Bitcoin serving a “digital store of value.”

Why do cryptos have to displace gold for this to happen?  What if some really big investors/institutions (e.g., banks, hedge funds, etc.) get involved and start buying?  Tens or hundreds of millions of dollars of direct investment could take us a long way given the limited supply of bitcoins and how much people are hoarding them.

[detector]

Well if this trend keep happening, every is possible but for somehow, it's too good to be true ,right ?
For me personally, I keep my bitcoin until next 4 year and try to sell some bits for the profit !

Who knows I become the next millionaire if bitcoin's demand still popular

[phutakami]

We can not say anything in the future, but bitcoin can reach $ 25,000 by 2022 but that is a difficult challenge.