Wanna buy KNCMiner? Prediction Data -> Time vs Hash Rate vs Difficulty Data set

[bcpokey]

Depressing stats.

I ordered a KNC yesterday with the option to pick it up in Stockholm (I live in London) -- which, hopefully hopefully, can be done when I'm in town for an international security conference in late September.

It's looking a lot like ASIC mining is a game that everyone is losing together.

That said -- there is one qualification on a positive note: with the rise of ASIC mining and the total hashing power of the network and increase in difficulty, there is also a countervailing trend that may be a source of slight optimism: if everyone is moving to ASIC, then the FPGA and GPU rigs are bowing out, and switching to other coins -- that could mean a drop of about 100 TH/s of the network, counteracting the 400-600 Th/s increase that ASIC will bring about come fall. One can hope.

GPUs probably make up only about 40TH/sec of the network. FPGAs don't really have any reason to bow out, they're not that much less efficient than ASICs. By the time they have to drop out, the amount of hashing power they represent won't even be noticed.

[polarhei]

Depressing stats.

I ordered a KNC yesterday with the option to pick it up in Stockholm (I live in London) -- which, hopefully hopefully, can be done when I'm in town for an international security conference in late September.

It's looking a lot like ASIC mining is a game that everyone is losing together.

That said -- there is one qualification on a positive note: with the rise of ASIC mining and the total hashing power of the network and increase in difficulty, there is also a countervailing trend that may be a source of slight optimism: if everyone is moving to ASIC, then the FPGA and GPU rigs are bowing out, and switching to other coins -- that could mean a drop of about 100 TH/s of the network, counteracting the 400-600 Th/s increase that ASIC will bring about come fall. One can hope.

GPUs probably make up only about 40TH/sec of the network. FPGAs don't really have any reason to bow out, they're not that much less efficient than ASICs. By the time they have to drop out, the amount of hashing power they represent won't even be noticed.

FPGA is the mother for design. Even it is failed at last, you still need to re-use the FPGA for next.
Additionally, Slow has slow usage. But not for long.

[frankenmint]

Depressing stats.

I ordered a KNC yesterday with the option to pick it up in Stockholm (I live in London) -- which, hopefully hopefully, can be done when I'm in town for an international security conference in late September.

It's looking a lot like ASIC mining is a game that everyone is losing together.

That said -- there is one qualification on a positive note: with the rise of ASIC mining and the total hashing power of the network and increase in difficulty, there is also a countervailing trend that may be a source of slight optimism: if everyone is moving to ASIC, then the FPGA and GPU rigs are bowing out, and switching to other coins -- that could mean a drop of about 100 TH/s of the network, counteracting the 400-600 Th/s increase that ASIC will bring about come fall. One can hope.

GPUs probably make up only about 40TH/sec of the network. FPGAs don't really have any reason to bow out, they're not that much less efficient than ASICs. By the time they have to drop out, the amount of hashing power they represent won't even be noticed.

FPGA is the mother for design. Even it is failed at last, you still need to re-use the FPGA for next.
Additionally, Slow has slow usage. But not for long.

My BOSH if that happens I'm takin my freicoins to the bank!!!! errm..exchange.

[Bagpipe]

In September, the difficulty will be anywhere from 80 to 180 million, and BTC price from 40 to 60 USD, and a KnC miner will be able to pay itself off in about 120 to 150 days in a bad case, basically it won't make much money after that, but get real, a very good investment pays off in 2 years, and those that pay off i 5 years are also not so common, the age of great returns on investments is definitely over.

If you don't believe me, you can ask trollbox for financial advice instead.

[sikman]

very true about the good old days are all over very soon, you best bet when buying an ASIC is that you break even, I hope I'm wrong!!

[dominicus]

Depressing stats.

I ordered a KNC yesterday with the option to pick it up in Stockholm (I live in London) -- which, hopefully hopefully, can be done when I'm in town for an international security conference in late September.

It's looking a lot like ASIC mining is a game that everyone is losing together.

That said -- there is one qualification on a positive note: with the rise of ASIC mining and the total hashing power of the network and increase in difficulty, there is also a countervailing trend that may be a source of slight optimism: if everyone is moving to ASIC, then the FPGA and GPU rigs are bowing out, and switching to other coins -- that could mean a drop of about 100 TH/s of the network, counteracting the 400-600 Th/s increase that ASIC will bring about come fall. One can hope.

I was thinking the same thing.  At the default difficulty, my bitcoins were costing above $100/BTC to mine, but I downloaded the difficulty adjustment patch, all better now.   

[k9quaint]

Figures without tables and in proportional fonts make me cry. 

[Perseus353]

Depressing stats.

I ordered a KNC yesterday with the option to pick it up in Stockholm (I live in London) -- which, hopefully hopefully, can be done when I'm in town for an international security conference in late September.

It's looking a lot like ASIC mining is a game that everyone is losing together.

That said -- there is one qualification on a positive note: with the rise of ASIC mining and the total hashing power of the network and increase in difficulty, there is also a countervailing trend that may be a source of slight optimism: if everyone is moving to ASIC, then the FPGA and GPU rigs are bowing out, and switching to other coins -- that could mean a drop of about 100 TH/s of the network, counteracting the 400-600 Th/s increase that ASIC will bring about come fall. One can hope.

I was thinking the same thing.  At the default difficulty, my bitcoins were costing above $100/BTC to mine, but I downloaded the difficulty adjustment patch, all better now.   

What is the "difficulty adjustment patch" ?

[drdops]

Depressing stats.

I ordered a KNC yesterday with the option to pick it up in Stockholm (I live in London) -- which, hopefully hopefully, can be done when I'm in town for an international security conference in late September.

It's looking a lot like ASIC mining is a game that everyone is losing together.

That said -- there is one qualification on a positive note: with the rise of ASIC mining and the total hashing power of the network and increase in difficulty, there is also a countervailing trend that may be a source of slight optimism: if everyone is moving to ASIC, then the FPGA and GPU rigs are bowing out, and switching to other coins -- that could mean a drop of about 100 TH/s of the network, counteracting the 400-600 Th/s increase that ASIC will bring about come fall. One can hope.

I was thinking the same thing.  At the default difficulty, my bitcoins were costing above $100/BTC to mine, but I downloaded the difficulty adjustment patch, all better now.   

What is the "difficulty adjustment patch" ?

I think he meant it as a joke 

[dominicus]

Depressing stats.

I ordered a KNC yesterday with the option to pick it up in Stockholm (I live in London) -- which, hopefully hopefully, can be done when I'm in town for an international security conference in late September.

It's looking a lot like ASIC mining is a game that everyone is losing together.

That said -- there is one qualification on a positive note: with the rise of ASIC mining and the total hashing power of the network and increase in difficulty, there is also a countervailing trend that may be a source of slight optimism: if everyone is moving to ASIC, then the FPGA and GPU rigs are bowing out, and switching to other coins -- that could mean a drop of about 100 TH/s of the network, counteracting the 400-600 Th/s increase that ASIC will bring about come fall. One can hope.

I was thinking the same thing.  At the default difficulty, my bitcoins were costing above $100/BTC to mine, but I downloaded the difficulty adjustment patch, all better now.   

What is the "difficulty adjustment patch" ?

I think he meant it as a joke 

I confirm, meant as a joke.  Only way to less difficulty is to switch to alternate fauxcoins. Sorry bout that.

[trdiablo]

KNCminer is also planning to release a "multi-currency" miner this year, meaning you will be able to program it and mine Litecoins and other new scrypt coins with it.

That will be more interesting to me, as I can now first wait and see if the Bitcoin miner orders come through and the company is trustworthy. If so, I will for sure order their Scrypt miner.

[Rawted]

https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-24

At KnCMiner we are aware of the service we are providing to our customers. We are also aware that we need our customers to have a return on their devices in order to purchase form us again. With the scale of the supply chains, agreements and factories we have access to, we need to be cautious we don’t ship too many devices and therefore reduce the return to our customers.  So with that in mind our plan is to do as follows:
 
We will ship no devices in December 2013, January 2014 or  February 2014. Meaning that once we have taken the difficulty up at the end of November we will not release any more hashing power for 3 months. We will then release our new generation of devices, which will begin shipping in March 2014. These devices will also have a much higher GH/$ rating than any of our current offerings.
 
We would like to state that If any of our competitors continues to add large amounts of hashing power to the network during December, January or February. We will continue to release our devices as competitively priced as we can to protect our customers share of the network.

Thanks
KnCMiner Team

Fishy situation. This has the buildings of a complete vaporware scam.

[tacotime]

As I said before, going right to 28 nm is one hell of a gamble for them.  One should recall BFL wanted to use a 65 nm process and couldn't even get it off the ground in a year, while ASICMINER on 130 nm and Avalon on 110 nm had a much shorter overall development process.

[joae1975]

Did you guys read the latest KNC news letter?
https://www.kncminer.com/news

Apparently they're not going to ship anything from Dec-Feb...as long as there's no competition.  Interesting how this is going to play out.

Thoughts?

[pyra-proxy]

As I said before, going right to 28 nm is one hell of a gamble for them.  One should recall BFL wanted to use a 65 nm process and couldn't even get it off the ground in a year, while ASICMINER on 130 nm and Avalon on 110 nm had a much shorter overall development process.

I'm rooting for them because its a primary factor in how long a life these miners will have.  Avalon lifespan will be short but they won the profitability game by being first to market, the next game is performance per watt per btc and 3 brands seem to be aiming high for that knc, bitfury and ?avp?

In hindsight being an early adopter with bfl fpga singles ended up hurting my pocket book..... 

[trdiablo]

you all assume to break even with the miner based on the current BTC price.

But with the BTC difficulty sky rocketing the value of BTC will also (again) skyrocket, so you can make a big profit with these ASICs.
Who knows what the value of BTC will be in 1 or 2 years from now? 200$ ? 1000$ ? 2000$ ?

[frankenmint]

you all assume to break even with the miner based on the current BTC price.

But with the BTC difficulty sky rocketing the value of BTC will also (again) skyrocket, so you can make a big profit with these ASICs.
Who knows what the value of BTC will be in 1 or 2 years from now? 200$ ? 1000$ ? 2000$ ?

ermmm no to the 1000+ prices...too many will dump their coins around 500 bucks and the greed alone will make a new bubble crash it could happen but it would be a long term upward spiral trend filled with bubbles.

(but hey...maybe I'm just being a FUD spreader that doesn't want people to buy into mining to postpone the diff. spikes right?)

[brishtiteveja]

Bitcoin Network pretty much followed the 25% average difficulty increase table. In fact more than that.

[RoadStress]

Just 2 quotes:

KNCMiner Jupiter(350GH/s)

and

20-Dec   15.00%   193,126,788    1,382,455,395,327,760    0.036456872   0.018228436

On 21 Dec the difficulty was

Dec 21 2013    1,180,923,195    30.01%    8,453,378 GH/s

[izaa12]

https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-24

At KnCMiner we are aware of the service we are providing to our customers. We are also aware that we need our customers to have a return on their devices in order to purchase form us again. With the scale of the supply chains, agreements and factories we have access to, we need to be cautious we don’t ship too many devices and therefore reduce the return to our customers.  So with that in mind our plan is to do as follows:
 
We will ship no devices in December 2013, January 2014 or  February 2014. Meaning that once we have taken the difficulty up at the end of November we will not release any more hashing power for 3 months. We will then release our new generation of devices, which will begin shipping in March 2014. These devices will also have a much higher GH/$ rating than any of our current offerings.
 
We would like to state that If any of our competitors continues to add large amounts of hashing power to the network during December, January or February. We will continue to release our devices as competitively priced as we can to protect our customers share of the network.

Thanks
KnCMiner Team

Fishy situation. This has the buildings of a complete vaporware scam.

Very damn fishy, if you ask me.  I've talked to Knc a few times about issues (there weren't issues in actuality) i had been having with my Saturn and they were completely dismissive... makes me not wnat to deal with them at all.