niko
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June 18, 2013, 08:20:39 PM |
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if you look back the history of BTC mining, the price of BTC is related to mining difficulty.
I did look back, carefully, many times. I even applied cross-correlation algorithms. I even corrected the data for technology leaps from CPU to GPU to ASIC. Mining difficulty mostly follows price, not the other way around. Google search volume mostly follows price, not the other way around. What price follows, in order of importance, is (1) chaos, (2) insider trading and information, (3) paid and orchestrated media campaigns as part of pump'n'dump attempts As I clearly explained in my previous post, miners absolutely cannot play any significant role in exchange rates. The numbers are rock solid. So, what is you though about ASICs? are they really does has any positive impact on price ? what I thought is this time is different, because CPU or GPU to stop mining are not any cost issue lock them to do so ,but as I stated ASIC are totally different concept , you can't use CPU or GPU to judging that ASICs will has the same impact as those two. In fact, that since last time price drop we will see a steady build up through time, Again, people are buying BTC instead of mining. the only thing we need to discuss is whether BTC will continue maintaining people's trust. if it does, then the question will be very clear, if price below profit level, miner will continue mining , but not selling. My argument is related either no bad news and no good news ,everything is remains the same.. the join ASIC will secure the price of BTC and with a positive impact. Yes, ASICs are obviously different from (im)provisional mining hardware that has some use and value outside of Bitcoin ecosystem - although, do not ignore the heat that ASICs create - in certain regions you could recoup some of the heating cost by mining... I cannot, however, come up with any specific connection with bitcoin exchange rates. I tried hard, believe me. Emergence of ASICs simply indicates that Bitcoin has become important enough to warrant development of dedicated hardware and mining firms. Still, so do the sex toys, fishing equipment, and amateur astronomy - not that big of a deal in the larger perspective. What you should focus on is the total investment of the mining industry. That is an important indicator, as that is what ultimately secures the network and shows the level of confidence in Bitcoin. ASICs got people excited, and it seems that total value of mining equipment today is higher than ever before. That is the good sign. The next good sign after ASICs will be the start of an arms race, and emergence of closed-source, proprietary ASIC farms operated by mining companies. This will also spell an end to mining as a profitable hobby we do at our homes. I speculate that this will start happening once the price enters the $800-$1,200 region (if ever). Again, all these developments are mostly driven by price - they don't drive the price to any significant extent.
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They're there, in their room. Your mining rig is on fire, yet you're very calm.
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Buffer Overflow
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June 18, 2013, 08:24:42 PM |
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Someone said, that the increased difficulty make it happen, that less coins are produced every day, is that true ?
No. The system adjusts difficulty automatically so a block is found approx every 10 minutes. Give or take.
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SOSLOVE868 (OP)
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June 18, 2013, 10:43:54 PM |
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if you look back the history of BTC mining, the price of BTC is related to mining difficulty.
I did look back, carefully, many times. I even applied cross-correlation algorithms. I even corrected the data for technology leaps from CPU to GPU to ASIC. Mining difficulty mostly follows price, not the other way around. Google search volume mostly follows price, not the other way around. What price follows, in order of importance, is (1) chaos, (2) insider trading and information, (3) paid and orchestrated media campaigns as part of pump'n'dump attempts As I clearly explained in my previous post, miners absolutely cannot play any significant role in exchange rates. The numbers are rock solid. So, what is you though about ASICs? are they really does has any positive impact on price ? what I thought is this time is different, because CPU or GPU to stop mining are not any cost issue lock them to do so ,but as I stated ASIC are totally different concept , you can't use CPU or GPU to judging that ASICs will has the same impact as those two. In fact, that since last time price drop we will see a steady build up through time, Again, people are buying BTC instead of mining. the only thing we need to discuss is whether BTC will continue maintaining people's trust. if it does, then the question will be very clear, if price below profit level, miner will continue mining , but not selling. My argument is related either no bad news and no good news ,everything is remains the same.. the join ASIC will secure the price of BTC and with a positive impact. Yes, ASICs are obviously different from (im)provisional mining hardware that has some use and value outside of Bitcoin ecosystem - although, do not ignore the heat that ASICs create - in certain regions you could recoup some of the heating cost by mining... I cannot, however, come up with any specific connection with bitcoin exchange rates. I tried hard, believe me. Emergence of ASICs simply indicates that Bitcoin has become important enough to warrant development of dedicated hardware and mining firms. Still, so do the sex toys, fishing equipment, and amateur astronomy - not that big of a deal in the larger perspective. What you should focus on is the total investment of the mining industry. That is an important indicator, as that is what ultimately secures the network and shows the level of confidence in Bitcoin. ASICs got people excited, and it seems that total value of mining equipment today is higher than ever before. That is the good sign. The next good sign after ASICs will be the start of an arms race, and emergence of closed-source, proprietary ASIC farms operated by mining companies. This will also spell an end to mining as a profitable hobby we do at our homes. I speculate that this will start happening once the price enters the $800-$1,200 region (if ever). Again, all these developments are mostly driven by price - they don't drive the price to any significant extent. I might think too simple, but I still believe that ASICs will secure the price anyway.. may be you are right , this question is very difficult to be proving, since price is related to too many factors and no one can tell exactly impact of those factors on price.
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SOSLOVE868 (OP)
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June 18, 2013, 10:46:54 PM |
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Someone said, that the increased difficulty make it happen, that less coins are produced every day, is that true ?
No. The system adjusts difficulty automatically so a block is found approx every 10 minutes. Give or take. I thought it will be decrease, so only after approximately 4 years time the system will change mining coin per day?
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johnyj
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June 19, 2013, 01:29:58 AM |
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Price is just a lagging indicator. First come demand, then comes people who want to get coin, then they will evaluate the different approach of acquiring coin: Mining vs Buying
If price is too high, they will invest in mining devices; if difficulty is too high, they will buy directly
Price itself can also become a deciding factor when it rises very fast, but when price dropped, no one stop mining, since the long term projection is always positive due to limited supply
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johnyj
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June 19, 2013, 04:09:49 AM |
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Ever since May 2011, the mining factor are constantly low, even with the price spike above $250, it never reached 2011 high, now again all the GPU miners are mining at a loss ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fblockchained.com%2Fchart_large_log.png&t=665&c=JIrfRVA2NvXNgQ)
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gizmoh
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June 19, 2013, 08:27:16 AM |
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IMO difficulty is irrelevant to price.I believe the contrary will happen: many gpu miners ordered asics with hefty investments. They will need to recoup their investments once equipment starts producing, hence increase selling pressure. Presently, More and more btc are in the hands of few asic companies and they will want to hedge the price, so hoarding for long term is not an option for them.They will sell regularly and dump more as soon as there is a big rise. Example: Avalon chips order nearing 75,000 btc ( https://blockchain.info/address/1FGAftzSTztFSB8LMwsrdCKTyqGY6zr3sU ) Some Units for customers mined by Avalon 7,500 btc and probably cashed:( https://blockchain.info/address/18d3HV2bm94UyY4a9DrPfoZ17sXuiDQq2B) Proof here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=236348.0
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How Ripple Rips you: "The founders of Ripple Labs created 100 billion XRP at Ripple's inception. No more can be created according to the rules of the Ripple protocol. Of the 100 billion created, 20 billion XRP were retained by the creators, seeders, venture capital companies and other founders. The remaining 80 billion were given to Ripple Labs. Ripple Labs intends to distribute and sell 55 of that 80 billion XRP to users and strategic partners. Ripple Labs also had a giveaway of under 200 million XRP (0.002% of all XRP) via World Community Grid that was later discontinued.[29] Ripple Labs will retain the remaining 25 billion"
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coinnewb
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June 19, 2013, 09:35:22 AM |
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Ever since May 2011, the mining factor are constantly low, even with the price spike above $250, it never reached 2011 high, now again all the GPU miners are mining at a loss
Not all GPU miners are mining at a loss - it depends on what they pay for electricity.
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johnyj
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June 19, 2013, 11:38:36 AM |
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IMO difficulty is irrelevant to price.I believe the contrary will happen: many gpu miners ordered asics with hefty investments. They will need to recoup their investments once equipment starts producing, hence increase selling pressure.
Anytime, the price is affected by the selling of quick profiters vs buying of long term investors. Short term profiters will sell the coin as soon as they made some fiat profit, Long term investors usually have a plan to move part of their existing fiat asset into bitcoin and hold it for many years. I believe that many of the early adopters are hardcore longterm investors, these people drive the long term trend of bitcoin, and that's the reason difficulty is always related to price long term wise When price dropped too low or difficulty raised too high and GPU mining can not cover the electricity cost, some of them with high electricity cost will shut down the rig and just buy bitcoin direct from exchange, and that has an effect of lower difficulty and raise the exchange price, thus put some balance between difficulty and price
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HappyBitCoinUser
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June 21, 2013, 02:30:27 AM |
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If no government intervention or other related bad news in the future
I'm also hoping Santa is real cause I want some Christmas presents this year!
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Buffer Overflow
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June 21, 2013, 04:18:25 AM |
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Someone said, that the increased difficulty make it happen, that less coins are produced every day, is that true ?
No. The system adjusts difficulty automatically so a block is found approx every 10 minutes. Give or take. I thought it will be decrease, so only after approximately 4 years time the system will change mining coin per day? Yes, block reward halves every 210,000 blocks. (Approx 4 years.) But that has nothing to do with the difficulty.
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crazy_rabbit
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RUM AND CARROTS: A PIRATE LIFE FOR ME
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June 21, 2013, 06:55:53 AM |
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well it will probably depress the price first.
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more or less retired.
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