Coming ASICs device will further increase the price of BTC.

[niko]

if you look back the history of BTC mining, the price of BTC is related to mining difficulty.

I did look back, carefully, many times. I even applied cross-correlation algorithms. I even corrected the data for technology leaps from CPU to GPU to ASIC. Mining difficulty mostly follows price, not the other way around. Google search volume mostly follows price, not the other way around.

What price follows, in order of importance, is
(1) chaos,
(2) insider trading and information,
(3) paid and orchestrated media campaigns as part of pump'n'dump attempts

As I clearly explained in my previous post, miners absolutely cannot play any significant role in exchange rates. The numbers are rock solid.

So, what is you though about ASICs? are they really does has any positive impact on price ?
what I thought is this time is different, because CPU or GPU to stop mining are not any cost issue lock them to do so ,but as I stated ASIC are totally different concept , you can't use CPU or GPU to judging that ASICs will has the same impact as those two. In fact, that since last time price drop we will see a steady build up through time, Again, people are buying BTC instead of mining. the only thing we need to discuss is whether BTC will continue maintaining people's trust. if it does, then the question will be very clear, if price below profit level, miner will continue mining , but not selling.

My argument is related either no bad news and no good news ,everything is remains the same.. the join ASIC will secure the price of BTC and with a positive impact.

Yes, ASICs are obviously different from (im)provisional mining hardware that has some use and value outside of Bitcoin ecosystem - although, do not ignore the heat that ASICs create - in certain regions you could recoup some of the heating cost by mining...
I cannot, however, come up with any specific connection with bitcoin exchange rates. I tried hard, believe me.
Emergence of ASICs simply indicates that Bitcoin has become important enough to warrant development of dedicated hardware and mining firms. Still, so do the sex toys, fishing equipment, and amateur astronomy - not that big of a deal in the larger perspective.

What you should focus on is the total investment of the mining industry. That is an important indicator, as that is what ultimately secures the network and shows the level of confidence in Bitcoin. ASICs got people excited, and it seems that total value of mining equipment today is higher than ever before. That is the good sign.

The next good sign after ASICs will be the start of an arms race, and emergence of closed-source, proprietary ASIC farms operated by mining companies. This will also spell an end to mining as a profitable hobby we do at our homes. I speculate that this will start happening once the price enters the $800-$1,200 region (if ever). Again, all these developments are mostly driven by price - they don't drive the price to any significant extent.

[Buffer Overflow]

Someone said, that the increased difficulty make it happen, that less coins are produced every day, is that true ?

No. The system adjusts difficulty automatically so a block is found approx every 10 minutes. Give or take.

[SOSLOVE868]

if you look back the history of BTC mining, the price of BTC is related to mining difficulty.

I did look back, carefully, many times. I even applied cross-correlation algorithms. I even corrected the data for technology leaps from CPU to GPU to ASIC. Mining difficulty mostly follows price, not the other way around. Google search volume mostly follows price, not the other way around.

What price follows, in order of importance, is
(1) chaos,
(2) insider trading and information,
(3) paid and orchestrated media campaigns as part of pump'n'dump attempts

As I clearly explained in my previous post, miners absolutely cannot play any significant role in exchange rates. The numbers are rock solid.

So, what is you though about ASICs? are they really does has any positive impact on price ?
what I thought is this time is different, because CPU or GPU to stop mining are not any cost issue lock them to do so ,but as I stated ASIC are totally different concept , you can't use CPU or GPU to judging that ASICs will has the same impact as those two. In fact, that since last time price drop we will see a steady build up through time, Again, people are buying BTC instead of mining. the only thing we need to discuss is whether BTC will continue maintaining people's trust. if it does, then the question will be very clear, if price below profit level, miner will continue mining , but not selling.

My argument is related either no bad news and no good news ,everything is remains the same.. the join ASIC will secure the price of BTC and with a positive impact.

Yes, ASICs are obviously different from (im)provisional mining hardware that has some use and value outside of Bitcoin ecosystem - although, do not ignore the heat that ASICs create - in certain regions you could recoup some of the heating cost by mining...
I cannot, however, come up with any specific connection with bitcoin exchange rates. I tried hard, believe me.
Emergence of ASICs simply indicates that Bitcoin has become important enough to warrant development of dedicated hardware and mining firms. Still, so do the sex toys, fishing equipment, and amateur astronomy - not that big of a deal in the larger perspective.

What you should focus on is the total investment of the mining industry. That is an important indicator, as that is what ultimately secures the network and shows the level of confidence in Bitcoin. ASICs got people excited, and it seems that total value of mining equipment today is higher than ever before. That is the good sign.

The next good sign after ASICs will be the start of an arms race, and emergence of closed-source, proprietary ASIC farms operated by mining companies. This will also spell an end to mining as a profitable hobby we do at our homes. I speculate that this will start happening once the price enters the $800-$1,200 region (if ever). Again, all these developments are mostly driven by price - they don't drive the price to any significant extent.

I might think too simple, but I still believe that ASICs will secure the price anyway..
may be you are right , this question is very difficult to be proving, since price is related to too many factors and no one can tell exactly impact of those factors on price.

[SOSLOVE868]

Someone said, that the increased difficulty make it happen, that less coins are produced every day, is that true ?

No. The system adjusts difficulty automatically so a block is found approx every 10 minutes. Give or take.

I thought it will be decrease, so only after approximately 4 years time the system will change mining coin per day?

[johnyj]

Price is just a lagging indicator. First come demand, then comes people who want to get coin, then they will evaluate the different approach of acquiring coin: Mining vs Buying

If price is too high, they will invest in mining devices; if difficulty is too high, they will buy directly

Price itself can also become a deciding factor when it rises very fast, but when price dropped, no one stop mining, since the long term projection is always positive due to limited supply

[johnyj]

Ever since May 2011, the mining factor are constantly low, even with the price spike above $250, it never reached 2011 high, now again all the GPU miners are mining at a loss

[gizmoh]

IMO difficulty is irrelevant to price.I believe the contrary will happen: many gpu miners ordered asics with hefty investments. They will need to recoup their investments once equipment starts producing, hence increase selling pressure.
Presently, More and more btc are in the hands of few asic companies and they will want to hedge the price, so hoarding for long term is not an option for them.They will sell regularly and dump more as soon as there is a big rise.
Example:
 Avalon chips order nearing 75,000 btc ( https://blockchain.info/address/1FGAftzSTztFSB8LMwsrdCKTyqGY6zr3sU )
 Some Units for customers mined by Avalon 7,500 btc and probably cashed:(https://blockchain.info/address/18d3HV2bm94UyY4a9DrPfoZ17sXuiDQq2B)
 Proof here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=236348.0  

[coinnewb]

Ever since May 2011, the mining factor are constantly low, even with the price spike above $250, it never reached 2011 high, now again all the GPU miners are mining at a loss

Not all GPU miners are mining at a loss - it depends on what they pay for electricity.

[johnyj]

IMO difficulty is irrelevant to price.I believe the contrary will happen: many gpu miners ordered asics with hefty investments. They will need to recoup their investments once equipment starts producing, hence increase selling pressure.

Anytime, the price is affected by the selling of quick profiters vs buying of long term investors. Short term profiters will sell the coin as soon as they made some fiat profit, Long term investors usually have a plan to move part of their existing fiat asset into bitcoin and hold it for many years. I believe that many of the early adopters are hardcore longterm investors, these people drive the long term trend of bitcoin, and that's the reason difficulty is always related to price long term wise

When price dropped too low or difficulty raised too high and GPU mining can not cover the electricity cost, some of them with high electricity cost will shut down the rig and just buy bitcoin direct from exchange, and that has an effect of lower difficulty and raise the exchange price, thus put some balance between difficulty and price

[HappyBitCoinUser]

If no government intervention or other related bad news in the future

I'm also hoping Santa is real cause I want some Christmas presents this year!

[Buffer Overflow]

Someone said, that the increased difficulty make it happen, that less coins are produced every day, is that true ?

No. The system adjusts difficulty automatically so a block is found approx every 10 minutes. Give or take.

I thought it will be decrease, so only after approximately 4 years time the system will change mining coin per day?

Yes, block reward halves every 210,000 blocks. (Approx 4 years.) But that has nothing to do with the difficulty.

[crazy_rabbit]

well it will probably depress the price first.