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Author Topic: Bitcoin should be at $13,500 ?  (Read 6615 times)
AquaMan
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June 14, 2013, 05:37:49 AM
 #1

http://techcrunch.com/2013/06/02/calculating-the-long-term-value-of-a-bitcoin/

Interesting, make your own argument...
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suryc
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June 14, 2013, 06:00:51 AM
 #2


Just to clarify, if you read that article it says that there is a 10% chance that 1btc will be worth $13,500 in 10 years time. And that is after they make a bunch of assumptions.

Also, there "interactive calculator" is not working at the moment, so I can't even see how they came up with the $13,500.

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AquaMan
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June 14, 2013, 06:05:24 AM
 #3


Just to clarify, if you read that article it says that there is a 10% chance that 1btc will be worth $13,500 in 10 years time. And that is after they make a bunch of assumptions.

Also, there "interactive calculator" is not working at the moment, so I can't even see how they came up with the $13,500.
Yea, 1% chance itll succeed, $1350, 100% chance of succeeding, $135,000. Can only hope itll be true one day, calculator works fine for me.
tutkarz
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June 14, 2013, 06:19:34 AM
 #4



Bitcoins are coming down, and the clones (alt coins) will go up.

There is no limited supply of 'bitcoins' and all it takes is copy and paste, and can create lots of coins.



said creator of altcoins Wink

WinVery.com
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June 14, 2013, 06:24:02 AM
 #5



Bitcoins are coming down, and the clones (alt coins) will go up.

There is no limited supply of 'bitcoins' and all it takes is copy and paste, and can create lots of coins.



c++ disagrees.
BitBank
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June 14, 2013, 06:30:12 AM
 #6



Bitcoins are coming down, and the clones (alt coins) will go up.

There is no limited supply of 'bitcoins' and all it takes is copy and paste, and can create lots of coins.



said creator of altcoins Wink

^^^^^  Cheesy
AquaMan
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June 14, 2013, 07:29:30 AM
 #7

lol... yes, thanks for the laugh...
dave111223
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June 14, 2013, 08:22:13 AM
 #8



Bitcoins are coming down, and the clones (alt coins) will go up.

There is no limited supply of 'bitcoins' and all it takes is copy and paste, and can create lots of coins.



Thanks for the tip, I just copied and pasted myself 10 million bitcoins...time to party
naphto
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June 14, 2013, 09:19:09 AM
 #9

Quote
it has lots of great properties — negligible transaction fees (...)


Bullshit.
My credit card is free of charge for me (as a customer), I don't give a shit if the merchant have to pay an American company for providing this service. But I know, and I care, that everywhere in the country I can use it, without paying any fee. Bitcoins fees are way too high.
naphto
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June 14, 2013, 09:22:56 AM
 #10

The article does not into account the whole picture


+ the main argument should not be based on stupid assumption like "the bitcoin market should represent xxxx in the future", but "how much an average human being is willing to pay for 1 bitcoin?".


Considering a 10 % chance of loosing it all, does anyone will be willing to spend 13.5 k usd for that? Not even close...
AliceWonder
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June 14, 2013, 09:23:27 AM
 #11

Quote
it has lots of great properties — negligible transaction fees (...)


Bullshit.
My credit card is free of charge for me (as a customer), I don't give a shit if the merchant have to pay an American company for providing this service. But I know, and I care, that everywhere in the country I can use it, without paying any fee. Bitcoins fees are way too high.

Oh with credit cards you pay the fees, it's just not separated out of the item cost in most cases.

Historically anyway merchants were not allowed to charge less for cash, many wanted to.
Now some actually do.

QuarkCoin - what I believe bitcoin was intended to be. On reddit: http://www.reddit.com/r/QuarkCoin/
CanadianGuy
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June 14, 2013, 09:25:33 AM
 #12

The article does not into account the whole picture


+ the main argument should not be based on stupid assumption like "the bitcoin market should represent xxxx in the future", but "how much an average human being is willing to pay for 1 bitcoin?".


Considering a 10 % chance of loosing it all, does anyone will be willing to spend 13.5 k usd for that? Not even close...


You're assuming people would be dealing with entire bitcoins regularly. what's wrong with a satoshi
awsww
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June 14, 2013, 09:33:55 AM
 #13

I think this will happen in 100 years.
suryc
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June 14, 2013, 09:35:38 AM
 #14

Quote
it has lots of great properties — negligible transaction fees (...)

Bullshit.
My credit card is free of charge for me (as a customer), I don't give a shit if the merchant have to pay an American company for providing this service. But I know, and I care, that everywhere in the country I can use it, without paying any fee. Bitcoins fees are way too high.

Bitcoins fees are not too high. Whether or not you realize it you are indirectly paying a fee every time you use your credit card.
Merchants pay credit card fees that average around 2.5-3% of the transaction and that cost is passed on to the consumer (you're kidding yourself if you think it isn't). That's why more and more merchants offer cash discounts.
Bitcoin fees are negligible compared to that. .0001 btc on a .1btc transaction is only 0.1%
All that is needed is an easy method for mainstream implementation.

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naphto
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June 14, 2013, 09:37:31 AM
 #15

The article does not into account the whole picture


+ the main argument should not be based on stupid assumption like "the bitcoin market should represent xxxx in the future", but "how much an average human being is willing to pay for 1 bitcoin?".


Considering a 10 % chance of loosing it all, does anyone will be willing to spend 13.5 k usd for that? Not even close...


You're assuming people are going to want an entire bitcoin.. what's wrong with a satoshi


That's about human psychology.
Why the top was about 250 usd a few weeks ago? Because 250 is 1/4 of one thousand usd. That's why ... People understood that it was overestimated. It could have been 500 or 1 000 as well.

You can find 1 guy stupid enough to pay 1 000 usd for 1 btc, but not enough people to maintain the price that high.
Bitcoin was not designed to be used for anything else that it is now:
- wannabe-traders-willing-to-make-money
- negligible trades (for drugs, geeks, or money laundering)
naphto
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June 14, 2013, 09:46:50 AM
 #16

Bitcoins fees are not too high.

If my credit card would charge me any fee higher than bitcoin I would agree with that.
But considering the fact that the fee with my credit card is 0, I disagree.

Whether or not you realize it you are indirectly paying a fee every time you use your credit card.

I don't. My bank does not charge me anything for providing me a credit card, and using it. Mercants do.
Not to mention that if my credit card got stolen, I can get my money back. If my btc address is stolen, I can't do shit.

Merchants pay credit card fees that average around 2.5-3% of the transaction and that cost is passed on to the consumer (you're kidding yourself if you think it isn't).

The only restriction I have is to pay more than 10 euros with my credit card (else I have to use cash). But the price is the same if I pay with check, credit card, cash, so...

That's why more and more merchants offer cash discounts.

See above.
Not to mention that I can withdrawn cash without being charged any fee.
Not to mention that before paying anything with btc, you have to buy them, and the fees are even greater than btc transaction fee.

Bitcoin fees are negligible compared to that. .0001 btc on a .1btc transaction is only 0.1%
All that is needed is an easy method for mainstream implementation.

That's bullshit again.
Some website said they accept bitcoin, like that "DigiDeals" in Australia. When you want to pay online, guess what:

Quote
Credit or Debit Card (2% processing fee)
  
PayPal (2% processing fee)
  
Bank Transfer
  
Bitcoin (5% processing fee)



Bitcoin fees will always be higher that credit card fees.
Try to figure out why by yourself.
semaforo
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June 14, 2013, 09:57:45 AM
 #17



You can find 1 guy stupid enough to pay 1 000 usd for 1 btc, but not enough people to maintain the price that high.
Bitcoin was not designed to be used for anything else that it is now:
- wannabe-traders-willing-to-make-money
- negligible trades (for drugs, geeks, or money laundering)

   Don't forget that it can revolutionize global remittance market, really can be used effectively for tax evasion, can be used to cheaply move around international sanctions in big markets like Iran, and can provide a hedge against inflation in countries like Sudan, where inflation is at 30%, and the black market exchange rate for the dollar is nearly double the official rate.

  I believe Mr. Nakamoto had a paradigm changing disruptive technology in mind that could completely change the political and economic landscape of the planet when bitcoin was designed. The global remittance market is over $500 billion right now. Bitcoin offers substantial efficiency gains in speed and ease of transfer. If bitcoin captures 1% of this market then bitcoin market cap will increase to 6 billion, with each bitcoin being worth $545. For credit cards in countries with built up payment infrastructure, maybe you as a consumer can see charges associated with electronic payments as the sellers problem. If you trust the banks, including your country's central bank.
   And do you think in a country where monthly income per capita is around $300 dollars, and then one family starts getting a payment from a family member working in Sweden for $550 a month through BTC exchanges instead of the $510 a month they were getting with Western Union, do you really think their neighbors are just going to ignore this and keep using Western Union?


  Get real, speculators. You're in a new dimension now. Newtonian laws do not apply in quantum or relativistic space. Welcome to hyperspace.
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June 14, 2013, 10:06:05 AM
 #18

Bitcoins fees are not too high.

If my credit card would charge me any fee higher than bitcoin I would agree with that.
But considering the fact that the fee with my credit card is 0, I disagree.

Whether or not you realize it you are indirectly paying a fee every time you use your credit card.

I don't. My bank does not charge me anything for providing me a credit card, and using it. Mercants do.
Not to mention that if my credit card got stolen, I can get my money back. If my btc address is stolen, I can't do shit.

Merchants pay credit card fees that average around 2.5-3% of the transaction and that cost is passed on to the consumer (you're kidding yourself if you think it isn't).

The only restriction I have is to pay more than 10 euros with my credit card (else I have to use cash). But the price is the same if I pay with check, credit card, cash, so...

That's why more and more merchants offer cash discounts.

See above.
Not to mention that I can withdrawn cash without being charged any fee.
Not to mention that before paying anything with btc, you have to buy them, and the fees are even greater than btc transaction fee.

Bitcoin fees are negligible compared to that. .0001 btc on a .1btc transaction is only 0.1%
All that is needed is an easy method for mainstream implementation.

That's bullshit again.
Some website said they accept bitcoin, like that "DigiDeals" in Australia. When you want to pay online, guess what:

Quote
Credit or Debit Card (2% processing fee)
  
PayPal (2% processing fee)
  
Bank Transfer
  
Bitcoin (5% processing fee)



Bitcoin fees will always be higher that credit card fees.
Try to figure out why by yourself.
Someone on the bitcointalk forum who doesn't support bitcoin/altcoin 100%? Burn him at the stake!
naphto
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June 14, 2013, 10:23:44 AM
 #19

Someone on the bitcointalk forum who doesn't support bitcoin/altcoin 100%? Burn him at the stake!


Being here does not forbid/prevent from using your brain  Roll Eyes
naphto
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June 14, 2013, 10:28:29 AM
 #20

  And do you think in a country where monthly income per capita is around $300 dollars, and then one family starts getting a payment from a family member working in Sweden for $550 a month through BTC exchanges instead of the $510 a month they were getting with Western Union, do you really think their neighbors are just going to ignore this and keep using Western Union?


How the hell would bitcoins be able to reduce those fees?
If you want to buy btc with kroners, you have to convert kroner to usd first (or euros), and then convert usd (or euros) into bitcoins.
You will get charged:
(1) by your bank for converting kroners.
(2) by mtgox for converting usd.



But, if you find a reliable way to convert kroner => btc and btc => usd, maybe you can save money.
But at which price? Too much of a hassle compared with the easiest way: international wire.


So, yes, it could save money, but not likely to be used by most of the world population.
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